This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Presenting The "Biggest Consensus Trade, Ever"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in September, when we summarized the sentiment behind the "Long-dollar trade in one chart" we used the following representation of the euphoria that had built up behind the greenback.

 

Then, four months later, when updating the biggest consensus trades as we entered 2015, we showed the following image to indicate the current status of the long-USD trade.

 

At this point we have run out of vivid images of trains overflowing with people on them. 

So instead we will leave it up to a less picturesque, but just as accurate, SocGen to show why, once again, Long dollar, is "already the biggest consensus ever."

Hedge fund positions, either long or short, tend to provide valuable insight on financial market trends. We track their behaviour in terms of asset classes, performance and favourite strategies.

 

Long dollar, especially versus the euro. Long dollar / short euro positions have reached unprecedented levels, beating the June 2012 record. There is some reason to feel at least slightly ill at ease by the extreme levels that have now been reached (almost three standard deviations away from historical net positions, see chart below). Given diverging monetary policy across the Atlantic, it seems fair to expect that volatility in the foreign exchange markets will continue (more on this in our latest MAP).

 

Risks to the long dollar consensus. Recall that due to data delays, our positioning data does not yet include the reaction to last week's disappointing job creation data (under 200,000 for the first time in the last 12 months). If the latter is just due to some turbulence in Q1, it  seems fair to expect a strong recovery in Q2 that would force the Fed to tighten by end-summer. While delays are good for Equities and Treasuries, they would be bad for the USD (and vice versa).

Ok, we know that the fast money has never been more long the USD, and when it turns, anyone who shorts at just the right moment will be able to retire shortly thereafter. The 64 thousand dollar question is when?

And while readers contemplate the timing of the turning point, here is a bonus chart from SocGen showing which other assets are massively loved, and unloved, by the hedge fund community.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:52 | 5974994 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

I love those pictures

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:58 | 5975022 OceanX
OceanX's picture

Those train are dangerous!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73asZntiU6A

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:01 | 5975027 new game
new game's picture

rather be on the train than in the markets. at least i might make it on the train...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:12 | 5975062 jaap
jaap's picture

All aboard....!!!!!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:23 | 5975103 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Serious question (well, as serious as one can be about the markets):  Does a negative outlook on the VIX suggest a prediction for an upward move in price?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:25 | 5975110 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Is that the dollar or curry, I smell?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:43 | 5975180 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

"rather be on the train than in the markets"

 

I'd rather be on the tracks than in the market

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:46 | 5975196 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

In the end they'll just gang rape the dollar, set it on fire and hang it from a tree.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:01 | 5975245 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Is that second picture an artists rendition of California in 10 years?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:09 | 5975271 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The second picture is of Jeff Bezo's Hyperloop in twenty years.

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 00:09 | 5977558 Macchendra
Macchendra's picture

Curry-ency crisises give me the "runs"...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:37 | 5975361 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

"Serious question (well, as serious as one can be about the markets):  Does a negative outlook on the VIX suggest a prediction for an upward move in price?"

Yes. The two are negatively correlated. But, it would be more like an upward move in the SPX causes a downward move in the VIX and vice versa.

And, I know the VIX is an index of volatility. But it does move the opposite to the stock market.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:00 | 5975240 ...out of space
...out of space's picture

long usd it is becouse in 2013 a lot of eu countrys borrow in usd at rate 1.30. but all currency fall against usd that is important excaption is russian ruble 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:58 | 5975234 mendigo
mendigo's picture

running....rails....crazy train

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:53 | 5975402 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

"rather be on the train than in the markets. at least i might make it on the train..."

 

 

Yeah, but trains are for insiders.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:20 | 5975857 ajax
ajax's picture

 

 

Give me Night Train anytime. Go long nipple tassles and cocktail napkins...the only way to get through this FX market swinging more dramatically than a strippers' hips:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymd3NKqK4I4

It was good enough for Richard Feynman...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:01 | 5975028 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Someone may have something to say about the dollar hegemony.....that train just might jump the track soon......very soon

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:04 | 5975039 new game
new game's picture

see the smoke coming out that guys ass at the end of the video. fucking crazy shit!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:15 | 5975075 greyghost
greyghost's picture

oh shit, the video ads are back on zero hedgehog! good grief now the web page will slow down to a crawl again. the tylers can't even get more than one ad, have the same video ad at the top of the right side and the same one at the bottom.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:34 | 5975142 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Adfuckingblocker man

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:25 | 5975316 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

On the same note as adblockers. Verizon has a new supper cookie that gets past most cookie blockers. You can opt out and I would suggest you do that. 

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/verizon-lets-customers-opt-out-progr...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:34 | 5975932 ajax
ajax's picture

 

 

Yes please, how many times must you wankers be told: install free adblock/adblock plus.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 17:30 | 5976546 fedupwhiteguy
fedupwhiteguy's picture

wank on this!!! when ur at work and ain't got no admin privileges ur basically focked.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 21:02 | 5977151 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Yes please, how many times must you wankers be told: install free adblock/adblock plus."

Ads might be hidden by adblocker but still run in the background. which doesn't really help.

 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:28 | 5975679 PTR
PTR's picture

You need to watch part 2.  He is able to slide off the train and he is seriously f'd up.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:25 | 5975055 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"dollar hegemony" has regained some 20% of foreign CB reserves...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:01 | 5975419 Leveraged Algorithm
Leveraged Algorithm's picture

Crispy Critter....  Loved it!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 18:36 | 5976730 Tarshatha
Tarshatha's picture

"Those train are dangerous!"

 

I love curry beef and chip.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:59 | 5975024 zerocash
Thu, 04/09/2015 - 23:10 | 5977458 blowing winter
blowing winter's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:55 | 5975004 Madcow
Madcow's picture

But the "concensus" is that the USD is over-bought and will head back down. 

The "majority" does not expect the USD to continue rocketing higher each and every year for the next 3 decades as the world economy collapses and asset and commodity prices collapse by >90%.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:56 | 5975011 gadflew
gadflew's picture

What say ye merry countrymen, shall we BTF-shittiest-earnings-Q-since-2009-already-priced-in-ATH?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:07 | 5975047 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Until the ninth floor of the NY Fed implodes into the vortex of evil that powers it this may be a valid trading strategy. It hurts my permabear soul to say so but today I just put on my first bullish position since about 2010. Short term no-doubt but a sizable rally into the end of the week will make me happy in a sad sort of way. I'll repent on Monday.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:10 | 5975053 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

This market: "Buy when you feel like selling, sell when you feel like buying"

Good Luck

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:15 | 5975073 new game
new game's picture

full fucking bore cog dis in play!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:44 | 5975729 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

No one blames you anymore my man. in the new normal, only bulls actually make money out of anything related to markets.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 21:07 | 5977165 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"No one blames you anymore my man. in the new normal, only bulls actually make money out of anything related to markets."

I think you mean Bulls playing with OPM (Other Peoples Money) and collecting fees investing OPM make money. Everyone else loses money over the long term. Sooner or later the Music will stop and everyone will rush for the exits. Paper profits end up as massive reall losses.

 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:57 | 5975017 Jason T
Jason T's picture

SP 500 in Euro's had gone parobolic.. that trade will shift and we should see brief rally in euro, correction in US stocks.  

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:58 | 5975019 youngman
youngman's picture

That is the Californians going to Nevada to take a shower...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:45 | 5975186 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Classic...

+1

(btw   does coffee hurt laptops?)

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:16 | 5975460 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Desert to desert.  All states should put strict CaliPornia immigration laws into effect now!!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:58 | 5975020 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

It would be a hoot to sit down with a beer and browse through the Tylers "Pictures" folder.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 09:59 | 5975023 actionjacksonbrownie
actionjacksonbrownie's picture

I guess the chart wasn't wide enough for Gold lol

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:03 | 5975033 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

this scogen quote is utter tripe:

If the latter is just due to some turbulence in Q1, it  seems fair to expect a strong recovery in Q2 that would force the Fed to tighten by end-summer. While delays are good for Equities and Treasuries, they would be bad for the USD (and vice versa)...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:04 | 5975038 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Strong dollah is a great setup for QE4 ...no ... QE Infiniteeee !

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:06 | 5975043 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Strong dollar means that dollar is hoarded or Fed is draining dollars in cooperation with bank of japan, saudis, europeans etc.

 

It makes no sense to drain dollars and print dollars at the same time

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:11 | 5975054 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Who has ever accused the Fed of making sense ?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:23 | 5975105 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Desparation is funny like that.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:00 | 5975243 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Buying dollars

Issuing debt

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:02 | 5975252 ekm1
ekm1's picture

if the fed buys the debt, then it creates dollars

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:12 | 5975278 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Ok but doesnt it effectively issue debt via suppresed funds rate?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:44 | 5975376 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Depends on what they're financing it with.

Used to be they had only newly made money to draw on.

Seems to me they have rather huge pools of a lot of other stuff, right now.

I suspect that there is a lot more in that basket than just the "Mortgage Backed Securities" people believe is there.

Exactly where does the "Plunge Protection Team" get their cash??  Where do the "Plunge Protected" securities go to?  Treasury prohibited from holding them by Law.  But selling them resumes the plunge.  Might they go the same place as new treasuries???  And then get sold incrementally over time?

Seems to me there would be a rather huge pile of securities by now with which to fund other things....

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:46 | 5975383 ekm1
ekm1's picture

No.

It is exactly like this:

 

Fed creates dollars by buying UST.

There is no other way for the fed to create dollars

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:08 | 5975439 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

How to they buy other items that show up in their balance sheet?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:18 | 5975474 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

It's paradoxical!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:31 | 5975630 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"Fed creates dollars by buying UST.

There is no other way for the fed to create dollars "

 

1. The FED is merely the clearing house for the Commercial Banking Cartel.  The Commercial Banking Cartel prints money all the time by loaning it into existance against inflated assets.  

What the fuck do you think a $125% LTV mortgage is??!

How about a sub-prime auto loan with the Title and Reg folded in?  Automobilies are depreciating assets even before they leave the manufacturing line...  

ANY & EVERY $ OF DEBT EMISSION THAT IS NOT 100% FULLY COLLATERALIZED AT INCEPTION IS COINTERFEIT.

 

2. So: Trillions of Dollars in Derivatives were ALL purchased with the existing stock of dollars?

That would imply that absolutely ALL of the US$ denominated Derivatives ONLY net out to the existing stock of Treasury Debt and cash in existance?

 

The FED Cartel Banks are running a monumental goddamned debt pyramiding scheme.

 

For those that do not know: The FED buys and sells Derivatives:

 

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2010/05/federal-reserve-has-been-abusing.html

 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20030625meeting.pdf

 

 


Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:13 | 5975823 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

+1 for the DiCarbonnel (sp?) website link. Interesting stuff.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 16:02 | 5976243 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"No.

It is exactly like this:

 

Fed creates dollars by buying UST.

There is no other way for the fed to create dollars "

 

THAT IS A NARRATIVE.

REALITY?  -WHO/WHAT STOPS THEM FROM DOING ANYTHING FOR ANY REASON ANY TIME THEY FEEL LIKE??

Congress?   Laws?   The Pope?   Right and Wrong?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 21:34 | 5975612 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"It makes no sense to drain dollars and print dollars at the same time "

 

Ridiculous.  It makes perfect sense.


1. The FED prints dollars.

2. The FED claims to be injecting said dollars into the system while in fact The FED and it's Cartel Member Banks hoard those dollars, hide those dollars in off-balance sheet entitites, tranfers those dollars to it's Cartel Member Banks in return for soured commercial paper and other bad industrial/commodity debts ( see fracking aka oil patch bust ), profitless NASDAQ stocks, MBS full of NY/NJ mortgages that have not seen a payment since 2008, etc...

3. Ordinary people believe that The FED is injecting liquidity and they buy into the Market in order to attempt to benefit from the The FED's promised asset inflation/debt re-flation strategy.  They think they are riding The FED's coat-tails for a low risk/guaranteed return -when they are actually out there investing blindly in momentum and hot air.  The FED doesn't have Joe & Jane Market-Participants' backs, The FED only has it's Cartel Member Banks' backs..

4. The Market does go up: not because The FED is injecting newly printed dollars; but, because Market Participants are speculating with previously existing dollars which they had been hoarding in an attempt to cash in on the inflation of assets effectively promised by The FED's printing.  

Some even go full retard and pile on the margin leverage...

5. While The FED gives the markets false reassurances and signals it also sets itself up with a fat pile of free/countefeited cash with which to both short the deceived Market speculators and purchase real assets once the market expends itself reacting to the false reassurances of liquidity injections and collapses.  

6. The FED also pays it's Cartel Member Banks a safe 6% compounding interest on $2.5T of 'Excess Reserves' of counterfeited/printed money that only exists on a spread sheet on a laptop in the Eccles Building.  

This is money that can and will be deployed, rules and regulations be damned, when the time comes to buy the bottom.

7. When The FED finally raises interest rates, even the tiniest little bit/ a measly few bps: the Markets will re-price all assets and most of that re-pricing will not be to the upside.   This will cause a stamplede/panic as Particpants run for the exists and try to liquidate before values drop below their entry points wiping out their phantom unrealized gains..

Crashy crashy: and then 'The FED's printed and sequestered funds are deployed to buy assets and securities in order to to support the orderly functioning of Markets and save Capitalism/Pensions/"Our way of life", etc., etc..'.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:05 | 5975041 ekm1
ekm1's picture

And what does it matter?

DXY will still rip higher and higher.

If they all have bet with each other, they can't all win. Somebody has got to lose

 

Traders only bet on DXY, they don't decide DXY.

 

Who cares

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:17 | 5975835 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Jim Willie thinks it will rip higher into irrelevancy thus losing primary reserve status and becoming more of a local (and much diminished) currency.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:12 | 5975063 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

strong and still buys less and less.  Fuck!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:25 | 5975111 Moonrajah
Moonrajah's picture

The dollar is an elderly bully weighed down by his beer-belly from years of reckless lifestyle and desperately trying to hide its flappy muscles in long-sleeves in a room full of anorexic nerds that were beaten up regularly by said bully many years ago, which Pavlov'ed them into blind obedience. But lately a few of the guys in the eastern part of the room decided to create their own club that could gang up on the bully once an opportunity arises.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:21 | 5975095 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Isn't that the same monorail from the famous Simpsons episode?

I nominate Homer Simpson for the next Fed Chairman.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:26 | 5975115 Moonrajah
Moonrajah's picture

Sorry, but he is overqualified for the job.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:29 | 5975120 sidiji
sidiji's picture

taxi guy was telling me to short eur yesterday...i was like wtf.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:31 | 5975130 stranglesnstraddles
stranglesnstraddles's picture

If the large majority of active managers underperformed the market (1.85% to be exact, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f5943664-da1f-11e4-9b1c-00144feab7de.html...) then what possible 'valuable' insights do they provide? As far as I'm concerned I would short the USD. 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:32 | 5975133 vegas
vegas's picture

My first thoughts on seeing the pics were commuter trains leaving downtown Chicago minutes after "Big Fish" Rahm was re-elected mayor of "The City That Used To Work".

 

www.traderzoo.mobi

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:45 | 5975380 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Fiat is fiat is fiat, a new world currency that is still fiat fixes nothing.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:37 | 5975154 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

$ index target 150. Gold $500. Euro $0.70. That was easy.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:41 | 5975174 CaptOveur
CaptOveur's picture

Zerohedge is kinda like Playboy magazine. I mostly read it for the pictures.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:48 | 5975205 Fed-up with bei...
Fed-up with being Sick and Tired's picture

Wanker?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:13 | 5975280 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i read the articles i don't look at the pictures (that guy wmbanzai likes to airbrush everything)

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:53 | 5975219 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

I think it's safe to say the real smart money is long the ruble. Nothing is holding it down but ultimately futile economic sabotage courtesy of Riyadh.

The euro really is cratering, but that's because our masters' black hearts are set on a war with Russia everyone knows the Fourth Reich will lose. The dollar rally you see is Europe's banksters getting clear before the Russian army march back into Ukraine and the Baltics, just as a warm-up, and the order is given to melt down France's nuclear power plants before the Russians reach the Rhine.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:17 | 5975293 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Hmmm...   Perhaps Frau Merkel and her cabinet/business associates will have a moment of foreign policy 'clarity' before then...?    Could happen.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 19:28 | 5976879 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Comrade Erika plans to be on the last plane to Chile. 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:56 | 5975227 The central planners
The central planners's picture

Im on the silver train that its goin the to oppositive direction and its almost empty.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:58 | 5975232 katchum
katchum's picture

Debt ceiling reached in March and no QE4 yet, very good for dollar.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 10:58 | 5975235 4shzl
4shzl's picture

Hedgies hate the 10-yr. note but love the 30-yr. bond??  Hmmm . . . 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:04 | 5975249 sidiji
sidiji's picture

are the indians that dumb?  how hard is it to make and attach some cattle cars?

on the same token, what do the hedgies think will happen when everyone rushes for the exits? Too much money concentrated in too few stupid hands, who think they can move and manipulate markets without consequences.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:14 | 5975282 Herdee
Herdee's picture

It'll happen when the U.S. Banks crush the Euro down to the mid eighties.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:15 | 5975287 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

'Strong dollar' proponents are looking in the wrong places for clues/cues as to the $USD's 'long-term' trajectory upwards.   Forget 'long-term' ~anything~.   No more 'Love-you-long-time'...   When the worm turns, it's going to be a bitch-slap that sends the longs reeling ass-over-tea-kettle, wondering what the hell just happened.   And it won't be temporary.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:15 | 5975288 q99x2
q99x2's picture

What changed in the photos. Nothing. Time reveals that everything stays the same.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:16 | 5975292 Jano
Jano's picture

EU is setup for war by their Washington/Tel Aviv masters.
Why this surprised face?
Everybody will try to move his ass(ets) from the dangerous zone.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:30 | 5975336 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

LONDON HEIST - Huge Haul of Diamonds, Gems, Jewelery & Cash Stolen in Hatton Garden Heist

The Hatton Garden heist, as it will surely come to be known, was every safe deposit box holder's nightmare, every movie director's dream.



Thieves using heavy cutting equipment and rappelling gear broke into the vault of an esteemed 60-year-old safe deposit company in the heart of London over the past holiday weekend, possibly taking advantage of as many as four days to rifle through an uncounted number of safe deposit boxes. And they reportedly got away with hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of gems and cash -- even, in the educated guess of one former police official, as much as 200 million pounds, or $300 million.



Police were offering few details Wednesday of the robbery at Hatton Garden Safe Deposit Ltd. Detectives on the scene were carrying out a "slow and painstaking" forensic examination, police said in a statement.



"Officers anticipate the process to take approximately two days," the statement said. "At this stage it is believed that approximately 60-70 safe deposit boxes were opened during the burglary. Officers are working closely with Hatton Garden Safe Deposit Ltd to establish the identities of those affected. Police will be contacting victims directly as and when they are identified."



"Today, it maintains its international reputation as the centre of London's diamond trade. It is one of the finest and most renowned jewellery locations in the world." "If you can't afford your jewellery insurance you put it in a safety deposit box which is going to cost you between £300 to £400 a year and you know it is the most secure place you can put it as your insurance company would be very happy with you putting it there," he said. In July 1987 the Knightsbridge Safe Deposit Centre suffered what is thought to be one of the largest robberies in history. Two armed robbers asked to rent a safe deposit box and, after being shown into the vault, produced guns and made off with an estimated hoard of £60m. Valerio Viccei was sentenced to 22 years london "hatton garden" safe "safe deposit box" "safe deposit" "safety deposit" cash diamonds heist money insurance investigation 2015 2016 secure security europe stock storage gems "gem stones" jewelry jewellery intelligence cctv "cctv camera" alarm gold silver "gold bullion" "silver coins" "gold coins" england british asset property luxury wealth millionaire billionaire elite news entertainment media "security guard" vault "gold vault" "gold storage" valuables currency business "elite nwo agenda" most expensive diamond rare pint diamond blue diamond yellow diamond auction harrods qatar dubai super rich alex jones infowars rant gerald celente trends in the news bilderberg coast to coast am montagraph rawdogletard industry loose stones gem hunter hunt documentary anonymous jsnip4 demcad prepare bank savings collapse 

According to in-house memos now circulating, the DHS has issued orders to banks across America which announce to them that “under the Patriot Act” the DHS has the absolute right to seize, without any warrant whatsoever, any and all customer bank accounts, to make “periodic and unannounced” visits to any bank to open and inspect the contents of “selected safe deposit boxes.”



Further, the DHS “shall, at the discretion of the agent supervising the search, remove, photograph or seize as evidence” any of the following items “bar gold, gold coins, firearms of any kind unless manufactured prior to 1878, documents such as passports or foreign bank account records, pornography or any material that, in the opinion of the agent, shall be deemed of to be of a contraband nature.”



DHS memos also state that banks are informed that any bank employee, on any level, that releases “improper” “classified DHS Security information” to any member of the public, to include the customers whose boxes have been clandestinely opened and inspected and “any other party, to include members of the media” and further “that the posting of any such information on the internet will be grounds for the immediate termination of the said employee or employees and their prosecution under the Patriot Act.” Safety deposit box holders and depositors are not given advanced notice when failed banks shut their doors.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS5r6fUwLqc

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:30 | 5975342 newsoutlet
newsoutlet's picture

Ha ha ha - putin regime failer :D

New super modern uber tank T-14 Armata that should be most modern tank on world etc. etc. that should frighten NATO :D

Has broken ... twice... during 9. may rehearsal

http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2015/04/03_a_6623693.shtml

putin - you are so pathetic clown :D

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:56 | 5975405 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Transmission trouble?

Usually Russia uses tried and true transmissions.

It means one of several things:

1) Armata is significantly heavier, higher horsepower, or both.

2) There's new transmission for greater fuel economy.

3) There's a new transmission for greater speed (Russian tanks are slow compared to the West's...but much better fuel economy).

4) There's a new transmission to allow greater transmission portability, meaning used in more types of vehicles, and hence easier to maintain and store parts...but may not be suited to a tank's weight.

 

Know what the prime enemy of a heavily armored tank is?  Mobility...poor roads and low capacity bridges.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:09 | 5975673 Element
Element's picture

As I understood it the Russians had already quietly sidelined the Armata in their acquisition plans as they continue to buy earlier upgraded Soviet era designs instead (no doubt for those reasons).

The same thing is also happening with the Russian T50, it also is in the process of being sidelined with a 75% cut in planned initial acquisition, and clearly its much touted early induction and initial operational capability will be out the window too now.

As far as I can see the T50 is not a viable design and will be regarded as an immature prototype, that it always was. It was inevitable that they would have to develop a far more evolved design (even as money is drying up, for both airframe and propulsion). 

Grounded? Russia's answer to US next-gen fighter hits the skids.
 
The Kremlin is cutting its initial production of the Sukhoi T-50 fighter by 75 percent amid cost overruns and rumored technical concerns – the same kind of issues that have plagued US development of the F-35.
 
By Fred Weir, March 27, 2015

The Indians say they want a T-50 derived aircraft and will not accept a single seat heavy multirole fighter, and have told the Russians they want a two man cockpit or forget it.

The other interesting point is the Indian defense budget is already over spent and they do not have a new release of funds allocated, to pay for either a new Russian aircraft (if one were available) nor the 126 new French Rafales which they have been coveting and threatening to buy all last month.

The major problem with the Russian jets has always been their power level is not enough for the fuel and weapons loads Russian manufacturers claimed for the aircraft, which results in high drag sluggish performance and very abbreviated engine hot-section longevity. The Indians, Malaysians and Indonesians have all had this same endless problem with over-hyped Russian engines that can't deliver the thrust needed for the payloads. If you load them up with their full rated payload you have to run the engines too hot to maintain the basic performance levels you need in combat operations.

The result is many rapidly burned-out and failing engine hot sections that are killing maintenance budgets and readiness training and availability. Presumably the Chinese, Vietnamese and Norks are all having the same problem. The Chinese likewise seem to be getting nowhere with improving on the Russian engine designs either.

Su-30 fleet plagued by engine woes, poor serviceability
Rahul Singh, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Mar 17, 2015 20:16 IST

 

So the Russians and Chinese are basically stuck. For now they have poorly performing 4th generation power levels and very dismal TBO intervals (which they never make it to), and numerous engine failures and fires.

Meanwhile Pratt and Whitney has just been asked to develop a significantly higher power 6th-gen engine to go into the F-35, while it continues to upgrade the current F135 engine's power, and improve its cooling. The new engine is proposed to be fitted into the F-35 first, then presumably into the F-22 thereafter. Not that the F-22 needs more power, but the new engine's fuel burn is much better at both very high and very low altitude, which can increase its range whilst reducing engine thermal stress.

Pratt Unveils Sixth-Generation Fighter Engine, F135 Upgrade Options
Multipronged plan links F135 upgrade and sixth-generation engine product strategies
Apr 9, 2015

 

In the past 25 years the Russians have managed to add about 4,000 lbs of thrust with as bad, or even worse reliability level, while adding a TVC nozzle to the same basic engine family. They are getting almost nowhere it seems, while the Canadian/US F135 is making about 10,000 lb more thrust and exceptionally high reliability levels, and several times longer TBO.

So the Russian and Chinese fighters are rather stuck on the propulsion front, and going to remain about as dodgy as an Armata's transmission for at least another decade.

--

Edit: Oh yeah, I almost forgot, the Russians just burned their newest Oscar II sub hull as well.

Fire on Russian Sub Under Repair at Shipyard

 

Agence France-Presse 2:42 p.m. EDT April 7, 2015
 
RUSSIA-NUCLEAR-SUBMARINE-FIRE
 
MOSCOW — Russian emergency crews on Tuesday struggled to extinguish a fire aboard a nuclear submarine undergoing repairs in dry dock as officials insisted the vessel was not carrying any nuclear fuel or weapons.
 
Despite attempts by authorities to downplay the incident reports said Russia's navy chief flew out to the scene and an official said the vessel may need to be submerged in water to put out the blaze.

 

And the programs which the Russians have sunk the most time, money and effort into in the past 5 years has been the Armata tank, the T-50, Oscar II subs and Bulava missile.

A pretty much fubar state of affairs right now.

 

 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:31 | 5975344 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

It doesnt take a genius.

Euro QE and NIRP make holding Euros unattractive.  So holders of cash need somewhere to go that is at least one iota more attrative (and not more than one iota).

The place they go has to be large enough to handle the volume.

It must be widely traded enough to be accessible to individual trading platforms.

 

So, basically, the only place to go is Dollars or Yuan.

And the Dollar is more familiar and more widely traded.

 

It has nothing to do with Dollar absolute quality, only relative to the Euro, and only relative to today...because this can unwind in an instant.

BTW...a sudden unwind of such currency positions is how I see the modern day currency crisis unfolding.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:18 | 5975636 walküre
walküre's picture

Yes, but I think you're looking at this from the wrong perspective

.because this can unwind in an instant.

The Euro will unwind before the Dollar crashes. Eventually there will be New DMs or New Francs to trade and store wealth but in the meantime, that Euro pig has a long ways to go down still.

Fed is raising rates regardless this year.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 14:21 | 5975859 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Shemitah year-ends have never gone out without a bang. I don't think this one will be any different.

September 13, 2015. Since not an exact science, I'd bracket that to between August 2015 and January 2016.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:49 | 5975391 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

See,

The thing is they don't actually have to 'sell' all the open-market-purchased securities.

There are other options.

All things being equal, there is a low deflationary rate simply due to the birth-death-model of economic expansion.  Even people living in hovels, have an additional hovel to add to net worth.

As long as the population of US is expanding, there is a concommitant expansion in the demand for dollars.  Plus, every new innovation, is also highly deflationary.

Savings is deflationary.

Low oil is deflationary.

Etc.

So there are a number of factors affecting the value of the dollar...not just a Euro carry trade...though that too is a big factor.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 11:56 | 5975406 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

http://ultimateclassicrock.com/crosby-stills-nash-marrakesh-express-wood...

Looking at the world
Through the sunset in your eyes
Trying to make the train
Through clear Moroccan skies
Ducks and pigs and chickens call
Animal carpet wall to wall
American ladies five foot tall in blue

 

Sweeping cobwebs from the edges of my mind
Had to get away to see what we could find
Hope the days that lie ahead
Bring us back to where they've led
Listen not to what's been said to you

 

Would you know we're riding
On the Marrakesh Express
Would you know we're riding
On the Marrakesh Express, they're taking me to Marrakesh
All on board the train, all on board the train

 

I've been saving all my money just to take you there
I smell the garden in your hair

 

Take the train from Casablanca going south
Blowing smoke rings from the corners of my my, my, my, my mouth
Colored cottons hang in air
Charming cobras in the square
Striped Djellebas we can wear at home, well let me hear you now
Don't you know we're riding on the Marrakesh Express
Don't you know we're riding on the Marrakesh Express
They're taking me to Marrakesh Express
Don't you know we're riding on the Marrakesh Express
Don't you know we're riding on the Marrakesh Express
They're taking me to Marrakesh
All on board the train
All on board the train, all on board

 

Songwriters
NASH, GRAHAM

Published by
Lyrics © Sony/ATV Music Publishing LLC



Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:09 | 5975441 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Long Disney World!!!!

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:18 | 5975471 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Is that a photo of the monorail at the future Indian Disneyworld?

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 12:49 | 5975547 thecrud
thecrud's picture

You know that crazy guy you avoid in your apartment building. Well every one of those guys posted here.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:07 | 5975602 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture
Russia and Indonesia may switch to settlements in local currencies

Russia has offered Indonesia the opportunity to carry out trade settlements in national currencies, Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said just a couple of days after Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made the same offer to Vietnam.

http://rt.com/business/248325-russia-indonesia-local-currencies/

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:09 | 5975607 walküre
walküre's picture

Greece payment of 457 mio. Euros to IMF is due today. They might get a week to arrange for the transfer. Greek Orthodox Easter weekend is coming up. Four day banking holiday and the perfect opportunity to aim for a default and introduce the New Drachma.

No way Greece can service anymore payments going forward even IF they make this IMF interest payment. Several billions coming due in July and August to ECB and no attempt by either side to negotiate.

I'd be riding that Dollar train too if I wasn't already on it!

 

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:12 | 5975619 wankawanka
wankawanka's picture

Strong dollar, $50 oil and still $2.70 per gallon for gas. What a crock...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:20 | 5975647 walküre
walküre's picture

Do you understand the cost of labor and other business related expenses such as taxes, utilities, franchise fees or leases? Those haven't gone down which is why everything is getting more expensive regardless of POO and USD.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:23 | 5975656 DaveA
DaveA's picture

The reasoning is simple and solid: If at some point in the future, the dollar is worthless, so is every other piece of paper. No currency, bond, stock, or property deed will outlive the dollar. In the post-American world, your only assets will be those you physically possess and are able to defend.

While you might wish to have gold, guns, ammo, food etc. in your personal stash, when investing on behalf of an institution that would cease to exist in a dollarless world (e.g. your city's pension fund), the dollar is the safest store of value.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:31 | 5975689 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

yada, yada,....you totally ignore the Non-standard deviations like Gay (ahem) 'Marriage', nipple rings, and J Lo's open, plunging neck line. 

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/532058143451106999/

Presenting only side makes you look like you have an agenda.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 13:43 | 5975721 rejected
rejected's picture

OFF THIS SUBJECT

at&t paying another breach of privacy fine. Kind of odd ZH or other financial sites are not covering this. A 25 million dollar fine is not peanuts... even today. So how many times does a corporation get to say 'oops' my bad. So sorry.  Pay a fine to a government agency (FCC) whom uses it for....

Oh, well,,,, maybe I just missed it...

 

http://www.cnet.com/news/at-t-to-pay-fcc-25-million-for-customer-data-br...

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 17:01 | 5976441 Herdee
Herdee's picture

CitiFX analysis and prediction on EUR/USD;

http://www.efxnews.com/story/28562/eurusd-gbpusd-resisting-long-term-cha...

Believe me,the NY Banks want to cash in big with lots of leverage in order to crucify these boneheads in the ECB.They smell blood in the water.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 18:47 | 5976762 kieranoc
kieranoc's picture

Love it - no matter what happens, we're in interesting times, particularly against the eur experiment where it's do or die.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!