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World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low
From Gavekal Capital Blog
World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low
It's become a running theme, at least since last September, but the latest release of CPI numbers from around the world has brought our simple average World CPI proxy to its lowest level since the financial crisis. For the period ending in February, our World CPI proxy hit just 1.01% year-over-year. This is the lowest rate of change since November 2009. The year-over-year rate in our World CPI proxy has been falling for six months straight.
Oil has undoubtedly dragged down the headline CPI for many countries around the world. However, our World CPI proxy has the highest correlation (0.78) to the Citi Inflation Surprise Index which is near its lowest levels ever. 14 of the 33 countries that we track currently have a year-over-year change in consumer prices at or below 0%.
Our World PPI proxy bounced back slightly in February but still remains squarely in negative territory year-over-year (-2.43%).
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http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/03/goldman-expects-inflation-risk-premi...
Because we are in a DEPRESSION, not a garden variety recession. The last one was a worldwide phenomenon, too.
Meanwhile seafood in local stores goes up 80-100% in these two years. I don't believe in any of this deflation blah blah blah.
Didn't beef just double since 2008? Deflation is what's in my wallet. Inflation is affecting all goods and services in real demand like education, food, shelter, healthcare, etc... What we have is too much global manufacturing with no real growth. Think of Chinese laborers jumping off buildings because them make Apple IPADs. Cheap widgets with no pay is the cause for deflation.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.nettrader2.com
this of course means MOAR (for the 0.1%)
High inflation .... silver sores .... low inflation .... silver soars .... it makes as much sense .... as anything .... hedge affordingly !
Deflation, silver and gold plummet
Global Japanization!
more like Detroitification....the Japanese are at least tidy. American and Europe will wallow in squalor!
Stocks getting smushed right now. That UE release on the abreviated "Good Friday" session might have just been released to the lucky ones.
Wait...how does lower oil price drive CPI down....but higher gas prices (and food prices) doesn't raise the CPI?
Oh, never mind...Coking Up With The Karshitians is on...go back to sleep...
Inflation in the things you need (and they don't count) Deflation in the things that are nice to have but aren't necessary to daily living for the peons......
If you can get past who the speaker is, this video from 2007 explains it perfectly. You can skip the intro and go directly to 10 minutes in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A
Will be down arrowed only by those who don't bother to watch it, guaranteed.
My gas prices have come down. Food prices have risen moderately so have been switching to alternatives such as chicken over beef. But I expect beef to top this year as I have stated several times.
The runaway train is hurtling towards its catastrophic end. Certain death awaits anyone attempting to jump off to safety (there also isn't any safe place to jump to).
It's a cold hard fact that TPTB have totally screwed the pooch and that there is no turning back (TPTB's stupidity, hubris, pride, self-interests and momentum won't allow it).
Government corruption, fiscal and monetary stupidity, sociopathic "leaders", Centralized government, Fascism, Marxism, Nation building and demographics = CRASH!
Please, please, please... let this runaway train continue rolling down the track for a few more years. I need more time to build up my investment capital and get the rest of my ducks in a row for the... BIG RESET.
Gold tells you we are on the steady march to DEPERSSION! You better learn to garden and the rich better buy guns and fences
Gold doesn't talk to me. Even silver hardly gives me the time of day. Must not be in with the in crowd.
Generally the wealthy have the economic freedom to move. They just simply move to areas more friendly to them.
And an economic crisis also poses an opportunity for them. This is when they can attain more power by their so called charity to assist the poor.
CPI and inflation are not the same thing and the terms should not be used as synonyms.
Relearning my fresh and salt water fishing skills from when I was a boy will be helpful. Also how to field dress rabbits.
Permaculture in the basement (tilapia, veggies and herbs), a few greenhouses out back (veggies, fruits, herbs, nuts and seeds) and a rabbit hut and a chicken coop should fully handle all nutritional needs.
A well and filter system handles pure drinking water.
Solar power and a miniature hydro-electric system for the creek will take care of energy.
DEFLATION!!!
Pluto in Capricorn, Uranus in Aries, and Neptune in Pisces = a trifecta of deflation, government incompetence, and mass woes.
I don't think we witness a low CPI but fraud. The problem is in the formulas. Isn't it that governments are now prisoners of their fabricated statistics? The desire to print low CPI's to justify low interest rates and to show an statiscally elevated GDP has created a system that is reducing CPI systematically to a marginal number. Shadowstats, I believe, calculates 7-8% CPI for the USA using the pre-Clinton formula. A "silly" consumer basket, hedonistic principle and subsidies in combination with price controls for example particularly in the EU agricultural and energy sector distort the figures dramatically. The central banks globally abuse the distorted CPI figures to lament about slowing credit expansion, thereby intentionally confusing consumers which from their individual viewpoint have an interest in falling prices and are not concerned about credit expansion. The whole system is apparently about "managing society", seems to be completley wrotten and should be disposed off on the dump of history.
But with every central bank in the world printing money with reckless abandon, surely inflation is just around the corner. Surely.
You do realize they said the exact same things during Weimar, right? LOL. Go read about it. They had a "lack of currency". Inflation isn't low. Look at the global bond and stock markets. You give away trillions to bankers, they buy banker stuff at ignorant prices. Inflation is always chunky in the short term. One thing the world does not have is a lack of currency floating around. We are awash in it. Nothing has changed. The inflationists are correct. The deflationists always cherry pick volatility. Asset prices are sky high. It is just a matter of time until the next piece of chunk gets blown through the roof.
Your assessment is spot on. I was reading some charts from the Weimar Republic time period. Hyperinflation comes very quickly once it starts in earnest. The number one expense for the time was food. It accounted for something like 90% of a households income.