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"It's Not The Weather, Stupid"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's the economy!

While above the 27 year average, Snow fall this year is 30% below last year's.

Source: Goldman Sachs

So, while it helps the narrative and provides an easy crutch for Keynesian apparatchiks from being forced to admit their philosophy's utter failure; as the collapse in oil, the plunge in world trade, and the "worst since Lehman" drops in macro data simply do not fit the 'weather' meme...

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is only so much future demand that can be dragged into the present before the whole ponzi collapses...

 

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Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:11 | 5949377 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Of course it's the weather...it's a shit storm!

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:14 | 5949388 ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

Going to need a better umbrella.

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:20 | 5949406 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Don't tell us, tell the penises at CNBC

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 15:39 | 5949816 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

It all depends opon 'WHETHER' definition of 'WEATHER'... is the same definition of what 'IS' is...

 

I'm READY for Hillary! 2016!

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hGfqBaO9sI0/Uood8EVzQKI/AAAAAAAAGIM/e7ipNwD-l-...

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:14 | 5949390 AmericasCicero
AmericasCicero's picture

A bullshit storm

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:14 | 5949387 mtndds
mtndds's picture

Like corn through a goose!!

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:15 | 5949389 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Something to do with collapsing credit (and debt) creation, causing collapsing demand, highlighting massive overcapactiy without the flow of new credit...

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/03/are-seeds-of-depression-sprouting.html

 

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:26 | 5949408 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why bad debt and bad actors need to clear and go to prison/bankrupt, respectively.  Economics is not a hard science, it's a social science, period.  Demand is a pretty fucking generic term, be specific. With 7+ billion people all competing for a higher standard of living and most living in sub-standard conditions, there is plenty of demand for all the real resources that make a high standard of living possible.  Just because new credit is not being created as fast doesn't change the fact that there are already far more paper claims on real goods and services than the assets/goods/services that can actually be delivered...

..the can kicking has work so far because those paper claims have not left CB balance sheets...   ...yet, but all stimulus is fungible motherfucker.  global weimar, tick tock...

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:39 | 5949452 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Demand for private parties is met, generally, via two means...1, spending wages/profits and/or savings, or 2, credit.  Likewise, governments can tax more and spend more or use credit / debt. 

The creation of debt globally is slowing (private parties falling back to what is acheivable via savings/wages) and the wrong kinds of debt (primarily government via debt, not taxation) are taking over.  Still, insufficient global credit means insufficient demand means excess capacity.  Not sure what's off-putting there?  I have no dog in the fight wanting more or less, just stating without the continued flow of  credit / debt creation, the system is likely falling into a depression.

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:57 | 5949569 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Define "depression".  I'd argue by real accounting standard we have been in one for quite some time.

Please, you still think that somehow these bullshit eCONomic "laws" are relevant when they aren't.  Quality of life is important.  i know of many communities with great resources and great people that most wall street bankers and financiers would say do not have good economies.  Fuck em.  Simply put "full faith and credit"...

no more faith means no more credit for you motherfucker...

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 15:31 | 5949648 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Laws,

my thinking is a depression occurs when long overbuilt, over-credited capacity meets significant, sustained insufficient demand creating an ongoing imbalance against existing capacity...capacity premised on continued growth of credit and debt and typically utilizing high ratios of leverage. 

Governments have been trying to step in by creating money from nothing to maintain "demand", continuing not just to maintain existing capacity but maintain growing capacity...but it ain't working.  And now things will likely get really serious as the excess capacity is so large and so leveraged when paired with existing wages, savings, tax revenues that the spiral down and the unwind of bad debt and leverage ratios could be the stuff of mad max.  Govermental and CB attempts to fill the collapsing credit void is the great fear and the hyperinflationary nightmare.

Why advanced economy demand is waning...

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/02/fundamentally-flawed-chapter-1-advanced.html

and bad demographics

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/02/fundamentally-flawed-chapter-4.html

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 15:38 | 5949787 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Clearly. Greed. Both sides. Profit and entitlement. Equally responsible, and ultimately vulnerable. The capitalist condition.

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:19 | 5949404 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

At some point, all those paper claims on real goods and services will start seeking them out...


Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:24 | 5949413 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead! Man all pumps! We've got this... Capt. Jack Yellen

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 14:46 | 5949499 venturen
venturen's picture

what happens when you solve a bubble burst  by recreating the bubble...and not the incomes!

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 17:22 | 5950213 ted41776
ted41776's picture

sub-prime is the new tier 1... don't sweat it scro, we're good for it!

Wed, 04/01/2015 - 18:57 | 5950538 thecrud
thecrud's picture

Remember it was failed back door credit default default swaps that took them down not lending.

Appraisals still fake as ever special loans for flippers Countrywide only had 6 percent of its loans subprime the CEO himself said so and stated even if everyone of them went bad it still would not bring us down.

 

More sub prime paid up than banks they used my tax money.

Instead of the bankruptcy court where they belonged so I could buy their assets from the court.

But it is your story you can tell it how you want.

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