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Here We Go: Goldman Declares That "The Right Policy Would Be To Put Hikes On Hold For Now"
It was just two days ago when we observed that during the latest Fed matinee, none other than Goldman's Jan Hatzius presented a slide deck suggestively titled "Hiking Rates in the Name of Financial Stability."
Said slide deck, in addition to hinting that the macroeconomy (not Goldman's bonus pool mind you) may not be able to withstand the shock and horror of a 0.25% rate hike, also contained the following binomial decision tree (in which Goldman, with a straight face said that it was unclear if rate hikes "reduce bust risk") designed to strongly "clue" the academic central planners in the Marriner Eccles building just how and when to act.
It was here that Goldman clearly stated two days ahead of today's non-farm payroll number, that the US economy "may not be ready yet", after nearly a decade of zero interest rates, for a rate hike.
We will ignore the irony that the economic weakness is taking place over a year after the same Jan Hatzius predicted that the US would grow at an "above consensus" rate in 2014 (forecasting 2.9%, the final outcome 2.4%) and further. It took place precisely three months after Goldman predicted a 3.0% GDP growth rate in Q1 2015, a forecast which Goldman since cut to 1.1% (it was under 1% until the February import crash provided a bean-counting gift to the GDP trackers). We will certainly ignore Goldman's forecast of a 2.6% 10Y yield on March 31 just three months prior.
What we won't, however, ignore is a note released several hours after today's disastrous jobs print by the Goldman economic team, titled "It Is Hard to Be Reasonably Confident", in which Goldman takes a machete, for the second time in 4 years, to its "above consensus" forecast.
Here is what Goldman had to say:
Today’s employment report was a disappointment, as payrolls posted a weaker-than-expected gain in March and employment gains were revised down in prior months. The FOMC’s labor market condition of “further improvement” nonetheless strikes us as a manageable hurdle. Bad weather likely weighed on the latest employment report, slack measures continued to narrow in March and the unemployment projections in the SEP suggest that the FOMC was already expecting a slowdown in the pace of employment gains in coming months.
The inflation condition is a much higher hurdle. Given recent inflation news—including the deceleration in year-over-year core PCE inflation to 1.4%, nominal wage growth of 2% and declines in some indicators of long-term inflation expectations—being “reasonably confident” in inflation returning to the 2% target is a tall order.
Ok, so the end of the waiter and bartender renaissance is a hurdle, but not nearly as bad as the realization that now the US will have to import deflation not only from Japan but also from the Eurozone and deal with an oil slump that contrary to Goldman's predictions isn't going to dead cat bounce any time soon, and if anything will only get worse.
Then what?
We use the Fed staff’s FRB/US model to gauge the uncertainty around the inflation outlook. Specifically, we draw “shocks” from the historical behavior of the economy since 1997 and trace out the implications for the evolution of inflation in the model.
Oh, so Goldman will use a license of the model that the Fed itself uses to forecast the future. Surely we can expect projection certainty within 0.1%.
Of course, Goldman knows this is ridiculous, so it gently unveils the first snowman: telling Yellen how Goldman would think... if it were Yellen (not because the old academic is utterly clueless what to do at this point, mind you - just our of courtesy).
Chair Yellen recently discussed a number of factors that would affect her confidence in the inflation outlook. These include changes in: (1) the pace of labor market improvement, (2) core inflation itself, (3) wage inflation, and (4) longer-term inflation expectations.
We next explore the effect of changes in these economic conditions on our confidence metric in FRB/US. We start with an example of how shifts in long-term inflation expectations might affect the uncertainty around the inflation outlook. Specifically, we trace out the distribution of inflation in 2017Q4 in response to a ¼pp increase and decrease in long-term professional forecaster inflation expectations in 2015Q2. Exhibit 3 shows our results. We find that the confidence score drops to 51% when inflation expectations tick down and rises to 68% when inflation expectations move up.
So kind of Goldman, to do all in its power to try to boost the Chairmanwoman's confidence.
Actually, we misspoke, because next up Goldman finds that contrary to its perpetual bullishness of the past 5 years, "the bottom line from these scenarios is that plausible improvements in any single indicator are unlikely to deliver reasonable confidence on their own."
Exhibit 4 summarizes our results for a range of indicators cited by Chair Yellen. In addition to the inflation expectations experiment above, we also consider shifts in wage inflation, changes to the growth outlook over the next four quarters and news on the trend in payroll gains (that again last for four quarters). We only consider one shock at a time and trace out the resulting confidence score for a range of values. We report the confidence score for both the end of 2017 (black line) and for the end of 2016 (gray line). The key take-aways are as follows.
First, the simulations confirm that shifts in long-term inflation expectations have a large effect on the distribution of inflation outcomes at either horizon. Second, changes in the pace of wage inflation have a meaningful effect too. For example, a 0.5pp pickup in the pace of wage inflation raises the likelihood that inflation will exceed 1.75% at the end of 2017 from 60% to 64%. Third, shifts in the growth outlook over the next year—which affect not only real GDP growth but also payroll growth—have significant effects on the inflation outlook. For example, we find that a ½pp reduction in the expected growth pace over the next four quarters lowers the confidence that inflation will exceed 1.75% at the end of 2017 from 60% to 51%. Fourth, our simulations suggest that shifts in the pace of payroll growth alone—i.e. productivity shocks—have small effects on the inflation outlook. Payroll disappointments, in other words, are probably not particularly informative about the inflation outlook unless they reflect a broader growth slowdown. The bottom line from these scenarios is that plausible improvements in any single indicator are unlikely to deliver reasonable confidence on their own.
Goldman leans in some more just before unleashing the roofie bomb, because having run out of credibility, the vampire squid now does a "how to become more confident" bridge chart: one assumes they tasked the recent Harvard grad with this one. Remember: when the economy is growing at 0.1%, one's best bet is to just chart how one gets from "unconfident" to "confident."
Simultaneous shocks are more likely to do the trick. Exhibit 5 provides an example of what could raise the confidence score above 75%, a likelihood one might consider to qualify as “reasonable confidence.” The chart shows the marginal impact on the confidence score of a combination of shocks. A ½pp improvement in the growth outlook would raise the confidence score by 8bp, a ½pp pick-up in wage growth on top of that would raise the confidence score by another 4pp and an additional ¼pp shock to inflation expectations would be enough to boost the confidence score for the combined scenario to over 75%.
It Is Hard to Be Confident
The FRB/US model is a helpful tool for analyzing the uncertainty around the inflation outlook, but it comes with a number of caveats. Inflation expectations, for example, play a very important role in determining inflation 2-3 years ahead, resulting in relatively minor roles for recent news on payrolls or actual inflation. Our analysis is therefore best seen as an illustration of the issues involved.
Good, because if your previous "analysis" is any indication of how accurate the current one will be, it's best to just ignore any "projections" and certainly those 2-3 years ahead.
In fact, it is best to just ignore pretty much everything said to this point which is nothing but econobabble gibberish. Because here, at the very end of the note, is where Goldman finally says what it meant to say all along.
The analysis suggests that it is hard to be “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook given current economic conditions, unless several inflation drivers rise at the same time. We therefore do not have much confidence in the inflation outlook and believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now.
And there you have it - from a Q1 GDP forecast of 3% and a June rate hike, then to a September, then to a December, then after shocking "snow in the winter" finally caught up the the BLS' seasonal adjustments Goldman has finally come out of the closet and dropped the first (of many) trial balloon.
Only this is not the trial balloon for the indefinite postponement of rate hikes, those were never going to happen in the first place, but a trial balloon for what the real endgame is here: QE4... just as we most recently predicted would happen 2 weeks ago (and as distantly as mid-2013). Because in a world in which global central banks are already monetizing 100% of global net issuance, there is no longer any need for subtlety: either we desperately try get inflation through unlimited printing of money, the more sharp and acute the inflation spike the better, or the entire fiat system implodes. And as long as central banks have something to say about it (and courtesy of Bernanke's helicopter speech we know precisely what their last action will be), it will be the former.
Finally, what goes without saying, is that in a world in which the Federal Reserve is a branch of Goldman Sachs, what Goldman Sachs trial baloons, Goldman gets.
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If it pleases Your Highness...
Gee, who'd a thunk it?
Hah ahha ha ha ha ha ha ah No Shit Sherlock
This raising rates shit is what happens when people start believing thier own propaganda
But we're in a RECOVERYYYYYYYYY!
The puppet master has spoken and the FED will obey - along with CNBC and all the other financial shills. Long live "Goddam Squid".
Yeah, Oz, the great and powerful came to mind.
Hey Knuckles someone should market a Goldman Squid Masturbator and maybe mini ones for nip stimming.
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- Adult Toy Meme for Goldman Sach's Sex -
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The Meme Might Catch on and people would get the message.
Perhaps a Blue one that penetrates and a pink one that men use??
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- Adult Toy Meme for Goldman Sach's Sex -
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LOL
They'd probably own the company behind the scenes so as to hedge their own bad PR.
Hello Kitty vibrators already exist, BTW, so your thought ain't too far from the bright side of reality
http://www.bedroomjoys.com/product/hello-kitty-vibrator/
They are trapped. Print away!!!
Buy Physical things that create or retain value!
RIPS
The BLS has changed the way inflation is calculated to increase the possible outcomes, thus allowing them to essentially tell us that inflation is whatever they wish it was.
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpinewest.htm
New CPI Estimation System To Be Introduced
Effective with the release of the January 2015 CPI on February 26, 2015, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will utilize a new estimation system for the Consumer Price Index. The new estimation system, the first major improvement to the existing system in over 25 years, is a redesigned, state-of-the-art system with improved flexibility and review capabilities. In addition, this change eliminates paper in all steps of producing the CPI. The use of the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) formula for initial and interim estimates of the C-CPI-U, and the new quarterly revision schedule for C-CPI-U indexes, are possible because of this new system. Also, as part of the redesign process, a small number of minor methodology changes, primarily affecting the imputation of price changes, were introduced.
In short, price changes in the new estimation system will be imputed by a narrower set of item and geographic source data.
The right policy would be to arrest, convict, and have the ZWO bankster cabal all standing in front of a firing squad for treason, crimes against humanity, subversion, racketeering, and theft from the people.
THAT was a quick reference. Had that one bookmarked did you?
No, but thinking about Goldman and Hello Kitty Vibrators, it reminded me of this old joke:
A kid goes up to his dad and says, "What does a vagina look like?"
His father says, "Son, before sex a vagina looks like a rose, with pink velvety petals, and the aroma of perfume."
The kid says, "Wat about after sex?"
His father says, "Have you ever seen a bulldog eating mayonnaise?"
Janet, tell Goldman to fuck-off and that you are in charge. Tell them that your models say the economy is strong and that we need to hike rates. Come on you and your fellow intellectual Giants on the board have got it right. Go with your gut, show them your balls are bigger than the Goldman boys.
Least you got to hand it to Janet; it takes balls to be a transvestite.
"Hikes on Hold" or "Heads on Pikes"???
Junk away but they will never raise rates, at least not more than for mere window dressing.
Why, because the banks think they have the power, and most of us think they have the power, but in the end, nationalization is just a pen stroke away! And the US Gov can't ever, ever, ever have the rates go up. Ever!
And don't think this president wouldn't do it. Who would stop him?
QE4EVA
QEINFINITY
why on earth would janet even consider defying goldman when the squid is one of the major shareholders in the Fed?
Yes she is Manipulating to keep eating shit from people that deceive her, deceive the US Population, and force her to Lie, brown nose, make false statements to Congress....
She needs to get the Monkey off her back. Only one way. And no one will blame her really since the ones that go bankrupt or have to sell assets will be like a joke to the Strong ones.
Of course we don't want stronger TBTF and Bigger TBTJ.
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- US JOKE-A-Rama -
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A-A-Ah, Congress doesn't have her back. I guess that is the problem. Congress won't try to fix anything at all.
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- US JOKE-A-Rama -
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Awesome!
Jeezus I thought it looked Like Lloyd Blankfein!
Knucks,
I might just strap one of those little things to my forehead when I go to renew my "verified" DL Tuesday at DMV.
I'll do nearly anything for a laugh....
Knuckles; There is money in Liberalism and in Conservatism... well as well as Fear Mongering, False Flags, Saber Rattling, and Starting Wars.
Berlin was certainly a hot bet of liberalism prior to the Nazi Movement(ascension).
Why would Bankers miss Out on:
- Red Light Districts
- Sex Shops
- Porn
- Internet Porn
- Sex Dollars
- Virtual Sex
- Human Trafficking
- Pedophile Priests
I'd like to have the Vampire Squid climb right up BlankFuck's ass and nest there.
Damn, this ruins Steve Liesmans weekend as now he has to memorize the document from Goldman for Mondays broadcast, and on passover.
And they're raising the minimum wage!
Now at least I can have some dignity
Baby, "the right policy would be to leave those heaving bosoms out of that bra mommy. I'd like to take a drink whenever the mood strikes. Don't you dare limit my titty access mommy!"
If only Tyler had applied a similar blowtorch to Goldman's magnificent "rig counts don't matter" lie. How many tankers did they get to fill up sub 45 WTI on that one?
February and March should be real knee slappers when the states report and the EIA revises after production fell in January.
Not that Goldman would ever do anything that could possibly be only for its own benefit, and nobody elses. They are such good caretakers of other people's money. After all, they're doing God's work.
/sarc off
Go fuck yourself with a broken wine bottle, Lloyd.
Le capitalisme est vraissemblablement en train de mourir. Peut etre pas tout de suite tout de suite. Mais il se meurt. Il n'existe qu'une seule porte de sortie, et nous la prendront contraint et forcé. Dans ce monde l'argent sera dans la main des pauvres quand les riches posséderont les choses necessaires à la vie. L'energie, la matière première, et les machines. Qu'est ce que le capitalisme peut apporter de plus que ces choses à un homme qui possède l'energie,les matières premières, l'imprimante 3d universelle et des robots pour satisfaire sa logitique ? a quoi pourrait donc bien servir de cummuler de l'argent dans ce monde ???
Ceux qui ne posséderont rien auront de l'argent pour acheter les choses qui leur seront necessaires. L'humanité sera dispensé d'elle meme, non necessaire au bien etre des quelques humains qui domineront encore quelques temps leurs machines toujours plus puissantes. Jusqu'au jour où, la machine se dispensera de l'humanité à laquête de son propre bonheur.
Nul ne sait quand ca va arriver, mais ca arrivera. Probablement de notre vivant.
Fuck yeah. I'm glad that someone else realizes all Charles Manson wanted was a Sharon Tate cooch hat.
Manson makes more and more sense. Product of the system indeed.
-He kinda looks like Corzine from the right angle, too..
What do you mean the squid is really an alien from Sirius?
de l'humanité à laquête de son propre bonheur
An illuminate man licked his son's boner something proper?
Dude, that's just sick. Accurate, but sick.
Does your dog bite?
Baxter, you know I don't speak spanish - -
~ Anchorman
Higher rates coming soon then?
AKA Throwing more Seniors under the Bus to save Bankers and lousy specualtors and theives.
Right Policy might win a Nobel Peace Prize for someone.
-
Yes winners in each Economy want to stay on Top and won't help even in a Great Depression. Plus they play off of each other and ride on each others stupid ideas.
I image there are plenty of examples in World Economics, Historical Economics ala from German Economics Movement to prove that the policy was always a failure.
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- Wiemar America -
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- Watched Paul Craig Roberts on USAWatchdog.com
- US Debt can never really be fixed
- US GDP is really Negative since like 2008
- US Production Industry & Outsourced service Jobs will NEVER Come Back
- US Free Trade Policy is a Slave Trade Policy for the Cheapest Labor
- 150 Million in US on Welfare of some kind
- 100 Million over 16 years of Age not Working
- Solution must come from US Congress not Blamed on the FED so much as they have no Legislative Tool
- USA Needs some kind of Huge Investment (On Shore only) or perhaps a War just to Stabilize, plus new Economic Policies, New Banking Policies, New Banking Paradigm
- Since Debt will Break Up the USA, We need to Write off Debt probably in multiple Sectors, While Breaking Up TBTF and Other Monopolistic Giant Corporations & MSM
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- Wiemar America -
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Bankruptcy of U.S in 1933 & State of Emergency, War Powers & Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917
The United States went "bankrupt" in 1933. [President Roosevelt Executive Order 6073, 6102,6111, 6260; Senate Report 93-549, pgs. 187 & 594, 1973]. In 1950, declared "bankruptcy and reorganization." Secretary of Treasury appointer receiver in the bankruptcy [Reorganization Plan, No. 26, 5 U.S.C.A. 903; Public Law 94-564; Legislative History, Pg. 5967
To reinerate.
The Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. Is Bankrupted. The Emergency Banking Emergency Act of 1933 put the Bankrupted US into receicership to the IMF, World Bank & BIS.
Criminal. 14th Amendment made "Citizen" Slaves out of every single man, woman, child & future childdren. All assets, land (making Americans Tenants on our own soil) labor, future labor & American Souls Aka birth certificates were securized & put up as collateral to pay back a Criminal Loan the BANKSTERS know can never, ever be paid back.
In addition, the Act made de facto all "Citizen" Slaves Enemies of the newly formed Criminal UNITED STATES, CORP. INC.
If US can go Bankrupt, then Why NOT the PIIGS, Greece, or Cyprus??
It is a Fixed Game. Fixed by The Big European Banking Cartel.
They'll turn on US Government within 5 - 10 years and go with China. China is the Future and has all the Capital Investment and Low Wage Labor Force.
- Good Info
- I'll have to take some time to look into these Bankruptcies
- I need to broaden my Economic Knowledge
- There is some Videos about Territories, Jurisdiction, Municipal Incorporations, and US States Declaring Sovereignty in the Hague... not sure it is 100% correct, the guy said the Pentagon has been working for 40 years on secret plans ans was on board with Sovereignty for States taking us back to US Constitution (Before it is news)
Sounds like they are getting scared
A rate hike probably triggers a Greek default (which might happen anyways without it). Goldman has bets on Greece.
This won't end well.
A rate hike has nothing to do with what greece does or doesn't do
You mean they havn't taken their profits and off loaded all the debt to the constituents of the Euro area Idiocracy. Goldman must need a little more time to divest 100% of their junk. Kick the can a little further.
"Sounds like they are getting scared
A rate hike probably triggers "
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2010/05/federal-reserve-has-been-abusing.html
The DERIVATIVES COMPLEX.
"Hundreds and hundreds of trillions served."
The Greeks can always privatize everything, have an auction open only to the bidder rep from the IMF, and sell off the goodies to repay with hard assets the fiat borrowings. Everybody is happy with the looting, the grunts were receiving nothing from the loot, anyway, and it buys time until total collapse.
This is nothing new to the IMF. Any tinhorn politician accepting anything from them is equivalent to a future addict getting his first heroin injection on his way to homeless oblivion.
The banksters love it when a magic show comes together.
There goes Yellen, crapping in her hat and pulling it over her ears again. Just like my Dad used to say.
Sort of like the hocus without the pocus. Bitch up and flat out lied to us. We'll never get anything more than ChairSatanism from the FED.
Arrest them before they end the world.
Remember the good ol' days when you could count on the opposite of what GS says.
The truthiness in this one makes me uncomfortable.
Prepping the FedRes as the deserved fall guy in the Zionist banksters' take down and changeover of the dollar for SDRs.
The banksters need to repay us.
Yummy, I love the taste of Muppet ass. I think Blythe Masters is next to that piece of Monsanto corn.
And since the Jews at Golden Sacks are the Fed, HURRAY for me because stocks go up forever!!!
after nearly a decade of zero interest rates 'extend and pretend' is like cocaine and free $$$ for the 1% so why change ;-)
I sorta remember the sixties, seventy's and eighties.....................................
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJyQpAiMXkg
Nice reference, Blood.
Keep Ben's choppa's flying. How about reducing margin requirements back down to pre-Swissnado?
so basically what they're saying is that if you raise rates some printed money will have to go to someone else in order to cover the devastation the economy will suffer. Leav it at zero and just let us handle that printed money bonds stock market thingy for you.
Another " Captain Obvious" piece. I'm so fucking tired of looking at charts.
Here's the "real" deal. The USDX keeps pinging the 50day moving average. Once that's broken , all hell cuts loose.
The little baby bird pecks at the shell. Peck, peck, peck.....the Phoenix.
I think you're a wonderful poster, JIM. I've had many a laugh at your brilliant expense.
I'm flattered that you've taken the time to respond to me. Happy Easter my friend.
I read ZH 100X more than I post. I read almost everything.
You have your eye on very important cookie jars. Please keep your signal in the air good Sir.
Happy Easter to you as well. May some kind of peace and grace be sent to us all, everywhere.
Here is our new financial policy:
Don't stop shooting up until you're SURE, 100% FUCKING SURE, that you won't shake at all when you stop.
Policy, it's what's for breakfast. If you're a vampire squid and have had your fill of innocent babies and dreams of productive capital formation, that is....
At a nominal Federal debt of $18 trillion and counting, it's never going to be the time to raise rates.
Many don't know that the SS labor camps were a for-profit operation run by the private military SS for the benefit of the SS and the Nazi Party.
All government actions are driven by the quest for money, power, and division--ALWAYS
At the outbreak of WWII Nazi Germany was just about broke.
So the DC US' version of the Nazis, the neo-cons, will be back in visible power at a time that Zion is again moving them to war, and they are broke.
The banksters need to repay us.
The future may look rosy in these glasses, but it still smells like shit.
We will only be paid back by the banksters when we stand up and take back what they've stolen.
Goldman slacks code word, pull up up your shorts. We don't need to see Quantitative Easing hanging below the bullock crack line.
keep churnin' that landfill boys; it'll never fill up.
..... Whatever, nobody really believes there will be anything but a "token" rate cut at best anyway. Extend the Pretend as long as possible is the only game in town.
"Had to stop in my tracks for fear of walking on the mines I'd laid...1
The banksters need to repay us.
I'm throwing rock at them as they do.
1. Fortress Around Your Heart by Sting
great drums too.
my ride cymbal hates me for playing to it..
The EARLIEST that the FED could/would/might raise the FED funds rate is in Jan 2025.
Why ?
Because raising the FED funds rate will cause the HUGE USD carry trade and financial asset leverage to unwind, and raise the USD, which will seriously reverse financial markets and the fragile credit-addicted US consumer economy.
You think the obomination wants that during his reign ?
You think the clinton witch wants that during her reign ?
(The republicans, ie christian taleban, have already lost the 2016 presidential election with their "religious freedom laws", so hillary just needs to be crowned, and she will be unscrupulous, corrupt and ruthless enough to get elected again in 2020 for the 2021-2024 term.)
Therefore, unless the classic hyper-socialist academics Bernanke and Yellen are really closet republicans, the EARLIEST that the FED could/would/might raise the FED funds rate is in Jan 2025 - depending upon what the presidential election contest is in Nov 2024.
You don't get it. When the market tanks the Fed can sell bonds at a negative rate, so to make a greaterr margin, rates will go up.
The FED does not sell bonds.
Do you actually know anything about the monetary, financial, and economic system ?
Do you actually trade in the financial markets daily ?
Or are you just another one of these ignorant anti-everything ideologists spouting your irrational proletariat ideology ?
What you have now is probably all you will ever have.......
Wrong. I wake up with a raging{circumcised}} boner, every morning!
Woodpeckers, envy my manhood...
Don't sleep with the windows open or you might wake up with more than one bird in your bed...
Those, Blood Sucking mosquitoes, are really making me want to turn my Mattress. ;-D
Men?
CONfidence Men?
Captain Kirk: Harry lied to you, Norman. Everything Harry says is a lie. Remember that, Norman. *Everything* he says is a lie.
Harcourt Fenton Mudd: Now I want you to listen to me very carefully, Norman. I'm... lying.
Norman: You say you are lying, but if everything you say is a lie, then you are telling the truth, but you cannot tell the truth because you always lie... illogical! Illogical! Please explain! You are human; only humans can explain! Illogical!
Happy Easter Buzz.
We've delved so deep into Z/H sarchasms, that I don't who's joking anyMOAR?
I'm gonna ride you like a Harley on a bad piece a road. [/hooker, the wrong guys, aka, gollum sacks]
(1:12) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wkRL5k6610
I'll never quit you Buzz.
Brokeback Mountain > Circa 2005
don't make me break out the Da Nang Hooker quote. lulz
I can't stop laughing! You know me too well BUZZ.
We're definitely the wrong guys.
Where's my Peacemaker Bitchez?
How many of these arseholes would be out of a job if we had a system of honest and voluntary exchange?
La-dee-fuck-ing-da.
"We use the Fed staff’s FRB/US model"
So is it a reasonable assumption that all Fed models are available to GS?
As a quasi-public institution, why can't the public see said models?
I'm sure the US finest 535 will be all over it. /s
If Goldman says rates are going to remain static. It's usually good to do the opposite of these criminals
instant Zero Hedge thread response consolidation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSpBwt4hFN8
10 year under 1% is a given.
Wrong. In order for rates on the short end of the curve to go negative, the belly{3-7's} have to be 35-80 basis points higher than the long end of the curve, or it's redundent for the yield gain.
Don't ask me how I factored the Time decay over the "hypothetical" value of a generic contract, with floating valuations, and inflation calculated.
I'm a fucking Mental Midget
Bond yields at the long end are going to trade sideways, until the Moneymarkets explode! Short term debt /lack of liquidity/ will be the cascade event.
Wish I understood that (and how yield curves work in General).
"I'm a fucking Mental Midget"
I beg to differ.
Nice call on the sell USD pre- Non Farm Yen....BTW
The movie the .gov doesn't want you to see.
Money Masters: How International Bankers Gained Control of America:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDtBSiI13fE
The real question is, does the dog wage the tail? Jack the prime, make Goldman shut up!
"We're cashed out and into Russian equities, Janet. Pull the trigger whenever you're ready."
The Right Policy Would Be To Put Hikes On Hold For Now
lmao
Funny but raising rates is what is required to start the recovery
I still believe the Fed will increase QE spending AND increase the rate to .50%
They are the Fed!
They can do anything they want.
It will look desperate, but they have no choice.
If they truly want to save Mr. Bill.
Sluggo runs the Fed?
Seems like the Vampire Squid is getting a little nervous these days. Of course the Fed is going to raise rates anyway because they have their own agenda to defend. Will that cause a perturbation of the markets? You bet it will! The stock market will collapse like the house of cards it is.
It only takes two to Tango...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/it-only-takes-two-to-tango-everyone-e...
Sounds like Goldman wants needs some more time to sell some of the EM risk assets that will just simply collapse once rate lift off begins.
Derivative bomb. Don't even know what that means but it doesn't sound good for banks. Then let's do it!
Doom to banksters and their scumbag, crybaby solicitors. Hope they are all drowning in crushing student debt. I know they dress like they are single. Ha-ha.
Insiders are still selling at Nationstar Mortgage, LLC. They KNOW the SEC is after them...along with the DOJ.
Here's the decision tree:
Get rid of Wall Street--if no--then say byebye USA
Get rid of Wall Street--if yes--then maybe there's some hope.