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Stocks Gyrate Wildly Following Two Consecutive Stop Hunts, Close With A Whimper Despite More Fed Dovishness
If there is one word to describe today's market, as well as the market of the past week, past month, and perhaps all of 2015, it is "stop hunts." Well, technically it's two words.
The first stop hunt took place, as is now a daily routine, right after the US market open, when the entire Dow Jones increasingly, looking like the infamous, illiquid and massively overvalued (until such time as it was halted) CYNK stock, ramped, then tumbled the moment reality was glimpsed courtesy of the abysmal EIA crude report which sent crude crashing on its biggest one day drop in two months, also sending stocks into the red...
... only to be followed by another stop hunt, this time with the dump first then the ramp after the FOMC minutes were released.
Even the traditional last minute ramp was feeble by normal Fed standard, and barely managed to push the S&P or the DJIA solidly into the green. The only outlier were transports which were buoyed by the plunge in oil to close at the day's high.
Commodities were broadly lower pressued by a horrible day for crude longs who after the dramatic short squeeze ramp in the past 4 days had declared (once again) that bottom for oil is in, only to find, shockingly, find that it isn't.
They will be even more shocked once the realize that Cushing now has about 10% storage capacity left.
If and when it does fill up, it will not be blood on the streets, it will be oil. Literally.
Rates had a mixed day with pronounced curve flattening, following another strong 10 Year auction. Come to think of it, it has been a while since any pundit mentioned Net Interest margin as a bullish catalyst for bank earnings.
And with the last trading day ahead of the start of earnings season behind us, bring on Q1 earnings: remember the more horrible, and the greater the EPS drops (offset by gargantuan pro-forma and non-GAAP adjustments), the better it is for stocks, because it means that the Dow Data Dependent and utterly terrified Fed will have no choice but to keep waiting, and waiting, and waiting...
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Time for a sing-along
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=w5Fgp-KihIA
I knew The Bernank.
The Bernank was a friend of mine.
Mr. bowl cut, troll-esque, midget Yellen, you're no Bernank!
Free fill up if you buy a pack of smokes.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
There is no spoon, period.
Therefore, no significant "correction" in the "market" can occur until all the shorts have been roasted.
There is one spoon, it's a dirty one indeed, should be so lucky next time, I promise.
You wanna see some fucked-up spoon shit, here you go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWBFKL6H7rI
John Travoltas hair will add storage.
thank you Gramma Yellen.... when will you begin raising rates?
She speaks moves and sounds like a robot; perhaps she is a prototype...???
“Central Bank Survivor” by Destiny’s Child
Now that you won’t get out of our lives -- We’re so much worse
You thought that we'd be rich with you -- But we’re poorer
Thought ZIRP would be over by now -- But it won't stop
Central bank survivors (What?)
We’re not gonna give up (What?)
Gonna work harder (What?)
I'm wishin' you the worst (the worst), and pray that you are cursed (whoo-oo)
But I'm not gonna blast you on the radio (I'm better than that)
I'm not gonna hate on you in the magazines (I'm better than that)
I'm not gonna compromise my sanity (I’m better than that)
But you know I will diss you on Zero Hedge,
‘cause my mama encourages that
Central bank survivors, we’re gonna make it, keep on survivin’ …
(If I surround myself with positive things I’ll gain prosperity)
"Market".... LOl, Tyler's been taking his crazy pills again.
TF and NQ just closed only up around 1%, its basically a down day.
No matter, it just means more pent up buying for tomorrow as slow learners realize the bottom is in for this last 'correction' and higher lows = higher highs.
A small part of me feels very sorry for the humans attempting to beat the machines with those 'stops'.
Perhaps instead of "stop-loss" it should be termed "create-loss"
The only way to win ... is not to play.....
Yes, volume suggests many daily traders are remaining on the sidelines, which begets even lower volume, so the situation spirals.
Of course, traders know the ratio of avg profit-to-loss (payoff) is crucial for survival, but it seems, at least intraday, machines are pushing the normal limits farther (likely due to ease of movement in this low volume environment), causing a dilemma: widening stops helps avoid their games, but leaves one susceptible to sustained, manic moves.
Yep - and it is killing me...should have gambled on the metals.
I learned a painful, and valuable, lesson about stops a long time ago when my stops got blown out, and then the share price levitated by the end of the day.
cant wait for earnings season.
company x is expecting a 0.01 on the bottom and 1 dollars in revenue.
company reports 0.02 and 2 dollars in revenue.
stawk goes up 30 percent because it ''beat expectations''.
this is what will happen, no fucking joke ( not in those numerical terms, but u get the idea)
this shit needs to stop and it needs to stop now.
stone these bankers to death
"Lowered Expectations"; the new normal.
TND Guest Contributor: Dave Kranzler
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=463826
In my day the Curve moved at both ends...sometimes we had Bear Flattenings and sometimes we had Bull Steepenings...oh those were the days.
Kids today have it so easy. Rates down, Curve flattens, rates up Curve steepens. Yawn.
We even had defaults. That was when you bought a bond and never got your Principal back. Not like today, when anybody can refinance at lower rates for ever and ever....
Time to reverse split the TVIX again...
Keltner Channel Surfer can you conjur us another tune, your Beatles one yesterday was best in show!!
Only for you, Squiddy, do I take instant requests:
Yesterday, a 2.0% 10-yr looked so far away
Now it looks as though it’s here to stay
Oh, I believe in yesterday
Suddenly, I’m not half the trader I used to be
There’s a shadow hanging over me
Oh lower yields stay, stubbornly
Why she won’t lift-off?
I don’t know, she wouldn’t say
My duration’s structured wrong
Now I long for yesterday
Yesterday, POMO was such an easy game to play
Now I’ll actually have to earn my pay
Oh, I believe in yesterday
I thought about that and figured if they do; it will go straight down. It should be around $3.50 right now based on the obvious volatility, but they have rigged that as they took the low end of TVIX, which was $2.00 about 2 -3 weeks ago in a matter of 10 minutes it became a $1.50 and maybe lower...just another squeeze based on their 20/20 foresight.
The Law of Diminishing returns as the FED is losing more and more credibility. The only truth told today was the FED's "transparency"; not in the context it was used. How long before the grand theft takes place, when they collapse the bond market and by default the rest? If and when QE4 is announced; that will be the last "Ha-Rah".
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Does anyone believe we will see another Presidential election? The President acts more & more as "The Dictator In Chief"; this is not coincidence and I do not think they can keep the market afloat through the election cycle.
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Also, all the replacement parts to transition out of the USD based system will be fully in place no later than October 2016. Therefore, I assume that within 6-9 months following, the flood of Treasuries comes home and on top of that the FED stated they have over 800 Billion in ST Treasuries coming due that will be turned into Long-term. I suspect the Shadow Balance sheet is way beyond anyone's believe.
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I watched a FOMC meeting from 2011 and the FED always gets it wrong. Bernanke stated he and the FED realize that extended low interest rates hurts savers, Hedge Funds, Pensions funds etc; he left out who it helps.
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He also put up a chart with expected/projected GDP; it should, on the low end of the projection for 2015, be at 3% right now & high as 5%.
-----------God forgive U.S..------------------