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Dear Texas, Welcome To The Recession
Earlier today, when looking at the latest Factory Order data we saw that based on historical patterns if only in US manufacturing (if not in the recent seasonally-adjusted "hiring" of waiters and bartenders) the US is already in a recession. Ironically, this came out on the day in which the BLS presenting some more amusing "data" suggesting that only 268K workers filed initial claims in the past week, one of the lowest numbers of the second great depression.
Which is great for political propaganda purposes, however, for an accurate perspective we decided to look at a provider of job data that is actually representative of what happens in the real world not some goalseeked Arima-X-12 spreadsheet.
Here is what Challenger Gray found when looking at the latest monthly data:
Through the first quarter of 2014, employers announced 140,214 job cuts, up 15.6 percent from the 120,341 cuts tracked the first three months of 2014. The first quarter saw 17 percent more job cuts than in the final quarter of 2014, when 119,763 job cuts were recorded.
Of the 140,214 job cuts announced in the first quarter, 47,610 were directly attributed to falling oil prices.
“Without these oil related cuts, we could have been looking one of lowest quarters for job-cutting since the mid-90s when three-month tallies totaled fewer than 100,000. However, the drop in the price of oil has taken a significant toll on oil field services, energy providers, pipelines, and related manufacturing this year,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
True, if we exclude all the negative data, all we are left with is good data. Continuing:
First quarter job cuts were dominated by the energy sector, where employers announced 37,811 job cuts in the first three months of 2015. The three-month total is up a whopping 3,900 percent compared to a year ago, when fewer than 1,000 energy cuts were reported.
“Oil companies are not the only energy-related firms who are getting hit this year. Coal mine closings in West Virginia and elsewhere around the country are also costing jobs,” noted Challenger.
Let's ignore coal mines for now and focus only on energy.
What we find is that while Challenger has found "only" 37.8K energy-related layoffs in the first quarter, when broken down by state, things get bad for Texas, very bad. As in recession bad, because with 47K total layoffs, or 10K more than all energy-related layoffs, in just this one state so far in 2015, it means that the energy sector weakness has moved beyond just the oil patch and has spread to the broader economy and related industries in the one state that until recently had the best jobs track record since Lehman.
Putting this in perspective, once again, here are the job gains for Texas and everyone else:
So, to loosely paraphrase Tim Geithner, "Dear Texas: Welcome to the Recession"
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Too bad for dumbfuck Perry.
Your downvoter must be blissfully unaware that all governors are either dumbfucks, criminals or dumbfuck criminals.
Long live Corzine ...........you thought I forgot about him huh...
"Too bad for dumbfuck Perry"
Yeah, since he isn't the Governor anymore?
Perry 2016!
He must bring the glasses!
p.s. - /s
California is in second place...
But,but,but...-
Governor Moonbeam said we were all okay now! You mean California is second in the nation at losing jobs?!? How can that be???? We're supposed to have the PC socialist wet dream going on here! I mean, bullet trains to nowhere and all! WTF?!? /sarc /sarc /sarc (triple sarcasm off).
For California, another "benefit" of the fracking "Industry" - http://sfpublicpress.org/news/2014-05/groundwater-depletion-is-destabilizing-the-san-andreas-fault-and-increasing-earthquake-risk
Not exactly reassuring, is it.
Teflon Jon? Too late?
Or that Perry isn't governor of Texas.
Gary Johnson wasn't bad for a governor...
Of course these low oil prices are bad for the oil industry. What will happen when these companies can't afford to meet their obligations and pay back their debt. You know their forecast models weren't based on <$40/barrel oil. They were more in the range of $80-$100/barrel. I don't think the American public will go along with another industry bailout (whether its the banks who made the loans of the oil industry itself). Most have woke up to the fact that the bailouts hurt the middle class and filled the pockets of the 'elite'.
I've been hearing lots of predictions about September 1015 having a game changing event. I don't usually like these predictions, but they are effective for helping me stay on track of preparing. Even if it remains a slow collapse, the things I'm doing today will be useful. I can always drink my water, eat my food, and utilize the skills I'm learning. The silver I am buying at these low prices will be worth much more in 5,10, 20 years. I'm giving these candles with silver coins to my family this Easter: https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers. They help trigger curiosity into real money. Once you hold silver in your hands you realize it is truely valuable.
Red states don't get bailed out regardless of there regional industries.
Not unless there is a Republican in charge.
> Of course these low oil prices are bad for the oil industry. What will happen when these companies can't afford to meet their obligations and pay back their debt. You know their forecast models weren't based on <$40/barrel oil. They were more in the range of $80-$100/barrel.
Now, if you accept the argument that the artificial "lowering" of oil prices was solely intended to "bankrupt" Russia (and thereby facilitate full NATO / Western expansion into ALL Ukraine (including Crimea / Donbass)), then maybe you'll be receptive to the idea that once "Regime Change" was effected (which would by necessity have included VV Putin's removal), oil prices would have been allowed to "recover" by a similar totally controlled process.
This hasn't happened. So maybe what was originally assessed as a "minor risk" (since Ukraine was seen as an "easy target", especially with all the Westerm MSM propaganda campaign), has in fact become a major "unintended consequence", the full ramifications of which are yet to emerge.
In the meantime those "Western Sanctions" (that are so constructed as to be in effect a blockade - "Act of War" anyone??) have had a severe effect on the EU economies, especially those Countries that previously enjoyed a healthy trade with Russia (e.g. Italy), Russia has by choice and necessity turned Eastwards, and both China and Russia have made very significant moves to insulate their economies from Western interference / sanctions, as well as greatly improving their mutual political, and military, connections.
Seems "Isolated" Russia is winning this little conflict hands down, and it also seems that the Western PTB are running out of options other than direct engagement.
Wonder how THAT will turn out.
Exports to Russia - just foodstuffs say, it is Germany, Netherlands, Poland before you get to Greece (biggest non-EU trade partner), Italy, Spain, Turkey - now New Zealand and Argentina are getting access and you would be surprised how many tomato growers in Turkey thrive on Russian orders
There is a LOT of Turkish produce appearing in Russian supermarkets (fruit, veg., dairy), and their imports have supplanted imports from "traditional" markets (e.g. Western Europe). http://rt.com/business/180776-turkey-agricultural-exports-russia/
Russian relatives tell me the quality is at least comparable, maybe better, so even "if" the "sanctions" are lifted, the long-term damage has been done, and the West will have to work really hard to regain market share.
As for visible damage to the EU "Economy" - http://rt.com/business/180320-greece-hit-russian-sanctions/ Seems Greece is having a particularly hard time, so there may be a lot more to the "Russian Pivot" than the Western MSM have indicated . . . .
Perry, soon-to-be-convicted felon.
good, hopefully this will help stop people from moving here..I'd like to see property values go down as well....
When the great CA exodus happens, we're going to have to get together to figure out a system that keeps them moving past us. I hear that Louisiana has a lot of water.
Hopefully Texas contues to slide down fast, and there will be no jobs for them....lots of libtards will go to washington, oregon, Colorado, Idaho..we may get a few but the hard core leftists will go elsewhere.....Texas really needs to keep pot illegal here...CO stold a lot of libs from us because of that
You could make pot legal, but prevent welfare from being handed out and it would have a much greater effect than just legalizing pot in another state. The drug war is just welfare for cops and the DEA.
While I agree with you in priciple...I'd much rather have the cops and DEA making money then having retards moving here....trust me I lived in Cali for 10 years....you don't want that trash here!
I'd rather have neither. No welfare, and the Cali people will avoid you like the plague, at least for finding a place of residence. I'm talking let people starve to death if they cannot figure out how to make money or grow their own food no welfare. Private entities should of course do what they want, but nothing from the government. The entire country is a loooooooooong way away from that. It would be unfathomable to the California mind.
Texas already has shitty welfare....should help us quite a bit...thankfully Austin is getting too expensive and crowded....and already home prices are dropping in cali, a lot of be unable to move and cali people hate other parts of Texas.
"Nobody goes to Austin any more. It's always too crowded."
Austin is played out and jumped the shark 7 years ago....I hate Austin, I never go there and I never go to Travis County.
Austin sucks now. Even at South by Southwest events they now need riot police the crowds are so large and 'diverse.' I left long ago when all the new houses were being bought up by Cali people and the city council became dominated by RE developers and related interests; knew bad things were coming. Used to be a nice college town, and safe. Now crime is out of control, traffic incredible and pollution on red alert more days then not.
Texas already has shitty welfare....should help us quite a bit
Live(d) in Holland for 40 years.... Pot really not an issue at all. Also lived in the UK a few years and never seen so many harddrugs in the partyscene as I have seen there (even though we're still the number 1 producer of synthetics in the world.
The biggest issue with pot (or anything else) is the growers. As long as they remain in the semi-legit or illegal trade, problems arise such as extortion, violence, bribery etc. That's the main issue we still have here. Problems with drunken people outweighs the problems with dope heads by 100-fold if not more.
Legalize growth, selling, trafficing and owning pot. (At the same time, enter-short on Mexico).
NO you are wrong. It's not Pot that I have a problem with. It's the people who smoke it that I hate. We must keep the liberal potheads out of Texas.
Truthfully, I would rather have "liberal potheads" than neocon warmongers.
Dont pigeon hole users. They arent all chasing unicorns.
RIPS
No one is coming to your shit-hole of a state, except Mexicans. Stop whining.
Good. I'd rather have undocumented Mexicans move here than retarded californians. Viva la mexico
Texas was good in the 80's and 90's, now and since then its a shithole. I hate it here (htown) except for the cheap standard of living. Too many illegals, too many liberals, too many bad drivers, too many shitheads. Its like this all over now. Im thinking Utah or Montana is my next destination.
Agreed. I live in H-town too. I want to escape desperately. Both my husband and I are native Houstonians. Our families are still here. He has an elderly father to take care of. Kid is established here with friends and activities, etc. So we are kind of stuck for now. We have a business here. But I'm still trying to figure out a way to get the hell out sooner than later.
Tough call, but Mexicans are several generations closer to being hunter-gatherers than the Califlower children.
California has suffered from a smaller version of what is destroying America: it became successful enough to attract waves of socialist nincompoops.
A side issue. If reports I read from time to time are correct, Texas is now all but a majority minority state. Add up Mexicans, Blacks, Oriental, Arabs and then the old style whites, and the minorities could run the state. Also, Mexicans all but consider Texas to be theirs, and the whites are sitting on Mexico's Texas. I just think this should be kept in mind in any discussion of Texas. The conservative white Texan, and I knew lots of them when I was in the military, is not going to be a majority population ever again in Texas. How do you, who live there, think about this? Myself, I would leave before I lived in such a state. How do White Conservative Texans think about their minority status fast coming on?
I myself am not a conservative/liberal "Texan" but being White (which I am) in Texas does not really bother me, as racism down here is irrevelant compared to other states. What matters down here is money. People are care more about green than other color. If there is one thing about Texas, racism is not a problem as long as you dont act like a stereotypical jackass of any race. Its a melting pot of diff cultures and everyone gets along for the most part. The mexicans are the majority it seems but they are cool. That being said, I still hate it here. Its just too overcrowded everywhere, that is why Im heading to Montana or Utah.
First of all you live in the wrong part of Texas....Move to hte sticks it's awesome. Also, I'd rather Texas become part of Mexico anyway....at least with corruption you where everyone stands.
Also you do know that liberal californians are moving in droves to MT and are very clsoe to turning that state into a liberal hell hole. Also, mormons are weird in UT
Mormons I can deal with, I like Utah alot. Montana is a more of a bugout but it's interesting.
My brother lives there, he does not like the Mormons...he's totally excluded
@JackBurton
Texas is 70+% white. My county is 94% white. You're info is wrong.
Republicans control all statewide Texas offices, both houses of the state legislature and have a majority in the Texas congressional delegation. We'll be red for a while.
I give it red for another 10+ years depending on how moves here.
;)
Hispanics (of any race) were 37.6% of the population of the state, while Non-Hispanic Whites composed 45.3%.
Whites are 45.3% not 70% UNLESS you consider light skinned hispanics white. If you do, then do you consider them of teh same ethnic and cultural group as Texas white europeans?
Seems to me, White European Texans are under 50% now, and losing ground fast.
But YES, technically, you are right, and I am wrong.
Do you mind if the conservative potheads stay?
I'm not sure one exisits.....but I guess that's ok, if you belive in Jesus
welfare for cops and the DEA and, especially, the private for-profit prison complex.
DEA are parasites. Idiots given a badge, lots of guns, and way too much power. Incidently, a lot of drugs never makes it from the arrest site to the police storage. Even in my tiny town of 3,000 people, 2 cops and 1 sheriff [the drug control officer] were caught red handed looting the drug evidence locker. The Union actually saved all three of them their jobs, and they are back arresting citizens for drug offenses, after being drug thieves themselves. The power of fucking Unions is unbelieveable!
Any state the libtards fled to was ruined.
They fled California so they started instituting the same policies that ruined California.
For the most part, they don't fit in in NM, but there are a few places here that they get along. The eastern part of the state might as well be West Texas in terms of culture, so it sure as hell isn't there. Albuquerque is big enough that they can just keep their mouths shut and not be noticed. But places like Santa Fe is where they'll thrive. The Santa Fe city council was going to ban high cap mags a couple of years ago, which is a big no-no in the state. A big enough no-no that I was going to go stand in front of the Santa Fe city council chamber with a pistol on my hip and a high cap mag and call the cops on myself had it passed. But even the cops were backing way off saying that it was impossible to enforce.
Much respect.
they went to las vegas, and sure as fuck had an impact. that was 98. imagine it is a lot worse now. up here in snota we got 50 percent uber lib tards. tax and spend on schools. never enuf.
former senator the loonie dayton as gov with billion dollar surplus and he wants to spend it like a drunken lottery winner... fucking insanity up here. proposing gas tax increases on top of huge surplus, a program to wipe everybodies ass from cradle to grave.
They have inflitrated Northern Nevada as well. Here in Reno they are running rampant and we are going down fast. At least the voters showed a bit of sense and turned the state legislature red this past November. However, they are all pretty shitty in my opinion. The voters voted down a Margin Tax to fund Education, now they are trying to pass it through the back door at the legislature. When will they learn that spending more on Education does not make the kids smarter!
Love those high cap mags. When I go hunting deer, I like nothing better that to pump fifty rounds into those little fuckers.
You're doing it wrong. The standard cap 30 rounders are for two legged pieces of shit like you and that 20 pointer in my avatar.
For hog hunting, I use 100 round drums. If you're good, you can kill five or more of those bastards.
You, madam, are a moron. When I carry a pistol, it is generally for self defense. I've had to use it too. Never had to pull the trigger, but just having it saved my ass. If I have to pull the trigger, I don't plan on getting killed for a lack of shooting back. And Santa Fe was going to call 11+ rds high capacity, not 50. Besides, what does it matter to you if I have 30 rounds or 36 rounds strapped to my hip? Don't assault me, and I won't use them on you. It's simple, really.
And when I kill a quadruped, I prefer to do it with as few rounds as possible. The effects of a rifle on soft tissue can ruin a lot of meat. I watched a decent shot from a 7mm mag ruin an entire quarter of an elk the last time I went elk hunting. The meat between the ribs looked like bloody straw, and that was just one shot. Hell, I ruined 15lbs-20lbs with an '06 on a shot that liquefied the lungs and shocked the spine.
History shows that in the long run, any form of government ruins a country.
Of course we are at the point where government is closing in on ruining the world.
Texas, welcome to it.
To hell with the land values, I just want those Damn Liberal Yankees to quit moving here and telling us we can't carry guns. Remember/reference the growing/shrinking city populations. Never mind the illegals...
"Putting this in perspective, once again, here are the job gains for Texas and everyone else:"
So, Jobs VWAP for Texas?
http://redefininggod.com/2015/03/the-illuminati-strategy-of-tension-and-...
It seems to be the globalists’ hope that the coming “Fed-created” economic tsunami will sweep Ron Paul into the US presidency in 2016, Marine LePen into the French presidency in 2017, and an as-yet-unidentified Mises Mafia candidate into the Brazilian presidency in 2018 (to name but a few nations). This gives us some idea as to the time scale with which the globalists are working.
Currently, I expect the “climax” (the point of inflection at which the media message transitions from “things are getting worse and worse” to “things are turning around”) to come before the end of 2016. The release of tension (which will involve sweeping the Mises Mafia into political office and fully implementing the planned supranational “solutions”) should continue for years thereafter. Fortunately for us, our awareness can grow much faster than they can unfold their NWO."
What? Do you have any idea how crazy Ron Paul (did you mean Rand?) in 2016 and Mises Mafia sounds?
Just get famous on Youtube and make some of that internet money. It's really simple....
Oops, looks like the Bush clan, just got rid of another competitor. Christie. Done. Perry. Done. Next up ????
Perry is a shrivled old fruit, he'd never get close to the presidency. Wait a sec!
Bush/Perry 2016.
I'm vomiting at the thought and once upon a time I voted Republican.
We knew it was coming and in the long run we can deal with it.....
The numbers don't really mean anything when we can adjust the NFP anyway and anyhow we need in order to keep the B/S flowing.
If you have the most jobs (and perhaps created the most), your are going to have more layoffs, all things being equal. I bet when you compare all the numbers, Texas is statistically right in line with the others.....
I don't think it can be argued that Texas and North Dakota have carried the country in terms of the economy and job creation.
Getting tired of seeing those CA, IL, NJ, NY, CT, NV license plates anyways!
Same! But if they are doing the speed limit in the fast lane, they don't have no steenkin papers.
Obozo has a woody.
The whacko liberals don't like Texas anyway.
Only the liberal states matter.
Maybe that's because the "liberal" states pay their own way.
Texas will still do better than everyone else due to the lower taxes and plenty of dreamers to fill low wage jobs.
Maybe I should move to Texas to take advantage of this opportunity our government gave us by giving us all these Americans in Waiting
a low wage job to help lower the costs to a business so I can increase my profits margins by not hiring actual citizens who the government forces businesses to discriminate against because someone will take a job for less.
There's something I heard of one time, although I'm not to sure it wasn't just a fairy tale, called a free market. Am I saying that right, free market? Yeah I think it's where a business is allowed to operate at a cost that makes the owner a profit to better himself without government involved.
Help me out if I'm remembering this wrong.
3-4% property tax granted on a lower amount but still the prices aren't lower by 65-75% vs most of the nation
Rockefeller republicans played this game with Texas in the eighties. Fuckin' carpet baggers.
only 80 layoffs in North Dakota...what's up with that?
10 oil workers, their private bartenders, and a cadre of strippers who went back to nyc/dc/hamptons for the summer
meh, fuck you haters. California is still the most beautiful country on Earth. And, like Greece, why should we live within our means when idiots will happily lend us money despite how clearly obvious it is that we have no means by which to pay it back? When money from idiots dries up, the welfare mobs can move on to their proper home - Mordor on the Potomac - and leave this beautiful country to those who want to work it.
And you guys know that there's more conservatives, even the dumber-than-a-sack-of-hammers and bigoteder than any Wahhabi that you all seem to love so much - in California than there populations in most other states.
hahah fuck you....I lived in that shit hole. Keep telling yourself whatever you need to keep you happy there. Please stay put.
Well, I still get a great deal of money for renting my beach property in Newport and can visit whenever I like. So sure, Cali is great, for some...
Just like most of the country once you get away from the big cites the rural areas are populated with level headed country folk. Guns, country and/or old time rock music and of course some bible thumpen. California is no different. Unfortunately the rural counties of California have very little representation in Sacramento or D.C. so they have to deal with the tards that run things. There is a movement to create the State of Jefferson in NorCal that will probably go nowhere as it requires the approval of the tards in Sacramento but the movement is popular.
Those 47K+ layoffs in TX will easily make up for the lost salary in gas savings and manufacturer smashed lower WalMart prices....
It's a WIN WIN
The only really good outcome from the coming implosion of our economy and country is that people will stop paying for services because they don't have jobs or will just refuse to handover their income to a thieving government and the illegals who received those benefits who will no longer get them will just return home and wait for the uptick.
Hopefully they return and stay to try to make their own country better rather than being used as political tools to their own destruction.
I agree. But why the hell is it taking so long? Should have happened years ago.
Tejas - AFDWB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfO8TcBa6I0&list=PLF513E8953B3EBDC3
The Jews have sold us out to the Chinese.
The sooner you come to grips with that reality, the better.
Poor Texas.
Jade Helm 15-17 are going to be tough on you.
Jade Helm could be THEIR Worst Nightmare. Texans are some of the most heavily armed - and ORNERY - and we don't hanker too kindly to any feds' attempt in 'Mastering The Human Domain."
I "heard" that any declaration of National/Regional Martial Law means IT'S ON!
Jade Helm 15 is more likely a recon mission to detect hot areas.
Same with JH 16 next year.
Full implementation with JH 17 under a new lunatic prezident.
They wouldn't have numbered them if they expected full implentation in 15.
Makes me think JH 01 was 911.
I live in Texas so don't believe the hype. Texas is all gun and no ammo. Hillbillies always talking hard from their comfy couch.
The Chinese want all guns confiscated.
That's an order and you will comply.
I'm not kidding.
The real fighting against red china is going to be along the AT.
If you want to fight, move East.
AT?
appalacian trail
Shhh!!!!
Don't need no crowds here.
Not in my circle. But More Ammo is never enough.
Bring it on feds! No more free Waco's! Shoot! Reload, Shoot! MORE AMMO
Live by fincialization, die by financialization...
look at the top three fuckers...
That California number would probably 4 times higher if you counted all the undocumented that no longer have an under the table job in the Cali agriculture industry.
True, however, the "good" jobs were created in Texas and around energy hubs. The undocumented jobs are low paying, and are not a viable solution for the average middle class Joe. That's why we have undocumented illegals taking those jobs because the documented people in the US will not take jobs that require 10+hrs in the sun picking berries. So when people bitch about illegals taking our jobs is BS, unless you are a low skilled laborer earning minimum wage.
Soon, many will have to learn how to pick berries in the sun - or give up their I-crap!
americans shouldn't have a choice whether or not to do those jobs. Work or starve. End the welfare state and immigration problem goes away
Altho, the california agriculture industry is toast. Millions of acres going fallow, and farmers are selling 20% of their underground water to the state. The sierras are bone dry, with another 9 months of any hope of rain or snow. Warmest weather on record predicted, etc etc.
This long in the tooth, not to mention idiotic day after day life saving event, of market range has to break soon. If something big doesn't come along to push this fucking garbage higher it's going down. I have to wonder if QE4 won't be announced shortly?
One wonders what Texas will do when the oil industry is practically zero by 2030.
Don't worry, they now have millions of those honest, skillful and hard-working Mexicans. They'll sort out the economy.
Maybe some ZH bloggers from TX will be happy to accept Share Croppers.
Fuck the Useless Snakes. Collective KARMA is a bitch. Stop the wars of aggression around the globe and stop supporting the ZioNAZIS of Israel.
Could just be that so few people are actually working enough hours, or earning enough salary, or working formally for "big companies", to even QUALIFY for unemployment claims anymore...
An obsolete and outdated metric...today's economy is much, much more insecure, casual, fragmented and informal to ever be measured like this.
Unless, maybe, you're one of the lucky ones who work for life in a measurable "big company"...
Texas just got californicated without the lefty whack jobs.
Your are misinformed! Go to Austin/Houston/Dallas!
The last Republican President was Ronald Reagan.
Bush family are monarchists.
Energy patch losing energy.....
What Republicanism not working out to well without that injection of oil.
Dont worry the Californians will be buying up your fire sale and bankruptcy assets.
Ouch that has go to hurt gut punch right in the ole reality.
Fucking LOLZ:
The last Republican President was Ronald Reagan
Asshat Regan sucked and let in a ton of illegals and started no-fault divorce
I hope he is rotting in fucking hell
The last "real" republican president was silent cal
I don't think Ronnie had a clue what was going on. Just like Obummer he was a front for the Permanent Rulers. He also let Phil Gramm do his destructive bit on the economy. In an act of unparalled chutzpah this guy has penned an erticle indetifying the 25 people most to blame forthe financial crisis.
http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1...
Extending Low Oil Prices Will Kick the U.S. 'growth' Economy right in the Nuts http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=264446.0
That graph range shows negative unemployment. Government staticians see the world differently. What is negative unemployment, maby when a politician gets a real job? When George Soros works at McDonalds?
Those are energy jobs. Not a problem.
[Let's ignore coal mines for now and focus only on energy.]
If coal isn't energy then what is it?
Recession lol
Seize the moment. Montana prostitutes are not included.