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The Waiter And Bartender Recovery Is Over: Fewest Food Workers Added Since June 2012
Yesterday we warned that "the whisper expectation is for a NFP print that will be well below consensus, somewhere in the mid-100,000s if not worse now that the bartender hiring spree is over." As already noted, we were spot on with the abysmal jobs print, the worst since 2013. We were also correct about the end of the "bartender hiring spree" because as the following chart shows, the number of "Food Services and Drinking Places" workers, aka waiters and bartenders just saw its worst monthly increase since June of 2012.
So much for the "waiter and bartender" recovery so heavily praised by the WSJ a month ago.
That said, we also predicted something else earlier today just ahead of the payroll number:
Three things are certain: death, taxes, and this chart hitting new record highs https://t.co/30lg98WVR9
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 3, 2015
This, too, was correct, because despite the dramatic slowdown in bartender hiring, the total series just hit a new all time high of 11.017 million waiters and bartenders employed in the US.
So aside from food workers, what other job categories saw job gains (of Americas 55 and over) in March?
Well, it will hardly come as a surprise, that four of the five most active job categories hiring in March were also the lowest paid:
- Education and Health saw the addition of 38K workers
- Retail Trade added 26K
- Leisure and Hospitality added another 13K
- Temp workers increased by 11K.
We point this out just in case anyone is still worried about "wage growth."
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Someone will still be available to pour our drinks this weekend right?
Same as it ever was...
I'll worry when it's the fewest since Lehman...
I noticed a lot moar empty seats at my favorite watering hole this past week.
But the good news is the owner just replaced most of the staff with hot hot hot babes!
No worries, I heard that the $100 million dollar grill cheese company plans on buying a 5th truck.
That is easily like another 3-4 people right there.
pods
Obamanomics at its finest, utopia should be here any second now.....
This has nothing to do with the minimum wage increase,
nothing at all.
must be a gay bar
re I noticed a lot moar empty seats at my favorite watering hole this past week.
That's usually the case at 3:30 in the morning... ;)
I've got the weekend off!
Do illegal alien waiters/bartenders, illegally working those jobs, count in the data?
Dammit Zerohedge! Get it right - you're upsetting this White House! They're not 'bartenders'! They're DISTILLERY ENGINEERS!
This country needs more flair.
I just saw him this past weekend at Wrestlemania...
WOOOOOOOOOOOO!
This is what todays educational system primes young people for. Learning skill sets that could offer a lifetime career is so.......1970.
Too true, I was better educated when I graduated high school. The worst thing about it is curiosity is being actively suppressed since you are only allowed government approved knowledge.....
"Food Services and Drinking Places" will do just fine right up and until the credit cards have been maxed out.
"It's a flesh wound..."
More like a flechette...
Paid $10 plus tip per Moscow Mule last weekend because of a cool copper cup, nice decor and fancy wine tasting machines. Last night made em for about $1.25.
Moral of the story: take the girl initially out for drinks and from then on she can just come over.
Just like a pusher..., first you get them hooked. I suppose next you'll show her your pasta making machine. ;-)
I know I am in the minority, but I much prefer eating/drinking at home. Dislike crowds, lines & overpriced mediocre food.
Not truly knowing where the food is coming from and if is really food as buinesses try to stay competitive and compromise the quality of food. I know exactly where my food comes from that I process.
Yup. Same here.
Don't say it's the worst until it's revised ;)
Now that all the waiters and bartenders have been hired, the economy is going to add all the high paying yobs. Once the high paying yobs have all been added, then we will return to waiters and bartenders. Everything is cyclical. Econ 0.101.
This means, come Monday, the stock market will soar moar..er. BTFD or be left out forevah.
Bullish for schools that teach people how to grow and prepare food.
It really is frightening to realize how few people have either skills. If hardship does come upon us, there will be millions of starving zombies in the streets.
maybe schools for weapon use and maintenance too.
Maybe a whole new take on the "Prep School"??
I raise chickens and sometimes sell eggs at the bar. I delivered a dozen big, beautiful, brown eggs to a guy one night whilst his brother-in-law looked at them, aghast. He then asked me, "Uh, so does that brown wash off then?"
School for proper preparation of zombies.
$5 a pint in NY
F that
I go to my beer depot and can get a 6 pack of Craft beer with 8% ABV for $11.99
Really into Ballist Point of late! Good stuff.
We unemployed some people ...........
While I haven't laid anyone off, I have not replaced the positions where people resigned, nor do I forsee adding additional employees as we go into our summer busy season. I'll just give more OT to the workers I have.
well, the W & B group has over the past 2 years been trimmed from near 40 hours to nothing over 30. To have the same # working hours that takes 4 workers now for 3 then. Notice the hiring line got steeper while economic indicators said the total receipts probably flatlined.
Same with retail.
So the false hiring spree is now ending.
I've been waiting for this...
These jobs used to be temporary for a lot of folks, looking for other work or students looking to pay their way through school (old school for sure). With few other jobs to move to and as the hours are being cut most are staying put.
Add in the demands for wages that don't match the work businesses are hiring less and many are going out of business and those they are hiring don't really care about what they consider a shit job.
Example: Went to Red Lobster recently,,, worse service and food I ever got from them. Last time for me,,, I imagine this is happening all over. The new management theme is higher prices, less food and poor service. Many are starting to eat at home again as the restaurant prices are getting too high.
It's steady as she goes... downhill.
Great.
Another sector where the job prospects are red hot, young folks enroll in an online university to get a degree in Bartending & Waitressing, and just when they graduate (with $50K in student loans) the job market plummets and they're left without the income they thought they'd command.
Suggested Food&Beverage Marketing Slogan:
Git Ya Fat Ass Down To Your Local Tavern At Night - Slackers! Beer Ain't Just For Breakfast!