The Four Chartsmen Of The Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

While broadly-speaking, both 'hard' and 'soft' macro data has disappointed, the scale of those 'missed expectations' is stunning - worst since Lehman. While this is blamed on weather, the fact is that America had 30% less snow this year than last and still, as the following four chartsmen of the recession-pocalypse show, the YoY drops are on a scale not seen outside of a recession...

 

US Macro Data has surprised to the downside on a scale not seen since Lehman...

 

So here are the four charts that can only be ignored by the likes of Liesman, Kudlow, and Cramer...

Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession...

 

And if Retail Sales are weak, then Wholesalers are seeing sales plunge at a pace not seen outside of recession...

 

Which means Factory Orders are collapsing at a pace only seen in recession...

 

And finally - coming full circle - it appears everyone is scrambling for credit to afford to maintain even a semblance of living standards (and lift retail sales) but "rejections" of credit requests have never - ever - been higher...

 

So the credit available to goose retail sales, which will goose wholesale sales which will drive factory orders... is no longer available to every muppet with a 500 FICO (old or new version) Score!!

*  *  *

But apart from that, given that US equities are at record highs, everything must be great in the US economy.

Bonus Chart: Just in case you figured that if domestic credit won't goose the economy, what about the rest of the world... nope!! Export growth is now negative... as seen in the last 2 recessions.

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cossack55's picture

Facts are sooooo boring.  Back to CNBS to hear more lies.

max2205's picture

This administration will never allow the press or anyone admit Barry presided during anytime of downturn.

 

All you will hear is transitory till no one goes to work.

philipat's picture

It's really not rocket science. The US economy is comprised 70%+ consumption so growth needs increased consumption. WIth real net disposable incomes falling and prices of essentials soaring, increased consumption just isn't going to happen.

chilli sauce's picture
chilli sauce (not verified) cossack55 Apr 15, 2015 10:42 PM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Gambit's picture

For Fucks sake Tyler, when the fuck are you going to ban this freaking account!?!?

Hype Alert's picture

Or at least give us an ignore feature.

nuubee's picture

Suits me fine, I'll wait until some boat owners are desperate to sell, but myself a nice world-cruiser, and start refurbishing my retirement vessel.

Truther's picture

Red is not my favorite color. Though I must accept the facts.

venturen's picture

so this is....Good for the market...right?

Salsipuedes's picture

The next four stalactites are gonna be mofos!

Wild Theories's picture

what are those red lipstick marks on the tube?

all these new fangled charts nowadays, why, back in my day when we made charts...

Weaponized Innocense's picture
Weaponized Innocense (not verified) Wild Theories Apr 15, 2015 8:48 PM

In a good economy I usually don't hear crickets to listen to WTF little monopoly man on a chair has to say.... Usually in a good economy u can hardly hear the fed due to the chatter and clinking of glasses as heshe yells they're gonna raise rates.... And like one person says that ain't gonna slow this down in the mumbling crowd ..... And moves on....
And the economy is able to digest the increase in rates like gulp no problem.... But recently w the threat of the strong dollar pre empting an increase the economy kind of rumbled in a shaky way. All this including the bouncy house currencies cause we in a bouncy house going bouncy bounciy off the fx's and wobbling into the upsy downsy days of unsure wide swings.

Weaponized Innocense's picture
Weaponized Innocense (not verified) Weaponized Innocense Apr 15, 2015 8:59 PM

And now the real question is when they raise rates and as of today expect an epic fail of the economy in a recession in ability to take a rate increase at market highs WILL the fed print money to stimulate when decreasing them in planned failed increase ....... Ooooh amd buy gold and attempt to pass it off as a good thang baby! Everybody's doing it and I get to be everyone and play all the parts OINK OINK OINK!!!

adr's picture

Looking at those charts is telling me there was a lot of shit produced over the past six yesrs that was never bought. Cushing isn't the only thing getting full. Orders are probably collapsing because the Marianas trench is probably full.

The 1000 miles of ocean getting warmer is probably due to a few thousand miles a few thousand feet deep of Chinese made crap dumped there since the last recession.

The Baltic Dry has probably collapsed because there isn't anywhere left to store the crap made to pad corporate balance sheets. My god, what would the picture look like if they didn't allow the accounting chamge in the spring of 2009 that allowed inventory to be counted as an asset.

RiderOnTheStorm's picture

I think the Chinese have stuffed all their unboughten excess crap in the unlived in apartments in their brand new uninhabited cites

Bay of Pigs's picture

The only boat keeping this thing afloat is continued QE via Japan, Belgium and whoever else they can fool and/or strongarm with this "recovery" propaganda.

The massive tsunami approaches land...

MATA HAIRY's picture

much as I would love to see a collapse in asset prices akin to what we had in 2008-9, I don't think it is going to happen.

 

First, the 2008 collapse was linked to LABOR.

 

The housing price collapse was caused primarily by increased interest rates.

That caused builders to stop building and other parts of the housing and homebuilding industry collapsed, too.

 

This put a lot of people OUT OF WORK.

 

That was the major factor in the lives of ordinary people. That caused a lot of disruption in the rest of the economy.  Fewer jobs in real estate, construction, mortage underwriting  etc meant less spending by ordinary people.

 

That was the real source of the collapse in asset prices in 2008 and the real cause of the recession.

yes, there were bad effects on the financial industry, the derivatives etc.

 

But this time around, when rates rise--if they ever really do rise at all--the effect on jobs will be much less. And so the effect on consumer spending will be much less.

 

What I think will happen is that the rates will raise maybe a little. The Fed really does not have that much power to change RATES. Liquidity, yes. But the other central banks are pumping up liquidity, so the Fed does not have to do it.

Where this will end I do not know. I see a topping out of the stock market due to extremely high valuations. But no crash. The Fed and other central banks will not let it. Maybe a recession but not a bad one.

 

I think the continued construction of multifamily will finally depress rents and lower end home prices at least somewhat.

Disclaimer--I am in cash and will remain so. I am too old to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. Of course if there is a major correction I will jump in.

 

 

 

 

Bay of Pigs's picture

Are you suggesting the UE numbers are legit and that the job market ever recovered in the first place? And rates haven't risen since 2006, nine years ago.

 

Bay of Pigs's picture

Look at what you wrote. "The housing price collapse was caused primarily by increased interest rates."

Wrong. Your analysis is full of holes. It doesnt even make sense dumbfuck.

 

Bay of Pigs's picture

My point being it wasnt the raising of rates that killed the housing bubble, it was the other causes themselves. Massive fraud in underwriting, lending, titles, relaxed standards on loans, ultra low short term rates, etc...not to mention the corrupt and fraud ridden Wall St banks, rating agencies, Fannie and Freddie and outfits like Countrywide, Wachovia and WaMu, who all pushed it to the fuckan Moon and beyond. Not to mention the quagmire and cesspool of derivatives.

The FED did indeed raise rates but going from a pretty historic low to a more "normal" rate over a few years would have never caused a housing collapse in and of itself. And the fact the FED cuts rates in June 2006 (years before the bottom), and kept cutting them to ZIRP in late 2008 (which is where it has been ever since), tells me is wasnt about rising interest rates at all. Not giving the FED a pass on this, but the real culprit was massive and institutional fraud across the board.

And where was the FBI, SEC, CFTC and the other enforcement agencies during this time? That's a good question too.

Anyway, I didnt understand some of your post. Sorry, no offense.

yrad's picture

Please don't forget the Regulators.

Weaponized Innocense's picture
Weaponized Innocense (not verified) Apr 15, 2015 8:21 PM

Come on Dow 19K
Let's rally like its 2020 at least till oh hummmm never ending till we have to correct on good numbers so we can have no good times at all for schizophrenicly adjusted inverted market cycle now! WUU WHOO can't they be playing all the parts to all stories for measure of the spinning tongue forks,

bullnado's picture

Most bullish news since Lehman

22winmag's picture

The money lenders have spoken.

 

Credit is done for now.

 

Game over.

tarsubil's picture

Merely a flesh wound.

Come back here and take what's comin' to ya! I'll bite your legs off!

https://youtu.be/ikssfUhAlgg

Automatic Choke's picture

 

 

Given:  we all (or at least most of us) accept that the fundamentals suck, have sucked, and are getting suckier.

Given:  we have been staring at these horrid fundamentals for some time now waiting for reality to rear its ugly head.

Thusly:  either "this time it's different" (which we really don't buy) or somebody is propping things up.

So:  the only news that can possibly be of interest to serious investors is when reality will be allowed to reassert.  will it be at a politically expedient time, will it be when the feds run out of ammo, or will it be a black swan that takes down liquidity and confidence faster than the PPT can prop it up?

And:   if so, when?

d edwards's picture

how about 2016 prior to the election? 

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

I'll get real worried when those Hindenburg Oemsn start appearing, especially the clusters. 

CHX's picture

Put more lipstick on this pig.

q99x2's picture

On the brignt side of things, I went to ssa today and they told me how to work and collect FAFSA without losing benefits.