This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Even The Fed Admits Bureau Of Labor Statistics Data Is Now Meaningless
Shortly after Japan admitted all of its "rising wages" data for 2014 had been fabricated and on close examination all the optimistic increase in base wages was merely pre-election propaganda by the Abe government...
... we now find none other than the Philly Fed admitting that it no longer can report its state coincident and leading indexes because "the recent benchmark data revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics produced greater changes to the Philadelphia Fed's estimating methodology than are typical. While estimates for most states do appear to be reasonable, those for some states are not."
In other words, the BLS has "adjusted" its "data" so much (to fit within its political propaganda goalseek parameters) not even the Federal Reserve can make any sense of it, and can no longer use it for its own data analysis purposes.
Luckily for the permalgobulls, the BLS had enough credibility that its horrible March jobs data was enough to launch the S&P 500 on the biggest intraday ramp so far in 2015.
Source: Philly Fed, h/t James
»
- 22388 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Not just meanless, but counter-productive when your spinning things in a different direction.....
Like a rat, eating their young
Things fall apart, the center cannot hold.
You can almost hear the fabric starting to rip.
the fabric has torn long ago, what you are hearing is the sound of the dried up duct tape that's been holding it together coming undone
Like a rat, eating their young...
or jumping ship....
LOL there are so many divergences and contradictions the spinners on CNBS are getting dizzy with their memes.....BWAAAAAA
OK if only about half of the people in america between 18 and 65 dont/wont work, doesnt this make it about 50% unemployment?
Goalseeking...last available cover for "rate increase" rumor
Paid for by the folks who bring you TBT
So WTF? how come those "public servants" fabricating data still have their jobs and pensions?
Better yet, where are the newsbabes asking the tough questions of the legislators whose job it is to provide oversight of the aforesaid public servants?
The fabrication of financial data required by the American business machine for its effective decision-making is treason. You'd also think our creditors would have some seroius interest in this issue as well.
ala the "market" ?
Or possibly they're just Illiterate and semi-lucid like everyone else is our brave new techno-world.
Start working at home with Google ! Its by-far the best mixed bag of goods I've had. Last Thursday I got a trademark new Bmw since getting a check for $6474 this - 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was coming with house at least $77 per hour. I work through this connection, go.to tech marker for work detail.... www.globe-report.com
If it is from the government you are assured only on one thing and that is that it is propaganda to be used against the citizens of the United States of America.
Its the law bitchez.
You can't make this stuff up, errrr....... ummmmm.....
NO, Say it ain't so
Ignorance is Strength. Listen to your big brother....
I assume the methedology used to caluclate lay offs in fracking states needs to be "adjusted"?
The US is becoming irrelevant in the global economy - and within the US, the people in the lower 99% are now totally irrelevant. Slow job growth sends fake markets to the moon - all BS.
Time to buy local, grow local, eat local, manufacture local, entertain local, ....... billions spent by people on latest film - majority still sucked in by bread and circus.
And the curtain begin to fall.........
How long before they achnowledge, this is all made up?
Don't hold your breath I am waiting only 6 years :)
Did they uncover the fraud ring that conspires to release polar opposite employment data every other day just to generate trades? It wasn't like they were trying to hide their operation. It was 100% predictable. And BTW, Keynesianism has zero hope of working without accurate data.
And BTW, Keynesianism has zero hope of working, hence inaccurate data.
FIFY
"Seasonally adjusted data for metropolitan areas will be unavailable until further notice"
haha ... love it
don't like the data ... just quit reporting it ... things must be getting fugly out there
From the Fed page: "Both indexes will be unavailable until further notice." Didn't they do something like this with M3 when the numbers became frightening?
Yup.
"While estimates for most states do appear to be reasonable, those for some states are not."
It's not at all clear what "reasonable" means, if it doesn't mean "fitting the Everything is Awesome narrative." If the facts do not fit the narrative, the SOP is to get rid of the facts.
The Fed can make sense of it. They're just afraid to. The boys at the Fed are paid very well to tell the world what George AKerlof's wife wants the world to hear.
That assuredly isn't "The sandniggers fucked working-class white people out of their first chance for good jobs at a living wage in a generation in the shale oilpatch."
Not everybody's "everything is awesome" narrative is the same. This is the part where one group's lies start to seriously conflict with another group's lies, despite them being roughly all on the same side.
The Fed doesn't want to show growth that is too strong so they can continue ZIRP and hopefully the next round of QE.
Politicians want to show a flat-out strong, reboulding economy coming into the next election.
Can't have it both ways.
+++
Something about tangled webs and the practice of deception come to mind...
"We are data dependant, but the data is wrong, so we are using different data. And no, you can't see it."
At least Japan's bogus data seems to track quite well with the "real" data. So they got that going for them.
"Luckily for the permalgobulls, the BLS had enough credibility that its horrible March jobs data was enough to launch the S&P 500 on the biggest intraday ramp so far in 2015."
Nope, you're wrong. Instead, it means BLS is so bullshit that not even the algos are buying it, and thus smart enough to do just the opposite of whatever news the BLS announces.
BLS - I can put B as Bull and S as Shit, but still have no idea what word is best for L.
Liars
Losers
Louts
Leeches
Lameass
When the data is so bad it can't be reported, simply quit reporting. Easy.
That's exactly what they did at the CDC when Thomas Frieden wouldn't shut up about Ebola.
They simply brought in Ron Klain, and voila! No more Ebola!
And like they say, "Old news is no news". So bad news is water under the bridge. But hey, we lived through that, right? So please focus on our next set of predictions, not what just happened. (Maybe when governments start to purposely delay this kind of information, it can now be taken as a sure sign things are screwed up worse than they want to admit).
But... but.... but....if we told the people the real numbers, and didn't suppress the facts about GMOs, vaccines, fluoride, and the unstoppable Fukushima radiation, they'd lynch us.
No shit Sherlock
Sooo its all make believe, but we're not sure what's make believe, some might be but we know that, we're just not sure how believable the make believe is. Just print $20,000,000,000,0000 give it to the banks and top .001%, and get on with it. EVERYTHING IN THE FINANCIAL WORLD IS A FRAUD. Japan fraud, China fraud, USoA fraud, Europe fraud. The fact that they're confused about which lie is a lie, and how much of a lie it is, is just the icing on the cake
I'm not a programmer but the line goes like this.
When lie is detected = Make bigger shit on the news
Public Function GenerateBiggerShitOnTheNews(MaxBS As Double, ObamaFedMaxLies As Double) As String
If MaxBS > ObamaFedMaxLies Then
Return "Plane crashes into the Alps for no apparent reason." & vbCrLf & _
"Story at 6."
End If
End Function
Now do you understand why there's
Blood on top of the Georgia GuideStones?
Now what do we do? If we can't trust the BLS and the government, who can we trust? Obama maybe?
why are we still usijng "estimated" data in the 1st place in 2015? employers have to withold taxes & report to irs. there are <200m working people in us. in 1990 200m rows was a big dataset. today an iphone could handle it. as a technology "problem" there's absolutely no reason this data should ever be more than a payroll cycle old, much less have a "material" adjustment/revision. just have the nsa send an nsl to adp (assuming they haven't already) & it could just about be realtime! yes, I know the reason[s], just amazed nobody points out the absurdity of the latency of what by modern standards is a fairly modest dataset with comparatively low churn (how many people start/lose a job in a given month?)
We're in it deep.
Hey jakesdad: I'm estimating that next month your income will rise by 40%. Now doesn't that make you feel just great? And if it doesn't, well you'll be told it didn't two months from next month. Great system, huh?
The fact that they still call it Non-Farm just kills me. Everything you said is correct, but consider this. According to the BLS as of 2009 they had 2,500 employees. According to the BLS their budget in 2013 was $618,000,000. That comes to around $250,000 per employee. I'm not saying that's what the average pay is, I'm sure that would include costs, and pension, but as you said, if a computer program is used to figure out these numbers what are all these employees doing? Figuring out new methods to do something that seems pretty straight forward. How many people are paying taxes? Simply do it quarterly. If all these monthly numbers can be revised years down the road what does it matter anyways.
Black Budgets
Exactly what came to my mind. Runs over a trillion a year.
States that are NOT reasonable:
Texas & North Dakota just for starters....
It's all Hawaiian birth certificates to me.
The Philly Fed must be racist.
please fox throw kernen a lifeline.
All part of the process of dismantling America. Create a crisis of confidence, then SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!
The prescription these psychopathic secular nihilists have in the wings is going to be truly frightening.
Waiting for the big O-Ke-Doke.
I am an avid Fed watcher because I just love listening to an endless bunch of disingenuous convolutednothingshit.
"And by 'some states' we mean 'all states.' "