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Goldman's "Excel Fat Finger" - Says Earlier GDP Estimate Was A Mistake, Lowers Q1 GDP Tracking To Just 0.8%
Back in 2014, Goldman's Jan Hatzius was proud to announce he anticipated the US economy growing solidly in 2015, at a so-called "above consensus" pace, somewhere in the 3%-3.5% range. Then, a few months ago, the same Goldman strategist unabashedly declared that the US economy would grow by 3% in Q1.
Then... it snowed, leading to the worst economic contraction for the US economy since, well, last winter. It snowed then too, but nobody could possibly anticipate it snowing two years in a row.
And, earlier today, after the BEA's latest report that US consumer failed to spend as much as expected for yet another month (meaning spending contracted during both the gas price-plunge phase and the subsequent rebound), Goldman came out with this.
- As a result of the weaker-than-expected spending numbers, we reduced our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to +1.2%.
Not surprising: we said as much would happen a month ago when we first reported that much to the shock of the world, the Atlanta Fed itself was expecting a 1.2% GDP growth in Q1. Since then, the Atlanta Fed has crushed its own forecast and now expects only 0.2% growth.
Which probably explains why Goldman "accidentally" suffered an excel fat finger, and moments ago Hatzius' subordinate, David Mericle, was trotted out to advise Goldman's clients that the firm had a glitch with its earlier GDP forecast, and what it meant to revise Q1 GDP to was 33% lower, not from 1.2% but 0.8% (down from 1.4% previously, and down from 3.0% two months ago).
To wit:
We made an error in our original estimate of the GDP tracking implications of the February PCE report. We have now reduced our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +0.8%. We regret the mistake.
Or, just like last year!
How one can "mistake" a GDP estimate by 33% based on a personal spending number missing consensus and Goldman estimates by a tiny 0.1% is unclear but is also irrelevant. What is abundantly clear is that nobody at Goldman, the Fed, or anywhere else, has any idea how to estimate economic growth in a world in which all the data is fabricated and goalseeked, and where not one but two "harsh winters" in a row can subtract over $100 billion in trendline economic growth.
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Silly muppets...
The only thing that Excels at GS is the partners compensation.
People, PEOPLE! This is why we have a daily memo of what numbers to publish to the public. Get the memo. Read the memo. Publish the number. Do not wander off the reservation with your own estimates or you may be dropped from the distribution list. And then nobody will listen to you any more, aside from those idiots on Zero Hedge.
Silly Muppets. Seasonals are for Kids
"We have now reduced our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +0.8%. We regret the mistake."
Fuck, Goldman....you better watch it! Your credibility may be on the line at some point
Why do economics degrees even exist? A random number generator can do the job of these "experts".
I have a degree in economics. And I'm not really sure. Whatever you say, no matter how idiotic or counter-intuitive, they nod their head and think "Gee, I guess he's really smart." Then they leave you alone to run a bank or something.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
Drum roll please....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f4oJ-DQdSY
"accidently".... We accidently bent some people over and went full porkies on them......
Some Marecellus Wallace action going on.
pods
DOH!
lol bullish
Aww c'mon, it's just an honest mistake! It happens all the time...*snigger*
Translation: -6.2% Subtract 7 from what ever the CBO says. Nuff said.
if a muppet makes a mistake they see prison, wall street bonuses
"We're incompetent."
The balls on these guys ..
one of their goyim junior analysts will be packing boxes soon...
It will be a quicker fix to make it -0.8% next time (and closer to the truth).
"Why don't you knock it off with them Negative Waves! Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here. Why can't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change"
- Oddball (Kelly's Heroes 1970)
We know who Oddball is working for now, don't we?
"We got our own ammunition, it's filled with paint. When we fire it, it makes... pretty pictures!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IatwoA00E0
Damn, they are just begging Old Yellen for MOAR QE
come on guys, give goldman a pass here. how are they supposed to know that there is a possibility of snow in the midwest and northeast when temps r around the 30s for a good portion of the winter?
whats next, u going to tell me i should expect 80 and 90 degree temperatures in the summer ?
Right -and how could anyone ever have known in 2008 the housing market was in a bubble that would pop or that deadbeats with poor credit, no assets and no jobs would default on subprime loans?
The stinkin' stock market people have just done and gone smooth crazy.
let's wait a crush soon
And how much is it without hookers etc?
But the Goldman prop traders made a killing. Seems they suspected growth was more like 0.2% than 1.2%. . . . so it's all good.
"error" = "forgot to add the insider data"
let's guess next year snow winter is unexpected?
Just like last year...and yes the year before that even as well (when the natty dropped below two bucks.)
Step right up folks!
Prices only move in one direction...MY DIRECTION!
right- no fucking way you can have snow 3 years in a row.
Ha, is anyone surprised?!
At this rate of Fat Finger Events (FFE), soon university kids will be able to claim an FFEs on their Final Exams.
And certainly on a GS Entrance Exam. It's what a TRUE Goldmanite prospect would do. Mazel tov!
p.s. Being 'old school', an FFE is something I'd do with Mrs Kirk. ;-) ;-)
calculation skills for milion dollar bonus
Jee thanks... I guess that makes everything okay. BTFMHP. "Buy The Fucking Moe Howard Put"...
All that unexpected cold winter weather made someone's finger swell.
"You see we made a very small mistake in our excel spreadsheet and marked these $50 billion in loans as sales."
Sorry for our error, Love Dick Fuld
"You see we made a very small mistake in our excel spreadsheet and marked these $50 billion in loans as sales."
Sorry for our error, Love Dick Fuld
What was it at the start of the year for Q1 - 2.8%?
Hatzius is the master of the downgrade - it is in fact all he does. That, and tells us that the world is going to be saved by the consumer and deluge of capex. Well done Jan.
It's going to be a lot easier once the financial world adopts the 'Uniform Memory Hole' method of spot on predictions and estimates.
Why should an esteemed firm like Goldman Sachs have to come crawling back into the barnyard to apologize to the animals every time they miss a number?
Google and Wikipedia were designed especially to help 'get it right.'
"whats in your wallet"?