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After Saudis Deny "Need To Send Ground Troops To Yemen", Is Invasion Imminent?
With Decisive Storm airstrikes showing no signs of abating, and with some reports suggesting that as many as 40 people were killed when bombs struck a refugee camp near Haradh, many suspect the violence in Yemen is set to escalate meaningfully in the days and weeks ahead with Saudi Arabia preparing to launch a ground invasion in the expanding effort to debilitate the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who toppled the US-supported Yemeni government.
The bombing raids by the Saudi-led coalition have persisted for five consecutive days in Sanaa and al-Hodeidah where air strikes targeted anti-aircraft installations. The Yemeni foreign minister denied that the coalition was responsible for the death of refugees and instead placed the blame on rebel artillery fire.
Via Al Arabiya:
Yemen’s foreign minister blamed Iranian-allied Houthi fighters for an air strike on a camp for displaced people and refugees in northern Yemen that killed at least 45 people on Monday, denying any link to Saudi-led military operations.
Riyadh Yaseen was speaking to reporters in the Saudi capital Riyadh. He said the explosion on the camp was not from Arab coalition forces but by “artillery strikes” by the Shiite Muslim Houthis.
Meanwhile, in what is perhaps the surest sign that a ground invasion is in fact in the offing, the Saudis are out saying there’s currently no need to put boots on the ground:
#BREAKING: Saudi-led coalition spokesman: No current need to send ground troops to #Yemen http://t.co/mhNcLhJztF
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) March 31, 2015
And as CNN notes, a ground war with the Houthis is likely to be an arduous, bloody affair that could further imperil Saudi Arabia’s southern border:
But if the coalition takes the fight to the ground in Yemen, the consequences could be severe. Houthis are battle-hardened guerrilla fighters and could cross into Saudi Arabia. They've already threatened suicide bomb attacks inside Saudi Arabia…
Saudi Arabia and Egypt have both talked about the possibility of putting boots on the ground. On Saturday, Yemeni Foreign Minister Riyadh Yaseen said he expected coalition troops to be in Yemen within days.
Saudi leaders have said that if troops do go in, they won't leave until they have degraded the Houthis' ability to fight. The Houthis are apt guerrillas. A fight on the ground could prove bloody and lengthy.
Unfortunately, it now appears that this “bloody and lengthy” conflict just got a little closer to becoming reality as Reuters reports that Houthi rebels have gained access to a military base at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the 4th largest oil-shipping chokepoint in the world. As CNN notes, “that passage that is the only access from the Arabian Sea to Egypt's Suez Canal.”
Here’s more via Reuters on the rebels' advance...
Fighters from Yemen's Houthi militia on Tuesday entered a coastal military base overlooking the Red Sea's strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, local officials told Reuters.
Soldiers of the 17th Armoured Division in the Dabab district in Yemen's southwestern Taiz province opened the gates to the Houthis, whose military advance has been challenged by six days of Saudi-led air strikes.
Yemen's Houthi rebels enter coastal military base on Bab el-Mandeb strait, watch details on JAAG TV pic.twitter.com/YyjqsS47b9
— JAAG TV (@JaagAlerts) March 31, 2015
...and on the implications for the regional balance of power...
The collapse of Yemen as a political reality and the power of the Houthis will enable Iran to expand its presence on both sides of the Bab el-Mandeb, in the Gulf of Aden and in the Red Sea. Already discrete numbers of Iranian naval vessels regularly sail these waters," J. Peter Pham of U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council said.
Analysts say Houthi forces do not themselves have the maritime capabilities or the interest to target the Bab el-Mandeb, while warning of Iranian influence.
"If the Iranians were to gain access to a de facto base in some port or another controlled by the Houthis whom they have aided in the latter’s fight, the balance of power in the sub-region would shift significantly," said Pham, who also advises U.S., European and African governments…
Any closure of Bab el-Mandeb, Arabic for "Gate of Tears" due to its precarious navigation, would close off the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline that connects to the Mediterranean and supplies oil to southern Europe.
"If an escalating conflict results in the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Straits, tankers from the Persian Gulf would be unable to reach the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, a journey of at least 40 days," said shipping analyst Natasha Boyden with MLV & Co.
For their part, SocGen was out on Monday opining that the chances of a disruption to oil shipments occasioned by the conflict in Yemen were relatively slim, but the following commentary sheds some light on how important the strait truly is, on who is there patrolling the waters, and on what role Iran may play in enhancing the Houthi’s maritime capabilities:
The only possible issue, in our view, is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (see map above). This is a chokepoint between Yemen and Djibouti that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. According to the US EIA, 3.8 Mb/d of crude oil and refined products flowed through this waterway in 2013 in both directions, north towards Europe and the US and south towards Asia. More than half the traffic, 2.1 Mb/d, moved north to the Suez Canal and the parallel Sumed pipeline. At its narrowest point, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is only 18 miles wide, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels, one in each direction. However, because of their strategic nature for oil trade and other commerce, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Red Sea are heavily and permanently patrolled by US, NATO, and other allied naval forces. The Iranian navy also maintains a regular presence.
Last week, Egypt, which is part of the Saudi-led coalition, sent 4 additional naval ships to the Red Sea…
Houthi land forces are reportedly well trained and equipped. However, for them, as for many similar militia groups, it would be a very big step to add a maritime capability. Hypothetically, Iran could help them add such a capability. However, at this time, Iran’s support may be limited to financing. It is not clear from reports if Iran is providing equipment and training to the Houthis. Iran is not overtly involved militarily, in the same sense that they have boots on the ground in Iraq and Syria (for example). To carry the hypothetical scenario forward, Iran might, at some point, be able to help equip and train the Houthis to carry out attacks at sea using small, fast boats packed with explosives, acting alone or in swarms. This is a capability that Iran itself has.
Finally, Reuters is reporting heavy rocket and artillery fire along the border as the Hadi government begs for a ground incursion:
Residents and tribal sources in north Yemen reported artillery and rocket exchanges along several stretches of the Saudi border. Explosions and heavy gunfire were heard and Saudi helicopters flew overhead, they said.
In the southern port of Aden, Houthi fighters and allied army units pressed an offensive against forces loyal to Hadi, trying to capture the last remaining major stronghold of the absent president's forces.
At least 36 people were killed when Houthi forces shelled Hadi loyalists in Aden. Jets from the Saudi-led coalition bombed Houthi positions near the airport.
Hadi's rump government, now based in Saudi Arabia, is calling for Riyadh to escalate the air war into an invasion.
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Next war to start in the Strait of Hormuz
The US military proved in Iraq and Afghanistan (and Vietnam) that invasion and occupation are doomed to fail. Let self-determination rise!
4GW FTW
Geography matters. Imagine that!
Anything to save the BDI
Really? Those behind those wars a happy with the results. It's not perfect to them and they will continue but they are much happier with todays conditions than yesterdays.
Yep! You have hit the main point. Invading and defeating an army is one thing the great militaries can do. BUT, occupy a resistant nation? Look at Iraq. The USA used 125K troops to occupy a nation of 35 million people and large land area. We spent a trillion dollars and several thousand lives to OCCUPY Iraq. In fact, this was an utter failure! We did not control Iraq, we do not control Iraq. The men our nation sent to fight there, must now live with the fact that they were sent on a fools errand, and given an impossible mission. What, there are thousands of ruined men, wounded, crippled, and in a bad mental state, all from America's folly! Foolish America, they cheered on this war, while it was a complete failure. We are gone and Al-Qaeda and ISIS are like flies on a sugar cube there.
" A mine is a terrible thing that waits. "
... they cheered on this war, while it was a complete failure.
Words - so easy to say. Facts - so difficult to prove.
While it was a complete failure is a useless grouping of words - unless you tie it to some standard - failure, in terms of ... . Somebody went to war to achieve a specific something. You may not ever know what that something was. But, as long as that something was achieved by those who started the war, the war cannot be said to be a failure. As measured against their standard.
How about this RichardP, the Iraq war agenda as expressed to the American sheeple idiots was a complete failure? Yes, the American-Zionist deep state has it's own nefarious agenda, which has nothing to do with the bs ideals expressed to sell the carnage.
Not only that, but the Chinese and Russian Oil Companies are doing well in Iraq these days! The irony.
There is no evidence whatsoever that the Iranians are involved. Using the words "Iran" or "Iranian" in this article so many times merely shows that it was written by a dual-national.
Egypt and the Saudi navies have already closed the Bab al Mandeb Straits. They've been closed since last week. The Houthis have nothing to do with it, and have said specifically they have absolutely no reason to EVER close the straits.
The Houthis and the Yemeni army are fighting against the U.S./Saudi puppet Hadi and his corrupt cronies. It has nothing to do with Red Sea shipping.
Al Arabiya is the mouthpiece of the House of Saud and their U.S. cronies - eveyrthing is going to be biased against the Yemenis. They are bending over backwards to suggest a fake Iranian connection that somehow will equate Iran with a threat to close the Bab al Mandeb Straits, even though Saudi Arabia and Egypt have already closed them!
False flag to blame Iran for sinking a ship in 3... 2... 1... What? The U.S.S. Liberty isn't available?
Oh, hell... sink an Egyptian one then so we have an excuse to start a war with Iran. Preferrably one with either children or U.S. advisors on board. Us Americans are stupid like that.
And exactly like the situtation with the Liberty and the El Arish slaughter, we can use that as a distraction from Israel/Egypt/Saudi slaughtering hundreds of unarmed Houthi prisoners and then burying them in an unmarked mass grave somewhere in the desert to be forgotten forever.
One little BOMB in Riyadh and those polished soldiers will shit themselves and run for the hills.
yes, the laws of cause and effect are a bitch.... Saudi Arabia is going to look much like Iraq in 3,2,1.....
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.nettrader2.com
Thanks to manipulation, this should be terrible news for safehaven plays.
Makes sense that there are naval ships from China there now.
Nowadays when it comes to gold, good news is bad news and bad news is, well, still bad news.
everyone is running into Dollars.... mission accomplished
Not too much squawking from Obama on this one. Gee, I wonder why?
Because he don't want None of that shit. He's probably told them it's their baby. Obama does Not want back in that sand box. Hitlery or BushCo3 will give you the war you want.
Bet he is bitch slapping the Wook though
Thanks, William. I think I just blew out a lung.
Let the Sauds take Yemen, what difference does it make at this point?
"HILLARY / BIDEN jr. 2016"
Boogeymen du Jour: Yemen's Houthis
http://winteractionables.com/?p=19530
«Boogeymen du Jour: Yemen's Houthis»
Yes, the villains are now Houthis..imagine that...the very word sounds evil when we're - subconsciously maybe - reminded of Hutus and Tutsis...
All these war narratives are so contrived and blatantly manipulative...I'd be ready to bet a good bottle of Highland Park they all emanate from game theory specialists in downtown Tel-Aviv. It's not hard to imagine that in a few dark rooms full of computers, geopolitics are used exactly the same way as drones....
Well, the Houthis are kind of a proxy boogie-man du Jour. The narrative has always been to connect Iran with 'something bad'. If you want to see where the narrative is going, just read any right-wing Israeli site (besides CNN). Here's Debka File's spin:
Khamenei sends Iranian navy to Bab el-Mandeb Straits. Iran arms store for Hamas bombed in Libya
see this article for a good take on the yemen mess.
http://www.rense.com/general96/startersolu.html
all Yemen has to do is get 97% of their people to vote to become part of Saudi Arabia, NATO will be right over to help out...
HOUTHIferians! [lispy Luciferians]
HOUTHIferians! [lispy Luciferians]
...or gay
Vote down!HOUTHIferians! [lispy Luciferians]Long face paint
Moar amerikan exceptionalism needed!
Oil still falling. Not believing the Houthi hype.
... and down goes Frazier...
Yemen is going to put the hurt on the House of Sa'ud.
I wonder if Puty's finger is somewhere in this. Some proxy pain to the friends of his enemies. Time for the House if Saud to suffer.
The former South Yemen was aligned with the Soviet Union for years. They're the side that (if you believe the MSM) is the strongest supporter of Hadi. It would be a lot easier to make the case that Putin is with Hadi/South Yemen and supports military action against the Yemeni army and Houthi rebels. Unfortunately for the MSM, he's not. The Russian government and Putin have already condemmed Hadi for ordering the deaths of his own people simply because they hate him and his puppet regime.
Saudi Army = fags with gadgets
Yup. Saudis don't do work themselves, certainly not ground fighting. Might bring in some guest-worker soldiers I suppose. SOCOM up!
False flag bitchez
If Russia had sent it's army into Ukraine to restore Viktor Yanukovych the democratically elected president to power the west would have called Russians villains, occupiers and barbarians invading a sovereign nation. Putin would be referred to as Hitler in disguise. When Saudi Arabia with it's vassel states supported by the United States and Israel invades and bombs Yemen a sovereign nation we have no problem with this,... Geopolitical interests we just do what is good for us. Hypocrisy at its finest!
Welcome to the New World Order...
An excellent observation and well said Mike Masr. Surely noted in Foreign Offices around the world, especially Russia. The UNSC doesn't appear to have anything to say about this. It's last statement was 22MAR calling for "restraint" but only in terms of internal parties. Houthis ignoring resolution 2201 gives foreigners the right to invade? WTF, can't find the actual resolution at un website.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=50403#.VRsEPK79XfY
The UN High Comissioner for Human Rights made a statement today. BFD.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=50464#.VRsG0a79XfY
Acually he IS referred to as Hitler
by Hillary (Hitlary, Killary) whichever you like.
Saudi's are spooked by the double threat – IS from the North and now Houthi from the South. The Kingdom is under siege, the end game is nigh for them.
It's really sad to see the ancient, open sewers of Sanaa get bombed by the the middle eastern 1%ers. Look House of Saud and you other gulf state neocon stooges. Not all of us have the privilege of dropping a deuce in a gold toliet. Fuckers.
no wonder the house of saud have trashed mecca and medina
dem queer brit appointed royal house of saud fellas are jewish
In his book, The Dönmeh Jews, D. Mustafa Turan writes that Wahhab’s grandfather, Tjen Sulayman, was actually Tjen Shulman, a member of the Jewish community of Basra, Iraq. The Iraqi intelligence report also states that in his book, The Dönmeh Jews and the Origin of the Saudi Wahhabis, Rifat Salim Kabar reveals that Shulman eventually settled in the Hejaz, in the village of al-Ayniyah what is now Saudi Arabia, where his grandson founded the Wahhabi sect of Islam. The Iraqi intelligence report states that Shulman had been banished from Damascus, Cairo, and Mecca for his “quackery.” In the village, Shulman sired Abdul Wahhab. Abdel Wahhab’s son, Muhammad, founded modern Wahhabism.
http://m.strategic-culture.org/news/2011/10/26/the-doenmeh-the-middle-ea...
Bingo! Give that man a Cee Gar. I post that exact same piece on a thread here a week or so ago. Cheers. Is it ever a wonder as to why those Wahabbi Scum Fucks never have a beef with Rothchild Zionist Isreal?
'dönme' means 'covert', and as a secont meaning 'traitor', one who changes sides.
Has the Saudi military ever conquered anything besides Mayfair, London?
nothing new under the sun
how a private army called the sas got started
a story of british pirates and saudi shitters
The Mayfair Set episode 1- Who Pays Winshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=234H8X1-JiA
Edgeware Road?????
On a second thought, thats the Gulf Emirates and the Lebanese Restaurants.
By the way I was informed, that the Al CIAida were demonstrating there (all 85 people) with their Black Flag but the Police only 250 meters away (Paddington Green Police Station) were chasing pick-pockets.
These Crypto Zionist Wahabbi Scum Fucks are also fighting against the $500 Million Dollars worth of MIC equipment left behind by the Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC.
"Which path to Persia?"
The two choices were Syria and Saudi Arabia.
That and the seeming desire to topple all monarchies. Now that Saudi Arabia is engaged in war, it makes the drop in oil prices and oil glut a lot more understandable.
The Sauds did not take the initial bait to cut production ... so they still have cash coming in. But wars can be expensive and with all of your money tied up in US banks, thanks to the petro dollar, it will be interesting to see how long it takes the Saud to feel the pinch.
Set some wells on fire, crash a market or two and BINGO!
As a resident of the Midwest, the link between my day-to-day life and the presence of Iranian-backed militias in Yemen is clear as a bell.
i love how everyone on zh loves to criticize all war instead of strategically accept that some wars have very real winners and losers.
and the outcome isn't just some political stupid argument, it's actually which military crushes the other military .
so yea, if saudi arabia wants to fuck the shit out of yemen, like us did to iraqy their going to need an army of a lot of their own peopel to fucking murder kill their way around the country with lots of tanks and shit.
it would be a real murder kill city with many many people dying. yemen is vulnerable to a food shortage and food famines if the supply lines for imports are cut.
SA can do a a real kill murder kill if they want. but maybe not.
Who is "us"? What "us" are you refering to?
like us did to iraqy
"us" == USA. Some folks don't know how to operate their shift keys properly.
Is oil being manipulated higher? lower? or both? Saudi Arabia leading a war should have spike oil.
The U.S. and Arab funded Al-Ciada/ISIS snake is biting the Arabs in the tail
Also the Arabs discovered that the U.S. is a back stabbing country with no other alliances than themselves. They are not only very psychopathic in their foreign policy approach but also very narcissistic. They murder, steel all the gold and turn tribes against each other and themselves.
That’s why you see countries snubbing the U.S. more and more. Exactly to the opposite of total hilarious MSM propaganda that the U.S. is so successful in isolating/destroying countries.
If religions didn't exist, MIC would create them.
Natural and foreseeable consequence of Iran's upcoming nuclear 'deal'.
So do I buy Raytheon, Boeing or oil stock next? Either way, if Iran jumps in, Saudi will become incapacitated.
I wonder if this isn't the distracting "cover" for something else; say NATO (US) involvement in the Ukraine coming shortly, or an excuse to bomb Iran.
Regarding MH17: The investigating team is now calling for anybody with evidence of a BUK missile launch to come forward, 8 months after the event. I'm sure someone has just been holding back Youtube clips just for this moment.
http://rt.com/news/245449-mh17-crash-buk-investigation/
http://rt.com/news/245449-mh17-crash-buk-investigation/
The only Invasion ever won by air strikes alone was the Invasion of Japan in WWII when the US dropped 2 nukes on the Japanese.
The Saudis will absolutely have to send in troops.
However, I think the US will be called to backstop the Saudis and Pakistanis (the latter who are hired by KSA to do the infantry fighting) as I don't see them being able to force the Houthis to submit.
Remember, this is going to be Shia vs Sunni....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Karbala
We are talking full on proxy religous war between KSA and Iran.
The Kingdom is going to lay a guilt trip on Kerry ("You are giving Iran permission to build nuclear power....what's in it for us?") followed by the eventual quid pro quo ("you want Saudi to support the US through world oil price manipulation....well, we need a Brigade of trainers and advisors in Yemen").
Iranians have what they want and will bide their time until they roll out a nuke one day and let the world know that destroying Israel AND Saudi is "non negotiable"
Nice work Obama and Kerry - you just totally fucked up Middle East Politics beyond all repair and have ushered in the beginning of transnational Sunni-Shia Religous war AND a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Edit: AND you totally laid the Israelis out to dry while trying to politically assassinate the current prime minister.