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Was This It For America's "Hiring Spree"?
On the surface today's JOLTS report was good: in fact, for some it was great because the one item that everyone automatically looks for, the number of job openings rose once more, surging to 5.133 million in February (recall that JOLTS is one month behind the most recent NFP report). This was the highest since January 2001.
Looking at the internals, something Janet Yellen is sure to do as the JOLTS is supposedly her favorite labor market indicator, however showed some other aspects of a job market that were hardly encouraging.
First, unlike in previous years, the BLS has managed to coordinate the two data sets - the payrolls and the net turnover (hires less separations) - into a coherent picture. This is what the latest data looks like when reconciling the NFP report and the JOLTs: again, it looks largely as it should.
As a reminder, it was Zero Hedge who back in September 2013 caught the BLS fabricating either NFP or JOLTS data, when the drift between the two data series soared to a record cumulative 200K, and which the BLS had no choice but to "fix" with a major data revision.
The divergence in the two data series, historically convergent, was seen highlighted on the chart below:
We are happy that the BLS has remembered to keep track of these two goalseeked series as repeat embarrassments would not look good for the agency which even the Fed says has lost credibility.
Which brings us to the most important data point of all: hires. As the following chart shows, whereas in the past the total number of hires tracked the cumulative 12 month change in jobs tick for tick, this time is has failed to do so, and as the chart below shows, the hires rate - a leading indicator - has dropped sharply, and at 4.916MM was not only the lowest since August...
... but also represents the biggest two-month drop since Lehman!
Again, keep in mind this is part of that whopping February jobs report which came in far stronger than expected. We already know the March jobs data was abysmal, so one can be sure that Hires in March continued the downward trajectory and the worst trend since Lehman will be confirmed in one month's time.
And the second part of today's JOLTS bad news: the number of separations tumbled to 4.650MM, down from 4.834MM last month, and back to November 2014 levels. And while discharges dropped to 1.591MM, in line with November, it was the drop in Quits that will be troubling, as this is the one indicator which all those who had promised a surge in wages is imminent. After all, one quits a job if one has something better in store. Well, the number of Quits also dropped to the lowest since November, suggesting that the opportunities for well-paying jobs in America's job market just dropped.
In short: while one can kiss any hopes for a wage rebound in the coming year goodbye, it is the plunge in the hires that is the biggest flashing red light in today's JOLTS data.... and, paradoxically, may well be the catalyst of today's stock ramp, because as even the shoeshine boy knows, the worse the news for the economy, the better it is for stocks.
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Since Lehman? Sell!!!
Since Lehman TM
fixed it
Hiring spree?
Avg 300,000 per week fired.
Every week since 2009.
Alright...following linked article attempts to show the real, unadjusted jobs data about who's got the jobs and asks the question how an economy that needs ever fewer workers can have ever more consumers?
http://econimica.blogspot.com/
Glad to hear your thoughts.
Wow, that means over 93M have been fired/laid off! (Some have the misfortune of being in the queue multiple times, I know.)
Apply at the gubmint. After all, they're only here to help.
Do you meet the sociopathy requirements?
Fresh Produce Sportswear LLC, a women's clothing retailer based in Boulder, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the face of what its founder called "significant and material financial challenges."
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2015/04/06/colorado-based-retaile...
"We restructured some folks."
Now that's a bloody residual!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LxThONlUNIQ/UX-bBasqA-I/AAAAAAAALgo/bfS2WG_KN3...
Could be worse, we could all be dead from Ebola?
pods
Ebola, how retro.
Every chart posted comign from any corporation or government entity since 2009 has been complete bullshit. Here is the only real chart representing the economy:
____________________________________________________
Do I detect a deceleration at the end?
_________________________________ (._.)
Of course it's bullshit, the truth would leave them hanging from lamp posts or meeting their new room-mate, Bubba.....
Detroit is hiring. Another new stadium with all the fix’ins is getting built soon.
The 'JOLTS' hire numbers are still trending steeply upward and job openings are at a 14 year high. As I said & many will agree (but may not be PC), if you have a college degree, are white or Asian and between the ages of 23-35 the job market is as good or better than in the late 1990s
Is that you Million Dollar Bonus - ?
What if I'm white, have a college degree, and like Asians between 23-35 who put out like it was the late 1990's?
pods
you mean like Tiki Tiki Washy Washy?
1990's South Jersey was notorious for Tiki Tiki Washy Washy massage spa parlors.
NoVa
How so. Are you in the age range. Why are so few jobs coming from that age bracket. What's better than the late 90's. Starting pay ease of getting a job. So I assume you are 35 and just got a new job since you are able to compare it to the late 90's?
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/earth_to_power/2015/04/noble-ener...
Bullshit, and you know it.
Almost every Millenial I've come across in the last 3 or so years is reeling from student loan debt, and a shitty economy. Just about every one of them are working a soul-sucking McJob, plus doing side work or working a 2nd or third job. Very few I've met have solid, full-time jobs, in fact they're most likely jobs which will evaporate when the bubble(s) bursts.
Happy now. Got robot to work. Not many robot fixers needed.
Robot/3D Printer Repair...growth industry
They will quickly figure out how to get the robots to fix the robots and build new robots...mighta been a movie about this...robots try to destroy the human race and one of them eventually becomes Governor of California.
Good Lord! Biggest 2 data points out of 84! Run for the hills, we suddenly have a Zero TrendTM!!
Do robots burn?
Well then WHY is .gov importing millions upon millions of immigrants each year? I think we know why...
IT worker replaced by foreign labor regrets voting for Obama
Laid-off worker pleads with Senate panel to stem tide of cheap labor
American tech employees forced to train H-1B replacements
California imports foreign guest workers to process unemployment claims
A U.S. visa allows people to come to the country for high-tech jobs. Feb. 24, 2015 News10/KXTV
http://washtech.org/news/industry/display.php?ID_Content=5363
Another tech-worker, Diane Drozdowski, was forced out of her job at American Express in Phoenix, AZ. After her manager used "bully tactics and psychological warfare" to try to get her to quit, resulting in a mental breakdown, she was replaced by two Indian workers based in India. American Express flew these Indian workers to Phoenix and forced her to train them, upon threat of losing her severance pay.
YES
QE IV in 3, 2, 1.........
The "compassionates" in the government just use unemployment numbers to manipulate excuses to cut interest rates. The boomer trash cares nothing about job reports since their "retirement income" comes from house flipping and the equity line to buy that oversized truck they can't afford to fuel. And the boomers are the voting majority so everything is all about them and their stupid agendas. Which is to be threatened of new money which is why their elected junkies even passed Deregulation unscathed.
I wonder how the CEO's are even allowed to keep making 300 times the average workers' pay... if not more (esp since jobs get outsourced).
"Scotty, we neeeeeed more bartenders."
"I'm fudging the number all I can Captain."
The banksters need to repay us.