Dallas Fed Collapses At Fastest Pace Since Lehman, Lowest Since June 2011

Tyler Durden's picture

Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher had his credibility (whatever is left) crushed for the 4th month in a row. After explaining carefully to no lessor status quo glad hand than Steve Liesman that the Texas economy will see a net positive from low oil prices, Dallas Fed data has utterly collapsed - at its fastest pace since Lehman. Printing a stunning -17.5 (over twice as bad as expected -8.5), this is the 4th miss in a row (and increasingly worse misses). The Dallas Fed was last lower than this in Jun 2011. Across the board, the components were an utter disaster... employees contracted, prices paid and recoeved tumbled, production plunged, and new orders collapsed. More worryingly, furture capex tumbled once again.




A reminder... low oil pries are net positive to the Texas economy... Liesman and Fisher....

*  *  *

Who could have seen this coming?


Charts: Bloomberg

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duo's picture

Just as my house was worth as much as it sold for in 1985 (which was substantially more than what I bought it for in 1996).  Of course property tax rates have doubled since the '80s.

Osmium's picture

Somewhat off topic, but since you brought up doubling of property taxes.  I have seen many properties that consist of marginal land where you are not allowed to build coming up for sale lately.  My guess is these are hunting properties that the owners can not afford 2k a year in property taxes.

thecrud's picture
thecrud (not verified) duo Mar 31, 2015 6:26 AM

To me to change the tax rate of home at any time other than its sale is theft.

If you rase the tax you are taxing me on what you think it is worth if I sell it.

Or the future price you think it will sell.

And if it misses those marks you dont give a rebate.

No you should only tax a home whenit sell so you dont tax old people out of their home or dont tax people over 65 on their primary home.

Like you taxed thos men out of there hunting land you know they were doing the state a favor killing those hogs.

Now they will eat more on crops than you gained in property tax.

101 years and counting's picture

future capex?  who the fuck cares about capex.  give us the buybacks that are purchased with brand-spanking new debt that will double the interest expense for cash flow starved corps. yeee-fucking-hawwwwwww!!!

B2u's picture

Fuck you Fisher.  Filthy LIAR.  Oh...fuck you LIESman.

orangegeek's picture

If the Fed influences rates up, the USD will rocket and crush earnings even more.


The other question is that if the USD is seen as a safe have, why would the US government pay higher rates to issue their debt?


Answer?  They wouldn't.


Fisher is just lying again - talking his book - higher rates moves bonds lower and gives the Fed the bonds to buy that they desparately need.


In short, Fischer and the Fed are market makers.  Brutal.

Bell's 2 hearted's picture

re the existing home sale index ... econoday sums up nicely:


"Year-on-year, pending home sales, which are defined as contract signings for existing homes, are up a robust-looking 12.0 percent which is a 6th straight increase. But this is misleading as many deals fall through. Final sales of existing homes, in data posted last week, are up only 4.7 percent year-on-year." 

ChargingHandle's picture

It is about the optics not the data. 

Comte d'herblay's picture

You didn't factor in the gawddamned WEATHER!!!!

Iam Yue2's picture


"Reuters - Sales tax receipts in the thriving oil town of Midland, Texas, fell this month, only the second decline in five years and one of the first signs of how low oil prices are beginning to ripple beyond oil company bottom lines and into the wider economy."





Bell's 2 hearted's picture

still laughing at pepsi naming dick fisher to board of directors ... THE DAY AFTER fisher quit dallas FRB ... keep an eye out for this tool to cash in further with corporate amerika

aliki's picture

just setting the table for firing back-up the QE train. fucking roche motel. i can hear the idiotic keynsians now (just like rick moranis in spaceballs

"see, we can't stop the QE ... its too dangerous ... we've got to slow down first!!!"

if i were rick moranis around these keynsians, the line would read:

"im surrounded by assholes!!!"

Temporalist's picture

This recovery thingy ain't what it used to be.

ejmoosa's picture

Enough with the comparisons on the back end of the recession.  Where does this fall as we headed into the laset recession?  How much time do we have before the bottom falls out?

Less than 12 months is my estimate.




PTR's picture

I'm going with the Shemitah thing in September.




*Basically the stage is being set during 2015 for “The Greatest Show on Earth” that will actually take place in 2016, which happens to be the Chinese Year of the Fire Monkey. Nevertheless, 2015 promises to provide its own series of spectacles which are a part of the necessary setup. The September/October time frame will likely present a captivating ‘trailer’ to the highly anticipated 2016 spectacular. The key dates marking the Shemitah Jubilee, in particular, offer an accurate timing of things to come. Accordingly, the economic and financial realms, headquartered in New York City and the City of London, will be the site of the opening acts of this Greatest Show — EVER — on Earth.

Bell's 2 hearted's picture

texas will crater further when O signs deal with iran ... and its oil embargo lifted

venturen's picture

you mean stock buybacks(with debt) don't increase revenue? Who knew.

Meremortal's picture

How did Texas survive June, 2011 when the index was even lower?

Probably Texas survived the same way it has survived every other energy downturn since 1920.






KansasCrude's picture

The FED  hit the money printer keyboard and off went the malinvestment is Office Space (see Houston),  Fracking Shale for Oil and Gas (see shale plays and fracking plays in Texas), and they revved up the Real Estate market with ZIRP, and finally they played the College enrollment  Debt card.  Probably none of which had been done since 1920..... Next act who the heck knows.  Oh and dont't forget all the new Texans courtesy of Meheco and other states i.e. California.


Texas has been one of the few growth engines since 2008, that is in process of a 180 degree change.  It will be  beyond ugly on the way down....Not just lost jobs, and contraction but lots of financial defaults to fire it up.

thetruthhurts's picture

Bullish for new  Barista and Bartenders jobs

firewolfsblog's picture

I doubt that this has anything to do with the fact that Texas is just the front porch of Mexico

firewolfsblog's picture

I doubt that this has anything to do with the fact that Texas is just the front porch of Mexico

Shizzmoney's picture

Looks like Dick left just in time. 

The rats are running off of the Titanic!

Spungo's picture

lol net positive. Can you believe these people? They literally believe unemployed people spend MORE than oil workers. 

valley chick's picture

Well somehow this has to be bullish! What a farce this casino has become. 

zilztrain's picture

What a coincidence... that chart is exactly the same as the S&P / "since lehman" mentions chart.

stormsailor's picture

bullish,  buy the chasm

NoWayJose's picture

Richard Fisher is a Dick.

PTR's picture

"since Lehman."


Youri Carma's picture

Slowing U.S. economy is inconvenient truth http://www.marketwatch.com/story/slowing-us-economy-is-inconvenient-trut...

- Fed Now Sees Only 0.2% GDP Growth In Q1 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-25/fed-now-sees-only-02-gdp-growth-q1

- Atlanta Fed Forecast for Real Q1 GDP Growth 0.6% http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/q1-gdp-expectations-are-crashing

– JPM Cuts Q1 GDP Again From 2.5% to 2.0%
– US Economic Data Is Having Its Worst Year Since At Least 2000
– Kansas Fed Plunges To 2-Year Lows, New Orders Crash
– Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses To 2-Year Lows
– February Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index Drops to Negative 0.11
– Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator Revised Drastically Lower
– Chicago In Fiscal Free Fall After Latest Downgrade
– Philly Fed Index Unexpectedly Edges Down To 5.0 In March
– Philly Fed Signals Worst Margin Compression Since Lehman
– Philly Fed Suffers Worst Run In 3 Years, All Sub-Indices Collapse


The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate for January 2015 is 23.2%
One in five U.S. children now rely on food stamps: Census data
Labor Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 38 Year Low of 62.7%
U.S. Productivity Falls 2.2% In Q4
Business Deaths Exceeds Number of Business Births For the First Time Since 1977

China new-job creation slows sharply: official
Japan Unemployment Rate Rises In January
Japan's Sharp to cut 6,000 jobs in global restructuring
South Korea Unemployment Rises Unexpectedly In February
South Korea Unemployment Rate Rises Unexpectedly In January
There Are a Lot More Jobless South Koreans Than You Think
Malaysia Unemployment Rate Rises In January
Malaysia Unemployment Rate Rises In December
Australia's unemployment rate jumps in January
Australia Unemployment Rate Jumps To 6.4% In January
Suburb With 27% Jobless Shows Danger of Australian Recession

German SAP to Reduce More Than 2,000 Jobs in McDermott’s Second Cut
Dutch Unemployment rose For The Fourth Consecutive Month!
Poland Jobless Rate Rises As Expected In January
Hungary November To December Jobless Rate Rises
Norway Unemployment Rate Rises Unexpectedly In January
Sweden Jobless Rate At 11-Month High
Ericsson to Cut as Many as 2,200 Swedish Jobs to Lower Costs
Finland Unemployment Rate Climbs More Than Expected In February
Finland’s February Jobless Rate Jumps to 10.1% Last Month - More Than Estimated
French Unemployment Rises In February
French joblessness rises to 10.4%
Spain Unemployment Rises In January
Italy Unemployment Rises to New High of 13.4%
Portugal Q4 Unemployment Rate Rises
Greek unemployment rises
Turkey Unemployment Rate Rises For Second Month
Turkey's unemployment rises in November
RBS to cut up to 14,000 jobs in investment banking unit

More: WORLD ECONOMY COLLAPSING!!! - HEADLINES MARCH 2015 http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=247239.msg1509972#msg1509972