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What If The Sun Does Not Come Out Tomorrow?
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com,
Growing up I was an avid athlete. I played every sport known to man and so I understand the concept of positive thinking, encouragement and the never say die attitude that is necessary for champions. It’s why we have cheerleaders. But I also know that when the game is clearly lost the prudent coaching move is to pull your star players off the field so they are healthy for next week. And for years now we’ve been listening to market cheerleaders like Steve Liesman, Tom Lee and Brian Belski give us their rendition of Little Orphan Annie’s “Tomorrow, tomorrow, the sun will come out tomorrow” but at a certain point the financial engineering runs out of time.
You see financial engineering can be a smart maneuver to stave of losses for short periods while the economic landscape corrects. However, what we saw in ’08 was three years of financial engineering that began in ’05 run out of time because the economy never corrected. Earnings growth through contraction is simply not sustainable. Looking to the economic data over the past year we’ve seen a fairly steady deterioration that has become very apparent over the past 3 months. It doesn’t matter if you look at the consumer, the producer, the worker or the borrower, they are all getting sicker.
Now most of you younger fellas may not have heard of the word ‘sales’ but back in the day markets would look to sales to determine how a company was doing operationally. The reason is because of the difficulty to engineer or fudge sales. It’s not impossible but it is much more limited and complex than to do so with earnings. And so the top line was a great litmus test. Now they no longer say this word on the street because it conflicts with the cheerleading. That is, revenues are actually lower today than they were in ’08. Six years of 0% interest and $13T printed and nothing to show but very wealthy having reached the very very wealthy level.
Now one of the things that has always interested me about finance is how well financial algorithms mesh with physics algorithms. And so the laws of physics seem to transfer well to the world of finance. One of the laws of physics is the point of no return. This is a point beyond which one’s course will continue because turning back is physically impossible. Think about a plane on a runway. Pilots must be aware of the point of no return during take off. Meaning the point at which the pilot upon take off can no longer stop the plane and remain on the runway. Once you’re past that point physical laws determine one’s course. And just like a plane, when economic policy has been speeding down the runway it does us no good to recognize we have no wings once we are past that point of no return. At that point a crash is imminent and all we can do is prepare to best withstand the inevitable chaos.
I am suggesting that we are in a wingless plane and we have now passed that point of no return. I have been very vocal about the idea that our economic fate was set upon implementing the trickle down strategy of inflating stock prices to boost our economy. It was clear to me such a strategy actually necessitated a contracting economy. And the past 3 months of collapsing economic data is telling me the end is not only inevitable but near. I want to play a little game. I’m going to show you a chart and I want you to predict the forward direction of the line.
Right so you get the point, the continuous onslaught of horrible macro indicators that have been swarming us for the past three months are not just transitional transgressions as the cheerleaders would have us believe. They are in fact telling us exactly what this chart is also screaming in our face; SIATHTF. I don’t know if I can make this any more simple or apparent.
Over the past 30 years, anytime we have had a negative inflection in the path of capital goods new orders (ex def/ac) our economy has moved into recession and our equity markets have gotten slaughtered. Well we’ve had three quarters of declining new capital goods orders since they peaked in March 2014. And as such, we can be quite certain we are moving into recession and we can expect our equity markets to get slaughtered. Those who believe the current significant deterioration in essentially every macro indictor since the beginning of the year is just a dip to be bought, are just plain fools. Like a roller coaster we are over the hump and starting to pick up downhill speed. Best hang on and get ready for the screams. We just climbed the world’s tallest coaster and this is going to be one wild ride down.
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We eclipsed some folks
What a terrible run of luck...but it is just luck, everyone knows it, and as such it WILL change. Trust me. So just place another bet...a big one this time because this is YOUR time...you are due, its your turn to win. So place your bets and spin the wheel, a winner born every minute!
Every time I read one of these "about out of time", " this must be the top" posts, the market is up another 75-100 points.
The game can't continue if there is no upward trajectory, but there can be no profit if there is no up an down along the way. They key is that the "market" needs people to make waves while it needs major players to make sure it keeps that overall upward trajectory. There is no "there" there o support stock prices so it boils down to everyone lining up to sell the fake Rolex to the next guy, and if they can't make him believe it is real, then they must convince him that everyone else thinks its real. To this day, there are a lot more fake Rolex's than real ones. Who cares, right?
Sales?
We don't need no stinking sales or earnings.
Ignoring all SIATHTF prognostications. Tedious and redundant. Just tell me when the feces has actually impacted the ventillation system and is spraying radially around the room.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZdp46Jen_w
Fake Rolex's fit right in with mark to make-believe. The Fed claims to be trying to back out of pumping up the market, but the market won't have any of that. Labor numbers were horrible and the market called the Fed's bluff and had a party. The Fed has a delima of their own making. Shocking, right?
just tell me what jamie and larry are cooking up, so we can trade accordingly.
Polar Night. Been there. Barely survived. Damn vampires!
They hate silver so do bankers
Bankers are the vampires of lore.
Both control and feed on society from the shadows. Both operate in the darkness as the light of day kills them. Both are obscenely wealthy. Both are intoxicatingly charming and seductive.
Did I miss anything?
I HATE STEVE LIESMAN !!! ALL HE DOES IS CHEERLEAD FOR THE FED!!
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
It's Friday. Please add more verses below people, mine are marginal and we all could use the laughs...
Just thinkin' about toMOARow
Clears away market down days and the sorrow 'til there's none
When I'm stuck with a Dow that’s down
I just stick up my chin and grin and say, oh
Fed minutes come out toMOARow
So you gotta hang on
'til toMOARow, 2:00pm!
ToMOARow, toMOARow, coordinated global QE toMOARow
It happens most everyday!
When I'm stuck with a Yellen that's grey and lonely
She just sticks up her chin and grins and says
The NIRP may start, toMOARow.
Bet your printed dollar that toMOARow
There’ll be NIRP.
ToMOARow, toMOARow, new stimulus tomorrow
They dream up more every day
Here Comes the Sun ~ Oh Wait!
~ George Harrison [written in Eric Clapton's garden] ~ RIP
what if the sun didnt come out tomorrow?
what if i told you https://vimeo.com/115037178 this was considered "Music"?
That's fucking retarded.
lmfao yes sir, it is.
Even if someone did consider that to be music or even good music, it's glorifying behavior that's illegal, destructive and culturally pernicious. Although I'd call the guy/group a Noise Composer rather than an artist, I have a bigger problem with the morally bankrupt a-holes in Hollyweird and the music business pushing this shit on society
i hear that they teach kids tupac lyrics at liberal arts schools. he is regarded as some sort of poetry god in those circles lmfao.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivNuIyqSrD0
^^^^ hahahahhaha
Yeah, I think they do. One of my neighbor's kids was in some Liberal Arts college (aka Indoctrination Program). She sent her folks a video of a "poetry slam" that a college professor recommended attending and gave extra credit for reviewing ... it was pure crap, and the classes were pure Frankfurt School BS. She wound up switching over to some kinda math/actuarial/accounting major shortly after
good switch. better late than never
Don't you understand that those are special little snowflakes and victims of an evil and uncaring society, just because they are armed and anti-social means nothing, that's merely cause they want to be loved.....
I'd go with "genetic composter".
Why would equity markets get slaughtered? The FED has a big printing press. Bailouts for everyone!!!
"No one could have seen this coming."
"Sell in May and go away."
GLOOM AND DOOM CIRCLEJERK! YEAH!!!
And just like a real extreme ride short people will be banned
Bullshit. There will be no ride down because we no longer have markets. TPTB will simply close the doors when they are ready.
A Russian caused brownout will be blamed.You can't even short the bitch.
nothing a little fudge in the new orders numbers and a little of the Dudley manipulation freakshow and we are good to go.
STFU / BTFD
Well, on a long enough timeline...
The future is so bright I gotta wear shades....
Are you calling Annie a liar? Why you smug son of a.....
" Once you’re past that point physical laws determine one’s course. And just like a plane, when economic policy has been speeding down the runway it does us no good to recognize we have no wings once we are past that point of no return. At that point a crash is imminent and all we can do is prepare to best withstand the inevitable chaos."
Excellent analogy in an overall well-written and to-the-point article.
We Fed some folks (just a few).
Doesnt matter who is cheerleading, if you listened to the Bozo Circus here on Zerohedge you lost a lot of money. It is the best place to find fallacy to trade against.
It only becomes money when you sell.
Still in?
Forever.
Reading Zerohedge keeps me focused on productive assets instead of rigged equity markets based on fiat trash.
sure wish i listened to Liesman.
Meh.
Markets are up and there is NO volatility. Everything is fine!
Wake me up when something ACTUALLY happens....
no kidding
Most days I don't give a fuck if the Sun doesn't come up.
First they came and said that Earnings didn't matter, and you did nothing.
Then they came and said that Sales didn't matter, and you did nothing.
Then they came and sodomized you in the arse. Because Black lives matter.