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Recession 2.0: Abysmal Wholesale Sales Join Factory Orders In Confirming US Economic Contraction
Despite another data series revision by the Department of Commerce, there was no way to put lipstick on the pig of America's wholesale trade data, and as reported moments ago, the all important merchant sales for February dropped for 3rd month in a row in February, the longest stretch since the last recession. After January's downward revised plunge of 3.6% MoM (against -0.5% expectations), which was the biggest single monthly drop since March 2009, the decline continued in February at a -0.2% pace, wiping the floor with expectations of a 0.3% rebound.
Worst of all the annual pace of decline has now stretched over both January and February, confirming that 2015 is now officially a year of contraction for the US economy. As a reminder, every time this series suffers an annual decline, there is a recession.
Worse, not expecting the drop in demand, wholesales built up inventories once more, with wholesale inventories rising by 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, and as a result the Inventory to Sales ratio has hit a new post-Lehman high of 1.29.
The above should not come as a surprise: a parallel and just as important data series, the US factory orders, also confirmed a week ago that the US is now in a recession, when Factory Orders tumbled by 4.3% Y/Y, their worst annual decline since, you got it, Lehman.
Source: Census Bureau
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BULLISH
Unleash the Kraken and turn on the printer before it's too late Mr Yellin!
I know its a recession cause I just had my worst bowel movement since Lehman
Drink plenty of fluids.
This is like watching fruit on the tree rot. Knowing the outcome, but waiting for it to un-rot.
This can't be true since Krugman has ordered the tides to recede and St. Paul is NEVER wrong.....
Ms. Yellen, Zeroes would like you to open the spigots again so they can recoup their precious metal losses (and also so they can continue to criticize you ceaselessly).
Can you accommodate them?
Two well dressed professional looking gentlemen musta got lost and wandered into muh favorite watering hole yesterday
My old buddy bar tender had CNBC on as he wants which prompted these guys to say " What's holding the market down so much?"
I almost said it's because...
But stopped when I realized these two nit wits were hopelessly brainwashed,
I just grinned and ordered another JD on the rocks..
I must be getting old cause I'm finally learning discretion really is the better part of valor.
But don't worry.. It's just a phase for now..
Some get it, some don't.
Just watch the show, it is an interesting study in how we humans are conditioned. Wait till you get to watch the chapter about coping with circumstances!
Bartender, hookers and blow for everyone cause the FED is paying the bill on their credit card....
denial
is more intoxicating than booze....
Just wait! When Goldman releases their revised GDP numbers CNBC viewership will jump to 12
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
thank god this time is different. even my 14 year old babysitter says so.
Aren't you a little old to have a babysitter?
Not if you are a British member of Parliment.
does she have
a 21 yr old sister..
Not that surprising to see the criminals central bankers prepping everyone for the next bailout.
Considering the Fed's balance sheet and ZIRP, I predict a very different outcome this time around.
great point. and since the Fed would have to print moar, the US gov't would need to spend A LOT more so there are moar bonds to buys without completely destroying liquidity. i'm expecting a rebate check later this year. just like we got in 2001 and 2008. add 7 = 2015. from 600 (2001) to 1200 (2008) to 2400 per family???
So many things on a collision course in finance right now. Will the Fed hold all that government paper to term? I don't think so, but who will they sell it to in the face of government liabilities starting to increase again?
The smart, but political impossible, thing to do would be to the re-instate post WWII tax structure. Fuck em. If the 0.1 % bitch, let them move to South America, it will be bullish for the kidnapping rings.
At this point, I see a main street that really doesn't give a flying fuck anymore.
Taxing the richest Americans 90% on anything they make over $400,000 (or whatever the top tier is today -- not that I ever have to worry about that) will not solve anything. That's the equivalent of pissing in the ocean to try and raise sea level. The smart solution would be to reduce government spending by 75% -- but we all know THAT will never happen.
I have no problem with people who have gotten wealthy by providing a real product or service... ...as to those who have simply pushed fucking paper (that was created out of thin fucking air) and used that to BUY congress... ... they should all be executed motherfucker.
Do you, or do you not agree that a massive fraud/theft has occurred? Yes, a balanced fucking buget must be forced on congress, but, that which cannot be sustained, won't be either way.
Full faith and credit motherfucker...
tick tock...
Few people have a problem with the deserving rich, but I don't see how we're going to separate out the wheat from the chaff. Smarter people than your or I have tried and failed.
Connect money to something fucking real... ...it isn't perfect, but when a small group of people can no longer create money without some real fucking collateral it's the best system the world has ever known.
Once again, I agree that this OUGHT to happen. But in a system that everyone agrees is bought-off and corrupt, HOW is this going to happen? Too many people are sleepwalking. They either don't see or don't WANT to see reality. A major crash is NECESSARY to inflict enough pain to make these human flatworms turn away.
It's coming, IMO the supply lines cannot hold for much longer. You don't want to be in a major city when they break.
Same as it ever was...
Too bad they won't televise the unrest. We will probably just see reruns of cheers.
Some people will have front row seats. And the news will spread regardless of TV coverage.
People should think about what sort of radio they want.
It'll be on twitter, vine and facebook.
Then Apple and Company will hit the camera kill swtiches. Why do you think Rahm uses a flip phone? No OS inside.
Mozilla / firefox has an open source phone OS availible from what I understand.
I agree. The rich shouldn't be different, but the reality is, they are. Raise the top rates, they'll just flee (see: France). The only way to keep them would be in a police state so severe, it would destroy the economy.
Given that reality, the only winning move is to not spend so much.
I sell to Russia, China, and Brazil. It really is a global market now. Go ahead, let the motherfucking grifters "flee"...
Where the fuck are they going to go? Mars? fuck em. Look at the number of wealthy in fucking Switzerland and Germany and look at their tax rates. And look the yield on the Swiss 10-year,it just went negative. Yet, none of those wealthy are "fleeing"...
You want to see real capital and talent flee, turn America in Sao Paulo...
tick tock...
The politicians will eventually be faced with a stark choice between highly confiscatory taxation of the top tiers/1%ers or deeply cutting/dismantling the bureaucracy and praetorians and the paying of those left far less AND gutting the social services.
IMHO, we will see the return of the high brackets -and likely of capital controls, too.
I also think that by the time the politicians try to act that it will be too late to salvage the present system.
The thirst of the Tree Of Liberty IS going to quenched. Maybe not today or tomorrow; but, sooner than TPTB think...
pareto rule--might not work here
we can tax the top 1% and barely make a dent in deficits. We woudl need need to tax the 99% heavily, like over 100%, and that still will not make a difference.
at some point people will realize we promise and spend too much. But it will take a catastrophy for people to understand.
Eventually, perhaps soon, the public's view of politicians will coelesce with our view of the rich/elite. History is a fine reminder of that, and how they were dealt with.
I truly believe that is why a lot of politicians have opted out over the past 5 years.
If that happens, I'm opening up a shop to bullet proof/armor-up cars.
For those not aware, it's a common, like shops that install window tint.
Not Real...Why don't you realize that cutting government spending will only hurt people like you? No roads, no transportation, no military, no Social Security or Medicare, no aid to the poor, no education--and no cops to come to your rescue and no firefighters to save your house unless you hand them cash first. You don't-tax-the-rich nuts are clueless.
How did this country survive when there were no taxes levied on it's citizens? Get back to the rest of us when you catch a clue.
True Laws, nobody gives a rats ass about the market except the .01 and Wall Street. Makes me long for the days of " did you see IBM up a 1/4"?
Battle of the Algos and HFT's.
Depression 2.0.
There fixed that for ya Tyler.
I'm just glad that in Depression 2.0 the price of my stawks isn't affected by any of this. Quite an improvement over Depression 1.0
Or, the price of much else, for that matter. Thank god we still have some inflation to keep our spirits up.
Being in a depression is really pretty depressing. Time for Mr. Yellen to conjure up some more joobucks.
pods
Gotta wait another 6 months before they call the recession.
Which is actually just the continuation of the recession / depression after the sugar high of QEternity.
We've had stick saves the last two years, but this time it looks like the puck is across the line. The Fed saves but reality puts in the rebounds.
btfd bitchez
STAGFLATION is coming to your town soon! Then a depression of epic proportions, you will wish you had every penny you ever had!
Get right with God, your maker, and put your faith and trust in our Lord, Jesus Christ, King of Kings, who has nothing but love for you. What a great message that is, can you think of a better one? Repent of sin, and turn your back on it brothers and sisters.
Go with God in your hearts, trust not in this world, ruled by Lucifer, the black prince of death and hate. Trust not in even yourselves, as man is flawed. All things worldly can tarnish, rust and be stolen, life is but fleeting after all.
Can't argue too much with ya' there. Except I would say Stagflation has actually been with us since 2000. But of course....your mileage may vary.....until it doesn't.
+1000.....just because Unix. The OS of champions.
worse, real wages are flat to decreasing. The real cost of living is steadily increasing and at the end of the day there simply is no political, monetary or fiscal solution to maintaining a decent standard of living for 7+ billion people in the face of resource scarcity.
The demographic are what they are, war it shall be, same as it ever was...
Would like to buy some SPX puts,but my face hasn't healed from the last time it was ripped off!
Yeah just got my tax statement from trading TZA last year. Plenty of tax loss carry forward credits.
What is absolutely amazing is the market could care less. GDP could contract by 5.0% and it would go up! As long as companies can buy back stock and boost earnings we are all good!
All THIS, for a mere extra 8 trillion in debt. FORWARD!!
rumor has it
the fed tossed out 27 tril in 2008
at interest rates as low as .01 of 1 %
to any corporation or country
that could fog a mirror..
AAPL about to crash... look out below. Just broke its 50d sma.
Not so fast...about to release the new iToilet.
NSA needs to keep tabs on your ass.
People are wise to the im.watching and it looks to be a flop.
Que up QE4...Increase the pump speed...Bailouts, bail-in's etc... Not a snowballs chance in hell of a rate hike!
Full speed ahead, Banksters Inc. will blow this motherfucker up!
Way beyond FUBAR, and the vast majority are totally clueless!
There was a point where we needed to stop and we have clearly passed it, but let’s keep going and see what happens.
US becoming a basket case and they continue to ramp up the long USD, bizarro world
DXY 1.2 EOY.
Who wants to bet we hit new SPX highs within the next two weeks?
Almost a given... but May is just around the corner.. Sell in May.
Glad I saved some pennies as business is dead this quarter. Worst quarter since 2012 anyways.
polar vortexed again
When the 0.01 % pump in just 5% it buys 10 years of idiot world games just like this.
Whats crackin now is hands on gov and state assets at low interest, buy everything psychical, all homes and land belong to us, then the sheep can be slaughtered for good, through starvation and homelessness.
This should not be surprising. The only way the economy can grow is when working people have more purchasing power. Over 90% of “new” jobs are temp positions- read low pay, few benefits, zero job security. Further, the average college student is graduating with $30K in debt, facing a weak job market. Expect the US economy, along with the EU and Japan to continue stagnating/ declining for the foreseeable future.
Are you kidding, I met with one of the admission counselors of Princeton and she told me that a degree from her school is worth an starting salary of $100K for a grad. You must be smoking something. Or maybe she was? I'm confused....
US has to get involved in a war, what happens, when the recession looms.
Ukraine?
Yemen?
Syria?
Nigeria?
I wonder, where I shall see the next war pretext , another FF.
Go lay down russian dog. See how easy it is to spew like you so often do.
Must be totally wrong data since the initial jobless claims point to a sustained recovery/sarc off.
'Bout time for a FedHead to provide a dovish news blurb?
In Depression 2.0 the Fed tells us that inflation is good, deflation is bad. People looking forward to higher prices while there's global wage arbitration.
starve the beast
stop spending fiat dollars
buying worthless crap
slow the velocity of the dollar
lets show the economic charts
some real pain..
priced 2 new tire yesterday 300 $
said bull sht , found 2 on craigs list
75 $ and 25 $ for rim change
basically kept 200 $ out of the game
wake up consumer,you are the engine
that drives or crashes, this fraudulent system ..
man up with your money..