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Chart Of The Day: Is The US Already In A Recession?
A month ago, when looking at the latest Factory Orders numbers, we noticed something very disturbing: the annual rate of increase, or rather decrease, in factory orders dropped to -2.3%. The last two time this happened was in 2008, just after the failure of Lehman, and in 2001, just as the US was again entering a recession. In fact, if there is one reliable, false-negative proof indicator of key recessionary inflection points in the US economy, it is the annual change in Factory Orders.
Unfortunately for the econo-bulls, and the Fed's rate-hike prospects, moments ago the latest Factory Orders number came out, and it was not good.
Amusingly, on the surface it was actually a beat, rising by 0.2%, relative to the -0.4% expected. However, if one actually looks at the underlying number, February was still a miss, because the January print was revised substantially lower, from $470Bn to $467.5Bn, which means the 0.2% increase was really a 0.4% decline relative to the pre-revised number.
What worse, however, is when one looks at the Factory Orders series on an annual basis. It is here that the sequential fudges become irrelevant, and here where it becomes obvious that, all else equal, the US is already in a recession.
And the long-term chart, courtesy of the St. Louis Fed
Finally, ignoring the annual rate of change, here is just the absolute unadjusted number. The message is very clear.
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We are in a depressed tyrannical shithole.
And the medication to fix that only leads folks to drive airplanes into the ground making the shithole even larger, more depressing and maniacal.
Manufacturing is overrated. Hookers and blow is the wave of the future.
We can look forward to beautiful, young, vivacious college grads hitting the streets, saddled down with student loan debt and unable to find a job. They will join the list of hookers hustling to make money to live on and pay off their student loan debts. These will be cleaner, healthier hookers -they won't be able to use their earnings on body tatoos and blow.
Sounds like the Weimar Republic
Barry says we need to positive spin recession and call it not so bad slowdown.
Weimar is getting closer every day but it, of course, be a complete surprise to our 'elite' genius leadership. The way it looks the EU will tank first, then Japan, followed by the US with China left wondering who they are going to sell their cheap crap to.....
You won't live long enough to see the next officially declared recession. It'll happen, but it won't be called that. Just like the word depression has been banished (despite being in one currently), so has the word recession.
Right, depression and recession have been banned, so we can never be in one of those again....all fixed.
Oh, don;t worry, there will be plenty of talk about recession and/or depression once a Republican is elected to the White House. I'm not saying the government will admit there being one, but the press will finally come around and start reporting things with vigor.
At some point, they won't be able to hide it. Remember the meme "Bush's fault?" Yeah, get ready for 8 years of "Obama's fault." Bush sucked and Obama doubled down on hiis policies. So maybe we can just stick with "Bush's fault."
Fuck me, this world sucks.
The real world doesn't suck. Go flyfishing in a mountain stream. The real world is grand.
While I hate to argue on a point, I have seen pics of the great depression and had grand parents who were teens during. From what I understand of it we are the opposite of depression, in a odd utopia where everyone can afford a gadget with a monthly payment for a family that exceeds $200 a month and it is deemed a current necessity.
That isn't a sign of depression in a financial sense. Maybe morally in some way to some people. I spent $3k looking for a trade based employee last year and while I received some applications none were worthy of the training or met the requirements. Ten years ago it took one ad, but most of the time it didn't even take that. I rember in 01 recession that there was never a issue of finding employees. Judging by what I see day to day I would gather that there isn't anyone without a job who wants one. I also know but one person in my social circle who has lost a job in the last year, and he had another after a very brief vacation.
We are currently still allowed to print purchasing power. People will lose all of that in the end, just like in the 30's. It won;t look like a failed bank taking all their purchasing power down with it. But the end result will be the same.
Not my experience with regular middle class folks. Lots of desperation going around with unemployment, debt, crappy jobs. The facade looks great but underneath things have rotted out in the last 10 years.
pursueliberty-in the 30's we had soup lines, real markets and currency tied to gold. now, fiat printed to buy time, snap cards, free shit army financed by spinless politicshitbags selling our future for votes. argue that?
I understand that it is easier to hide the poor now. I'm speaking of those that I know in the middle to middle upper class tier. My brother lives in a middle upper sub division. There are a shit ton of new vehicles in drive ways, they have built another 50 houses in his neighborhood in the past 16 months, all have been sold before 50% completion. I just don't see it where I'm at, and I promise I am not blind to the big picture. I know things are not as rosey as they might seem on the outside, but what I see sure doesn't look like a depression.
The difference is, in the '30s we didn't have a completely fiat money system in place, with electronic distribution and the consumer-culture fueled by debt that we have now. People went to soup kitchens and stood in bread lines. Now it's all electronic transfer of made-up money, which keeps people inside their homes; not coming together in numbers to see how many they are.
Also these days, people don't get hired without a phone number, e-mail address and internet connectivity. And now that companies have divested job training to the education/finance industry, at the expense of would-be workers, even getting credentials is part of the exploitation process. The jobs that went away in the 2000 collapse stayed gone. Those who got other jobs are doing what they can to keep them, or keep body and soul together in other ways. It's a very different-looking collapse this time around, that's quite true.
Yes, we can get our free shit delivered to the privacy of our homes. Any possibility of shame is completely eliminated...unless you don't want to be forced to attend a gay wedding. Pretty amazing when you think about it.
Last I checked, there were 46 or 47 million people on SNAP. That's pretty close to 15% of the population that can either not feed themselves or does not know how to feed themselves, and that does not get into state wellfare programs. EBT is your modern soup line. It's hidden. Get rid of EBT, and if you're lucky, you'll have riots that devolve into soup lines. If you're unlucky, total chaos.
Would you mind telling us what qualifications your job opening required? I would like to know.
Thanks.
I kinda think you've already been proven right. These numbers lately say that we've been in a recession for around 6 to 12 months (look at the recession in 2008, it started before the similar decline). They'll continue to plummet and there will be no mention of recession.
We've been in a depression since 2008, but the cocksuckers in DC lie to us. We're in perpetual "recovery." They keep on telling us that things are perpetually getting better, when they are, in fact, not. This was something used in 1984.
You didn't mention that the depression which then later became to be known as The Great Depression, was called like that because the word recession had been banished back then too.
So what will be the next word to be used for our current one?
Purgatory?
The great lie.
Shit, then being the entrepreneur that I am, pimpin these hoes it is!
Italian GDP components?
If the price of booze tells you anything, it's that we're in a depression.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl7s4fsooPE
What does happen to the price of booze in a depression? does it go up?
Yes, "drinking is the curse of the working class"...
I forget who said it.
I prefer Oscar Wilde's version :
Work is the curse of the drinking class
What is this "work" you are referring to? Tell us again what our workplace participation rate is...and of those how many are steeping tea leaves on the back porch?
People make their own. My grandmother told stories of all sorts of alcohol brewing in the home during the Great Depression. BTW - if made for personal consumption prohibition didn't matter. Hell, I heard of people making wine from dandelions when I was a kid in the 70s.
Distilled beer is bourbon, distilled wine is brandy. People get creaive when they need an escape. Alcohol is great for barter and is an excellent astringent.
"if made for personal consumption prohibition didn't matter" is an explanation for the grandchildren, with a small "but nevertheless don't talk about it", isn't it?
I think the making-your-own had more to do with prohibition than it did the great depression.
Only the bottom end of the bottle goes up for sure..
To me, and most average WORKING Americans, we haven't recovered since the recession in 2008. All my extra income goes toward paying off my loans as soon as possible. Even if I didn't have those, I was too young to capitalize on the cheap stocks and cheap houses back in '08-'09. Most Americans are far too poor to be able to capitalize on the rigged markets.
I do not recommend getting into the rigged stock markets now for those that do have some extra cash. I believe its time to cash out of your stocks while they are still near all-time highs. Silver is such a great buy right now. It can be bought below the cost of production (mining and minting)! These candles with silver coin prizes are a great way to start: https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers. When you buy silver you are better protected if the economy completely collapses. If it doesn't you can wait until it is properly valued and trade back into stocks once that market has cooled off a bit.
We never left the recession/depression due to the 2008 collapse.
It has merely been financially engineered into a decay, and the GDP deflator is rigged so it doesn't show a recession/depression.
The result is that Wall Street no longer in any way reflects main street.
haven't recovered since the recession in 2008
Since......who?
George Carlin said it best. "It's a big club....and you ain't in it."
We ain't in the "Recovey" Club.
Exactly!! Average working Americans haven't seen a real income increase for quiet some time. Wall Street has seen a boom, however. It is no accident. That is what the bailouts were designed to do. Finish off the middle class with a major loot job. They are being found out. It will be interesting this time around, because bailouts are out of the question, and I don't see Americans going along with bail-ins.
I have not seen a net increase in my income greater then the bogus .gov inflation rate since 08 and have been negative the last two years because of increases in health insurance.
Never underestimate the fear that the sociopaths will unleash on the sheeple to control them. Rember the "Bazooka" speech by Hank Paulsen to force TARP through, which was then completely violated to bail out AIG, Government Motors, Crap Motors, etc. The next engineered crash will be even bigger to terrify the sheeple into abandoning their traditional retirement plans (SS, IRA, 401K, Pension, etc). MyRA was a big tell on what the sociopaths are planning on next. My guess is a giant govt all in one boondogle to combine SS, Medicare, Medicaid, 0zer0care by raiding IRA, 401K and pensions. The Fed already owns the sheeple house courtesy of Freddie and Fannie bailouts, so the only thing the sheeple have left is their retirement. Take that away and the sheeple literally have to work day to to day just to exist and pay taxes to the govt. to "take care of them". The perfect debt slave courtesy of the New Feudal World Order.
Other than that things are ok.
Imagine how we feel in California..
Hey but it's a dry heat at least.
That wins the comment of the day award.
On my East Bay hill top its usually a dry cool, a windy dry cool at that, when its not a wet foggy one, or just really pleasant. But yeah.
CA just needs to turn off the water to all homes that are valued under 800K. those "poor" little nothings dont deserve running water.
They tried that in Detorit but the Left went ape shit over it and demanded that everyone get free water because they say free water is a basic human right. It's all just more socialized big-govt knows best and the poor sheeple are too stupid to do anything for themselves mentality. The country is finished.
The farmers get nearly free water, and will continue to under Herr Brown's orders. Cadillac Desert, encore.
magine how we feel in California..
dehydrated...
I have a better question:
Has the US been out of a recession since 2008?
View from the street says we never left the last recession.
The 2001 recession." 2001, A Debt Odyssey".
Recession? Have we seen real U.S. growth in recent memory? All I recall seeing is monetization and financialization. As I recall the acronym "GDP" has "Product" at the end of it... when your product is money, you have no product.
capitalism
eating it's own tail..
Did it ever leave the recession?
I have always felt we never left the 2001 recession.
If we are then we've upgraded from the depression we've been in since 2000.
Beat me to it. So, bullish then?
I've got my application in for the next round of QE.....I'm pretty excited about it.
Hey Dr. E., hear from Fonz recently?
He sent me a link to an article not too long ago. He still reads the Hedge, more for the comments than anything else.
I always considered him to be one of the great ones here. I remember the first time he responded to one of my comments. It was like standing at a urinal, looking at the guy next to you, and realizing it's celebrity like Emo Phillips or Bobcat Goldthwait.
I was once changing planes at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport. I walked into the nearest men's room, past some giggling frat-boy looking young men. Thought nothing of it. Went to the urinal, started returning the in-flight coffee. The guy next to me was Ron Jeremy. I shit you not.
Did you uh, look?
I had to google the name - now I feel sorry for you.
He could make a good President.
We've already been in a depression for a long time. It's just been masked by easy credit, massive leverage, and mountains of debt.
it isn't a depression if you print enough money for the rich...or it isn't a lie if you believe it
George Costanza!
No worries, Hillary or Jeb will get the USA borrowing (more) again.
Oh, I do hope they can get us pre-approved for more t-bills and put our future on layaway like the last few presidents.
There's your 'Hope and Change!' Bitchez!
It's the dreaded ( Megaphone Top ) sarc. Looks like one, feels like one.....
I was born in 1966 and moved out on my own in 1983. As far as my experience goes, it's been nothing but recession ever since and I've lived my life accordingly. That outlook has served me pretty darned well.
At least since the mid-90s, all "growth" has been abstract, vapor; as "nuubee" puts it, "monetization and financialization...when your product is money, you have no money."
I'd say we're in a recession all right, but that implies you were in a better position from which you have receded. That I have not seen.
Born in '64. And from what I've seen over that same period of time, I think you've nailed it.
Born in 55 and agree. Once a time where in finance there were hundreds of small shops and easy to get something then jump to another firm to increase pay. Getting a job now depends on who u know and wages going nowhere.
I made things even tougher on myself by not getting a college degree. For me, it's been entirely who I know. Fortunately, I make a great first impression and I can learn how to do anything. Also, I started from the very bottom, sweeping floors and emptying trash cans. I learned how to find the task nobody wanted to do, and get good at it. Soon enough, my problem wasn't finding work; it was getting paid enough for the work I did. I've gotten better at that over the years.
Having low expectations, a spirit of hopeful pessimism, and the conviction that if I'm going to spend half my waking life working I'm damned well going to enjoy it helps a lot too.
"Having low expectations, a spirit of hopeful pessimism, and the conviction that if I'm going to spend half my waking life working I'm damned well going to enjoy it helps a lot too."
Took me a while to figure that one out.....but yep, that is some truth right there.
everyone is trying to maintain their STATUS quo. This means giving up the kid's private education to make sure you keep the country club. It's all about sacrifice and keeping lifestyle in balance, you know--like just going to Florida instead of St Lucia, or living in a 2500 sqft home rather than the 3600, driving an audi rather than that range rover. Sometimes life is just cruel.
Seriously, we have never recovered... well, many of us. And so we look forward /sarc/ to a life of diminished expectations, realizing that everything has just turned to crap. Except we wake up everyday, go to work, laugh, live, drink knowing that it all is just meaningless. Quoting Meatballs, "it just doesn't matter".
True 'Dat. I'm self-employed and work with a number of corporations on a per-project basis so I see into a lot of corporate cultures. One of my clients just did a wave of Headquarters layoffs. Some of the people I know who got canned were living beyond their means on $250,000 - $400,000 a year. I know a couple who both got canned; no kids. They had just moved into their $900,000 "dream home," with 6 bedrooms and at least that many bathrooms, and their rides are worth more (together) than my house.
These are the kinds of people who, whenever I talk to them, have chewed their fingernails down to blood, obsess about office politics and whether or not they're going to lose their jobs; hate their work, bosses and lives; drink way too much and take anti-depressants and stomach acid suppressors etc. They tell me they admire my willingness to go out on my own but say they never could because they need to keep a corporate gig for "the security."
They have one boss, whom they hate, fear, and can't afford to lose. I had about 20 different bosses (erm, "clients") last year. I fired one of them for being more of a pain in the ass than the work was worth.
OK, so I drive a Toyota Yaris and have a less-than-swanky home. I actually have to use the same bathroom every day of the week. I can't golf unless I'm putting between a fiberglass clown's legs. My kids go to public school. We went tent-camping on our last vacation. I also don't have a penny in debt, and well over a year's worth of income saved. Or at least, wrapped in plastic next to the holed-out hull of my boat in that nearby body of water. Darned boating accidents.
yes we are. therefore, since rates are going to increase, and there is no debt ceiling, i think its time for some rebate checks to go out, like in 2008. i'll gladly take a $2K check from uncle sam and spend it on beer.
Better off buying the equipment to brew your own and a still to make the hard stuff. Maybe some nice LED Lighting arrays so you can grow the green stuff.
Given they require 2 consecutive data inputs, which they control, delivered weeks in arrears, with a promise of multiple subsequent revisions, revisions that coincide with releases of new 'current' data, they make it impossible to ever be in recession (in their minds), just as one can never recapture one's youth.
It's Communist so what does a recession matter?
Thesis – Antithesis – Synthesis…Kansas Politicians Call For Changing the Constitution
Russia Like The U.S. Wants U.N. to Manage Internet Infrastructure
NSA Claims TOR Guards Your Privacy Yet TOR Is In Bed With U.S. Government
Best line of the century is Mandy Drury asking Lynn Tilton if she thinks the SEC is out on a witch hunt.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000367866&play=1
Must throw more Seniors under the bus to avert reccession and keep Bankers whole ...
http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lz1lwc25ox1rnua94o1_500.gif
Hey at least The Fed admits its policies are actually causing problems.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/On-The-Economy/2014/September/What-Does-Money...
"During the first and second quarters of 2014, the velocity of the monetary base2 was at 4.4, its slowest pace on record. This means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4.4 times in the economy during the past year, down from 17.2 just prior to the recession. This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Fed’s large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. Thus, it is precisely the sharp decline in velocity that has offset the sharp increase in money supply, leading to the almost no change in nominal GDP (either P or Q)."
Meatballs is the operative word.
Everytime my wife serves meatballs it was in a recession.
She served metaballs in 2001, meatballs in 2008 and guess what?
Meatballs for dinner last night. We're fucked!!
As an ex Fed head just said, the Fed can't make things better, just make them look better for a bit.
Recession started in 2007. Barry jacked the debt from 10T to 18.5T in 7 years. Lot's of McJobs and growth from Barrycare. This is what 8.5T in debt got us.
You fucking asshole barry - rot in hell.
give it up.
this is ridiculous. Barry,,as you call him..got handed a shit economy and defaulted to the tried and previously thought anecdote to a shitty economy--spend, spend spend.
A President does not cause a shitty economy. The world spun out of control during the last 20 years and we've been forestalling the economic decline with velcro and crazy glue.
What makes you think there's a dime bit of difference between a Repubber or Demo?
So who makes all the money on the T-Bill trades that were caused by Barry's 8 trillion issuance? Is that what Goldman does among other things. Take from the US to give to the Central Bank, and make a little vig on it?
Not so much to you, but the three scholars that upvoted: Really?
Barryum Enima is simply another in a long line of Banker Puppets. Ignore the D. or the R. to the left of the name on the ballot. Ignore the skin color or background.
Debt is the coin of the realm. Debt is how the world runs. Even when the debt is destroyed through default the system will be rebuilt on debt.
That's both the banking system and the political system.
Since Lehman™
A while back a young lady of 19 years, in college, asked me why the economy has been so bad since 2008.
I had to delay in answering her, because the question can be addressed on so many levels.
The first word that popped into my mind was "greed"
I told her that hers was a question that could be covered in an economics class, but also a psychology class, or a sociology class.
What others?
History is full of good lessons for her too
probably touches on philosophy also.
The Recession ended in 2009. It's been a fantasy world ever since. I'm amazed at how many people i "try" to speak to , who do not understand it ALL ended in 2009.
All the illegals will take up the slack...
No one cares if the energy sector depresses GDP.
Just got back from H&R Block. My2015 Obamacare penalty for Family of 4 was listed at $900 AND 2016 was estimated at $2200. They must be showing taxpayers these numbers to scare them into paying premiums.
Its just cover for NIRP.
The BDI is lower than in 2008.Then in the 900 area, now 558. Nothing is shippig around the world.
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
So much bearish news today, but it's just so bullish!!!!
Yet here we are, just 2% off the all-time highs. It just amazes me.
Be careful posting this stuff, ZH. They might shut you down soon for talking the truth.
Pretty sure we are not in a recession until the government says we are in a recession. It's a method we borrowed from the Soviets.
yes and right on time given the lag after oil prices collapse. oil price change greater than 33% decline always indicates a recession (3 for 3 inthe past 15 years)....there is a multi-month lag where the conversation tends towards cheap gas being a 'tax cut' but ignoring the collapse in energy capex, hiring, and layoffs. standard issue.
The complete lack of common sense just baffles me...
VALPARAISO | Portage resident DelRea Good said she did not immediately pull over for the flashing lights behind her because, as a 52-year-old woman traveling alone at 11:21 p.m. on a dark county road, she was concerned for her safety.
Assuming the car behind her was a police officer, Good said she slowed her vehicle, put on her emergency flashers, waved her arm out the window to acknowledge the pursing car and continued for less than a mile where she pulled over into the lighted parking lot at the Kohl's department store in Portage.
The decision not to immediately stop resulted in her being handcuffed and taken to jail by Porter County Sheriff's Department Patrolman William Marshall on a felony charge of resisting arrest. It may also cost her her job, because a nurse cannot work after being convicted of a felony, she said.
"I felt I didn't do anything wrong," Good said. "I got to a safe place and I told him that."
Porter County Sheriff's spokesman Sgt. Larry LaFlower said, "The sheriff's office supports our officer's decision in this matter."
He cited state law requiring motorists to yield to emergency vehicles and said Marshall was driving a fully marked squad car and used the lights and siren.
Marshall wrote in the incident report he initiated the March 20 traffic stop just north of County Road 700 North on northbound County Road 500 West (Airport Road) after clocking Good's car traveling 54 mph in a 35 mph zone. Good told The Times she was unsure how fast she was driving.
Marshall acknowledged Good waved out her car window and turned on her flashers before pulling over less than a mile later in the store parking lot.
Good said Marshall was very angry as he approached her car and said to her, "What in the hell are you doing? I could arrest you for this."
Good said she was surprised by his reaction and told him to stop yelling at her.
Marshall described Good in his report as "highly agitated and uncooperative." She reportedly told him she was aware he was a police officer, but drove to where she felt safe.
"I don't care who you are I don't have to stop on a county road, I'm a single female," Marshall quoted her as saying.
After Good refused to listen to how her actions put her and others in danger, Marshall said he arrested her.
Good, who said she did not resist the arrest or make any further comments, claims the officer bruised her arm while leading her to his police car and continued to "bully" her at the jail by claiming Advil and other medications she had were controlled substances.
Good, who reportedly has no prior criminal record, said as a nurse, she is accustomed to following rules.
"I follow rules every day or people could get hurt," she said.
She is scared about the impact of a felony conviction, but said the issue is bigger than just herself.
"This is serious," she said. "This could be your mom, your sister, your daughter next time."
Defense attorney Bob Harper, who is representing Good, said her concerns about pulling over along a dark county road are not unwarranted.
He referred to a case in 1991 where a woman pulled over in Valparaiso for a car with flashing red lights and was attacked by a man pretending to be a police officer.
Portage police issued a warning two years ago after someone using flashing red and blue lights, possibly impersonating a police officer, tried to get a woman to pull over.
Portage Police Sgt. Keith Hughes said at the time the woman used good judgment by not stopping for the man.
He recommended drivers call 911 if they question who is attempting to pull them over and if unable to reach a dispatcher, acknowledge the officer by waving at them and then drive to a well-lit public location before stopping and tell the officer about your concern.
lack of common sense by the nurse or the officer?
The officer and the prosecutor. Two years ago they told the public to do exactly what this woman did and now are charging her with a felony for doing just that?
agreed. nothing like a high school bully grown up with a gun, a taser and the power to arrest.
I hear ya. There are peace officers (good guys) and Goons with a badge.
Need a war to push product.
It's coming, be patient.
Hilary or Jeb will give it to you.
They will make you want Obozo back.
You're being massively mind f'cked.
None of you see it.
"What difference does it make?" ....overheard at the water cooler
This news isn't going to stall off that FED rate hike.... and California will be out of water before Halloween.
A Recession before the most imporant election in history.
Unthinkable.
Yeah, its not like they didnt engineer this before
Already in???
Stupid question
America never left a recession
Merely entered a Lewis Carroll novel
Yes we are. Never left it.
But for theatrical reasons the Fed has to pretend to raise rates before being 'forced by economic conditions' to return to monetization.
It is a very macabre and Soviet theater, where they must pretend to be ready to discharge the corpse as a recovered patient before they 'discover' he has had another heart attack while being wheeled from the hospital.
if your neighbor loses his job, its a recession. if you lose your job, it's a depression...
Recession = more printing. Lever up, bitches.
fewer people have more cash than ever, manufacturing and many white collar jobs leave even as Indian IT workers and unskilled Latin Americans flood in....a military with troops in over 100 countries, a foreign policy that never runs out of freshly baked fiat to overthrow governments, or resupply the bombing of hospitals [prior to payments to those doing the bombing to rebuild said hospitals... on paper, anyway]...
whether or not its a "recession"....
shit's fucked up.
CNBC also had a broadcast on this, as well as the Iran article on here. LMAO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAwVIZDAUF0
Seriously? We never left the last one.
Lead, bitchez!