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VIX Breaks Below Key Level, Dow Up 450 Points From Post-Payrolls Pessimism
Everything is awesome and volatility-less... VIX has broken back below the crucial 13 level (trading 12.94) as US equities v-shaped-recover from opening weakness leaving The Dow up 450 points (topping 18,000) from the post-payrolls pessimism... as we overheard on CNBC this morning, "the worst earnings season in 6 years is a buying opportunity."
It appears 13 is 'cheap' enough to encourage some hedging...
Sending stocks soaring...
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"the worst earnings season in 6 years is a buying opportunity."
Duh, things can only get better!
this is the after WWII market....no significant corrections until 2025....equties are being set up for new highs after killary's official announcement sunday for a major tax week rampfest and voter conditoning.
THere is a pandemic of insanity in the Propaganda Press!
Reality? Never heard of it.....
Co buyback blackout period over in 3 weeks. Then billions of new money will pour in market pushing all indexes up 5-10%. Use any correction to BTFD. Earnings don't matter stupid, its all about trillions of zero interest rate liquidity looking for a home. When nearly all developed countries are moving to negative 5-10 years bonds, equities will be the only place to invest. Get over it. Get in before the next blowout rally.
Soaring
Buy stawks now before it's too late. You don't want to miss the ride down when the whole market vaporizes. It's going to be a blast.
I swear I'll sell and get out a couple days before they shut the doors on the place. I REALLY REALLY think I can time this out perfectly.
I doubt anyone else has the same plan as me.
Good plan. Mind if I borrow it?
Wall Street thinks it can generate a mania and sell their stocks to the dumbass muppets. Problem is, the publc has seen this movie before and is flat busted from last time
you know how you can survive plane crash? step out of the plane just before it hits the ground.
Fufuksayk.
DavidC
Losing my ass on UVXY! Good times....no volatility at all. The world is perfect!!
Everyone gently fall asleep and know that there is nothing at all to worry about about anything....
I've been following UXVY and it has been down for a very long time. I mean how can we bet agaisnt these stocks? I want in UXVY but this is crazy.
Here's a quick warning to everyone that trades these VIX (UVXY) type of funds. You have to put in prices versus ever buying at market price. I purchased some shares through Fidelity when it was $12.99 shown on their live screen. However, the purchase price was near $15.14. Luckily it wasn't a large amount but a good warning to ANYONE that trades the VIX related securities to always put in the price versus just pushing the easy "Market Price" button when buying or selling. There's something dirty going on with this fund but that may explain the entire market?
It's not just UVXY, I have had this happen MANY TIMES with market orders, you press the button at "market" and get Analy-HFT'ed.
At first it was a few cents per trade, and I didn't really notice. Then I hit "MARKET" on a light volume day on a thinly-traded security, and I got HAMMERED for 40 cents a share over "real" market. HFTS see your order, buy the stuff before you can, then bounce fake orders back and forth between each other driving up the price, their running the price up as high as possible in the 2 seconds it takes tp execute the trade, then sell the stock to you at the much higher price. Needless to say I don't make that mistake anymore.
Fucking HFT's got to go. Thisi s so illegal it's not even funny.
Honestly, UVXY is my key for being rich. Everybody knows systemic shocks happen several times in a decade. I just average down (generally hate doing that) but for this UVXY at these price levels, it makes sense. Build a huge position over time and when the shocks happen, you will retire. Admittedly, I just started getting into it about a couple of weeks ago, didn't even realize this ETF until a ZH reader pointed it out.
Look at UVXY performance for the past 5 years
I agree, totally terrible. At these price levels, imo the upside risk is greater than downside risk. Also the distortions of the market of the US and world seem to be very out of whack compared to 5 years ago. Something has to break and yes may not be tomorrow or next 6 months but to me the risk ispretty high that some major event is going to happen within the next 18 months. Since I don't have hedge fund money, I will accumulate positions every dollar it gets lower....the worst it can absolutely go is zero but its a VIX etf so it really can't. That would imply that there will be no volatility between now and 18 months from now. On a side note, I also like YINN, YANG for similar reasons....we all know that China is going to have their 1987 moment, stock bubble moment, etc.
Ahhh not exactly. Once it sinks to a certain point they can do a reverse split, take a bunch of shares off the market and continue to skin your ass day after day. I learnt this lesson the hard way. If you want to make money on this share you need to be patient and get in just before for a substantial downward move. Then sell the spike immediately, flip to SVXY and catch the short side. But beware this is an old play and these things tend to have an expirery date.
Yeah, but here's my concern about any long term position in UVIX or VIXY and it was one of the Direxion 3X funds where they had a Bull and Bear and believe it was their silver metal fund. I got this off a silver investors blog so this is not my information but something to be aware. When they released both the bull and bear fund they were initially priced at $40 each. What the blogger pointed out is despite the dismal performance of silver both the bull and bear portion of this fund was mid-$20 or lower. So how in the world could the 3X Bear Silver fund value fall given the performance of silver in 2012 and 2013?
So be careful with any long term holdings of these funds as their vampire masters will suck them dry no matter what the market does. I look at these type of investments as shorter term such as <6 months but given my profitable stock trading history you might be better off getting advice from Moe, Larry and Curly.
Exactly, all of the 3x's are great day trades or swing trades at best, not something to buy and hold. You can get "trapped" in a 2x or 3x position fairly easily on a big unexpected market move. If you get trapped you have to eat the trade, cause if you let it ride you just get slowly bled-out.
I don't think the "market" will be allowed to drop. EVER.
Exactly, that's why it's no longer a market. When they are ready they will just close the casino. Bye, bye. Thanks for playing.
Seems like that want the idiot retail investor to pile in like they are in China. Problem is here in the USSA, retail has NO MONEY to throw at the market.
Youre right. the market wont drop...ever..for the retail sheeps, the markets will just be halted indefinitely and your unrealized gains will be stuck in your account forever because you will never get to hit the sell button....once that SHTF moment pops up all of a sudden.
"up, up, and away......."
look at the Dow go...
go, little Dow....
go!
fucking bullshit.
The VIX has been transformed by the central banks via open market operations from an indicator to a psyche compliance tool.
No shit sherlock, the Fed has already kicked the employment can over to their political puppets in D.C.
tick tock motherfuckers....
when i saw the GE news i knew stocks would be up today ... no matter what else news came out
Dow 18000: Check.
S&P 2100 and NASDAQ 5000: Check back at 4 p.m.
between central banks drawing straws to announce "easing" ... and big corps drawing straws to announce buybacks ...
I've been short VXX and UVXY this week via options. Sold UVXY puts too early this morning. If you look at a chart of the VIX, and also of the S&P, within the next few days, you may get a good spot to start to buy VXX, UVXY or preferably the calls on those. Another 15 points on the S&P and you've got a triple top and simultaneuosly 12 would be a triple bottom in the VIX. Next week, the front month VIX futures expire, but there is still a $3 gap between the spot VIX and the May future, which could have a negative impact on the daily roll of those ETN's. Next week earnings start with a strong dollar having a negative affect, plus a low volume melt up equals caution on the long side of this market. We'll see...
Hi kaa1016,
Were the one who posted about two weeksago that the VXX should drop to about the $20.00 area mid to late April? Whoever it was caught my attention with their offered insight. If it wasn't you, thanks for this info anyway
Scuttlebutt
Scuttlebutt, it was me. Right after I posted that, VXX went up about a dollar, but now it's coming back down. I've lost so much money buying VXX over the years that I try to only trade it from the short side via puts. Whenever you buy any ETF that's based off of a futures contract, due to the normal contango in the front of the futures curve, on a longer term basis, these ETF'S will track towards zero. Look at the price of the VIX futures in the link that I gave you. It's very steep, which implies a sell off in the market is near or those VIX futures are overpriced. If the market does not sell off within the next few weeks, VXX will break $20 and UVXY will be under $10. I think the market may be getting close to a near term top, so I don't think there's too much risk buying VXX on the long side.
The Fed is watching the stock market more than any other asset.
To them higher stocks means success, even if the rest of the economy goes to hell.
Wait until they announce QE4. Then you'll see a real moonshot.
The Fed is playing a dangerous game. Underneath it all, there is no liquidity in the markets anymore. When you see currencies like the EUR or US treasuries or the largest market cap stock in the world AAPL, at times, trading like illiquid penny stocks, there's a serious problem and we have to be very careful and mindful that a day like what we saw with the "Flash Crash" could happen at any moment.
Some will be old enough to remember Felix the Cat, whenever he was in trouble, always reached for his magic bag of VIX
Kinda like this "market"/ " economy ". You'll laugh so hard your sides will ache your heart will go pitter pat."
How is 450 pts not volatility? Oh ya we are playing into the institutional parameters. Good idea.