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Philly Fed Limps Higher After "Weather" Crash, New Orders Tumble To 2 Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After crashing from November to January (oh that's just weather), the Philly Fed factory index has failed to do anything but limp higher in the last 3 months. Printing at 7.5 in April (slightly better than the expected 6.0, Philly Fed continues to hover around 1 year lows. The post-weather rebound is entirely missing as New Orders plunged to 2 year lows (though employment surged) with more firms reporting price decreases than reporting price increases.

 

No post-weather bounce... (perhaps it was not the weather after all)

 

With the lowest New Orders in 2 years...

 

And Prices Paid is signaling a looming recession...

 

And the breakdown shows...

 

As the report notes:

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggests continued modest expansion of the region’s manufacturing sector in April. The indicators for general activity and new orders both suggest expansion, but at a very modest pace. Firms, however, reported an increase in employment this month. Some respondents continued to report downward price pressures for inputs. For their own manufactured products, more firms reported price decreases than reported price increases, although 80 percent of the firms reported steady prices. Indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months improved modestly this month, and the firms were notably more optimistic in their forecast for future employment growth.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:17 | 5998568 NoIdea
NoIdea's picture

One Philly Fed beat outweighs all the other misses of the day.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:19 | 5998576 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The Philly Fed is just pussy whipped by now.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:29 | 5998620 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

BUT WE'RE SAVED!!

Cause the Atlanta Fed "GDP Now" Q1 GDP just jumped 100% from two weeks ago!

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.aspx

We're saved!  We're saved!!

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:36 | 5998655 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

If I were a person who enjoyed the look, feel, and sense of security provided by DIY metallic headgear I might be inclined to believe that some folks had a quiet conversation when they realized that the GDP Now page started getting greater than average (average being next to no) attention.  Even if we are actually in a recession, they could be forgiven if the model was off by a mere 3 tenths of a percent - after all it would be more dangerous to signal that we're actually in a recession if we weren't.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 12:30 | 5999120 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Don't worry, manufacturing etc may be tanking but you can have a bright future at Starbucks......

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:29 | 5998621 BoredRoom
BoredRoom's picture

It's not weather, it's Climate Change

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:19 | 5998575 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Worst since Lehman?

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:22 | 5998595 kowalli
kowalli's picture

i bet it will go lowere, much lower.

mb worst since ww2

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:24 | 5998601 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Cheese steak sandwiches, EBT cards, Obama phones,  fatherless kids and crime are what is driving the economy of Philly.  Ib fact, it is what is driving most of the USA. What a sham!

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:26 | 5998611 Puncher75
Puncher75's picture

And mindless Democrat voters on the public tit

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:30 | 5998628 BoredRoom
BoredRoom's picture

it's a 'sammich' in Philthy

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:28 | 5998616 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I just keep going back to the black knight hopping around on one leg screaming, "I'm invincible!" This is just ridiculous. We can call it the Looney Non-recession. You have to be looney to believe it. It turns out most are.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:29 | 5998623 Spungo
Spungo's picture

We need to paper over this bitch as quickly as possible.

Thu, 04/16/2015 - 10:40 | 5998668 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Raindrops on roses and girls with big titties
Hacked body parts of banksters in cities
Brown paper bags of my proceeds from blow
Hung politicians i didn't know . .

When the sharks bite
When the baton stings
When i'm feeling sad
I simply remember my favourite things and
Then i don't feel so BAD.

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