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Bullard Hints The Fed May Hike Rates Only To Cut Them Right After
If one needs to observe ample confusion by a central planner, one usually needs to look no further than St. Louis Fed's James Bullard, the same "hawk" who has been pressing for aggressive rate hiking throughout the last year except when the market almost entered a correction and he promptly hinted at QE4.
There was more of the same earlier today, when he spoke earlier at the annual Hyman P Minsky Conference, and said “now may be a good time to begin normalising US monetary policy so that it is set appropriately for an improving economy over the next two years. Even with some normalisation, monetary policy will remain exceptionally accommodative.”
Correctly, he further noted that “a risk of remaining at the zero lower bound too long is that a significant asset-market bubble will develop."
He added that the Fed is concocting a "witch’s brew" of factors that could lead to excessive risk taking if it holds interest rates near zero for too long as the jobless rate approaches normal. "My story about bubbles is most of the risk lies ahead of us. That’s a witch’s brew of factors that sounds like a bubble."
Graphic description of the Fed's chemsitry experiment gone bad to paraphrase David Einhorn, what Bullard unfortunately doesn't get is that asset bubble is already here and now and manifests itself in the form of the biggest ever Treasury bond bubble, which is merely the entire market frontrunning the world's central banks monetizing a record amount of debt, and logically, in risk assets as well due to the infamous "There Is No Alternative."
So far so good. It was at this point where Bullard's comments veered off into the bizarre and outright contradictory, because he said that the:
- FED SHOULD NOT SURPRISE MARKETS ON TIGHTENING PACE
... minutes after he said:
- NOW `MAY BE A GOOD TIME' TO BEGIN RAISING RATES
And then added:
- HE'S `DELIBERATELY VAGUE' ABOUT LIFTOFF TIMING
But... he just said....
So which is it? Or do the market expect a rate hike now according to Bullard, and as a result the S&P is back to all time highs?
The answer is simple, and one which Bill Dudley already hinted at last week - the Fed is now market data dependent, and if and when even the smallest selling starts, the Fed crawls back into its shell: "if we did something that surprised one way or another and markets had to reconcile those prices all at once."... “I think that’s an important issue for trust in the market."
We wonder if Bullard realizes the Fed is the market. Probably not.
But the absolute punchline:
- BULLARD: CUT RATES IF ECONOMY SUFFERS SHOCK AFTER FED LIFTOFF
In other words, the only reason the Fed is hiking rates is so it can cut them right after, and if possible launch another full blown QE just to keep markets from being too "surprised"...
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We have to raise rates in order to cut rates.
Morpheus, can you please pick up the white courtesy phone?
pods
These guys are fucked up in the head.
fuck you today, fuck you tomorrow we are the FED
What a crock...Crude oil consumption is a pretty good indicator of global economic activity...and crude definitely doesn't see any "booms" coming...following article lays out the details...
How Peaking Global Crude Oil Production is Being Trumped by Slowing Global Credit Creation, Resulting in an Oil Glut!
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-peaking-global-crude-oil-production.html
They all need to go to clown school
Allow me to translate: WE AT THE FED WILL CONTINUE TO CATER TO EVERY DEMAND OF NOT WHAT IS GOOD FOR THE ACTUAL ECONOMY AND 99.3% OF AMERICANS, BUT FOR FINANCIAL ACTORS & BANKS ON WALL STREET, MOTHERFUCKERS, BECAUSE I AND MY PEERS AT THE FED ARE WALL STREET'S BITCHEZ.
P.S. VOTE FOR FUCKTARD HILLARY OR WHOEVER THE FUCKTARD REPUBLICAN NOMINEE IS IN THE BREAD & CIRCUS 2016 ELECTION BECAUSE IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER (they're puppets of those that we are puppets of; look at their "campaign contributors")
*Shouted intentionally for emphasis and clarity.
These people are retarded.
This tells me they have no fucking clue what to do. Why raise then cut. Just leave it where its at.
Sociopaths that run Ponzi schemes, always grasp at any straws when the whole thing starts to collapse. I'm sure in their own mind, they think they can engineer a "soft landing" with a little "pump & dump". Unfortunately, Ponzi's never end in a soft landing.
They are the certified clown instructors.
All playing out according to script. OF COURSE they have to raise rates now so they can lower them later. Otherwise, how can they justify their own existence to themselves?
Oh the irony that they could control business cycles so well as to destroy the cyclical nature of it that they lose power over the very things they are trying to control.
Considering the amount of oil still being consumed simply to maintain the current status quo and the increasingly difficult extraction methods being used, you might want to rethink that position.
Sure, if people don't mind going back to living in mud huts, your "analysis" is spot on.
If a 0.25% increase in rates is going to kill this already hemorrhaging economy we're screwed. Of course we are screwed either way.
hahaha. truth.
Ah, flacon, you're so right. I don't swear very much but my exasperation with these fuckwits who have no experience of the real world just makes me so angry.
DavidC
looks like Kyle Bass was right. this administration has had a long-held plan to destroy the dollar.
do you know the bass folks came up number 1 in the post 911 contest on wall street, =who played and won the most from 911.
kyle is of course wrong that -the admin - came up with a plan.
The Fed won't ever raise rates and risk popping the stock market bubble they spent 6 years inflating.
All the Fed has left is "talking" about raising rates without ever actually doing it to keep the markets and media guessing.
How John Kerryish
It has taken them this long to do the same as Biden..
'spend money to save from going bankrupt' <=> 'raise rates so they can lower them'
They let Bullard out of the basement again, hilarity ensues... roll closing credits....
BULLARD: CUT RATES IF ECONOMY SUFFERS SHOCK AFTER FED LIFTOFF
What bullshit
Keep the farce going at all cost. BTFD/BTFATH........nothing else matters!
sounds like they are totally farked and preparng for QE4!!!!
QE4 has to come, otherwise where the fark are they going to get $$$ for the redeeming UST?
And lets be clear, the world is in a de-dollarization mode right now. Its only going to increase in intensity.
You can say fuck in fightclub
He can't:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv8tVxk6Nj4
99.99999% chance of QE4.
The Federal Reserve can't stop QE for long.
It's the economy on government spending and life support until the dollar free-falls and there's a currency crisis.
QE4 would be even less effective than QE3. What are they going to buy??? ZERO mortgage origination's. Government spending on anything that can push up inflation is non existent. Even directly buying the stock market is a questionable tactic as the money would only cycle into other bubblicious investments. The FED has been pushing on the string for at least the last year...
As much as people shit on Keynes, what the FED has been doing is nothing close to Keynesian. Stimulating aggregate demand during a recession isn't a bad idea. Things really picked up in 2009/10 during the tax and home buying credit period. But we couldn't have the middle class benefiting so the GOP congress served as useful idiots to bring that to an end with their all to willing Democratic accomplices shouting woe to the middle class. Can you imagine how our economy would be humming if the QE boondoggles had went directly to consumers as tax payer rebates? Think of how low the cost of housing could have been driven down if the banks were forced to process foreclosures under mark to market. There would be people working with rising wages that WOULDN'T have contributed to inflation because we were/are at epic over capacity!
Right and say: "oops, my bad."
Bulltard
Bullturd
If there was any indication of an actual rate hike given by the fed to TPTB that included a general date range, stocks would not be moving higher, they'd be down hundreds.
Orwell's estate should sue for plaigarism.
Dead people suing the living, no doubt a keystone for extending the current criminal economy.
Corporations and dead people are people, too.
They already get to vote.
BullTard and Yellen will be announcing QE4 this year. More than the $85 billion/month.
Print until a currency crisis.
Seriously, what else is there to say at this point? Look at the volume in the market today. These Fed officials and the Fed itself are jokes, yet the average investor is not going to laughing when it's all said and done.
Yeah right. Raise rates my ass. Go ahead, I dare you. You'll blow the whole fucking thing sky high........ retards.
I know, deep down, you know I'm winning on our bet right now. ;)
Trial and error? I though the Fed is steering the US economy.
The Fed will never raise rates. There is simply too much debt out there now.
More jawboning from Bullard, gee what a surprise. "Talking" about raising rates is the only tool the Fed has left.
The more Fed officials cry wolf on raising rates the less and less Wall Street junkies will believe them.
3 card monte...
What a fucking clown circus these jackasses are. Why waste any time with useless comments like that. The un-fed has things so fucked up it really doesn't matter what they do.
It will all come crashing down at some point. The game now is just plain old buying time.
Bulltard may as well just come out and pick his nose, fart and walk off. It would have the same impact!
Oooh if only to beat the epic fail of raising rates in a failing economy as to induce NIRP so the giv can print money to buy gold? Which should at least send indices rallying infinitely.
How dare anyone short this glory hole?
Federal Reserve Bluffing about rates goes on until they reverse the rate rise and it's revealed it's a printing game to monetize debt.
Zimbabwe economics brought to you by the PhDs at the Federal Reserve.
What is an acceptable pullback for the central bankers who control the market? Should the dow be at 18k? Should it be at 15k? Do i hear 12k based upon fundamentals alone with no monetary stimulus? There is simply no way they can allow the market to drop 30 to 50% or more no matter what they do. CB's are too highly invested, privately and publically and as such it is common knowledge they hold the key to the 401ks of millions of registered voters. Furthermore they now run an active $5 trillion account which can be put to work at any given time and for any purpose....or they can simply print as necessary to comply with the unspoken mandate of stock market levitation.
At some point the Fed will have to deal with a US dollar that nobody wants anymore.
When that happens they will try and boost rates to save the dollar and it will be too late.
They'll close the US markets after panicing. Right now they still have influence. It's finite.
I'll take all the dollars anyone wants to give me. I have the feeling I may need something to wipe my ass with.
Utterly insane to listen to this banter on a daily basis to manipulate markets. Just disgraceful! Since last year it has been 1 stooge after another and still the game plays on and the fish bite.
I'm tired of reading/listening to these fucking ass holes! I prefer to see "Another Dead Banker" headline!
We are days or weeks from the pre-planned wipeout.
Turkish banks are getting very anxious about strong USD
SURPRISE!
SURPRISE!
SURPRISE!
--Private Gomer Pyle, US Marine Corps
The Dow is going to the moon. That's what they want, and that's where they are taking it to. After that? Mars, of course.
The FED has no fucking clue.
let's face it ... we are all fucked ...
They're just going to put in the tip to see how it feels, then take it right back out. They promise!
Overnight I heard a talking head threatening to put actual statistics in the inflation calculation..... Ooo rocket science ain't to complicated!
When .25% is liftoff, and would be detrimental to stawks how can anybody including CNBC and any sell side analcyst be taken seriously. It is amazing as many have said for years that these clowns are even listened to anymore.
I don't want a system wide collapse but the more these liar/shills talk the more I know its going to happen. If stocks can't handle a 20% correction than a 80% one is more likely. "The harder they come the harder they fall, one and all."
The Federal Reserve is over-playing their hand, with the constant bluffing.
More trouble than meets the eye.
I bet people get car sick when he drives. I'm feeling sick just listening to him.
"The last time the overall Discontent Index fell below 105 was in May 2008, as the global financial system hurled toward a state of complete disrepair."
https://www.districtsentinel.com/discontent-index-falls-to-low-not-reach...
Complancency is a motherfucker
With ChalkyCare sucking the blood out of every Amerikan, no jobs growth unless you are an illegal immigrant, higher taxes everywhere, and even the Bureau of Lies & Statistics projecting no growth in GDP of significance, there is no way the FED hikes rates anytime soon. Talk, talk, and more talk but you aren't going to see any rate hike "action". Guys like Bullard are using the tried and true tactics of the BOJ in "jawboning" the crap out of rate hikes but never backing it up. The fact is with $18 trillion in debt and growing higher every day, the ponzi game ends with a rate hike cycle and they know it.
www.traderzoo.mobi
Ron Paul: Watch out. Dollar's in a 'huge bubble'
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102586401
So many things to say here. But, it boils down to "these guys have no idea what they are doing or what they have done". You could pull someone off the street and get the same level of talent or insight. These people are fkn children.
I wonder what Bullard talks like when he's sober.
All I can picture is Putin & Xi with a sarcastic grin on their faces as Sun Tzu's formula plays out.
The FED creatures are reincarnations of Stalin's politburo members.
Gotta love that: "we had to destroy the village to save it" mentality. Psycopaths.
All this means is that the real economy is going to keep on getting weaker and anything you buy is going to get more expensive.
Good luck working any job that requires real work and actual sales to pay your salary, they'll all be gone within two years of QE4. Health insurance will double again by 2017 leading to a company paying $50k just to cover an employee. At that point it won't be worth keeping the doors open, it almost isn't right now.
There won't be any real reason for it but products will see a 30% price increase every year in February. It has happened the past two years and there hasn't been any reason. The dollar has strengthened, production costs didn't go up, wholesale prices actually went down but retail prices jumped 30%. The timing was exactly the same as last year. The same shirt was $12.99 last year, now $17.99. Toys that were $6.99 went to $9.99 last year and $12.99 this year.
Working isn't worth it.
I am not sure if they realize it, but the 'trend' away from them has already left the station (AIIB & such) That in and of itself would be enough, but U.S. foreign policy will be the action that finally Skrews the pooch good & proper - for the last time.
It must not be very fun to wake up everyday, SCARED SHIT_LESS.
For some time now, I have been convinced that the Fed is desperate to raise rates solely because it knows that a recession is going to come with or without rates at the zero-bound, and if one occurs without the rate increase coming first, it will make all the Fed apologists look like morons.
Abosolutely correct. This is the Fed trying to protect the dollar.
<--- Fed will introduce QE4 and stocks will keep rising forever.
<--- There is a planned date for the crash in 2015 and CBs will get out hours before.
They telegraph their moves so hard that if this was boxing we'd call them weeble. "We're going to raise rates, so if you don't like it sell hard right before we do and then buy hard when we announce it was a bad idea and walk it back." Obviously this is the plan if they ever did raise rates, but telling everyone...
Bullard is a liar and has no control over rates of any kind. The Fed can buy US bonds at auction according to the coupon rate set by the US gubbamint.
And these rates come from bond rates set by the market, not some gubbamint windbags who tell lies only to have them perpetuated by the MSM.
A rise in rates will rocket the USD even more. Why would the US gubbamint want to pay more for debt? The answer is that they don't.
Fed funds rate follows 3-month T-bill rates set by market - http://bullandbearmash.com/about/us-prime-rate/
This genious just started the dollar collapse. Absolute genius.
The test asked:
Albert and Bernard just became friends with Cheryl, and they want to know when her birthday is. Cheryl gives them a list of 10 possible dates.
May 15, May 16, May 19
June 17, June 18
July 14, July 16
August 14, August 15, August 17
Cheryl then tells Albert and Bernard separately the month and the day of her birthday respectively.
Albert: I don’t know when Cheryl’s birthday is, but I know that Bernard does not know too.
Bernard: At first I don’t know when Cheryl’s birthday is, but I know now.
Albert: Then I also know when Cheryl’s birthday is.
So when is Cheryl’s birthday?
I figed it in about 5min
They are insane. If anything, their ultra easiness has probably held the real economy back in recent years. They have pushed asset prices up so much that there is room for them to come off to more average levels without a disaster outside the 1% who will still have gained enormously from the policies. The unintended consequences will continue to grow if they don't do anything. Pension funding, the banking and insurance business models, senior citizen devastation, asset bubbles...the growting risks are too many to mention, yet they continue pumping over the top like madmen.
I think they aren't smart enough to understand there EXISTS a real economy.
One of many problems with their scientistic (not scientific) approach to economic management is that they come to believe their metrics ARE the economy, rather than IMPERFECT REPRESENTATIONS of the economy.
I think their Rothschild owners understand, and are moving their assets into China and into the IMF.
Raising rates is about saving face.
The fed knows they will have to reverse course and return to QE for cyclical reasons alone.
They are simply too dogmatic, too moribund, to see any other possible solution. So they will give us theater until the big downleg...and then they will give 'the old college try' to make multi-decade-failed-dogma work.
It is the classical ivory tower issue of disconnection with reality.
They really believed Keynes when he said, "In the long run, we're all dead" to mean that the future never arrives, but is always the present. And while true, it belies the fact that the sort of present your recieve depends very much on the proper past behavior...as every farmer, entrepreneur, and non-ivory-tower-intellectual knows.
I don't care what he told the annual Hyman (Pinkus?) Minsky Conference, but I'd be interested in what he says to his insider Bankster Buddies in private.
I'm sure he'll get right on it.
re Bullard - what a cunt.