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Latest Weekly Initial Claims Of 281K Better Than Expected, Under 300K For Fifth Straight Week
After the abysmal March payrolls number, there were expectations in the whisper forecast of today's initial claims that there would be a sizable jump in initial unemployment claims, one that may break the streak of 4 consecutive prints under 300K. It did not happen, and in fact the number which was released moments ago by the BLS indicated continued strength in the US labor market, where there was 281K initial claims in the past week, just under the 283K expected and higher than the revised 267K from last week. This is the lowest level for this average since June 3, 2000 when it was 281,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 285,500 to 285,250.
The DOL added that "there were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims."
Continuing claims likewise declined from last month's 2.327MM to 2.304MM, below the 2350K expected.
From the report:
In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 268,000 to 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 282,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending March 28, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 28 was 2,304,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 9, 2000 when it was 2,263,000. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 2,325,000 to 2,327,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,360,750, a decrease of 27,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2001 when it was 2,360,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 2,387,750 to 2,388,250.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 21 was 2,617,970, a decrease of 141,794 from the previous week. There were 3,163,363 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2014.
Curiously, the state breakdown did not show any sizable jump in the Texas claims for yet another week, which contradicts the Challenger layoffs report according to which Texas is now, based solely on the pace of terminations, in recession.
So will today's good news be bad news for the market, just like Friday's ugly jobs report was initially seen as bad news for the S&P only to lead to the biggest intraday surge of 2015 on Monday? Or will the "market" merely do Bill Dudley's bidding and keep going higher, but not too fast?
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Can you say "rate hike"?
Must be Groundhog Day.
Didn't even move the needle on the Lehmanometer.
sigh
pods
So 1.1 million jobs were lost instead of 1,2 Million over the last FIVE WEEKS. If that trend continues maybe there will be nobody employed by Christmas. (Oh I know...hyperbole. Jobs, of poorer quality, are somehow created too.)
Yes we have success!!! The Leisure economy has arrived and Mommy Government can take care of everything. Then Mommy Government can provide all of the jods and the Government employees are actual SERVANTS to the Leisure Class.
Quit yer job today and let Mommy Government take care of you. Join the Leisure Class.
The question is, "Do you feel lucky? Now go ahead and raise those Interest Rates, Yellen. Make my day.
Everything is...uh...awesome. Ot is just so awesome.
Who's left to file?
93.2 million don't count at all.
Once they count you, they never count you again.
Unemployment is over 20%, but we'll never hear it.
"and in fact the number which was released moments ago by the BLS indicated continued strength in the US labor market"
Good thing they BlS is sooo reliable! Don't even bother to check anywhere else or look below the hood sheeple (cause everything is awesome!)
Why is Nancy Pelosi keeping such a low profile? Botox overdose? Her husband is dumping her for a 20-something? Most likely, she is planning her exit strategy, waiting for the right time to announce she is quitting, to join the unemployed ranks for the nanoseconds between when she is no longer minority leader and hops on the boards of several corporations. I can't wait for her book on the 2012 elections, where, with that scurvy Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, she destroyed the Democratic Party.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
So the depression, er, recession is over?
Bullish!
Bullshit!
Oh, this may have been one of those surveys...:) But both comments work for different reasons - sarcasm and truth.
Show me the initial claims of "not in labor force". That's more relevant than all this sleight of hand.
Go higher stawks, but mind you, not 'too much'.....Fed wants this shit Goldiloxed.
I distinctly remember articles and scholarly papers in the wake of 2007 discussing how "the great moderation" was a myth. Here's one from NYT. A paper from UC Santa Cruz opines, "While cost shocks, such as the large rise in commodity prices that occurred in 2007 and early 2008, force central banks to make difficult short-run trade-offs, the ability to deal with demand shocks and financial crises can be enhanced by a commitment to an explicit target." followed by "Joe Stiglitz, for example, has written that ‘Today, inflation targeting is being put to the test - and it will almost certainly fail' (Stiglitz, 2008)." and "The sources of this moderation have not been fully identified"
I hope "difficult short-run trade-offs" brought a smile to your face after this many years of ZIRP. It's difficult to understand why so many rational people have any faith in the Fed when they've all but admitted they have no idea what's going on and are simply dictating their desires from on high.
Time for some major layoffs in D.C. Pissing off Rocky moutain states with abundant natural resources and conservative state constitutions might just make that happen...
Time for some major layoffs in D.C...
Love ya, LoP, but I don't think so. They have the power and they aren't gonna give it up. Predators never do.
They don't care if the whole thing crashes: That'll just scare the sheep and give them a chance to start over.
Any word from the Philly Fed?
This metric is no longer meaningful. We are analyzing a tablespoon of water out of a quart. The jobs being measured are low wage and meaningless. The pool of jobs being measured is not consistant with the size of the public available to work. Energy demand has been crashing since 2007 while food stamps demand has been rising. That is all you need to know. It doesn;t matter if someone has some piddling job that amounts to busy work.
How many times have I read here the BLS stats are innacurate as hell.
I think there was an article a week or so ago the government admitted the numbers are not a representation of the true picture.
So why are you guys still referring to this stuff?
Plenty of adjustments.
Always bullish of course.
Best since Lehamn.
Yeah...It could not be better.
Wonderful!!!
Sustainable.
Awesome.
One can understand how people in the USSR got alienated from the "government" and their dark "working tools".
"indicated continued strength in the US labor market"
http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Tracks-Sitcoms-Comedy-Projects/dp/B004MB1...
And now as an added bonus, can also be used when reading any FedGov report.
Bureau of Lying Shits
Fed rate 2% in the morning.
Lovely, lovely!
Fuck deckchairs. Aggregate income or bust!
It's the weather.