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Gold Surges After Goldman Says It Is Time To "Put Rate Hikes On Hold For Now"
While equity futures are modestly higher compared to Friday's early 9:15 am close, where only a short, 45 minute long bloodbath was allowed on Good Friday after the worst jobs report in two years, the one asset class that has moved the most by far this evening is gold, which has spiked by 1.5% and is on the verge of breaking out above the resistance level that has proven a tractor beam to any momentum breakout over the past 2 months.
If gold rises above $1225 overnight, or rather if the trading desk under the supervision of Benoit Gilson, the BIS' "head of FX and gold" allows the price of paper gold to reach that level, a huge short squeeze will be imminent because, as a reminder, in addition to the EUR, gold shorts are also at a record high.
As for the reason why gold is suring off the bat, the main reason cited by trading desks is what Goldman announced late on Friday and what Zero Hedge reported first, namely Goldman's economic team strong hint to the Federal Reserve that "believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now."
This is the punchline from Goldman's 180 degree turn on its "above consensus" growth forecast for the US economy:
Simultaneous shocks are more likely to do the trick. Exhibit 5 provides an example of what could raise the confidence score above 75%, a likelihood one might consider to qualify as “reasonable confidence.” The chart shows the marginal impact on the confidence score of a combination of shocks. A ½pp improvement in the growth outlook would raise the confidence score by 8bp, a ½pp pick-up in wage growth on top of that would raise the confidence score by another 4pp and an additional ¼pp shock to inflation expectations would be enough to boost the confidence score for the combined scenario to over 75%.
It Is Hard to Be Confident
The FRB/US model is a helpful tool for analyzing the uncertainty around the inflation outlook, but it comes with a number of caveats. Inflation expectations, for example, play a very important role in determining inflation 2-3 years ahead, resulting in relatively minor roles for recent news on payrolls or actual inflation. Our analysis is therefore best seen as an illustration of the issues involved.
The analysis suggests that it is hard to be “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook given current economic conditions, unless several inflation drivers rise at the same time. We therefore do not have much confidence in the inflation outlook and believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now.
One can assume that the BIS gold selling division will be very busy when the Fed trial balloons not only an end to rate hikes, but leaks the first hint that QE4 is just around the corner.
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See no matter what happens or what legislation is intended, the Wealthy with Hijack it for their own benefit.
Like providing a Charter to Wall Street Banks, they have been Hijacking it's power for 200 years.
Gold is money, all else is peanuts.
-Barnum & Bailey
Are we going to have to short cover some folks??
Goldman is just saying what most here on ZH have known for over 5 years now.
Fuck you Goldman Sucks you theiving lying motherfuckers -- all of you bastards.
looks likes someone was short...
PM's will go up only as far as they let them go up.
Look at the charts again, the surge didn't last long. Who's trading tonight?
Gold Surges Most Since Lehman?
Nobody knows why gold surged tonight.
Yes Goldman said something but that is all you can say.
Gold surges on essentially deflationary news...
Everything is fucked-upside-down and backwards.
I hope the shorties get burnt to death, maybe gold jumps the proverbial $100 in one session. Reading to much King World News I guess.
"This way to the egress" said the paper gold seller...
I wish GSucks had stayed bearish on Gold, it means they are buying. By going long, they are selling or getting ready to fleece their customers/sheeple.
Pump and dump.
And since they control the Fed the rates will not rise.
Bullish for everything...until they pull the rug out and the muppets...fall.
The winning move is not to play.
Forget the paper games. Just get your mitts on as many oz´s of gold and silver as you can before some fucking billionaire or two gets all panicked and decides to convert their tractor trailer full of fiat for phyzz. It won´t take too many of them to vaporize the entire supply of available phyzz, so don´t be complacent.
Well Fockewulf190, why haven't any billionaires shown any interest in doing that already? I've been waiting nearly five years.
Have you forgotten that Alan, and Ben, and now Janet, have been doing everything within their power to keep the spice flowing to the upper crust? The problem is, the game these central banksters and all those irresponsible governments are playing is FINITE and will end with GAME OVER. Once CONFIDENCE is then lost in fiat currencys, the mad scramble for alternative storages of wealth, and specifically hard assets, will blow away anything we have seen to date. The rich people of this world can, and will, empty the shelves of any and all available gold and silver, and when it happens that supply will vanish faster than Led Zeppelin reunion tickets. The window of opportunity for the remainding 99% of us on this planet to buy cheap gold and silver is still open...but when it shuts, it will not be slowly. The CME did not implement those gold and precious metal circut breakers back last December because they were bored and had nothing to do. They can read the writing on the wall.
Don´t sell any of your stack. Add to it if you can. Your going to need it to get through the Great Reset.
Did Bernanke not say "No rate normalization during my lifetime?"
With US debt at $18.175 trillion and US unfunded liabilities above $150 trillion, or about $1,400,000 per taxpayer, and rising at $70,000 per taxpayer per year, it will take a brave and insane Fed to increase interest rates.
You're about 50 Trillion short on the Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. unfunded liabilities. 200 Trillion is more realistic.
Why don't more people understand what you are saying?
DOE, K-12 indoctrination, idiots. I mean look who they vote for. Fuc them all they will get whats coming.
200 Trillion is more realistic.
Kotlikoff has it at around $250 trillion. He had it at $211 trillion about 4 years ago and he has it increasing at $11 trillion a year:
A National Debt Of $14 Trillion? Try $211 TrillionAUGUST 06, 2011
http://www.npr.org/2011/08/06/139027615/a-national-debt-of-14-trillion-t...
Blink! U.S. Debt Just Grew by $11 TrillionIn the course of that year, the U.S. government’s fiscal gap -- the true measure of the nation’s indebtedness -- rose by $11 trillion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-08-08/blink-u-s-debt-just-gr...
So Fed will in fact have to raise rates then. "Only thing left is strong dollar." I think this Iran deal is going to go down in flames...no way Goldman is long gold. This is about oil not peace.
As in "higher prices oil to pay for everything." No way "Israel" wants anything but war.
I think this is a suckers rally.
King Dollar...long continued explosion in US energy growth at absolutely dirt cheap prices.
Cali and the water thing is the tell.
Got that right OP - the Fed is in a bitch of a box - give the size of the debt, there is NO way they can raise rates more than some miniscule amount (to say they did) before bringing it back down to zero at their next meeting. I suspect this is all orchestrated anyway, somebody at the Fed talks to somebody at Goldman...next comes the Hilderbranth.
What fucks me up is that talking heads on the shit box still state, "derka derka they may raise rates!" Horseshit. No way rates will ever be raised. They're in a no win situation with us the taxpayers as water carriers.
NOTHING will happen until September now. And the funny part is that it will take the EU crisis to force the Fed to strengthen the dollar to save the Euro.
Crude is up a buck too.
Everything is fixed. The end of the world has ended and I'm a goin fishin.
Tarpon and sharks are running down here heavy. Good idea. Golf can wait.
Calgon, take me away......!
You have to be of a certain age to understand that....
Serenity Now!
That was a great movie. Really blew me away when they cancelled Firefly.
.
I thought the price of paper gold didn't matter?
Oh, it only doesn't matter when it goes down, when it goes up (however briefly) it's important.
Got it.
Does this evening's silver chart look like there's a lid on it at 17.10?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
In a word, NO ...
Charted resistance is at $17.10, 17.40, and 17.45 near term.
Medium resistance at 18.50 and if that doesn't hold, Alice - To The Moon !!
We all wish.
Silver just broke up through a long term trendline drawn down from 2011 (depending on how you draw it). If there is follow through then the all clear is possible.
Wow, a 25 cent bump. Let me go clean my BVDs.
Shorts will not give up without a fight. Gap from $1202 will get filled.
FDR confiscated Gold and made it illegal to hold - April 5, 1933.
http://www.knology.net/~bilrum/goldconfiscation1933.htm
Today is an anniversary.
Bankruptcy of U.S in 1933 & State of Emergency, War Powers & Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917.
The United States went "bankrupt" in 1933. [President Roosevelt Executive Order 6073, 6102,6111, 6260; Senate Report 93-549, pgs. 187 & 594, 1973]. In 1950, declared "bankruptcy and reorganization." Secretary of Treasury appointer receiver in the bankruptcy [Reorganization Plan, No. 26, 5 U.S.C.A. 903; Public Law 94-564; Legislative History, Pg. 5967.
To reinerate,
The Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. Is Bankrupted. The Emergency Banking Emergency Act of 1933 put the Bankrupted US into receicership to the IMF, World Bank & BIS.
Criminal. 14th Amendment made "Citizen" Slaves out of every single man, woman, child & future childdren. All assets, land (making Americans Tenants on our own soil) labor, future labor & American Souls Aka birth certificates were securized & put up as collateral to pay back a Criminal Loan the BANKSTERS know can never, ever be paid back.
In addition, the Act made de facto all "Citizen" Slaves Enemies of the newly formed Criminal UNITED STATES, CORP. INC.
a little more detail and back up...surrendered all our gold to the feds to clear the tab..
http://www.barefootsworld.net/admiralty.html
erm, do i understand your post correctly? dude, the IMF world bank and IMF werent even created until after WW2.
Always with the pesky details. He just got confused once he got out of the time machine.
THe miners better be rockin tomorrow!!!!
Ya think ????
Up 3-4 % in first hour, then fade bigtime into the close, down around 5 %
You talk about FRIDAY the 13th ??
HOW about Monday the 13th ???
posted an youtube video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAdl3ebyhLE
How about making the video public?
Comes up as a PRIVATE VIDEO
Sorry
Asshat
This certainly couldn't have ANYTHING to do with the possible oncoming GREXIT, could it?
No, of course not.
it is snowing in toronto but my boat is going in the water next weekend...I want to watch the shitstorm from beautiful Georgian Bay...
At 3 a.m. EST, the limey bastards under orders from the U.S. Treasury (meaning JPM) will sell 4 times annual gold production in 3.1 seconds and erase all of tonight's gains...ring the bell, Dr. Pavlov! Absolutely guaranteed...
Already starting right now. The gold fix has been "fixed" so it's much easier now to control the "price". Funny, my ounces in an overseas private vault didn't change at all.
My question is "Why would the Fed, BOE care about gold being higher? Who, besides the Chinese, benefits from Au at 1200?"
Perhaps it's US and UK insiders buying for own needs.
Nothing else makes sense, since it would have no significant effect on the monetary system if gold were much higher -- say, 1900.
As an afterthought, the only other rational explanation that comes to mind, is the deliberate bankrupting of PM miners, to bring about consolidation (big, connected predators move in).
Because they can't let something real compete with fiat.
It'll be 1200 as long as computers are up and running.
None of this shit means anything.
indeed. itll be allowed to float $40 either way for the illusion of a free floating commodity. Like anyone believes that anymore, anyway
Like an 18 wheeler barreling down a mountain road coated with black ice, you think your in control with your hands on the wheel....until
.
Other than the circle jerk of the greexit, now that a budget has been passed for the year, once October comes around and the republicans start to do "something", the economy will begin to implode just in time for the dems and the media to blame the republicans just in time for the elections.
This will not only insure a dem president, but the "need" for further stimulus measures(QE4) because the great work by Barry was being hampered by the evil republicans and so emergency measures will be necessary. Not to mention whatever hell will break loose with our "deal" with Our friends Iran.
Which means gold is going to be goat roped for who knows how long. Sounds pretty plausible and I wouldn't put it past him.
Which could mean a third term because we are in a CRISIS!!!
"Which could mean a third term because we are in a CRISIS!!!"
Our firearms define who's "crisis" it will be:
If we are unarmed, the "crisis" is ours.
If we are armed, the "crisis" is theirs.
The banksters need to repay us.
Guillotines define how the "crisis" ends.
As someone who is 1/2 French, and despises most of my frenchness with the exception of the guillotine, I share your sentiment.
"Guillotine" is a rhetorical device.
Wall, tree, or guillotine will do just fine.
The banksters need to repay us.
I wasn't sure, but I think the third term is becoming a reality.
I showed my daughter the nurse how to fire an automatic fire last night... in the dark with a lazer, from the hip.
For anyone who actually believes there will be a rate hike...... I have some ocean front shit property in missouri that i'd like to smell you. Inbox me for details
Another indicator that the dollar crash is scheduled.
Will be a prelude to the great dollar to SDR switch out.
The banksters need to repay us.
"Valued Customer, unfortunately we are unable to accept your most recent mortgage payment in US dollars. For your benefit, we will accept your payment in gold or Bitcoins. Please remit your payment in either or both. We have extended your payment date by 3 days to accommodate this change. Thank you. The Yoke and Plow Bank of Zion."
When all else fails the Oligarchs take us to war.
It's on/off/on QE cycles until a currency crisis.
Fixed
They make the niggers rap about hating whitey, they make the whites sing about hating god and republicans. they promote gayness everywhere, they promote feminist movements, they break up traditional good ol families. they cover up all the black on white murders/rapes/crimes and then exploit when a white guy farts too loud because that is racist. they use our military for their wars, they buy off every politician because they control the money supply. they look out for only their own, they did 9-11, they did us liberty, they did lavon affair, they have people thinking wrong is right, right is wrong, dumb is smart and smart is dumb, they promote black men with white women.... just look at every tv show now that they produce and direct. pretty soon a white guy won't be able to get a date due to their all out war on the white male, they killed JFK, they killed RFK, they killed ABE, they tried to kill jackson twice, every show the white guy is the geek/dork/nerd/joke while the black guy is intelligent/strong/powerful/cool..... i could go on forever
Chad,
Life must be very difficult for you--my condolences.
"i could go on forever."
Like all rambling lunatics. ZH knows how to pick 'em.
Oy vey Chad! They, they, they – who is they? Eskimos? Negros? Chinese? Arabs? Mestizos? Polynesians? Japanese? Laplanders? Hmmmm, who are we leaving out? Oh yeah, it can’t be the jews, because that would be anti-semitism. Oh shudder – God forbid! So then just who the hell is behind all this?
FYI... Palestinians are Semites. More so than 90% of Euro-American Jews.
Oh, and the issue isn't "Jews", but (Revisionist) Zionists. Not all Jews are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jews -- even though Zionists love to fly the "Flag of Convenience" that is Judaism, and love to pretend to speak for all Jews.
As these facts and truths are getting out and educating ever more ZHers and other people, the imperialist agenda and slimy deceptions of said Zionists are being exposed.
OY! In world 95% jews are Ashkenazi Khazarian of Turko-Finn Asiatic Mongoloid decent. Much inbreeding makes kosher tribe. All jews have hive mentality. All have same group evolutionary strategy. Good is what’s good for jew; bad is what’s bad for jew. Every jew taught from birth is different from goyim. Jew looks out for jew. House of Rothschild and shabez goy fronts control all world wealth, mass media, education, judeo-Christianity, Christian Zionism, etc. You stupid goyim really are cattle. Oy Vey!
It isn't that the Fed will never raise rates, it is that they will try their hardest to prolong it from happening at all costs.
Sen Menendez is a small fish. when will despot grand inquisitor holder free jonnie corzine. we all know the answer.
The reason gold is holding up now is because of the new physical exchanges around the globe and in China.It's now physical vs. Chicago paper ponzi.
No it isn't.
Another Sunday night, another false hope gold story for stupid goyim cattle. Make you mesmerized with more magic act about gold. Gold go down BIG this week. Make you focus on beautiful shiksa as our kosher syndicate picks your pockets clean. Heh heh. You never learn. OY OY OY!!!
You shame and desecrate the word "Rabbi", cabalist swine.
His posts are pure satire.
By shaming and desecrating the word, Rabbi, he has done what he had set out to do.
You are taking him as real...when he is not.
(Unless I am taking your indignation as literal when I need be reading it as satire...)
He is like Liberal and MDB
Please breed and eat the children as that will solve not having any potatoes. (Ref: "A Modest Proposal", J. Swift) ;-)
Shame on you!! You offend the Rabbi with ad hominem attacks. You are a racist anti-semite! OY! OY! OY!
Vey, Vey, Vey. You are pretty fly for a rabbi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xabf8tChnfk
About five more years of this and people will be asking, "what are interest rates?"
Not in Bernanke's lifetime.
if he last as long as Greenspan it will be decades.
QE; to infinity...and beyond
Can you spell fizz? As in time to stack some moar fizz.
Venting on ZH. Changes nothing. I said nothing. Everything is AWESOME
"The FRB/US model is a helpful tool for analyzing the uncertainty around the inflation outlook, but it comes with a number of caveats."
Just to undermine the mystique a little you too can download your very own FRB/US model from the FED; look out for that sensitivity now .......
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/frbus/us-models-package.htm
For those who don't know about him here's FOFOA's perspective.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/
Thanks for the reminder...
Boycott Goldman and don't buy their products.
Put them out of business.
Tell god to go to hell.
right now it is up 18 usd at 1217.