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Chicago PMI Fails To Bounce Back, Hovers Near 6-Year Lows
Despite the hockey-stick-like expectations of all the clever economists, Chicago PMI failed to bounce back from its total carnage in February. Printing 46.3 against expectations of 51.4, the index remains at near six-year lows. Must be the weather... oh apart from the massive surge in Midwest pending home sales...? This is the biggest 5-month plunge since Lehman.
Not what the Keynesian mean-reverters were hoping for...
With the biggest 5-month plunge since Lehman...
Under the covers, slight improvement...
- Forecast range 45 - 55 from 42 economists surveyed
- Prices Paid fell compared to last month
- New Orders rose compared to last month
- Employment rose compared to last month
- Inventory rose compared to last month
- Supplier Deliveries fell compared to last month
- Production rose compared to last month
- Order Backlogs rose compared to last month
- Business activity has been positive for 10 months over the past year.
- Number of Components Rising: 5
Charts: Bloomberg
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nah, it is the upcoming election...it reflects the new expectation of the current mayor to lose...
this dogshit economic data is simply further proof the only way out is to take the pain, cut the debt, and raise rates to 4-5%.
what will actually happen? yellen & liesman will use this as evidence as to why they shouldn't (and can't) ever leave.
fucking pathetic. get some guys in congress with some real fucking balls to put an end to this shit. worst thing you can do in a bad trade going against you is to continue to double, triple down. take the fucking pain, get over it, admit fault, and move on. unfortunately, i don't see that happening. rather, we'll all just continue to borrow til we run 200-300% debt-to-gdp and blow the fuck up.
The Fed does not need to raise rates. They need to get out of the rate business altogether.
Let Borrowers and Savers come together and set the rates, the old fashioned way.
When you see banks offering inducements to savers to get their loan funds, and not borrowing from the Fed, you will know that we are getting somewhere.
could not have been said better.
unfortunately, that will never happen (or unless some of these sovereigns are actually allowed to default) because if that were the caes, IMO, rates would be "naturally" around volcker-era rates due to:
1. the "real" inflation that is killing the middleclass (ie. food, college education, retirement -having ZIRP for 6 years has set everyone behind the curve on time horizon for retiring - etc.
2. the creditworthiness of those getting home loans right now would reflect their actions when they decided to walk on their houses 5-6-7 years ago with ZERO ramifications. instead, obama & his guys over at FHFA are repeating the mistakes made leading up to the housing crisis. i know id never lend $$$ to someone who beat me on a note in the past.
You are right. It will never happen.
Sound money principles have given away to quants that only track numbers. They do not understand the guidng forces behind the numbers at all.
It takes more than tracking the numbers to be able to forecast what is going to occur most likely in the future.
The Fed has never predicted a recession that I am aware of, and that is all the proof one needs to understand what I am talking about.
They operate in the rear view mirror only, and that view is very narrow in scope.
There are two types of price increases: monetary and demand. The Fed cannot distinquish between the two.
We could have rampant inflation hidden by a drop in demand and the Fed will NEVER grasp that there is inflation due to monetary mismanagement.
I blame the Guernsians....
for the last two months I've seen our phone volume crater by 40% from last year. this is in a very basic basic industry which everyone needs. people stretched to the max so the pricing pressure is intense among all those competing for this business. Dollar sales volume has also tanked.
Yeah, I'm feeling so good about the future I gotta wear shades. Something wicked this way coming.
Has the Fed not started buying from you with freshly printed money? They must have a sector-pump-up application process for your industry somewhere...
Impact of strong $ starting to come through.
You seem to have many painful and regrettable associations with the idea of sexual intercourse. Maybe you're doing it wrong?