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Eurasian Pivot? Moscow Expects "Progress" From Tsipras Visit
As Athens prepares to try and convince eurozone creditors that its latest set of proposed reforms represents a credible attempt to address Greece’s fiscal crisis, and as Greek depositors face the very real possibility that they will soon be Cyprus’d, a leverage-less Alexis Tsipras faces a rather unpalatable choice: bow to the Troika which “wants real reforms… meaning that Greece finally has to implement some/any of the long ago promised and never delivered redundancies in the government sector,” or to quote Credit Suisse, be “digitally bombed back to barter status.” Unfortunately for the Greek populace, the latter seems to be far more likely than the former. Here’s WSJ:
Greek proposals for a revised bailout program don’t have enough detail to satisfy the government’s international creditors, eurozone officials said, making it more likely that Athens will need to go several more weeks without a new infusion of desperately-needed cash…
“The proposals were piecemeal, vague and the Greek colleagues could not explain technically what some of them actually implied,” a eurozone official said. “So, let’s hope that they present something more competent next week.”
Senior eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference on Wednesday to discuss the situation, officials said. But they said it is highly unlikely eurozone ministers will meet before mid-April to release more money for Greece. That means Athens will have to scrape together cash to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month and make a €460 million debt repayment to the IMF on April 9.
As a reminder, here are two charts which demonstrate the urgency of the situation:
Despite what is unquestionably a rather dire outlook, Athens does have one card it has yet to play, because as we noted last week, “once the first week of April comes and goes and Greece officially runs out of money, it will go to anyone who can provide it with the funds needed to avoid civil war, even if that means switching its allegiance from Europe to the Eurasian Economic Union, something Russia is eagerly looking forward to, and something we predicted would be the endgame months ago.” With the Tsipras/Putin meeting now just a little over a week away, you can bet that Moscow will not squander an opportunity to procure a bit of leverage over Europe in the face of an increasingly contentious situation in Eastern Ukraine. In fact, Moscow is calling Tsipras’ visit a “big event” and has indicated that any request for financial assistance would be “examined.” Here’s more via ekathimerini:
“We are certain that the Greek prime minister’s working visit to Moscow will be a big event for our bilateral relations,” said Russian ambassador Andrey Maslov. “The possibility of further cooperation in trade, energy, technical military issues, education and culture will be examined.”
Maslov said that any request from Athens for a loan would have to be “examined very carefully” because of Greece’s euro membership. “If the Greek government submits a request for a loan, it will be examined – as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after meeting his counterpart Nikos Kotzias and as Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said,” the Russian ambassador told Kathimerini.
Maslov played down the possibility of Moscow lifting the embargo on food imports from Greece or other European Union countries as long as the EU keeps its sanctions on Russia in place. However, the ambassador praised Athens for helping prevent a rift in the EU’s relations with Russia.
“We are grateful for Greece’s efforts in helping ease the tension in relations between Russia and the EU, which is mainly due to the sanctions,” he said. “The stance of our Greek partners and other EU member-states during the council of foreign ministers in January and at the EU leaders’ summit in February prevented the hawks... from creating a permanent rift in Russia-EU relations.”
This may indeed represent an opportunity for Moscow to conduct a quasi-annexation-by-loan (as opposed to by force) and besides, any money funneled to Greece will ultimately end up back in Moscow anyway because any cash Athens manages to scrape together to pay the IMF is essentially diverted straight to Kiev which as we’ve said before, “is just as broke as Greece, and needs to pay Gazprom yesterday to keep gas deliveries coming, with Gazprom promptly remitting the funds into Putin's personal money vault.”
We’ll leave you with the following from ekathimerini:
“Pressures on Greek bank deposits have continued in March, with sector officials estimating that households and enterprises have withdrawn a net 3 billion euros in the first weeks of this month.”
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The Russians just love to play the spoiler. Who wouldn't want to tickle the Empire beast and make him howl?
<Of course it's not nice to fool mother nature father Empire.>
putin's gonna have us on our backs and kneeling on our arms while dangling a big ol' snot-ball over our face.
whatever happen , pls, make it quick, it's not sustainable.
people will not wait decades to make adjustment anyway, especially with war at europ's door.
So the Greeks are getting into bed with the Russians.
So many butt secs jokes.
Bitchez always need some sugardaddy to maintain their lifestyle. What else would you expect from their newly elected politicos.
There's no desire for Greek independence and their own drachma, that takes work and pride, let them go from being euro bitchez straight to rubles and russian occupation. that should end well.
"Unfortunately bombed back to barter status?" My god, if only! We should be so lucky in the US.
Yep . . . those Greeks are lazy bastards & socialists.
That's all we hear on the 'news'. They did this to themselves.
Banksters may have something to do with it, but it's the Greek character that's to blame.
This could never happen in the good ole' USA - even though half the population depends on some kind of government check. There's socialist 'health care' and central planners completely control money & there are no real 'markets' anymore.
But, at least we're # 1 in arrogance, hubris, and bullshit !
No one is blaming the Greeks, Mr exceptional. It's their politicians, Socialist govs throughout the west are going bankupt. They can't fulfill their promises of gov handouts. The US no different.
I know, I know. You prefer Dick Cheney's.
De gustibus non est disputandum
If you don't have guns
pick an ally who has guns
lots and lots of guns
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com
Man, the Russkies would not want to be tied to this tar baby unless it came with military facilities...
The Greeks won't leave the EU unless backstopped by Russia/China. This is a golden opportunity for Russia/China to start dismantling Western institutions starting with driving a wedge into the EU. I think the reason for Putin's recent disappearing act was to meditate on this decision as it has a real possibility of being the Franz Ferdinand moment. But in the end it must be done.
Greek debts don't matter as the slates will soon be wiped clean one way or another.
"I think the reason for Putin's recent disappearing act was to meditate"
No, he never did anything of the sort. Putin never disappeared. His agenda was posted every bloody day on the Kremlin website, with the corresponding pictures.
It was a case of somebody, somewhere, starting a rumor, which triggered a media stampede.
Nobody even checked the Kremlin website. The Russians were rolling on the floor.
A lot like the Bee Gee's "I started a joke (which started the whole world laughing)"
I thought the rumor where he was poisoned by polonium Beluga particularly inventive.
He was out of public view for at least a few days, probably meditating at Valaam.
http://www.storyleak.com/is-president-putin-the-victim-of-yet-another-ci...
Win-win. Sub base on Santorini and destroy western banks w a default. Biggest no brainer in geopolitical history
Santorini? Would that not be like putting a naval base on Anak Krakatao?
Yes agreed.
If Greece were to somehow remain EU while there are no Greek taxes being paid and Greece country unravels, then the only Greek terminal condition would be a ghost country and then the EU takes all the ports, resources and land from the Greek 'government' and people, and Greece dissolves; to be replaced by some EU "Club Greekmed". Think Caligula...maybe a huge Las Vegas style brothel or casino.
There appears to be two distinct Greek forward paths at this time:
1. as-is Greece eventually dissolves within the EU, paying off debts by land and complete EU ownership of remaining assets.
2. Asia Infrastructure Bank.
agreed
and that 'last resort support' probably was set into motion before the Greek election, contingent on Syriza's victory.
As far as his disappearing act goes, no doubt he meditated on Greece amongst Russia's other moves.
Who knows, maybe he is like most other men his age and has a bad back?
Nah, too ordinary.
I would expect that any new creditor to Greece, would require that Greece first default its current debt. I think it is somewhat rediculous to say that the money that Greece pays goes to Ukraine and then to Russia. The money Greece pays is nothing compared to all the money being printed overtly by the ECB and covertly by the US. The bankers certainly don't need Greece's money to finance their war in Ukraine or to keep Ukraine's heart pumping a while longer.
Definitely. Why would Russia give money to Greece to pay European banks back?
Putin can play this hand with the PIIGS and win either way.
An easy play for Putin.
PIIGS ? Hand? Youll'be blind to the end. Us europeans just hate (!!!!!) the bloody brits and their minons, the yanks, you may all go to hell !!!!!
Any money (Rubles only) that Russia lends to Greece will be on a condition that the money goes to the Greek people (civil servants and pensioners). Not the IMF or other banksters.
"..on a condition that the money goes to the Greek people (civil servants and pensioners)."
LOL! You must believe in unicorns. I see you have no idea why the Greek gov is going bankrupt. It can't afford the civil servants and pensioners it already has.
Greece seeking closer cooperation with Russia in the defence sector too
Today, now, March 29, officially game on. We live in interesting times. Wow.
Greek, Russian Energy Ministers to Meet on March 29-30
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150328/1020151394.html
This is simply posturing to improve their negotiating position.
Please stop saying "pivot". People turn to, machines pivot.
Don't dehumanize the language. Thanks.
Dancers pivot. Is dance not a good metaphor for what is going on?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CxMKEx6bZo
Dancers pirouette more often than they "pivot". Basketball players pivot, which means they have a machine-like way of spinning, a bit like a weather vane.
For people behaving like people, I'd rather have "turn to".
Speaking in stereotyped words (like that "pivot" you keep meeting in the media) only drains the language of its life. Are we sure we need even less humanity?
Lea: Basktball players pivot, they aren't machines; you are incorrect.
I'm a down vote.
Judo has a pivot, which probably appropriate given Putin's Judo interests. To throw down an opponent.
Tenkan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenkan
Nice and easy.... Italy and France on the wings, just waiting... bye bye yanks !
Yes. And prior pre-EU International France has many times had dealings with Russia and parts of Asia.
Pivot ?
And of course those dumbass in the EU will let that happen.
Greece can´t threaten the with an alliance with Russia. Russia doesn´t have any money.
The Chinese have money. But what can Greece offer in return?
My conclusion: Greece has a very poor bargaining position.
Not true.
1. Greece goes Ruskie.
2. All prior Greek debts delared null and void by Greece.
3. Russia defends Greece, politically, economically, and militarily if necessary.
4. All of Greece's creditors including IMF, ECB, etc...get stiffed.
done.
Greece is then Russia's new vassal state.
Russia would never or could never be held responsible or accountable for the Greek debts, unless there was an EU or NATO military response...doubtful ?
You can´t leave the Eurozone without leaving the EU. And if Greece leaves the EU Greece will probably no longer receive subsidies from the EU. And Russia can´t afford to subsidize Greece. China may be able to afford it, but what would they get in return?
But if Greece leaves the EU I guess they can get some protection from Russia and China. And if Greece defaults on debts to Western creditors I guess that China could see to that the Greek banking system works.
The EU subsidies are offset by export losses (400 million 2014 and I estimate 1 billion 2015) caused by the russian sanctions against the EU. Leaving the EU behind would therefore not deteriorate the financial position of Greece.
Greece receives about $10 billion in EU subsidies annually. I´m not sure whether Greece has reached the point when not servicing the debt would be a more favourable solution than not receiving EU subsidies.
Furthermore, the Greek voters feel that they are entitled to EU subsidies. So it is probably very hard for Greek politicians to exit the Eurozone and the EU. The electorate won´t appreciate that.
Oh, you seem to think 'the money' is real ?
The stuff they create with computer keystrokes ?
They have a poor bargaining position only if they believe in the box in which they hold their thinking.
Figures are only published with some delay but not long ago Russia had more reserves than US and Germany combined. And government debt was only 13% of GDP. I keep asking myself where people get this conviction that Russia is bust. Probably because they read to much stuff from Bloomberg. Another question is why Russia should loan to Greece. I think that would be absurd. Why would Russia help the EU by loaning money to Greece? It seems to be a silly idea. It would only make sense upon Greece leaving the Euro zone or at least dropping the Euro the latter maybe combined with a veto against the EU sanctions against Russia. The veto might have some value for Russia against which they are willing to give some money. However without a new currency Greece is never going to make it and I assume the Russians are well aware of this. The new Greek government seems to be lost. Otherwise they had dropped the poisonous EURO already.
ignorant post
media dumb you down much?
Believing your own BS doesn't make it true.
Do your homework before spouting.
"Russia has less than $700 million in debt, the US has over $18 trillion; Russian debt is about 15% of GDP, the US runs at over 100% of GDP; Russia runs a budget surplus, the US runs a burgeoning deficit; Russia has gold to back its currency, the US now only has the military to back its fiat and increasingly widely shunned “dollar;” Russia has the largest natural resources in the world, the US has depleted or ruined most of its natural resources. With which of these two countries does the rest of the world want to conduct business?"
Michael Noonan
http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-nothing-is...
Xecellent stuff, get the Russians on side asap
Xecellent stuff, get the Russians on side asap
yes yes come to daddy
Why has Greece been fooling around with the EU anyway? Haven't they been plundering Greece for years now in the guise of lending a financial hand? Repudiate all their debt owed to the European banks and Greece is instantly in a much more manageable position. The Russians haven't looted anyone lately as far as I know, and will be grateful to Greece for being the first to head for the exit.
Agreed, the Russians will be pleased to have an ally in the Med anyway with plenty of offshore gas and oil to come and nice big ports to park their ships. If I were running Greece I would be talking to the Russkies bigtime. The ruble would not be a bad currency to use anyway and then join the AIIB. Let's just kick ass and stop pussying around.
Greece should just print their own Euros, whether Brussells likes it or not. Then print more Euros to pay for the Greek Euro Bonds that are needed - so its all nice an tidy. Thusly monetizing the freshly minted debt, just like the Big Boys do it. Don't ask. Just do it. And pay off every red cent starting Monday, with all the freshly sanitized 'Hellenic Bank of Euroland' bucks now magically at their disposal. How's this any different than what Mario Draghi is doing?
What would they do? As I understand it, there is no means to kick any country that is in the EU, out of the EU, without 100% agreement from every member, including Greece. Yes, I know this is ridiculous, but the chaos would be a thing to behold, and the farce of fractional banking fully exposed for all to see.
Money talks and bull$hit walks.
So as NATO crumbles in line with the toilet paper €urodollah collapse, Greek is the first to the fire escape.
There is no way Russia offers Greece serious financial assistance unless the banksters and Troika eat a large part of the old debt.
From the Bundesbank (the way it is *supposed to work*) :
TARGET2 is a payment system that enables the speedy and final settlement of national and cross-border payments in central bank money. http://www.bundesbank.de/Navigation/EN/Tasks/Payment_systems/TARGET2/TAR...
But the Greeks aren't exactly "speedy" anymore, and this is one handy way to run up their bar tab.
And in other news - don't look now but the EU deposit guarantee "system", if you can call it that, is now showing itself to be just PR:
[google translate from Deutsch] "With 1.5 billion euros, the new deposit insurance is, however, far from the deposits that usually has to be protected. The amount comprises just 0.8 percent of the Austrian savings. The collapse of the Bulgarian Bank Corp. this case had already become reality: The [insurance fund] could not repay the full amount of the deposit. Seen in the implementation of the EU Directive is an adaptation to reality: Even today are government assertions that savings be sure, a pure PR number. "
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/03/30/es-wird-ernst-oest...
In short, Run Greekies, Run!!!
[Excuse me, there is somebody knocking in my door, selling nail guns...]
Good one, Abbe, I wonder how well 'covered' we are in UK? It's all smoke & mirrors; but why am I so surprised? After all I read ZH so I need not remain in the dark....everyone should listen to Tyler - keep up the promotions lads!