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Latest Weekly Initial Claims Of 281K Better Than Expected, Under 300K For Fifth Straight Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After the abysmal March payrolls number, there were expectations in the whisper forecast of today's initial claims that there would be a sizable jump in initial unemployment claims, one that may break the streak of 4 consecutive prints under 300K. It did not happen, and in fact the number which was released moments ago by the BLS indicated continued strength in the US labor market, where there was 281K initial claims in the past week, just under the 283K expected and higher than the revised 267K from last week. This is the lowest level for this average since June 3, 2000 when it was 281,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 285,500 to 285,250.

The DOL added that "there were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims." 

Continuing claims likewise declined from last month's 2.327MM to 2.304MM, below the 2350K expected.

From the report:

In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 268,000 to 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 282,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.

 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending March 28, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 28 was 2,304,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 9, 2000 when it was 2,263,000. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 2,325,000 to 2,327,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,360,750, a decrease of 27,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2001 when it was 2,360,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 2,387,750 to 2,388,250.

 

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 21 was 2,617,970, a decrease of 141,794 from the previous week. There were 3,163,363 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2014.

Curiously, the state breakdown did not show any sizable jump in the Texas claims for yet another week, which contradicts the Challenger layoffs report according to which Texas is now, based solely on the pace of terminations, in recession.

So will today's good news be bad news for the market, just like Friday's ugly jobs report was initially seen as bad news for the S&P only to lead to the biggest intraday surge of 2015 on Monday? Or will the "market" merely do Bill Dudley's bidding and keep going higher, but not too fast?

 

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Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:41 | 5974740 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Can you say "rate hike"?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:48 | 5974767 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Must be Groundhog Day.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:52 | 5974785 pods
pods's picture

Didn't even move the needle on the Lehmanometer.

sigh

pods

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:22 | 5974846 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

So 1.1 million jobs were lost instead of 1,2 Million over the last FIVE WEEKS. If that trend continues maybe there will be nobody employed by Christmas. (Oh I know...hyperbole. Jobs, of poorer quality, are somehow created too.)

 

Yes we have success!!! The Leisure economy has arrived and Mommy Government can take care of everything. Then Mommy Government can provide all of the jods and the Government employees are actual SERVANTS to the Leisure Class.

 

Quit yer job today and let Mommy Government take care of you. Join the Leisure Class.

 

The question is, "Do you feel lucky? Now go ahead and raise those Interest Rates, Yellen. Make my day.

 

Everything is...uh...awesome. Ot is just so awesome.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:17 | 5975084 CH1
CH1's picture

Who's left to file?

93.2 million don't count at all.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:53 | 5975558 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Once they count you, they never count you again.

Unemployment is over 20%, but we'll never hear it.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:34 | 5975933 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"and in fact the number which was released moments ago by the BLS indicated continued strength in the US labor market"

Good thing they BlS is sooo reliable!  Don't even bother to check anywhere else or look below the hood sheeple (cause everything is awesome!)

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:43 | 5974959 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

"Curiously, the state breakdown did not show any sizable jump in the Texas claims for yet another week, which contradicts the Challenger layoffs report according to which Texas is now, based solely on the pace of terminations, in recession." 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:42 | 5975178 junction
junction's picture

Why is Nancy Pelosi keeping such a low profile?  Botox overdose?  Her husband is dumping her for a 20-something?  Most likely, she is planning her exit strategy, waiting for the right time to announce she is quitting, to join the unemployed ranks for the nanoseconds between when she is no longer minority leader and hops on the boards of several corporations.  I can't wait for her book on the 2012 elections, where, with that scurvy Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, she destroyed the Democratic Party.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:06 | 5975258 chilli sauce
chilli sauce's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:01 | 5975418 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

So the depression, er, recession is over?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:42 | 5974749 This is it
This is it's picture

Bullish!

Bullshit!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 15:23 | 5976125 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Oh, this may have been one of those surveys...:)  But both comments work for different reasons - sarcasm and truth.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:42 | 5974751 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Show me the initial claims of "not in labor force".  That's more relevant than all this sleight of hand.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:43 | 5974752 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go higher stawks, but mind you, not 'too much'.....Fed wants this shit Goldiloxed.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:14 | 5974850 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

I distinctly remember articles and scholarly papers in the wake of 2007 discussing how "the great moderation" was a myth.  Here's one from NYT.  A paper from UC Santa Cruz opines, "While cost shocks, such as the large rise in commodity prices that occurred in 2007 and early 2008, force central banks to make difficult short-run trade-offs, the ability to deal with demand shocks and financial crises can be enhanced by a commitment to an explicit target."  followed by "Joe Stiglitz, for example, has written that ‘Today, inflation targeting is being put to the test - and it will almost certainly fail' (Stiglitz, 2008)." and "The sources of this moderation have not been fully identified"

 

I hope "difficult short-run trade-offs" brought a smile to your face after this many years of ZIRP.  It's difficult to understand why so many rational people have any faith in the Fed when they've all but admitted they have no idea what's going on and are simply dictating their desires from on high.

 

 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:46 | 5974758 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Time for some major layoffs in D.C.  Pissing off Rocky moutain states with abundant natural resources and conservative state constitutions might just make that happen...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:20 | 5975092 CH1
CH1's picture

Time for some major layoffs in D.C...

Love ya, LoP, but I don't think so. They have the power and they aren't gonna give it up. Predators never do.

They don't care if the whole thing crashes: That'll just scare the sheep and give them a chance to start over.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:48 | 5974765 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Any word from the Philly Fed?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:52 | 5974772 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This metric is no longer meaningful.  We are analyzing a tablespoon of water out of a quart.  The jobs being measured are low wage and meaningless.  The pool of jobs being measured is not consistant with the size of the public available to work.  Energy demand has been crashing since 2007 while food stamps demand has been rising.  That is all you need to know.  It doesn;t matter if someone has some piddling job that amounts to busy work.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 08:55 | 5974790 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

How many times have I read here the BLS stats are innacurate as hell.

I think there was an article a week or so ago the government admitted the numbers are not a representation of the true picture.

So why are you guys still referring to this stuff?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:00 | 5974804 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Plenty of adjustments.

Always bullish of course. 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:11 | 5974838 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Best since Lehamn.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:53 | 5975001 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yeah...It could not be better.

 

Wonderful!!!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:11 | 5974839 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Sustainable.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:20 | 5974868 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Awesome.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:13 | 5974848 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

One can understand how people in the USSR got alienated from the "government" and their dark "working tools".

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:16 | 5974859 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

"indicated continued strength in the US labor market"

http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Tracks-Sitcoms-Comedy-Projects/dp/B004MB1...

And now as an added bonus, can also be used when reading any FedGov report.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:31 | 5974906 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Bureau of Lying Shits

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:36 | 5974926 bullchit
bullchit's picture

Fed rate 2% in the morning. 
Lovely, lovely!

 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:45 | 5974973 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Fuck deckchairs. Aggregate income or bust!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:36 | 5975150 Shitgum Suicide
Shitgum Suicide's picture

It's the weather.

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