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Jim Rogers On Why You Must Understand China and What After North and South Korea Unite

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China is The Future, Whether We Like it or Not

Geoff: Now Jim, we’ve kind of been seeing how things have been developing in China as far as the Shanghai Gold Exchange. So the question is, do you believe that China will ultimately control the price of gold? If so, when do you estimate this becoming a reality?

Jim Rogers : Well probably, but China will become the largest economy in the world in the foreseeable future. It will become the most important country in the world in the foreseeable future. When that happens, they’re going to control the price of a lot of stuff, directly or indirectly. I don’t see them controlling the price of gold anytime soon, as big as they are and as important as they are, there’s just too much gold around the world for them to control it yet. But my children speak Mandarin. I moved to Asia so that my children would know Asia, and speak perfect Mandarin. China’s the future, whether we like it or not.

SSE Composite Index SHA000001Jim is absolutely right, China is a place we have to understand no matter what if we are investors, traders or just citizens. China is as important as ever for many markets such as Gold, Commodities, Geopolitics => USA-World relations. Especially for traders or investors, China is a great place to study and participate in their markets. Now when the Chinese stock market is skyrocketing and is up more than 100% in a year closing at 4034 last Friday SSE Composite Index (SHA:000001) investors and traders are waking up to the fact that China is trading as a developed country with its own market which doesn’t depend so much on the price action in Europe or the USA. What better than a not so correlated market?

If North and South Korea Unite

Jim Rogers: If North and South Korea unite, Japan will be faced with a huge new competitor, much more powerful a competitor than South Korea is right now. There will be a country of seventy-five to eighty million people right on the Chinese border, with lots of cheap, disciplined labor and natural resources in the north and lots of capital, expertise, and management capabilities in the south. Such a country would run circles around Japan. The cost of doing business in Japan is high and getting higher. Among other things, the Japanese do not have a lot of cheap labor anymore.

Japan is against unification for obvious reasons. I am not sure why America is against it, other than simple inertia. For American bureaucrats, who are intellectually lethargic, characteristically slow to change their thinking, a divided Korea is a way of life. Several thousand US soldiers are stationed in South Korea — it is something of an industry, and an entire bureaucracy subsists on the industry’s continuity.

Where are the investment opportunities in North Korea? one might ask. I invest in markets, and there is no market there, so I would have to find companies, maybe Chinese or other Asian companies, that would benefit from the opening up of North Korea. I do not know of such companies right now. But North Korea is ripe for factories, hotels, restaurants, pretty much anything at this point. North Korea has nothing — no mobile phones, no Internet. Like Myanmar, the country lacks everything from the most basic goods and services to the highest technology. Yes, Myanmar has the Internet, but very little penetration. Yes, both countries have soap, but not nearly enough. Yes, both countries have electricity, but not nearly enough.

Tourism, I believe, presents investment opportunities in North Korea. There are only twenty-five million North Koreans, so there is not going to be a big boom in their traveling the world, but there is probably going to be a big boom in South Koreans visiting North Korea. There will be a staggering business in marriage, because there is a huge shortage of girls in South Korea. South Korean men can look for wives in Los Angeles or Queens, but the main source of Korean brides is going to be North Korea. The north does not suffer from the demographic problem that plagues the South.

I am dying to find a way to invest in both North Korea and Myanmar. The major changes in these two countries are among the most exciting things I see right now, looking to the future.

DMZ North South Korea Unification

So we at Octafinance are wondering, are you ready to go and buy some cheap farmland in The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) just before the unification ?

Yoma strategic holdingsWe at Octafinance have found no good way to invest in Myanmar yet. The only market possibility is probably to “TRADE” Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd (SGX:Z59), a Singapore listed diversified holding company that has all of its business in Myanmar.

By Octafinance.com

 

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Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:18 | 5996201 GRDguy
GRDguy's picture

Back in February of 2008, I posted a commentary titled "There's No Place to Run, Jim Rogers." It's at the top of the home page of http://GreatRedDragon.com    No ads, no tricks, and the 1889 book is available free, having been scanned by the University of California.  Even today, I still stand by what I wrote seven years ago. Nothing's changed, except it has become worse.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:15 | 5996187 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

I believe the notion of a united Korea becoming an immediate economic powerhouse is, in my opinion, a fantasy.  When the two Germanys united it took years for the two to attain a stable economic union, even though they were not so far apart in their living standards as the two Koreas are.  In any case, a Korean union in the foreseeable future is very unlikely.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:05 | 5996143 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

America is as pure as the pledge giver that loves anal because its not cheating. Wake up everyone, everyone is just out to get theirs.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:02 | 5996131 strangeglove
strangeglove's picture

Dude, if I were you...

North Crimea

can't Miss

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:43 | 5996052 oxide
oxide's picture
"China’s the future, whether we like it or not."

 

Spoken as someone that truly does not understand the political culture of corruption in China that will preclude any chance of that country ever realizing its full potential. There is a reason why every wealthy Chinese person does everything they can to get their money out of China and invested almost anywhere else in the world.

 

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:36 | 5996021 CarpetShag
CarpetShag's picture

How's your commodity portfolio doing, Jim? And your farmer friends driving Maseratis?
I moved to Asia so that my dog could learn Mandarin.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:22 | 5995958 Icelandicsaga.....
Icelandicsaga...............................................'s picture

If the Koreas unite.. I will be surprised.. I spend a good bit of time in Vietnam .. southerners hate the northerners .. SSDD .. and northerners look down their noses at those in the south .. in ways its almost like two different countries.. hummmmm. Above all the Vietnamese hate all things Chinese .. from food to clothing to whatever .. Vietnamese are very big on gifts.. they like to get them . .so when you go . its party and gift giving time . if you give them something Chinese . you quickly learn ... you insulted them .. they would prefer anythiig made in the US or Europe than Chinese stuff .. . the best gift is liquor .. expensive vodka or wine . whihc they put on a mantel so people can look at it . very hard working kind people though . have not experienced any anti "American crap . .except some older people who give you the stink eye .. the young do not know . they hear stories but do not connect with the war ..they want to touch or talk to you .. interesting ..  the Vietnamese kicked Chinese ass in 79 . my father in law is one of the old soldiers who did some of the kicking .. one of their biggest concerns is being over run by China .. "Vietnamese are proud . .fierce people in many ways they have more actual freedom to live everday lives than we do.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:39 | 5996278 besnook
besnook's picture

your story reminds me of early 60s japan. everyone in asia is leery of china as much as they have alwaays needed them.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:59 | 5995856 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture
I am dying to find a way to invest in both North Korea and Myanmar. 


Buy a boatload of Swiss Cheese, Dude.  Hell'stheproblem?

  

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:45 | 5995789 topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture
"The World's Fastest-Growing Economies This Year" (27 Feb 2015) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NZjA_w-QCE
Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:43 | 5995783 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Jim Rogers said, "with lots of cheap, disciplined labor" (speaking of the Koreans); this is how these types see actual people $$$$.  He always braggs about his children speaking Chinese in every interview. Why does a great-grand-father have smaller children? $$$$$$$$$

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:39 | 5996032 CarpetShag
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sperm count down to single digits

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:46 | 5995790 maskone909
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billy joel just had a kid too...

 

these super rich folk pay people to raise their kids.  i guess they dont mind playing catch with their kids from a walker

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:14 | 5995926 Crocodile
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smiles and i have a lot of teeth...croc

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:36 | 5995761 Binko
Binko's picture

He taught his kids Mandarin and moved to Asia. Lol, now he's talking up the camp where he already set his loyalty.

Look at the fucked-up mess that our Federal Government creates when it goes into nanny state, command economy mode, like with the disaster that is obamacare. Now, multiply that by 1000 and you have the degree that the Chinese government controls every aspect of Chinese society.

China will crash very very hard when all the inefficiencies come home to roost and the staggeringly huge economic bubbles start to burst.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:31 | 5995738 maskone909
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what happened to russia jimmy?  did yo azz get sankchuned?

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:28 | 5995722 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

If North and South Korea unite = stop reading.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:25 | 5995705 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

N&S Korea will not unify in my lifetime. The kid up North is having too much fun and he ain't going to share it with nobody.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:01 | 5995867 wendigo
wendigo's picture

I wonder how much power and control he really has. But then, you can wonder that about any country's 'leaders'. 

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:09 | 5995623 kchrisc
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The four and foremost things to understand about China are:

1) Huge manufacturing base.
2) Lots of gold, silver, etc., and lots of access to resources overseas.
3) Lots of friends, few enemies.
4) Military that is not in the employ of Zion.

The banksters need to repay us.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:52 | 5995824 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

The four biggest problems with China:

1) 1.38 billion people

2) 1.38 billion people

3) 1.0 billion suppressed people

4)  a corrupt government like the rest of the world

-----------THE BANKSTERS WILL NEVER REPAY---------------

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:22 | 5995956 ShorTed
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...and a demographic pyramid that's turning upside-down.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:46 | 5995794 Binko
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Four other things:

1) Trillions in command-economy maladvestment.

2) Hundreds of millions of illiterate peasants who think they are moving to the cities for the good life.

3) Bigger property and stock bubbles than even we have.

4) Swimming in a sea of pollution that is only going to get worse.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:06 | 5995612 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Come on Tyler's, this is just rah-rah bullshit, and not even particularly good bullshit......

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:28 | 5995723 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

I actually know some Korean Americans and none of them are interested in seeing North and South Korea united.   Trying to get the north going would be a big drain on the south.   They have watched and learned from the example of the reunification of Germany.

China doen't want to see a united Korea either.   A united Korea would be a threat to China.   Korea has long standing claims on much of Manchuria.   Nearly as many Koreans live in Manchuria as live in the Koreas.  A nuclear armed North Korea is a joke, A nuclear armed united Korea would be a threat.

Look for more of the same for the Korean peninsula.   The status quo suits everybody fine.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:51 | 5996317 besnook
besnook's picture

the people of the south do not want to see unification with the north but the people who matter do......and you don't matter. the usa is against it as is japan unless they control the chinese border.

that is the japanese perspective. south korean busniness want a direct route into china. they want reunification, at least economically. opening north korea to infrastructure investment for manufacturing on the chinese border would make korea a very wealthy country. that is what the money is saying.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:51 | 5996080 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Your first paragraph is correct, your second paragraph is not.

A strong Korea is in China's interest, ROK is an important trading partner for PRC.  Unification will never happen so long as US military forces are anywhere on the peninsula.  If/when they leave, permanently, PRC will pull the rug out from under PRNK, and that will be that.  How unification will proceed is anyone's guess, but a unified Korea will be non-nuclear.

China and Korea share a long history together, and China played a pivotal role in forcing the Japanese out of Korea in the pre-modern era (Chang Pal's era).  Your statement about Korean claims on Chinese territory are spurrious and non-sensical, and sound like poorly-crafted western fiction.

I am Taiwanese, but my wife is Korean. 

 

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 16:27 | 5996234 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/china-and-north-korea-tangled-partnership

 

"The North Koreans trace their lineage and in part their national philosophy to the Koguryo Kingdom, which lasted from 37 B.C. to 668 A.D., was centered in what is now North Korea and stretched well into modern-day China's northeast. During the seventh century, one Chinese dynasty wore itself out trying to expand into Koguryo, and that dynasty's successor was successful only after briefly allying with the dominant kingdom in what is now South Korea. The Chinese dynasties' moves against the Koguryo Kingdom reflected their concerns about having a strong power on China's frontier, a concern that continues to this day. China and both Koreas still have brief academic spats over the historical affinity of Koguryo, with China claiming it was a Chinese dynasty, in part to justify Beijing's continued oversight of North Korea but also to challenge any potential reunified Korea's claims to the ethnic Korean population that still resides on the Chinese side of the Yalu River."

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:25 | 5999101 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Stratfor?  Seriously?  You know they've been thoroughly discredited, right?

I think you need to read books, instead.  Or travel more.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:25 | 5995967 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Granted it was a long time ago, but I was stationed in Korea from 2001-2002 and spoke to lots of locals in stores, taxi's, wherever. A large majority of South Koreans do not want to support the N. Koreans in a unification situation. They also told me that the Americans smell like spoiled milk to them since they have very little to no dairy in their diet.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 14:43 | 5995784 Binko
Binko's picture

Agreed. The north will stumble along, joining the modern world one baby step at a time.

The last thing the people of South Korea want is to be responsible for 25 million impoverished, brainwashed North Koreans who have essentially lived their entire lives in a Stalinist time-warp.

Wed, 04/15/2015 - 15:15 | 5995933 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The north would require a coup to get rid of the official cult of personality and the south isn't interested at all in the multi-year, multi-trillion dollar cost of bringing them out of the dark. Germany was tough but the east actually had a basic infrastructure. The only reason the Nork's are still there is as a political tool for China and is limited in use....

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