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Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock"
With a no longer “patient” Fed set for “liftoff” sometime this year, some observers (including IMF chief Christine Lagarde) are bracing for emerging market turbulence. A new paper from the Center for Global Development attempts to discern which EMs are most vulnerable to an “external shock” (be it geopolitical or financial) and also seeks to determine which countries are more prepared to weather a storm now than they were pre-crisis. According to the study, the relevant factors are 1) current account balance, 2) ratio of external debt to GDP, 3) ratio of short-term external debt to reserves, 4) fiscal balance to GDP, 5) government debt to GDP, 6) inflation versus targeted inflation, and 7) financial “fragility”.
From the study:
The values of the indicator for 2007 and 2014 are presented as well as the country rankings in both years. According to this methodology, the greater the value of the indicator the more resilient a country’s macroeconomic performance to external shocks is assessed to be.
And here’s The Economist, simplifying things a bit further:
How resilient are emerging-market economies? Many are struggling, thanks to the economic impact of a strong dollar. But what would happen if things suddenly got a lot tougher? A new paper, from Liliana Rojas-Suarez of the Centre for Global Development, a think-tank, offers some interesting data.
Let’s imagine that something really bad happens. The Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy too soon; some new global debt crisis begins; Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ms Rojas-Suarez wants to understand which emerging-market economies are most vulnerable.
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Argentina looks good, let's start a zero hedge fund and invest it all in Argentina.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBCUCJNWimo
well.. the deflation delimma is a large one... # being the dollar crushing exporters.. but we all know this.. question is how long and how far will the dollar go UP?
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/01/rethinking-europes-deflation-dilemma...
Why is Israel always the leading country "Insulated" from black swans yet rumoured to have caused them?
jews are AWESOME!
Israel can always draw on a US, EU rescue fund, no matter what.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com
If I could quintuple down arrow your post I would
That's why the emerging markets (Russia) works with the West to raise all boats right?
U.S. Russian Education Innovation Program (USRIC) Startups Meet In Wash D.C.
U.S. State Dept. Program Sends Researchers to Russia For Wetlands Study
Russia’s New Startup City ‘Tek!’ Comes to Silicon Valley to Recruit
Russia’s Roman Abramovich Invests $15M In Texas Propell Technologies (Fracking)
Renault’s Russian Lada Division Takes Over Crimeas Auto Market
Wall E - La Vie En Rose Scene
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aq85Yb25Pk (3:13)
Will the coincidences never stop?!
All the negative countries are on the border of Russia!!
STRATFOR: US-Hauptziel seit einem Jahrhundert war Bündnis Russland+Deutschland zu verhindern
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaL5wCY99l8 (12:52)
George Friedman, "Europe: Destined for Conflict?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeLu_yyz3tc (1:12:30)
I couldn't believe it, but he (Friedman*) said it:
"The biggest fear for the US in the last 100 years, was the collaboration between Germany and Russia. They are the only ones who could threaten us, if working together."
* Peaceman in English.
I hear ya. What are the odds, eh? So, just who is the Center for Global Development? Well, Larry Summers is the Chairman. Methinks there is a good chance they are just a propaganda mill.
"All the negative countries are on the border of Russia!!"
Looks like the strategy "become a NATO hooker, become rich"-strategy didn't work out for all those Russia-hating, Oligarch-infested, a-historical shitheaps such as Ukraine and Georgia.
Neither Myanmar nor Vietnam are represented here in Asia. WTH these are the 2 countries I'm living in and doing business!
Myanmar Especially, I am very curious about.
Thoughts Anyone?
Proud to be in the list of toppers . But here (India) everybody seems to oblivious (except me) and say Economy going great guns under New PM (Modi). All Local Business Channels say "BTFD".
The Sensex has been going wild, I am afraid it is also getting overvalued.
Central planners love charts, graphs, tables, numbers, formulae...anything but real observation of real people...
Where are the biggest criminals on that list? Wall Street and Brussels?