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For Greece All Bets Are (Literally) Off: Bookie Closes Grexit Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

You know it's over when the bookies are closing their markets. 

From bookmaker William Hill...

*  *  *

No More Bets On Grexit

 

Bookmakers William Hill have closed their markets on whether Greece will leave the Eurozone during 2015 and on which country would be first to leave the Eurozone.

 

'Greece had been heavily backed down ro 1/5 to be the first to quit the Eurozone, and we'd also been shortening the odds for Greece to leave during 2015. They'd come down from 5/1 to 3/1.' said William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe, 'It is now looking increasingly likely that they could begin the process of departing very shortly'

 

'No one is interested in backing Greece to stay in the Eurozone until the end of the year, so we decided to pull the plug on the markets until either the decision to leave is taken, or the crisis point passes and a plan is put in place enabling the country to remain in' added Sharpe.

*  *  * 
As a reminder, Thursday morning, reports indicated that Athens has appealed to the IMF for a reshuffling of its debt repayment schedule so that the government can pay pensions and public sector wages while attempting to negotiate a deal with creditors — Tsipras was rebuffed. 
 
Which reminded us...
 

 

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Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:24 | 5998358 kowalli
kowalli's picture

HOORAY

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:28 | 5998369 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

...supports the Constitution

...supports Herself

Hillary

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:29 | 5998377 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

ALL....BETS....ARE....OFF: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9_tl_b-bFs

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:30 | 5998388 j0nx
j0nx's picture

haha exactly what I was thinking when I saw this thread.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:38 | 5998421 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They shoot horses....just sayin.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:01 | 5998501 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

All time bombs go off, given enough time.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:36 | 5998656 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I still see all of this drama as a Hegelian operation, where the action of a "Grexit" creates the reaction of "we have to save the EU from disintegration contagion."

Then comes the synthesis of EU 2.0, The Grand Unification. This will accomplish tying up all of the loose ends that couldn't be obtained at the ballot boxes over the last 21 years, such as "tighter fiscal integration."

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:55 | 5998727 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

finally , someone who knows what they are talking about and i can trust......

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:14 | 5998789 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Throw those pathetic Greeks out of Europe already.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:56 | 5998728 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

that's that American view that whatever others do, at the end it will always resemble America, because history has only one road, and the US of A are the one furthest on that road

so the EU has to become fiscally and constitutionally like America, and eventually the whole world will become America, or to resemble America

in short, there is no such thing as other ways. there is only America and Not-Yet-America, or Wanna-Be America

thank you, but no, thanks. we prefer to have our treaty-based proto-confederation, thank you very much

and GreXit would be a good example of a sovereign european country exiting one or two of our clubs, and more then a good example of the shallownes of this view

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:29 | 5998861 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So let them fucking exit already!  Enough with all the useless paper-pushing and mental masterbation!

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:12 | 5999027 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

what do you mean with "let them"? who is holding them? it's their sovereign decision to stay or go. But if their government does not lead them out, and the Greek Parliament does not approve it, they will stay. period. Greece is not there so that ZH can write articles about it. It's a real country, with real people

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 14:03 | 5999571 prmths2
prmths2's picture

It is only a sovereign decision if they choose to go, considering that a definition of sovereignty is "freedom from external control."

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 18:43 | 6000669 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yer boozin' Brother-in-law is gonna stay on the couch until you kick his butt out!  The Greeks wanna keep spongin' off the Euro, and no one has the ballz to kick them out!

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 06:08 | 6002181 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

that's not the usual definition of sovereignty. that's an exceptional definition of sovereignty, reserved to exceptional countries

most sovereigns in history were never free from all external influence

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 03:38 | 6007951 prmths2
Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:35 | 5998884 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

This is a very unamerican view that doesn't involve printing presses:  How are y'all going to pay for it?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:56 | 5998932 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Getting filthy rich is the favored way to escape the ravages of capitalism.

How's that for fixed idea.

 Having scruples would be counter-intention.

Much disparate information makes sense when viewed thru that lens.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:07 | 5998497 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Snatch is my favorite film, by a large margin. One of many reasons it's so notable is because every black character actually manages to survive the whole ordeal.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:34 | 5998643 Utah_Get_Me_2
Utah_Get_Me_2's picture

I fuckin' hate pikeys

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:19 | 5998809 msamour
msamour's picture

Snach was good, but I thought Lock, Stock, and two Loaded Barrels was way better. Losck Stock seemed to have more memorable content in it.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:43 | 5998909 BellevueTrader
BellevueTrader's picture

How about Blazing saddles?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:49 | 5998928 Pliskin
Pliskin's picture

"Greece, we don't need no stinkin' Greece."

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:53 | 5998946 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Scruples. We don't need no stinkin' scruples.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:01 | 5998984 Pliskin
Pliskin's picture

Not THAT memorable if you can't remember it's actually called 'Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.'

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 13:07 | 5999285 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

Nah. RocknRolla mate

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:23 | 5998827 Boris D Blade
Boris D Blade's picture

I have an outstanding debt with the house..

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:33 | 5998399 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

That was excellent.  Literally cracking up at work.  

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:41 | 5998431 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Ouch, where are those literal cracks appearing on you?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:45 | 5998445 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Right now in FATCA regulations.  This shit is painfully boring, but understanding how the beast ticks is great for getting out it.  

I have to hand it to American politicians, they always put holes in the laws so they can hide their cash, but then get bent out of shape when the army pissed of funds pay people (like me) to find them and exploit them.  

My boss told me the only person more greedy than a hedge fund manager .5% away from bonus in December is a politician writing tax law.

starve the beast.  But this shit is really boring.   

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:25 | 5998609 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Are they holes in reporting requirements by banks? How does that work, and how would you convince a foreign banker that the loopholes are safe enough for him?

Or are they holes in terms of how value can be held safely abroad with no reporting requirement?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:41 | 5998902 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Yes, my wife's cousin makes $7,000/week from home guiding clients through precisely those treacherous waters.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:29 | 5998371 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Enjoy these days lads.  Once this whole thing starts to unravel, and unravel it will -- things will change for all of us very quickly.  We should enjoy the time we have left under the current system.  

These are truly the "last days" of the "good times" for a while.  I hope we all are around to see them again in a decade or so.  

I am not sure if Greece setting it off will be the trigger, but given the last 1000 years of world history, I'll bet by bottom dollar it'll start in Europe and quickly spread everywhere.   

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:32 | 5998396 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Agreed. Way too many people on ZH think it'll be glorious, and that they'll weather the storm. It won't. It'll be ugly for everyone.

In regards to contagion - this time it'll happen overnight. Gone are the days of a slow, progressive crash. Everyone's connected to everyone else, and there will be very few (if any) safe harbours during the storm.

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:40 | 5998415 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

TBF - they said the same thing before WWI too.  

I would be suprised if the idiots in Brussels and Frankfurt went from singing its a small world after all  to a NEURO/EUR split overnight.  They'll try and save it for a while, but the precedent will have been set, and I imagine those meetings between the Hague & Herr. Weidmann will accelerate in earnest.

Thereafter you'll get PODEMOS in Spain or the Joker in Italy elected, and then you'll see the split over night.  

I am accelerating my stacking at this point. New suit, or another 30 ounces?

 

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:46 | 5998449 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

that "singing is a small world" is multiculturalism. but I maintain there are two forms of it, and you see only the typical American one, and have not understood the European "version" of it

Spain? Italy? nope. IF, then it's France, through Marine Le Pen. And no, France would happily have an EUR and a French Franc side by side, imho

btw, one good suit equals usually one ounce, since Roman times. or are talking about silver, not gold?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:51 | 5998465 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Of course I am talking about Silver.  30 ounces of Gold and I'd be looking for Altbau somewhere in Kreuzberg. 

No, I am directly refrencing the 

"We European people are one people" nonsense the EU and the EMZ is subsequently based upon.  

There is another strain that is less aggressive and stupid, which is "hey lets all get along we have more in common that we have different" which I really like.  If it were adhered to I would be all for it.  Too bad nations that are very similar (take Poland & Russia) are being driving apart to support the first form of "multiculturalism."

Must I remind you --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE6dR7T-zIQ 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:23 | 5998524 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

yes, and you constantly misread the one thing as the other, which is in many ways nonsense

What we have here is the basic courtesy you extend to Allies. Of any kind of Alliance. which is part and parcel of the European Traditiond of Diplomacy and Alliance. in which you do not believe because you are still "in Kansas", and have not "grokked" it. Which, btw, is the reason why America itself is always an uneasy, strange participant to "clubs"

And you have to admit that we europeans are constantly building "clubs" and Alliances. NATO. IMF. EU. UN. It's a hobby and a passion. We build Alliances the way others breathe

Poland and Russia? You might think they are similar. Poland had the Golden Liberty. Russia... had the Tsar, and it was the last country to abolish serfdom

in fact, any serious student of Freedom, any Libertarian, any Anarchist should, imho, study attentively the Polish Golden Liberty, way beyond the wiki article

it is not only because you'd understand better the differences between the Poles and the Russians, but also because it was there that many conceptions started, or re-started

many do write as if they wish to have that Golden Liberty back, here on ZH. A lot of modern thoughts about Liberty come from there

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:20 | 5999070 weburke
weburke's picture

the latest golden liberty govt of poland was executed on land but said to fly off to doom. russia was supposed to help crush the us in the war of 1812 but the tsar sided with america. jacob rothschild was very pissed.  russia giving alaska to america was also hated by the elites. freeing the serfs was part of the tsars efforts to give the american idea a chance to be the future instead of the roman empire conquest effort. Total roman victory at this point. quite masked.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 14:22 | 5999642 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Ghordius,

You are a wonderfully interesting read.

But not particularly knowledgeable.  If I err, and you state some of the things you do for reasons other than ignorance, please forgive me!

Particularly when speaking about the US.   Smidgeon of bias, perhaps?

Ethnically, the Poles, the Russians, and Ukrainians all proceeded from the Kievan Rus.... of course depending on which part of Poland you're speaking of... Which is why Polish is a slavic language, very much resembling the others.

It is the culture that is different... Pick your reasons.  Because of Ruric and the waring Finn and Slav tribes?  Because of the Mongols vice the "Princes of the West"?  Take your pick.  It is all supposition and varies depending on whose school house you attended.

My point is not to offend.  Again, please forgive me if my words are offensive!  My point is that both he and you are right...but in different aspects.  

Again, if you'll forgive, there is a particular European tendency to confuse Nationality and Culture, with Ethnicity.

The problem is that, particularly in Eastern Europe, they really are not the same at all.  Not only has there been a great deal of ethnic mixing, and non-contiguous ethnic settlement in eastern Europe, but there has also been a great deal of arbitrarily designated borders and nations.   To be blunt, they more often corresponded to the familial relations of a particular geographical area's ruler - Hapsburg, perhaps - than corresponded to a well-defined geographical area exclusively settled by a particular European Ethnic sub-grouping.

But the fact is that he was right to note there is a refrain that, "We are more alike than different."  The accuracy of the refrain, of course, depends on the comparator.

 

FYI.  NATO, the IMF, and the UN were not clubs built by Europeans, but by Americans, who had something to gain from them (Military, Economic, and Political - respectively - hegemony).  Certainly Europeans  SUPPORTED them.  But in the Post-war environment did not have the means to form them - PARTICULARLY the military and economic means, and were arguably also politically exhausted in the aftermath of the Second World War.

Granted, you would be right to say they were made by Americans at the behest of certain European Elites - namely by the Rockefellers and their allies, under the influence (perhaps behest) of the Rothschilds.

But that is the point, isn't it?  It is not enough to merely WANT the club.  The creation belongs to those with the means to actually effect it.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 18:49 | 6000696 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It all boils down to this:  Pottsylvania wants to take over the World!

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 06:55 | 6002237 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 "My point is that both he and you are right...but in different aspects." agree... depending from the point of view, which I think is where we differ, Haus and I

+1 " there is a particular European tendency to confuse Nationality and Culture, with Ethnicity." agree in part, though I do not see it as a confusion, I so see it as a willingness to let people be what they want to be. If someone claims to be an ethnic Pole instead of a Pole National, who am I to disagree?

The "European Norm" is to track Nationality, not ethnicity, and to mingle Nationality with Culture, while Culture is often mingled with Language. From our history, it's usually the users of a particular language that use that to build up a Nation, while ethnicity is more of a local, rooted affair

in fact the "American Norm" of tracking ethnicity looks, to our eyes, quite strange.

If an ethnic group in Europe wants to strenghten it's bonds, they usually first cultivate their local language, which then is a cultural effort, which then leads to a Nation

Haus often puts it in the sense that we want to cultivate an "European-ness" that would diminuish the Nations, up to building an "European Identity". That sounds like "becoming American", and it's not the scope at all

If there is an "European-ness", then it's about accepting the Poles being Poles, speaking Polish and having a Polish culture based on their language. But it's up to the Poles to define who is a Pole

So if I meet a French woman, and she is actually of German or Spanish or British roots... I don't go to her and say: well, actually you aren't French. If the French Nation recognizes her as French with a French citizenship, she speaks French, and cultivates French cultural habits... well, then she is French

So we don't confuse, imho, "Nationality and Culture, with Ethnicity". Nationality is a legal or quasi-legal identity, Culture is strongly connected with language and Ethnicity... is only partially relevant, and the least of our worries

Catalans, for example, don't necessarily speak all Catalan, are nevertheless undeniably a Nation, but their current legal nationality is Spanish, while their Culture is tied to the various localities there, which exhibit wide differences and nevertheless there is a Catalan Culture. Ethnically... they don't make a difference

Lombards or Venetians, for example, are quasi-nations, their current legal nationality is Italian, their Culture is undeniably both Lombard or Venetian and part of the Italian, while they speak Italian and often Lombard or Venetian, which is one of the glues of their Culture, with cuisine being an even more important part

or, to put it differently, we put a lot of emphasis on how people behave and speak, and less on their genetic heritage, in our classifications. while not expecting them to behave and speak differently. on the other side, "main nationality" is a legal aspect tied to the nation-states, with decreasing importance because of the EU treaties

note the difference with America, where the implied expectation is that eventually everybody speaks the same language and knows at least how to behave as Americans, while being strongly classified along the genetic heritage

Take me: genetically/ethnically I'm mostly Norman. But I am not from French Normandy, then my family left that region eleven centuries ago. If an American enquires about my heritage, I would have to answer Norman. But I don't speak Norman, I'd have to be from the British Duchy of Normandy to do that. And I am not supporting a Norman Nation, nor grooming a Norman Culture

thanks for the esquisitely courteous reply, btw

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 07:06 | 6002263 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"NATO, the IMF, and the UN were not clubs built by Europeans, but by Americans, who had something to gain from them (Military, Economic, and Political - respectively - hegemony).  Certainly Europeans  SUPPORTED them.  But in the Post-war environment did not have the means to form them - PARTICULARLY the military and economic means, and were arguably also politically exhausted in the aftermath of the Second World War. "

ok, let's start with the UN. The original post-WW1 proposal was American. Then the US dropped out, and the League of Nation was born... without the original proponent. Post-WW2 the UN was set up, with it's HQ in New York. Currently, it's the US that has the least interest in all things related to the UN

NATO is arguably US-centric, US-led and the one club where the US has most influence. But if the US would drop out, I argue it would go on without it

the World Bank / IMF is a mixed affair. as soon that China proposed something similar to the WB, the AIIB, note how european governments flocked to it

sure, we share some "strains of elites". but then, after all, you are our cousins, aren't you? nearly every single person in the US comes from somewhere, and that somewhere was mostly Europe

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 07:16 | 6002282 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

whole world wants to be like america ? maybe brits want that not me .

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:40 | 5998427 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I agree that it would be ugly for everyone, and this is not appreciated enough. (on the other side, Greece? ah, we'll see, but I don't think so in many ways)

but seriously, bookies? I remember when bookies closed their betting books on many other things, including the big bet books on "the breakup of the EUR"

this "taking bookies seriously" thing has imho two elements: the British "betting sport" passion and the way of looking at markets as giant casinos, a hallmark of our times

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:43 | 5998438 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Wait ... you're telling me the markets aren't giant casino's always rigged in the house's favor? 

O_o 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:47 | 5998453 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

interestingly, not yet all of them. but in a way, the more people look at them this way, the more they become so. markets are mostly psychology, besides the rigging

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:22 | 5998594 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Just because they allow some fringe winning does not mean the game is not rigged. Vegas would close in a weekend if they didn't allow some winners out the front door.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:25 | 5998607 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

from your comment I realize I made a mistake: I forgot to put "Financial" in front of "Markets", and I forgot to put further qualifiers for the American Audience. my fault, beg your pardon

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:40 | 5998669 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Just tired of the whole fucking mess. I'm trying to make a living actually attempting to build something and am forced to watch while the world is being burnt down by gamblers in a rigged game that they KNOW is going to destroy everything, simply for profit, all while trying to convince themselves its OK because everyone else is doing it. Just fucking sad.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:09 | 5998769 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

isn't a portion of those gamblers among the people that comment here on ZH? meanwhile, "trying to make a living, regardless" prettily describes the overwhelming majority of humankind throughout the ages

what has really changed? the internets. today, even people in the most provincial of the most forsaken little pockets of humanity on this globe can get all the astounding news in near-real time that previously were reserved for financial and political capitals, for select few

so in a way we are living in a world where the Big Worries are shared to All, as long as they care to read, for example ZH. just saying

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:52 | 5998468 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Although you're right in the sense that they're betting companies and not market predictors, you're right of course.

But keep in mind that these are companies surviving what is essentially a financial industry - without government backing. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet365 - I don't recall them receiving a single penny in 2008.

Investment banks? Not so much...

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:00 | 5998498 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 I remember the old British Merchant Banks in London

Good companies, full of older stakeholders putting all their wealth at risk in their banks, and gently coaching and strictly monitoring the youngsters

then... Maggie's Big Bang. and an invasion from a not-so-foreign land of Corporate Executive Masters Of The Universe

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:50 | 5998462 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Escape Key i'd rather be hung than drown in slow-quick sand.

Broad statement of ' way too many people on Z/H think it'll be glorious . . .' i call BS.

FOOT OFF OF THE NECK SON and the DOGS of WAR to call off their Police State Protectors. So fucking what if my personal consumption is CUT IN HALF. Less Ammo for the FILTHY CABAL.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:30 | 5998384 pods
pods's picture

Greece is Daniel Craig in that swing near the end of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

But nobody is coming for them.

pods

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:58 | 5998735 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Nah, Greece is more like Daniel Craig, naked & tied in that bottomless chair in Casino Royale.

"Got an itch. A bit to the left. There."
"Oooowww!"

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:34 | 5998406 junction
junction's picture

Quoting Bixby Snyder in 1987's RoboCop: "I'd buy that for a dollar!"

Or soon, a drachma.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:42 | 5998435 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

but I wanted to put a grand on the over\under.  can't depend on anyone anymore, not even the mafia.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:06 | 5998521 booboo
booboo's picture

So Denninger was right finally, (after 6 years of bailouts) on his initial call of "GREECE WILL NOT BE BAILED OUT"
Well... Maybe
Now about that THEY WILL NOT MONITIZE THE DEBT AND ANYONE WHO SAYS SO IS BANNED!!!"" Call...yea. Not so much.
But we have some nice parting gift don't we Johnny

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:34 | 5998642 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Bailouts??

That is a term to suggest their debts will be paid. They were NEVER going to be paid. The game is to convince everyone that "some day" in the distant future, that the debt would somehow be reconciled. How about a rollover to a 30 year bond with a negative interest rate that basically allows for it to pay "itself" off? Nobody gives a shit if ANY debt is paid. They only care about if "people" believe it is a viable commercial instrument that can be traded. Who is buying any of this shit with the intentions of allowing it to actually mature? They are lucky to hold this shit for week before finding another muppet they can convince will find profit in a short term ownership. Greek debt needs nothing but a little "confidence" blown into its asshole, so as to make it tradeable. Shit, they have been trading in Greek debt for years yet who has ever thought it would actually mature and pay out? Anyone??

There will be no Grexit. Just another subprime play that will ALWAYS find a buyer. For the EU, EVERYTHING is about the UNION. They were never solvent from the beginning so there is no reason to think Greece's circumstance matter one bit. This is just part of the process to obscure risk and hype political agendas. The Monetary union was never intended to work. It was intended to do exactly what is now happening. Crisis. Tyranny empowered by fear.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:27 | 5999109 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

The best deal is to buy the stinker at deep discount and offload it at par to the ECB.

Banking is a wonderful business in so many ways.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:47 | 5998700 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Denninger is still around?

I got seriously bored of his arrogant and condescending tone years ago.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:25 | 5998360 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Putin wins.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:26 | 5998366 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The possiblity exists that they default and decide to stay, to wreak a bit of havoc on their overlords.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:34 | 5998407 yogibear
yogibear's picture

That would be different.

Kind of like twisting the knife.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:44 | 5998440 HamRove
HamRove's picture

In that case, Russia would use Greece for veto power within the Euro Parliament. Either way Europe is owned. 

But I think the EU's days are numbered. 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:55 | 5998481 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

specifically and for diplomatic reasons, you mean the EU Council, not the EU Parliament

in which case Russia would become a proxy stakeholder of/in the EU, wouldn't it? as the US is, through for example the UK and Poland

why should then that make the EU's day numbered?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:51 | 5998460 Pulq
Pulq's picture

If Greece defaults unilaterally, the ECB will immediately cut all liquidities to Greece, to try to coerce it so it revokes its decision of defaulting. Since the latter won't happen, since Greece does need liquidities to function, and since the ECB will never accept euros printed from autonomous sources, Greece will be forced to emmit a parallel currency, and will probably let the euro die out. So of course there's no official mechanism for countries to exit the Eurozone, but let's be realistic here, if the ECB wants to kick a country, it simply cuts all liquidities and waits. Simple as that.

 

If you're talking about staying in the EU, I don't see why they would leave in the first place.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:09 | 5998531 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

"... never accept euros printed from anonymous sources, ...."

Bits have signatures? 

 

I can understand how banks rule the masses; they are the arbiters for who is and isn't lying about what money they have in our personal accounts, but WHO in fact does that for banks?   To my understanding, it isn't the Fed or BIS or ECB, it is accomplished via regulators monitoring banks.   Humans.   Fallible humans.  Greedy, suborn-able, non-angel type humans.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:24 | 5998606 Pulq
Pulq's picture

You misquoted me, I wrote "... never accept euros printed from autonomous sources, ..."

 

Meaning if Greece decided to print euros by itself, the ECB would never accept the banknotes as legal. And since the confusion would be great between "legal" and "illegal" euro banknotes, people would simply not accept euros from Greek sources at all, undermining the savings in cash that many people sitll hold here. No, it'd be a bad idea for them to print euros, Greeks need to reissue drachmas and use Russian funds to stabilize their currency in the meantime. The country has a very big primary surplus, meaning that with a somewhat stable currency (stabilized by Russian money, which I'm sure they've discussed in Moscow), they'd be able to survive for the 6 months to 1 year needed for the markets to regain confidence. And that'll happen fast, because Greece would be the only country in the world with absolutely 0 debt, and considering the shape of other economies, there's no reason people won't invest.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:31 | 5998634 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The country has a very big primary surplus..." yes. a very important but often disregarded fact. Which is what the european partners are badgering Athens to keep this way, and the current Greek Government hates

nevertheless, having such a surplus allows Greece more leeway, more options, including that of issuing a Drachma

but Varoufakis did talk quite badly of such an option. he said "where is the sense of setting up a currency if we actually would like to devalue it?"

so again, in Greece it's not about "the debt". it's all about the budget, and the surplus vs deficit discussion

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:55 | 5998726 Pulq
Pulq's picture

I think Varoufakis dislikes the idea of the surplus in the perspective of staying in the euro. If Greece exits, then a surplus is more of a weapon of independence than anything else, even though it's greatly damaging to the economy in the current state. 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:22 | 5999066 escapeefromOZ
escapeefromOZ's picture

@DeadFred    Remaining in the EU after a default would not be very smart . 

The country of Greece will be devastated for decades by the Volture Finance companies . This will be the return of feudalism of the worst kind . People jailed because of debt . Families loaded with impossible to reapy debt for generations . The only way out is : outsisde the Eurozone and with a new currency probably tied up to Silver for stability  .

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:27 | 5998370 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

all bets are off

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:42 | 5998675 Tarzan
Tarzan's picture

Now that's how you stick to the narrative, like a good little ZeroHedge reader.

Wouldn't want Tyler's handlers upset and another mass scrubbing of comments.....

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:31 | 5998395 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

luckily for the rest of europe, the ECB has taken the debt from DB and onboarded it so the peasants of all the countries can share in the losses from the greek debt instead of a few tbtfeuro  banks.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:33 | 5998400 Catalonia
Catalonia's picture

It may be tricky to establish wether they are part of the EU or not. Germany may say they "expel" them but other countries may still acknowledge them as EU members. 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:53 | 5998470 tsuki
tsuki's picture

FinMin Schäuble is working on a plan for Greece to remain in the EU after the state bankrupts. 

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/04/16/schaeuble-plan-gri...

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:00 | 5998495 Catalonia
Catalonia's picture

In other words, to overthrow the Greek government and to pay the banks and public services directly from Brussels. 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:31 | 5998636 Grumbleduke
Grumbleduke's picture

the Ukraine model, maybe they skip the snipers?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:34 | 5998408 FoundInTranslation
FoundInTranslation's picture

I love prediction markets. Somehow people make better predictions when their own money is on the line. Who'da thunk?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:38 | 5998409 FoundInTranslation
FoundInTranslation's picture

I love prediction markets. Somehow people make better predictions when their own money is on the line. Who'da thunk?

Edit: Fuck, sorry for the double post.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:38 | 5998422 Agent P
Agent P's picture

"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies."

Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:29 | 5998863 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

A dollar.......one dollar?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:39 | 5998423 unplugged
unplugged's picture

Are you F'g kidding me?  I'll take the NO-GREXIT in 2015 bet for $200 Alex.  How many times can you hear 'the sky is falling' before you ignore it? 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:41 | 5998429 Debugas
Debugas's picture

Q: The possiblity exists that they default and decide to stay

A: they can only do that if they manage to balance their budget because after they default noone will lend them for a while

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:16 | 5998559 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

Alternatively, everyone will "lend" them money by hook or by crook becuause the ECB doesn't want them to start a chain reaction that critically damages the credibility of the EU.

(lend in scarequotes because everyone knows they won't be paying it back)

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:31 | 5998871 sirik
sirik's picture

"A: they can only do that if they manage to balance their budget because after they default noone will lend them for a while"

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/04/16/griechenland-will-neue-raketen-abwehrsysteme-von-russland-kaufen/

Says: Greece wants to buy Russian Rockets.

 

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/04/16/schaeuble-plan-griechenland-soll-auch-nach-staats-bankrott-im-euro-bleiben/

Says: German finance minister: I want Greece to stay in the EU even if they are broke !

In other words.. they are in panic and clueless.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:43 | 5998439 JBilyj
JBilyj's picture

Just get it over with already! 

Here's what will happen, Greece will leave, they will have to tighten their belts under the drachma so bad that they will appealling to every country for aid. If they wisen up, they will learn to live within their means, which means a total restructuring of society in Greece.

Next the ECB's balance statement will blow up forcing the system to implode as PIIS will start to rumble as bonds have already taken off due to Greece leaving. 

This will futher implode the euro and take the dollar down with it at the same time.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:45 | 5998447 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

About fucking time.  If the price of kalamata olives drops, it may just offset the price of everything else going thru the roof.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:14 | 5998552 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

Mmmmm.  I love kalamatas.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:58 | 5998464 sirik
sirik's picture

No  Grexit .

The greek have enough oil and gas reserves to supply Europe for 50% during 30 years.

The greek can pay their bills so why depart ?

With the greek out of EU they will have putin in

So out of EU means out of NATO ? Vlad has no need to support Syria but could build a new Naval Base in Pireaus....

Together with the Chinese ?

With Grexit USA/EU will loose Syria because Putin doesnt need to win.

So Putin has won in the Ukraine, will win in Syria, isnt isolated, has a board seat at SWIFT, partner in Chinese world bank..... while german producers are begging for lifting the 'Sanctions" Germany the only working economy of Europe and slauthered in ww2.

 

 

And the EU will be history.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:57 | 5998485 Blopper
Blopper's picture

I want to bet a house on NO GREXIT ever. Grexit is just a public farce, a drama, to make people fearful.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:21 | 5998587 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Noted.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:23 | 5998604 Hohum
Hohum's picture

If one looks at European stock markets in 2015, it's not working.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:36 | 5998651 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

You got your house deed with you? I'll take the other side of that bet.

 

Make sure you clean up the house before you bring the deed over to sign the bet into contract.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:57 | 5998958 Blopper
Blopper's picture

You have your cash ready?

The ECB, Germany, BIS and the Rothschilds are "behind my back" on this.

I have no worries.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:08 | 5998526 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

No worries here, stocks will be green, Gold will go down .  Another day of deception upon us.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:43 | 5998681 BustainMovealota
BustainMovealota's picture

May be too late for the Sheepele to wake up to that fact,  with their normalcy blinders at full throttle.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:09 | 5998530 Puncher75
Puncher75's picture

Why don't they just not pay, and stay? 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:30 | 5998627 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

You mean repeat what Greece did when it defaulted in 2012 but stayed in the Eurozone?

Can they pull the same trick off in 2015?

And where does that leave the credibility of threats ("we can't pay") and counter threats ("you will pay or else")?

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:37 | 5998659 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

here's an even better suggestion, why don't they just vote themselves out of debt? oh wait

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:11 | 5998540 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

Tis the ripple effect that gets you in the end.

 

Greece defaulting means that the creditor has to try to put the squeeze on something else to make up for that default, and so the ripple effect reverberates.

Faultlines turned in to cracks, and cracks create other faultlines that in turn create other cracks. The end of the road has to come about at some point, if not now then soon.

 

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:15 | 5998557 geekz_rule
geekz_rule's picture

my gawd.. its full of star!

when the fuck will the endless noise around grexit fucking end?

just do it bitchez!!!

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:19 | 5998573 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

Damn, I didn't know they were actually taking bets on it. I would stake a few hundred at 5/1 for sure. I already skinned a yank friend of some of his gold (twice i.e double or quits two years running) with me betting against a grexit.

I looooove free gold. Especially from a yank haha.

Cheers!

P.S Nobody mention ze (112 tons) of gold Greece is sitting on.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:27 | 5998612 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Why is Yank gold not filled with tungsten like yours?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:20 | 5998584 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Mario looks much better with a knit mask over his head.

Christine Legarde would benefit from trimming her hair a bit more.

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:23 | 5998603 vegas
vegas's picture

Just make sure that Soros, Draghi, Buffet, & Citadel get the info first and then they can leave the Eurozone. You know, after they position themsleves for profit. After all, never let a crisis go to waste and for sure profit from it.

 

www.traderzoo.mobi

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:40 | 5998670 BustainMovealota
BustainMovealota's picture

LOL, no suprise.  That would be the reason they are gazillionairs.  They have access to the "right" information that I and other Joe Sixpack fucks don't have.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:46 | 5998690 barry2001
barry2001's picture

If you are interested in drones check out this site http://pickyourdrone.com/

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:27 | 5998855 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Love those movie references and when you talkin Snatch you talkin 'How pigs can devour a human body', https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xUynRdzzsM

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:40 | 5998903 MogulMushrooms
MogulMushrooms's picture

Jimmy The Greek would have never closed shop...

 

www.mogulsandmushrooms.com 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:25 | 5999047 Md4
Md4's picture

Look...

Greece is broke, and can't pay its notes...and may not even be able to pay its people either.

Either Europe shuts Schauble's pie hole about unworkable demands (Greece cannot transform itself into Germany overnight idiot), OR Greece defaults. And forget past defaults; this one is different for several reasons.

First, an exiting EU member would clearly demonstrate that the EU is itself unworkable long term. It is an asinine concept of the first order, and never should've happened. In a valid union of genuine, principled solidarity, such an event wouldn't even be necessary.

Second, Greece will survive at the foot of someone else's table. That someone else will likely be Russia.

The U.S.-led western antagonism against Putin and Russia the last couple of years makes this new "partnership" untenable. The U.S. will likely not allow Russia to establish a major military presence in Greece, so close to the center of Europe. To do so would invigorate NATO (a most unfortunate outcome for that menacing Cold War relic), and ratchet up the possibility for "accidental clashes" between the two by several orders of magnitude.

The U.S. could never hack that, as it also makes the American neocon's hegemonic march to Moscow and Beijing that much more difficult.

It's much easier to piss off the bear in Ukraine.

But so close to the heart of Europe?

Whether or not Greece actually leaves, I can't say.

But...if it does, the world will be getting just that much more dangerous in the not-to-distant future.

If you're a bookie, you can bank on that.

m

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:23 | 5999084 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Grexit will never happen, even if it costs Germany 1 trln Euros. It's a political project and the politicians will tap taxpayers' pockets

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 13:34 | 5999435 CaptainMoonlight
CaptainMoonlight's picture

Honestly, did anyone actually think getting all these countries together and pooling all their money was a good fn idea? 

 

One thing is for certain: people are fn stupid. A fourth grader could have told you this Eurozone plan was a pantload of sh*t.

 

Load your weapons people (at least 3% of you), it's time to take it all back.

 

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 17:02 | 6000301 asdfzxh
asdfzxh's picture

wrr

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