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Housing Starts And Permits Miss Badly As "Warm Weather" Rebound Fails To Materialize

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Overnight, when previewing today's housing starts number, SocGen forecast that "housing starts to rebound; On the data front, housing starts in March should increase by 17% mom, reversing the steep drop in February."

Bank of America added:

We look for housing starts to rebound sharply to 1.035 million in March after the disappointing drop in February. The decline in February was concentrated in the Northeast which witnessed a 57% decline in the month. This seems extreme and likely a function of poor weather conditions, which should support a recovery with the start of spring. Moreover, building permits are running at 1.102 million in February, suggesting starts should rebound to be more in line with the pace of permits. Much of the gain in permits has been in multifamily, which will likely show through in the starts figures in March. However, we also expect an improvement in single family starts, consistent with the strong gain in new home sales in February and low inventory levels.

Oops.

 

Moments ago the Department of Commerce reported March starts and permits data, which after the February collapse was expected by everyone to rebound strongly because, well, it didn't snow as much in March as it did in February. Apparently it did, because not only did Housing Starts miss massively, and just as bad as in February, printing at 926K, on expectations of a 1.040MM rebound from last month's revised 908K, but permits also missed and in fact declined from last month's 1102K to 1039K, which as Joe Lavorgna "explained" last month is confusing:

Worse, while single family starts continue to drag along a level that is largely unchanged since the end of 2012, multi-family starts tumbled to the lowest since September 2013 at 287K, suggesting the rental boom is truly finished.

 

Not surprisingly, the same thing happened with permits which dropped by 5.7% from March, driven by a 16% plunge in multi-family permits to 378K as the rental boom is now slowing down across all stages of production.

And now we await for all those who, until yesterday saw a surge in housing data, to promptly remember what the weather was in March and blame their inability to forecast one month into the future, on that.

Which is ironic because the average March temperature was far higher than normal...

 

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Thu, 04/16/2015 - 08:50 | 5998253 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

How many dead cat bounces has there been since 2010? I've lost count.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 08:53 | 5998259 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Building hundreds of new FEMA "Freedom Camps" will solve this problem.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 08:58 | 5998269 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Headbanger, since you recently often talk about FEMA "Freedom Camps": what's the limit? I mean, how many people could be incarcerated?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 08:59 | 5998272 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Welcome to Walmart...we're having some plumbing problems.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:00 | 5998496 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

the capacity of the fema camps or the cemetaries???

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:40 | 5998901 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

how about a category of settled homes with conventional financing  (under conv. qualifying measures, ratios, etc.) for 15 and 30 yrs, yoy and mom....not cash, not 1% down with a ltv of 130%, not 20% down with a 15% heloc to cover the down to avoid the pos, oh i mean pmi, etc. etc....no fucking seasonal adjs.,...or ask that bookie dude...

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:01 | 5998281 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Depends on the percentage of american sheep. Most will go willingly.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:02 | 5998285 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

How many prisoners er, campers can they fit standing in one of Warren Buffett's freight cars?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:23 | 5998351 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

What a scary thought! Carrying us away in Buffet's trains to FEMA camps.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:46 | 5998436 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Uncle Warren's Freedom Trains!!

Yeah!  That's the ticket!

And the term will be "Members". That is until they are DIS-member(ed)s

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 11:57 | 5998959 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Sad reality is that situation will need to be that bad, (shipped off in Warren's trains) before the Sheeple awake, hoping so at least.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:53 | 5998469 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

Could be worse. We could be forced to march there ala Batan to stay carbon neutral.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:13 | 5998550 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Ala the trail of tears

What goes around comes around. They don't need "settlers" anymore and they have grown tired of feeding and pacifying them.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:22 | 5998343 Grumbleduke
Grumbleduke's picture

judging by historical "evidence", at least 6 Million.

Churchill managed about the same in Rhodesia and South Africa, if memory serves right. Stalin and the gulag system has been proven to work just fine.

And Americans manage to incarcerate a lot of people, so the herd is thin already. And if necessary, they are crafty mofos: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment_of_Japanese_Americans

Stay around, and find out...

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:44 | 5998443 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

See what I mean?

Except they'll be built as "gated communities" with amuzements such as cross bow shooting.

Now where have we seen that before??

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:39 | 5998665 Thisson
Thisson's picture

"Thin" isn't exactly the adjective I would have selected...

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:02 | 5998282 wmbz
wmbz's picture

The Hildabeast sez she will call them "fun camps" and she teach us all with her wonderful laugh/howl/cackle!

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:40 | 5998426 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

There will be millions of "Housing tents" set up to bolster the numbers. 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:03 | 5998290 j0nx
j0nx's picture

I read all these claims about a crashing housing market yet I see homes around me surging in price by 10% a month and only sitting on the market for days to weeks before they sell. Something doesn't add up other than I live in the lair of the wolf in Northern Virginia.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:18 | 5998331 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Probably because the only place where there is wage growth in the country is around DC.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:15 | 5998555 JRobby
JRobby's picture

You should buy now before it runs up 25% - 30%

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:19 | 5998579 NoVa
NoVa's picture

me too

clearly it is the Federal jobs - direct employ or indirect through contractors supporting the housing market here in Fairfax and Loudon.  we could have a shock if the budget sequestration happens in August / September, but the GOP will cave and concede.  

I live and work out near Dulles airport - it is amazing (sad and very troubling) at the growth of commercial real estate.  especially "secure sites" that have fences, large boulder rocks around perimeter of the complex.  

spooks everywhere

 

NoVa

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:38 | 5999160 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases 5 Percent in January Driven By 15-Month High in Bank Repossessions

 

http://www.realtytrac.com/news/foreclosure-trends/january-2015-u-s-forec...

 

If we did not have the zero-down and near zero-down mortgages again, this market might actually correct and stabilize like it did in the late 1980's.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:17 | 5998561 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Opposes the recent "homebuilder confidence" numbers.

Confidence is an interesting word.

Confidence gets cleaned out.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:55 | 5998723 starman
starman's picture

Yep its been pretty fng cold here in Cali! 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 13:28 | 5999396 Vullsain
Vullsain's picture

Got a new one for the bankster parrots. The weather has been to nice to waste beautiful days looking for a home. It is  a buyers market with interest rates so low, why not be patient. Just around the corner it will be the perfect time to buy not to cold out but not to nice out either. Housing will take off like a rocket.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:10 | 5998275 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

All I have to do is look down the road. 4 nice brick houses within a rifle shot from my front porch, 1450-3300 sq/ft priced  160-340k all with 5+ acres have been up for sale for more than a year each.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:31 | 5998633 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

It is bizarre around here. Giant mansions and new developments popping up. I have no idea who in the hell is buying these places as most people around here are secretly up to their eyeballs in debt and broke.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:01 | 5998279 MathWins
MathWins's picture

Lumber futures are down about $68 from a year ago, and has been in a steady decline since January.  In our neck of the woods that equals about a 17% decline in delivered prices, which is a big move for our business.  Everyone thought Spring would bring a bounce.  Still waiting........

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:04 | 5998291 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

Bargains in Ferguson, MO.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:04 | 5998294 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Silly Joe LaVorgna, that is what backhoes are for. Had construction done years ago in January with snow on the ground. Where do they find idiots like LaVorgna? Even a valley chick knows about backhoes. /sarc

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:05 | 5998300 IntercoursetheEU
IntercoursetheEU's picture

Don't really understand the problem. Just got all cardboard boxes set up in our neighborhood.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:06 | 5998301 Confundido
Confundido's picture

*

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:11 | 5998315 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Frozen ground is the excuse? My buddy is building a house in NEBRASKA and they broke ground a month ago. Come on man

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:13 | 5998317 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

but housing stocks are pushing to all time highs

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-monthly-closes-cal...

 

and this is what central banks do to markets - fraud fraud fraud

 

housing hasn't come close to recovering from 2006 and likely won't for a very long time

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:18 | 5998332 Nostradalus
Nostradalus's picture

That's funny because Joe LaVorgna forecast filet mignon for dinner last night, but missed, and had spaghetti.

What an ass (does he think we dig foundations with teaspoons wielded by chicks in bikinis?) We actually use the other type of "back hoe..."

Fucking moron...

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:18 | 5998333 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

Two issues with LaVorgna's statement:

We here in the north manage to bury our dead...in the winter....in frozen ground...using the little backhoe that cemetery owns.

Here we also managed to get all the supports up for the new hotel ...in the winter...in frozen ground.

Perhaps he should get out of the office more or just stop using "snow in the winter" as an excuse for missed numbers.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:19 | 5998334 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

WTH is up with the double posts. Hit enter once & it posts twice.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:28 | 5998373 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

The ability of individuals to come up with reasons to justify what is happening never ceases.  The fact that these idoits are still in business shows you just how bad we need a real recession to occur.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:31 | 5998393 Temerity Trader
Temerity Trader's picture

“The sky is falling!” It would seem more appropriate if ZH were to tout itself as a comedy site. The stories of perpetual gloom and doom give everyone a good laugh. The only people not laughing are those that foolishly thought the advice dispensed here to be meaningful for investing. Perhaps some with deep pockets will hang on for another five to ten years until the big crash finally arrives. Yes, with Dow pushed up to 25K thru Fed-induced stock buybacks and interventions, a huge 1500 point “crash” will be seen as proof ZHer’s were right all along. Of course, the Fed will immediately announce have they have plenty more tools left to use, and short covering will erase the fall quickly and push the markets still higher.

The New Normal continues to rip the faces off the perma-bears. They cannot accept the incredible power amassed by central bankers to manipulate stocks higher. Much is just simple psychology, remove fear and cheer on ‘Animal Spirits’. Keep rates low and keep people borrowing and buying. Forget about austerity and push deficit spending. Wealth inequality means nothing to the masses so long a they can see their 401K’s rise each month. A brand new SUV and I-Phone equals a blissful existence for most, with debts sure to be forgiven anyway. Entitlement programs ensure our cities don’t burn.

 

Every dip is bought by millions who know the Fed has their backs. Hopefully, people will be amused by the various articles posted here, but not mistake them for sound investment advice.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:43 | 5998437 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

So says a staff writer for The Onion.....

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:04 | 5998511 Mike Honcho
Mike Honcho's picture

You have placed your faith in centrally planned system that is taking the economy to the bare bones.  The assessment above is as delirious as your masters.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:11 | 5998541 jamochavez
jamochavez's picture

"Every dip is bought by millions who know the Fed has their backs"--love that--you can't lose--its free money-you should be retired and not wasting time on this site

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:22 | 5998593 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The central banks are invincible!

https://youtu.be/ikssfUhAlgg

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 09:54 | 5998477 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Homes are being built and sold quickly in NE Georgia where we live.  In the $160 - $275K range. 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:03 | 5998502 Md4
Md4's picture

If there's one racket that ever deserved a deflationary death spiral, the shack racket of today would be at the top of the list...

Pleeeeze die already.

m

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:04 | 5998510 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I said it before, I'll say it again, you can't have a healthy housing market when many are un or under employed.  Even though the government lie about 5.6% unemployment rate says we're at full employment.  One reveals the lie of the other.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:44 | 5998680 daveO
daveO's picture

And with the ones who are working at peak debt with increasing taxes(like O'Care).

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:09 | 5999023 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Fuck Ocare and the horse's ass it rode in on!

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:05 | 5998513 Colonel Walter ...
Colonel Walter E Kurtz's picture

Gentlemen....

Yes, you can dig in the winter but it does end up costing more trying to work in the cold weather. Not all the construction trades get to work inside a heated cab digging dirt. The follow up trades have to work out in the elements and production goes down dramatically thereby increasing costs. Some materials (i.e. concrete) also may need to be heated when the temperature get low enough. Instead of spending extra money to work through the cold (it can be an extra 15-25% in labor), most builders/homeowners/building owners will wait until the spring. 

But please still feel free in general to pick on LaVorgna because he is just a shill.

 

 

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:13 | 5999032 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Rule of thumb is 3 consecutive days 40 degrees or higher to pour cement. There is however a cold weather method with "blankets" that is used.  With that said Joey baby is full of BS.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:12 | 5998544 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Joey LaV has trouble spelling:  affect, not effect.

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