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Ahoy! Oil Tankers Form Four-Mile Line In Persian Gulf As Iran Talks Stoke Supply Glut Fears

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the US set to run out of on-land storage in the space of just three months and with the Iran nuclear deal still stuck in “tentative,” “maybe/maybe not,” purgatory (i.e. “we agree on the outline of a plan which will pave the way for an agreement but aren't sure how much of the plan or hypothetical agreement we want to share”), interesting times lay ahead for crude which, in a likely preview of what’s to come, traded in “deal or no deal” mode throughout Thursday’s session. With Tehran sitting on 9% of the world’s proven reserves, the lifting of sanctions and opening of the country’s oil fields to foreign investment could trigger a dramatic decline in crude prices as an extra million bpd gets set to be unleashed on an already saturated market

Meanwhile, crude exports from from Iraq are hitting three-and-a-half decade highs while production, at 3.7 million bpd, is humming along at a 50-year high despite the ISIS presence in the country. As Bloomberg reports, 5% of the world’s VLCC fleet is currently parked in the Persian Gulf outside the Basra Oil Terminal, where tankers are now waiting an average of 16 days driving shipping rates to multi-year highs in the process. Here’s more:

Iraq’s biggest oil exports in more than three decades and winter winds are helping to keep shipping rates at a six-year high as a four-mile line of supertankers waits to load the nation’s crude.

 

There are 22 of the industry’s biggest tankers, or almost 5 percent of the fleet, waiting to collect cargoes from the Basra Oil Terminal in the Persian Gulf, from where most of Iraq’s crude is shipped. The daily rate for supertankers transporting crude from the Middle East to Japan rose to $51,042 on Thursday, bringing the average for this year to $61,306, data from the Baltic Exchange in London show.

 

Iraq’s oil output is rising faster than any other nation in OPEC as supplies from its southern oil province expand even as Islamic State fighters seize parts of the north.

 

Tankers leaving Basra in the past week waited an average of 16 days, ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with about 10 days normally, said Odysseus Valatsas, chartering manager at Dynacom Tankers Management in Glyfada, Greece.

 

“The fact is it will definitely affect the market,” Valatsas, whose company’s biggest tankers can transport about 28 million barrels of crude, said by phone Thursday.

 

“The more ships that are missing in the market, the higher the chance the market has to go up.”

 

Iraq’s crude exports jumped 15 percent last month to 2.98 million barrels a day, the highest in 35 years, Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said by phone from Baghdad on Wednesday. The nation pumped 3.7 million barrels a day in March, the most since at least 1962, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

And supply from Iraq isn’t going to slow…

Iraq will increase its crude production capacity to 4.7 million barrels a day in 2020, from 3.7 million last year, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Feb. 10.

Against this backdrop, Deutsche Bank considers what happens to demand in the event a concrete deal with Iran is reached...

A potential deal could allow insurers to cover tankers transporting Iranian oil, thus paving the way for Iran to increase exports which have fallen 150% (from 2.5 mmbpd in mid-2012 to 1.0 mmbpd currently). 

 

The implications for crude tankers, while difficult to quantify, could be significant in our view. Best case is we estimate an incremental 1.5 mmbpd of seaborne supply would translate to demand for 40 VLCCs on a voyage adjusted basis, equal to over 6% of the world’s VLCC fleet and having the effect of making an already tight supply picture even tighter. 

...and then goes on to comment on the implications of this dynamic for crude prices and the floating oil storage play:

Another potential outcome from an Iran deal would be implications to oil prices. A sharp decline in spot and front month oil prices and potential resulting widening contango in the oil market could render the global floating storage trade profitable once again. So while we have said floating storage is very much “icing on the cake” rather than the central thesis to our positive view on the tanker space, the “risk” is very much to the upside in our view given the potential impact relatively minor levels of floating storage can have on spot rates (given already tight supply). 

This echoes what we said last month: "...the important point here is that Soc Gen believes finding the level where this becomes economically viable (i.e. profitable) can serve as an important guide for where crude is headed. In other words, the bank is looking for the front end of the curve to fall until the contango is wide enough to make the floating storage play enticing." 

*  *  *

All of the above comes at a time when, as a recent policy brief from Stanford points out, crude prices are likely to be constrained for the long haul by a confluence of factors including surging U.S. shale production, a weakening OPEC, the shale revolution spreading globally, efficiencies in drilling, and more natural gas substitution for oil. 

Whatever the case, what all of this suggests is that volatile times lay ahead for crude. 

 

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Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:49 | 5956392 Bill of Rights
Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:54 | 5956412 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Let me guess, its Putin's fault?

Do I get a potato now?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:01 | 5956443 maskone909
maskone909's picture

arrrrrr  the persian wenches spiggots were tappin garrrrrr

black gold is a flowwin thru them treacherous waters

soon they will beee moanin for a drone-in

garrrr

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:30 | 5956562 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

'Talk-like-a-pirate' day isn't until September, scallawag...   Arrr, but September is when all the fun is supposed to begin anyway.

'Tie that scurvy dog to the yard-arm...'

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:35 | 5956586 maskone909
maskone909's picture

forgive me lads but when i add to my stack of golden barnacles, i spark up my sea-weed and ravage my wench with my one-eyed sea monster and talk like this.  make sure you get your hooks on yer golden treasure while its on sale... 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:50 | 5956646 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

We lined up some folks.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:30 | 5956750 knukles
knukles's picture

Sure glad we ran out of oil in 1976 like they warned.
Putchur damned thermostats back to 50 in the winter and 85 in the summer, fucktard.
Where's my Hummer when I need it. 
                           Betchur glad you bought that Volt now, ain'tcha?
                       No, it's not the number of electric cars on the road doing this

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:53 | 5956979 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

Ahoy Polloi! ~ Oh wait, that dude got kicked off of ZH for correctly questioning the commonality between the last 3 FED chairs...

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:22 | 5957064 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

So..., did they say prices were going up, or down?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:47 | 5957078 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

ask your local jew [price fixing] banker...

 

But be careful on how you TRADE on that advice...

 

FFS ~ These days, a couple of well positioned syllables from a fat assed jew grandma*, at a particular moment, & with ALGO's correctly positioned in advanced warning, have more weight than 4 fucking miles of supertankers ANYWHERE...

 

* YES ~ This is how LOW [what pretends to be] 'civilization' has lowered itself to [in order to fancy the counterfeitting money printers]... The sooner these fat assed, fork tongued, jackals are tossed into oblivion, the sooner a just & equitable planet may emerge...

 

I'm not the first person IN HISTORY to identify this dynamic... 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:03 | 5957236 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

wow, man - all those tankers lined up...so vulnerable, so convenient. Black Flag anyone? 

US military could do one but of course theyve been flapping their piehole in public about going to war against iran irrespective of an agreement, so theiyve squandered their black flag opportunity through their lack of discretion and diplomacy.

sheesh. how fast is this empire collapsing if they cant even get a black flag right??

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:24 | 5957277 new game
new game's picture

anyone smell a rat in iraq, highest production and who is behind the scenes.

the rat is _____. clue, we invaded under false pretense.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 23:06 | 5957944 old naughty
old naughty's picture

you're right, on the surface...

deep down in the core...(eh in the DUMB), somting else...

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 00:01 | 5957998 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

A potential deal could allow insurers to cover tankers transporting Iranian oil, thus paving the way for Iran to increase exports which have fallen 150% (from 2.5 mmbpd in mid-2012 to 1.0 mmbpd currently). 

A quantative measure can increase by over 100% but not fall by over 100% since that would make it a zero. The fallen exports decreased by 60%. (2.5x.60=1.5mmbpd)

Someone needs to brush up on their math.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:53 | 5958417 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

blame Chenney

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:03 | 5957239 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

how do you have an article....with a completely visual title....and no pictures.   I got ripped off.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 23:19 | 5957960 old naughty
old naughty's picture

a,a,and 20 times more mean 80 mile-long line? Hummmm...

enough to plug up the gulf, no?

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 08:18 | 5958295 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

 "how do you have an article....with a completely visual title....and no pictures"

 

Because the effin length of a Seawise Giant oil tanker is 1,504 ft...

 

So ~ assuming they were practically moored together, that's only a line of 14 tankers to equal 4 miles [less than 14 tankers assuming spacing]... Not a particularly alarming visual...

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:56 | 5958424 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Vizualize this: 4 mile long line of tankers

a nice linear target for IS iL, or iS Is, or some terror group or eran to attack and sink then the war starts and prices rise  Problem of the glut solved.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:12 | 5957274 greyghost
greyghost's picture

!!!!!CUE!!!!!! oil"price."com .......again...in 1 2 3

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:44 | 5957693 fastrakn1
fastrakn1's picture

"No, it's not the number of electric cars on the road doing this"

Then it must be the fact that we lowered the speed limit to 55 for all those years that did it, huh?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:34 | 5956757 enforcer92677
enforcer92677's picture

We ravaged some wenches....

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:03 | 5956454 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

 

Sir, that would be ‘potatoe’ (ala Dan Quayle).

What a spud!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:11 | 5956480 Midas
Midas's picture

After Joe Biden a misspelled word doesn't seem like such a "gaffe."

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:35 | 5956760 BigRedRider
BigRedRider's picture

 

 

I frown on anyone who can't spell a word more than one way. ---Mark Twain

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:02 | 5957576 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

Mark Twain never met Dan Quayle....

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:26 | 5956549 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

How about we belly up with Vlad to a shot Grand Teton potato vodka...?

 

 

 

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:07 | 5956822 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

No that would be the collective fault of the worlds CB's, and USA, trying to fuck Putin over for not playing fiat game. The bad thing, depending who you ask, is that massive unemployment is striking. You know the bellwether for the economy is copper... copper mines, the global leaders, are gearing up to shit can thousands of workers...

Come join us for free at www.gunsgrubandgold.com

For all your survival needs! 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:13 | 5957034 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture
Freeport-McMoRan Cuts Dividend 84% After Commodities Drop--March 24, 2015

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/freeport-mcmoran-cuts-...

 

It's all part of the Communty Organizer's recovery.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:51 | 5957374 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

(Ukraine inflation 111%.) AFTER the TPTB flew Ukraine's gold out of the country? Duh. Whocouldafigured? :-)

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:50 | 5956397 stant
stant's picture

Doesn't Iran have a bunch of tankers lined up offshore filled with hi sulphur crude it couldn't sell for diesel full production? I read sometime back that was from the sanctions and is that now headed to market

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:04 | 5956456 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The Iranian oil is like the thick crap from Venezuela. If there is a glut of light sweet crude, no one is going to buy it.

Interesting that you do NOT hear about Libyan oil exports versus a few years ago. Libyan oil is the good stuff.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:28 | 5956557 ebear
ebear's picture

"If there is a glut of light sweet crude, no one is going to buy it."

Refineries buy the type of crude they're set up to process.  Switching grades is an expensive proposition and would only be done if a significant and reliable future stream of light crude became available.

So, how likely is that?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:39 | 5956600 froze25
Fri, 04/03/2015 - 22:05 | 5957846 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

I think there is a civil war in Libya and they are not exporting anything right now.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:23 | 5956535 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Remember a few months back when bullishness was rampant, even here on ZH? Still laughing my ass off, and I bet lots of dumb money is still holding losing positions in futures and/or oil ETF's.

 

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:39 | 5956601 ebear
ebear's picture

I'm guessing most traders on ZH either threw in the towel in 08, or cut their exposure to a fraction of what it was prior.  I did, and there's nothing special about me that I'm aware of, so I take that as average.  Maybe I'm wrong, but there comes a point when the odds are so stacked against you that the only winning strategy is to not play.

Curious to know what others feel about this.

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:21 | 5957305 FlameSky
FlameSky's picture

I'm 10 -15% In...  The rest is on "the sidelines"

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:47 | 5957370 new game
new game's picture

o percent, after my last two strikes, china schells and small oilys, got whole (30K gain back).

it was wild days of 5k moves. closed all accounts and have no broker accounts. cold turkey, ha...

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 00:36 | 5958029 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Got out in 2010 when I racked up a 10K loss and my wife made me swear I wouldn't invest a nickle again without asking her first. That hurt.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 08:11 | 5958287 fattail
fattail's picture

Your mistake was telling your wife about your trading, can't get rich without taking some risk.  what hurt more, losing 10k or getting neutered?  Let me guess... your have a lot of new furniture since 2010?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:33 | 5957498 Blano
Blano's picture

I tried trading based on what I perceived to be reality, rather than with the Fed and the trend til 2013, and eventually gave up.  Losing money sucks.

If I do it again, I'll just play along with the crowd.

 

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 00:45 | 5958035 Pitiful
Pitiful's picture

I'm in about 40% 

I refuse to buy shares in any financial company, hedge funds, or any company that is using leverage as a means to prop up their share price. I strictly invest in companies that have a solid prospectus and balance sheet. No IRAs, no mutual funds. Customer service is where it's at. People need things like hotels, flights and food. 

It's been playing out pretty well actually. Up 10% since Feb 1st.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 03:35 | 5958149 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Proudly out of every market for roughly sixteen years. It has done me good!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:52 | 5956404 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
NY mayor, aiming to influence 2016 debate, gathers progressive leaders to discuss income gap

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/298533931.html

 

A gathering of all Vampires in one room...Hmm opportunity knocks.

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:57 | 5956427 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Problem: income inequality

Reaction: tax the rich

Solution: communism

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:32 | 5956930 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

 

Claim: increase taxes on the rich

Reality: increase taxes on the middle class

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:29 | 5957085 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Perhaps the plan is to, under the guise of tax the rich, put in place a fairly progressive tax schedule that really socks it to the higher earners. The "rich" get all sorts of loop holes, so they don't really have to pay it. Then the Fed debases the money to such a point that "we are all millionaires now".

Tada! Everyone is in a 40+ percent tax bracket. Bring on bigger government!

Regards,

Cooter

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 22:07 | 5957850 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

Does Claim = Clam?

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:35 | 5958395 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

All taxes come from the end consumer, no matter where along the chain they are placed.

They raise my tax, I raise your price.

It's as simple as that.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:53 | 5956405 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Indeed.  But maybe a little perspective is in order:

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=iq&product=oil&graph=produ...

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:53 | 5956409 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

hmmm, what are the chances a ton of capital will soon be spent on builder more super oil tankers and having them come to market just as the depression takes hold and demand of oil drops 10%.  sound familiar?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:25 | 5957070 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

None, zero, zip, Nada, zilch, the big goose egg, a no hitter, a perfect game, running the table, breaking the bank, taking down the casino, taking out Milwauikie

AND

BALLDERDASH!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:00 | 5957567 GotGalt
GotGalt's picture

Yep, that's why they call it a cyclical industry.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:56 | 5956425 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Long strippers/escorts willing to rappel from helicopters.  

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:16 | 5956504 JC_is_a_SpaceMonkey
JC_is_a_SpaceMonkey's picture

Is there a investment fund for that?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:39 | 5956597 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

There's an ETF* for that. With a Futures Market. ;-),

* Ejaculation-Traded Fun.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:59 | 5956426 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

First the Baltic Dry Index now this. Some Economic Recovery Huh? No one is buying anything.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:02 | 5956447 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

CarMax reported good numbers this week.

High end luxury cars moving earnings up.

This new economy excludes tens of millions.

A tale of two economies is emerging.

This should get interesting.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:19 | 5956521 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Allright - just to keep it interesting...read the linked article below and discuss peak oil production...please wait to junk away only after reading the article

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/04/why-would-corporations-nations-leave.html

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:58 | 5957214 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

It's not just economic. It is becoming two separate species. Walk around a Walmart for an hour and then walk around a Wegmans for an hour. The "people" at Walmart are large, round, walk with limps or use motorized carts to shop. The woman at Wegman's all wear yoga pants to highlight their perfectly tight little asses. Complete bifurcation of the human race happening in real time in good ol' America!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:46 | 5957529 Blano
Blano's picture

I was all set to use your info to go check out some hot babes, 'til I saw I'd have to go to NY/the Northeast.  No thanks.  I'll stay in Dallas.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:19 | 5958372 Refuse-Resist
Refuse-Resist's picture

Check out Target or Whole Foods.

 

Yoga pants and Milfs oh my!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:52 | 5957388 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Makes me think of Breaking Bad, and the lady driving a sporty Bentley who used to be partner and lover of Walter White.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:08 | 5957451 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

At first, I thought that said Carl Marx reported good numbers.  And I was like, well, DUH, the asswipe and his administration report jacked up number every time.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 13:58 | 5956432 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

OPEC, gotta love'em......

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:00 | 5956436 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

How does Iraq go from 3.7 million barrels per day to 4.7 million barrels per day in 2020, if oil is going to be priced at $20 and there is no capex?

Or can we assume that the US debt (at least $25 Trillion by 2020), won't be noticed, and the dollar will stay strong?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:17 | 5956711 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Lowest cost production on the planet (not counting "security"), thanks to geography, so I hear.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:58 | 5957557 thecrud
thecrud's picture

25 Trillion You have taken the red pill I see.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:01 | 5956440 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Good news!  The Iraqi "government" has "liberated" Tikrit.   Oh, but then this report:

Iraqi provincial council head says Shi'ite paramilitaries are looting in Tikrit, sees out of control situation - @Reuters

 

Now I thought only the ISIS Sunny islams were looting Iraqi treasures.  Looks like the Shits want in on the booty as well.

 

How FUBAR can a place get?  Oh, as a side note, what is actually left of "Tikrit"?  Probably about the same as Kobani.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:06 | 5956465 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

We need some of that action here.

Soon.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:14 | 5957037 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

Reuters? Seriously WTF.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 03:14 | 5958133 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

exactly, it always needs to be repeated: you can't trust everything from reuters.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:07 | 5956467 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I remember that 2003 Gulf War: Iraq was going to be producing 12M barrels per day by now.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:15 | 5956492 venturen
venturen's picture

it is a record? If Obama didn't screw up the winning of the war.....it would probably be even higher

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 21:32 | 5957801 pops
pops's picture

In and out, quick and dirty for about eighty five billion. 

Bullseye there, too.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:07 | 5956468 fremannx
fremannx's picture

The CEO of Maersk Line, the world’s largest shipping company, warned that global trade growth is slowing. Søren Skou told the Financial Times yesterday that the sluggish global economy is having a “huge impact for us as an industry.”

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/deflationary-forces-creating-global-s...

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:15 | 5957042 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

" We sluggished some folks. "

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:13 | 5956483 venturen
venturen's picture

Wait didn't the media/liberals make fun of Cheney and Bush about Iraq oil output?

 

Iraq’s oil output is rising faster than any other nation in OPEC

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:15 | 5956491 Hohum
Hohum's picture

That can happen when you start from a low base.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:15 | 5956496 venturen
venturen's picture

it is an ALL TIME RECORD!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:20 | 5956526 Hohum
Hohum's picture

And it will be keep rising for a long time.  But it's a record first reached 35 years ago.  Perspective.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:31 | 5956571 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Since Lehman...?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:31 | 5956568 JC_is_a_SpaceMonkey
JC_is_a_SpaceMonkey's picture

Cheney and Bush were accused of wanting Iraq's oil by some liberals.  Since all the public justification for the invasion were known to be wrong, lots of people were grasping to straws to find the 'real' reason.

It was liberals who were made fun of for claiming that the Iraq would become a mess and create a nation of terrorists.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:36 | 5956735 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

We should take their oil and give the proceeds to Veterans, then dump the rest on D.C..

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:09 | 5957454 rgraf
rgraf's picture

You mean neoliberals. And it was neocons who made it a mess. It's no longer a nation. It's a territory.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:15 | 5956487 blu
blu's picture

The line is miles long, but each tanker is nearly a quarter mile long in itself and there are only a dozen actual boats waiting.

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:19 | 5956520 JC_is_a_SpaceMonkey
JC_is_a_SpaceMonkey's picture

A dozon tankers is still a lot of storage floating idle in one place,

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:11 | 5956704 mt paul
mt paul's picture

target rich environment...

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:19 | 5956516 unplugged
unplugged's picture

might be more profitable to fill those tankers with water and send them to Califoreignia

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:20 | 5956718 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, except for the fact that Cali is bankrupt part.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:36 | 5956761 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

yes but fourteen generations from now there's some spare debt capacity, so they can pull it forward

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:28 | 5956559 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

ZH has lost its intellectual honesty on this issue.  I would have assumed the Austrians here would deal with real industry cost curves.  The price of oil is set at the margin.  The marginal substitution is very low cost traditional field output depletion against very expensive marginal shale/tight oil (whether domestic or international) over time.  There is ZERO question that the price of oil will increase materially relative to virtually all other goods and services absent a world changing energy innovation to displaced liquid fuel transportation (which we happen to be working on... Trying to do what we can to prevent a vicious spiral).

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:44 | 5956960 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Demand also sets marginal price. If shale oil costs $200 to produce today, would the price of oil be $200 or would demand collapse? If the people don't have money for $10/gal gas, then it's not going to happen. There would be a huge depression which could cause demand destruction. 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:01 | 5957572 thecrud
thecrud's picture

See what 4 dollar gas did.

 

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 06:08 | 5958217 CuttingEdge
CuttingEdge's picture

That was more to do with ObumfuckCare, methinks.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 01:30 | 5958065 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

Which part of relative to other goods and services wasn't clear?

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 10:21 | 5958485 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

Show me the collapsing demand.  Seriously.  Consumption has been rising domestically.  And exactly how did that demand change so sharply starting when we needed to put additional pressure on RussIA?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:31 | 5956567 Fiscal.Enema
Fiscal.Enema's picture

Live Ship Tracker shows a different story. Whats up ZH?  Checking sources as usual?

 

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/zoom:10/shipid:674100/mmsi:4415...

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:44 | 5956623 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

I went to the same site and found nothing.  Ghost ships, Shaggy!

A Google search indicates there is a backup due to a storm in the Persian Gulf.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-iraq-oil-backlog-idUSKBN0MS...

Tyler click bait bullshit.

Must generate clicks for more hookers and blow.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:00 | 5956672 Shed Boy
Shed Boy's picture

Yup...I'm calling BS on the 4 mile long line of ships too. www.marinetraffic.com showed nothing.

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:50 | 5956972 blu
blu's picture

Stealth tanker ships. With stealth technology. Being stealthy and all ninja-like.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 03:40 | 5958151 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Nah, it's just due to the glasses. The future so bright, we gotta wear these: http://www.mostly-harmless.de/joo.html
  Just put them down for a moment, and you can see them tankers ...  ;)

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:50 | 5957539 Blano
Blano's picture

Even if it IS 4 miles long, it's only 22 ships.  Not exactly much to get excited about.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:06 | 5957593 thecrud
thecrud's picture

Actually the problem when I checked was a lack of oil tankers.

That may be worse than a back up.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:45 | 5956963 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The article is from Bloomberg, so why are you calling bullshit on Tyler?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-02/iraq-s-four-mile-line-...

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:46 | 5957164 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Bloomberg the last word on truth...hahahaha

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:07 | 5957213 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

So where do you think ZH should get its news from? Hire their own reporters? They post news articles. You believe them or not. If you call bullshit, then it's Bloomberg's bullshit. Bloomberg reported on the plane crash in the Alps. Was that also bullshit?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:05 | 5957309 kill switch
kill switch's picture

If the information isn't sourced don't print it..I don't give a fuck where it comes from in the MSM..Do your own investigative activities. Bloomberg may have reported on a plane crash that still isn’t completely understood,,,,congrats...the jury is still out on the plane crash. This is what I believe from MSM a big fat fucking goose egg.. So why should ZH parrot this bs that was exposed by it's own reders in short order. I don't need MSM passed along by ZH I can get that from Huffington. For starters try this source...There are many others..

 

http://www.globalresearch.ca/

P.S.

Hire their own reporters?

 

Might be a good start..then they can take full responsibility.

 

 

ZH Has done some great work I just hope this is not a sign of slippage.

 

 

We are all living in the ultimate illusion..

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clnozSXyF4k

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:08 | 5957597 thecrud
thecrud's picture

ZH is mostly consierded the mother of all bull shit.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 21:24 | 5957781 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

You're considered the mother of all idiots

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 08:07 | 5958279 kill switch
kill switch's picture

You suffer from the acult syndrome,,,no critical thinking,, ZH is my god...Calling people idiots ,,,very deep..

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:47 | 5958410 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Acute Acult Syndrome.

I think they have workshops for that, run by fat lesbians.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 10:06 | 5958456 kill switch
kill switch's picture

I think they have workshops for that, run by fat lesbians.

 

 

This must be your concentration of expertise which I have no knowledge..

 

Cheers

 

The kill switch

I'm not sure Acute was formed for effect on my part but your need to use it is bolstering with no effect.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 21:22 | 5957775 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

It was sourced from Bloomberg. If you choose not to believe this Bloomberg article then that's your choice. The media is full of truths, half-truths, and outright lies. ZH is a blog, not a media company. If you want to be a reporter, then go do your own investigative reporting. Every article you've read on ZH was sourced to the MSM or some other website. Now your getting mad about it after all these years? If ZH had their own reporters what makes you think everything they report would be accurate?

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 08:08 | 5958283 kill switch
kill switch's picture

It was sourced from Bloomberg.

 

Please get real.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:45 | 5958407 kill switch
kill switch's picture

If ZH had their own reporters what makes you think everything they report would be accurate?

 

I rest my case.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:48 | 5958413 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Why should I believe you?

See how that works?

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 17:44 | 5958431 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Why should I believe you?

 Believe me?? Now your treading on dangerous ground. As long as I'm void of multiple sources and many footnotes you take your current events portfolio to a creeping death.

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:04 | 5957241 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

What's a sailor in a four mile long line of tankers to do in Basra? Go on a beer run.

http://gadling.com/2012/11/22/beer-run-in-basra/

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:22 | 5956725 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Thanks for the website.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 09:41 | 5958401 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

Good website, always  buy your beer from a Christian in the Middle East!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:56 | 5957401 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

That site: marinetraffic.com shows no backlog from shipping but 9 vessels VLCC,are due shortly, but various news sites show up to 30 vessels are waiting up to 21 days to load due to a big storm in the area.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:33 | 5956581 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

I don't know what the Zionist criminals of the west have specifically in mind, but Iran, and the rest is falling for it.

Oh where oh where will the next Dancing Mossads show be?

The banksters need to repay us.

 

"See that building behind me, it has fallen and I am going to talk about it until it really falls."

 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:54 | 5956661 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

LangleyInc, the executioners for MurderInc, are pissed at the House of Saud and now they are being sent to the slaughter via Yemen.  The Saudi Royal's are running on very short time.  Wait till that house falls; talk about Middle-East instability.  Long XOM?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:46 | 5956967 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

House of Saud are allies with Israel. Why would the US take them down? 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:36 | 5956763 DuneCreature
DuneCreature's picture

Holographic tankers maybe? …

IF the tankers are physically there and IF they really are full of crude and IF they are Silverman style insured they sure would be a juicy targets for some bomb laden, HBUAP controlled, Boeing 777 or AN-32 coming from the general direction of Iran to get the ball rolling on the McIsrael war pretext /nuke deal squishing wish list.

The possibilities are positively endless.

Don’t think someone isn’t running them all through some war gaming super computer scenario set right this second either.

Let’s see what cartoon shit they can come up with and who benefits.

~ DC

Oh, and P.S. – You are correct; The banksters need to repay us.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:33 | 5956582 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

And they said all those dead and permanently disabled Americans weren't worth it!

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:51 | 5956643 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Parents should be charged with negligence for not doing everything possible to prevent their children from entering into an urban "Po-Lice" farce or U.S. military.  There is no honor in MurderInc.  However, the more that do, the less likely children will be forced to via "forced admission".

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:44 | 5956622 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's YachtFest in the gulf... Long Belgian caterers.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 03:29 | 5958143 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

You should hedge that trade by going short chinese caterers ... FTMFW!  ;)

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 14:47 | 5956631 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Supply will be disrupted by June 1st by all means possible; otherwise the derivative implosion in the oil patch will cause a domino affect.  War will be the supply disruptor of choice...the new terror group "OilOil" will arrive as a breakout group to radical for ISIS.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:11 | 5956702 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Who needs oil when there is no job to drive to?

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:09 | 5957020 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

All electric here and don't pay a dime because whole home is solar and charge my electric car and scooters from home.  FREE.  Long live Sun power

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:40 | 5957132 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

You must work in the retail market. Pouring a Starbucks cup of coffee. Ganger, you don't have a passport and don't leave your scooter in long term airport parking. Wearing a suit and tie is not required. Bathrobe or pajama pants to land your next VC investment at 45% ownership. You can continue to get tattoos, wear thrift clothes and run your business on short term gains until the money runs out. Then, VC owns all assets. We love the liberals selling rainbow pizzas. They're a broke baked business model. 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 20:13 | 5957616 thecrud
thecrud's picture

Funny it was 8 years of bush republicanism that ended with Banks collapsed, Housing Collapsed, DOW 7600, and jobs lost at 800,000 a month. Just how exactly is that better.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:19 | 5957054 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The drive to out pace peak oil misnomer and crying for the lack of coal car infrastructure to rebuild a dead market demand. The administration thinks Americans will fund development costs to adhere to his Executive Order by our porch monkey President. 

Not going to happen. Paris has clown cars, they just provided that they intend to sell you a golf cart. Again; recreating a smog crisis to force people to buy a new car. The old car no longer meets emissions requirements. The cycle of a debt slave. Keep buying so our GDP looks good. 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 15:36 | 5956764 The Shape
The Shape's picture

Is this like the "rig counts don't matter" lie?

Anyone swallowing this one should ask themselves why Tyler still hasn't reported on the actual US January production numbers that fell by over 100k bpd.

There's an agenda here.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:09 | 5957263 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

Of course there is an agenda...there is ALWAYS an agenda, one way or the other. The good fun is trying to piece it all together and figure it all out.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 19:58 | 5957559 Blano
Blano's picture

"Everybody talks their book."

Never forget that.

Disclaimer: I love ZH, clickbait and all.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 16:19 | 5956885 mt paul
mt paul's picture

wonder how many

zero hedge yacht club tee shirts

 those tanker crews would buy....

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:04 | 5957011 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

How many freight companies are expecting to get paid with petrodollar's under a letter of credit banking agreement? Bet they wished Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs). They could dump shipments under a swap agreement. Fuck this banking bullshit. Free along side is another approach. 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:10 | 5957024 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Oh yeah Iran's oil has been offline for years.  How bout that oil price now?

THIS IS YOUR RECOVERY

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:01 | 5957222 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

This is a natural gas and oil pipeline dispute. Ask yourself about the surplus of NATGAS contracts.

Then ask yourself about the international fight on were the oil pipline is going to be placed. If still confused, what happened during the Keystone pipeline agreement between United States of America and Canada. Ask the nigger in the White House. 

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:19 | 5957053 thecrud
thecrud's picture

The only tax being asked for is fair taxation when a billionaire pays less than his secretary something has gone far wrong and is the cause of not being able to pay for society's necessity's.

 

That is bull shit.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:27 | 5957075 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

Just flood the market as fast as possible so the shales will bankrupt and I can cash in my puts on them. Is that so much to mother fucking ask?

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 01:13 | 5958051 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

It just seems too easy. "OMG shale is gonna crash! We're boke! Liquidate!"

Next:

 

Continuing unrest in the ME today pushed oild back to 100USD/bbl.

Sat, 04/04/2015 - 04:19 | 5958171 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

If you're the one who downvoted me mother fucker, meet me in the parking lot after school and lets get this shit on bitch. You wanna fuck with me mother fucker????????

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 17:46 | 5957161 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

Bakken ND report.   Huge slow down- hours being reduced and job losses, TONS of Heavy equipment going idle- sitting in lots... This is first hand info.   I suspect that the shit is really going to hit the fan here in may, june and july.

Fri, 04/03/2015 - 18:06 | 5957247 jomama
jomama's picture

Hit the fan in what way?

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