This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Grexit Lives As "Deluded" Forecasters Predict The Unpredictable
***Update:
- SCHAEUBLE: GREECE FREE TO SEEK RUSSIAN AID, MAY NOT GET MUCH
- SCHAEUBLE: GREECE MUST RESPECT ACCORDS TO GET TRANCHE PAYMENT
- SCHAEUBLE: SHOULDN'T EXPECT GREECE PROBLEM SOLUTION IN RIGA
- WEIDMANN SAYS ELA MUST BE TIED TO BANKS IMPROVING LIQUIDITY
“Anybody who says they know what will happen if Greece is pushed out of the euro is deluded”, Greek FinMin Varoufakis told an audience at the Brookings Institute yesterday as the clock ticks and as Greece’s public sector employees wonder if their wages and pensions will be paid in euros or IOUs. “Deluded” though their forecasts may be, that’s not stopping anyone and everyone from attempting to plan for an imminent default and everything that goes with it.
For their part, Bloomberg is out with an “ABC” scenario where “A” has Syriza folding their hand, adopting more austerity, and receiving the next tranche of aid; “B” involves the imposition of capital controls which in turn pushes Greeks to either support full euro membership and the tough choices that come with it or supporting an pseudo-exit which involves a parallel currency (IOUs), defaults, and restructurings; and where “C” is for “‘C’an you believe it? Everything ZH has been warning about it coming true.”
Here’s more:
SCENARIO A -- GREXIT AVOIDED
Faced with a choice between expulsion from the euro area or implementing austerity in exchange for loans, Tsipras takes the cash. The ECB maintains its support of the financial system.
While aid flows, the government’s days are numbered as his most hardline supporters mutiny. A new coalition is formed and backing from pro-European opposition parties keeps Tsipras in office -- or elections are called.
Greece’s membership of the euro is ultimately secured.
SCENARIO B1: SOMERSAULT
The dramatic consequences of capital controls -- limits on withdrawals and transfers -- force Tsipras to compromise. Opinion polls show that most Greeks -- between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population -- want to stay in the euro area “at any cost.”
Tsipras forges a new coalition with opposition lawmakers of pro-European parties. A referendum, carried out amid capital controls and with banks shut, gives him a mandate to reverse course. A unity government is formed and Greece remains in the euro but not before the disruption triggers a new recession.
SCENARIO B2: CHECKING OUT
With banks shut, the political situation deteriorates and a popular uprising intensifies, with Germany targeted as the country’s main antagonist. Polls show a swing in favor of breaking from the euro area.
Capital controls give the government the space and time to print either a new currency or IOUs for domestic payments. The new scrip quickly plunges, reflecting the weak fundamentals of an economy that has shrunk by about a quarter since 2008.
Euro-area governments give Greece a “sweetener,” a loan in hard currency. The rationale is to avert total economic collapse, which would create a failed state in a strategically critical region.
Greece’s debt to public entities is restructured, providing for the repayment of loans to the IMF, either through the euro area’s crisis fund or from the departure credit. Greece remains shut out of debt markets.
Most Greek companies and banks default. Some bank deposits are seized to recapitalize a shattered financial system...
The new paper and the euro both circulate. Greece hasn’t officially left the euro zone -- the door is open to a return in good standing...
SCENARIO C -- ‘C’ FOR CATASTROPHE
Greece separates from the euro area in a messy default, amid demonstrations, deepening misery for most and the government blaming everything on the Germans.
No help is provided to support a new currency and to keep servicing bonds and IMF debt. That triggers cross-default clauses to all creditors. The government and banks collapse, meaning that years will be needed before a new structure emerges.
Greece’s economy plunges into a second depression. The blow from the biggest default in the history of capitalism drives Europe back into a recession and heaps pressure on vulnerable euro countries such as Italy.
Bad blood leads to Greece’s departure from the European Union. The idea that the euro is irreversible is thrown into question, rattling global markets.
The economic implosion paves the way for extremists, from either the left or the far right, to take power. Those who can, flee the country.
The tumult casts doubt on Greek membership in NATO. A new - - and unstable -- government turns to Russia for support, providing a Mediterranean outpost for Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, BofAML is keen to note that this may be one time where an eleventh hour agreement won’t be enough to save the situation:
Parkinson’s law states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion”. In the context of Greece that can be interpreted as the negotiations continuing up until the deadline. In Europe there always seems to be a deadline after the deadline, turning Parkinson’s law into eternal procrastination. However, the likely deterioration of Greece’s cash flow position at month-end and through early May should accelerate proceedings, in our view…
It seems increasingly unlikely that the Eurogroup of April 24 will achieve an agreement on Greece. In Greece: the challenges ahead we argued that to avoid extreme scenarios Greece needs a Eurogroup agreement as soon as possible, an approval of this agreement in the Greek Parliament and a solution to cover short-term funding needs. Headlines from the IMF meetings suggest that the European authorities do not expect an agreement on April 24, but hope to achieve more progress by the Eurogroup of May 11.
We will be concerned if we don’t see any progress on Greece in next week’s Eurogroup. The government’s cash buffers are very limited. Press reports in Greece suggest that the general government’s cash buffers are €2.5bn to €3.5bn. Not all of it is available, as it is with state entities that are independent and have their own rules and decision processes. If the government is unable to access any of these funds, then Greece may face the risk of an internal default as early as the end of April, or the risk of missing a payment to the IMF in early May. Even if the government can access all these funds—which is very unlikely in our view— the government may be unable to meet its internal spending obligations by the end of May. Therefore, without a Eurogroup deal and new official loans, we expect Greece to miss internal and external payments sometime in May, which will lead to an official default in June
Here’s a look at everything coming due over the next several months. This includes internal payments due to public sector employees, T-bill rolls, and external creditor payments:
As we’ve seen over the last 48 or so hours (i.e. since reports surfaced that Germany was preparing contingency plans and that the Greek government had floated the idea of shuffling its payment schedule with the IMF), contagion risk in the form of widening periphery spreads appears to be back on the table.
Here’s Barclays on contagion...
We continue to think that the direct costs of a Greek default and exit appear manageable but contagion would create near-term stress in risky assets, especially in fragile periphery economies such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, even if a Greek exit did not lead to a break-up of EMU. Yet a Greek exit would certainly set a precedent, changing the fundamental nature of the monetary union to one in which “exiting” would become a distinct possibility. Every time a euro area country encountered solvency or political risks, the markets would be on high alert, even if these were not near-term risks.
And as we’ve reported on dozens of occasions, the country’s public sector financial situation is dire as Athens faces the absurd proposition of paying employees in IOUs which would eventually be returned in the form of tax payments further bankrupting the government…
...and on public finance...
With no new official funding received since the summer of 2014, it’s no surprise, in our view, that the Greek authorities have been struggling to meet payments since early 2015. Press reports (Bloomberg, Reuters, Ekathimerini) indicate that the central government has been increasing the use of arrears and has tapped unused cash reserves in various public state bodies (from state-owned companies, social security funds, etc). Furthermore, the central bank reportedly stepped in via a government-held account to avoid an unsuccessful t-bill auction, while the €2.7bn shortfall in the 2014 primary surplus was reportedly paid for out of general government liquidity reserves, putting further strain on the state’s liquidity position.
It also appears that other nations have moved into preservation mode as Kathimerini reports the central banks of several countries which have a large Greek banking presence are looking to rein in their exposure to Greek risk via a veritable quarantine presaging a precarious situation ahead.
...and on bank runs and capital controls...
The risks of a liquidity accident remain high. One possible transmission channel could be an acceleration of deposit outflows into a bank run, most likely triggered by a disagreement between the institutions and the Greek government on key policy issues, a default on a payment or as a result of a political crisis within the Greek government. The acceleration of a bank run would in all likelihood require some form of capital controls to stem the deposit outflows. To be clear, we are not of the view that such controls can be imposed pre-emptively by the Bank of Greece, but rather as a consequence of a negative shock that ends with an acceleration in deposit outflows. We do not think that the government will decide unilaterally to default on its international commitments. Instead, we believe, that a default would more likely be the consequence of the government’s inability to agree with the institutions, or the possibility of a new programme veering off track again, rather than a pre-emptive strategic decision (even if this possibility cannot be ruled out either). In turn, a default would trigger the imposition of capital controls.
Finally, here’s Goldman on contagion:
As the Greek situation has turned more confrontational, the correlation between Greece’s sovereign risk with that of EMU peripheral markets has picked up again. To measure the degree of spill-over, we use a dynamic conditional correlation approach, which allows for the co-movement in asset prices to vary over time. Using data up to yesterday’s close, we note that the daily correlation between Italian/Spanish 10-year bond yields and their Greek counterparts, which had fallen since the announcement of QE, has picked up slightly. At around 20%, it is around 40% lower than its average since April 2012. Among the EMU peripheral countries, Portugal appears to be the most exposed market to developments in Greece. Its correlation is 50% higher than that of Spain and Italy, and it is now only 20% lower than the average since 2012. The yield change correlation between Spain and Italy and the core (Germany/France) has also become less positive – an indication that bond returns in these two large peripherals are being affected by a credit component, rather than duration alone.
* * *
That is where the situation stands at present although we’re sure the hits will keep coming in terms of rhetoric, posturing, and brinksmanship on the part of both Athens and its creditors. In the mean time, Greeks have once again taken to the streets to express their discontent with living in a perpetual state of uncertainty, and as history makes clear, a desperate populace has the potential to spawn decisively undesirable political movements and outcomes.
For anyone who still doubts whether the possibility of Grexit is real, recall that, as we reported yesterday, all bets are now literally off.
»
- 18802 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
What happened Mario? I thought it was "irreversible?"
(just practicing for the hard core twitter trololololing of the ECB sometime in the near future) (I hope)
Does this mean Anne Margaret isn't coming?
Blah, blah blah blah Greece....this shit should have been resolved 4 years ago, most people knew the outcome. which makes me wonder how long they can kick the can for the rest of the fake economy. maybe I should hope for the shit to end in Sept. what ever that maybe: asteroid, economic collapse, nuke emp. and bassed on some calendar that man created...
I'm tired and my bunker supplies have all expired....
Buy new stock for the bunker, and either use up the old stuff first, or sell it for physical when it all goes south.
...Send Arnold Schwarzenegger to clean things up in Greece.
He has Greek heritage btw.
Greeks should borrow/take from the U.S. Fed. That money is free! Just hit ctrl-p
Astonishing focus on what Super Mario says. I remember the times where even Americans would not hang on the lips and dissect every damn word from a FED "Chairman". That was of course before "Forward Guidance" was pushed as the New Way of Central Economic Control
For me it's very simple: "Opinion polls show that most Greeks -- between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population -- want to stay in the euro area “at any cost.” "
Yes, Greeks voted, yes, the current coalition in the Greek Parliament choose the SYRIZA Tsipras (and the Independent Varoufakis) to lead their government
Yes, the Greek Parliament is giving them a chance, and it's slightly less pro-EU and pro-EUR then the general population
Yes, Greeks are a very proud People, and don't take affronts lightly
Nevertheless, if Tsipras fails in the admittedly difficult task he was given... well, Prime Ministers in Europe aren't ordained from the heavens. Governments come and go, on the whims of Parliament
So either Tsipras and Varoufakis get the ball rolling without excluding Greece from the EUR, or they will most probably be thrown out, and we can have a loooooooooong discussion here on ZH on how we Europeans always "defenestrate" leaders that "don't follow the EU line", as we had years ago with Berlusconi (btw, Sarkozy is coming back)
"Opinion polls show that most Greeks -- between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population -- want to stay in the euro area “at any cost.”
The *exact* reason I have literally zero sympathy for the Greeks. Enjoy surfdom.
I could point out that Greeks are possibly the second-greatest lovers of gold, after (again, possibly) Turks
if gold as a currency was an option, those "Hard Currency" Greeks would imho say "don't even bother with the EUR, gimme gold"
the fact is that some 60% to 75% of Greeks want a hard currency. are you going to provide something even remotely looking like that?
Nope.
I just know that the disorganized Greek default will cause the EMZ and EU endless grief.
Its why I like the idea. I really couldn't care less about the Greeks. Then again, them leaving would result in me having super cheap vacations, but given the GF/Fiance is German, I can imagine she wouldn't be welcome there again for some time.
have you ever been on any of the Greek isles in summer? chockerblock full of Germans, all very welcome
last time I looked at the tourism figures, there were some 2 million Germans that visited Greece in one year. don't mistake Athens the political capital for the whole of Greece
Yep. I suspect those vacations will get a bit more expensive. If not, go long kidnapping.
At any cost???
Can you substantiate that assertion?
You need to wake up and examine how the question to the Greek people is usually phrased, and I assure you "at any cost" is not in it.
I only copied and pasted the phrase from the article. "at any cost" is imo a bit hyperbolic, yes, don't think this includes selling firstborns into slavery
nevertheless, that number of pro-EUR Greeks is something that I am following since years. I had the impression it would decrease, eventually, but no, there it is
Well, STOP copying and pasting and repeating nonsense like a parrot and start THINKING.
Do you think that if the question of whether Greeks wanted to stay in the euro included "at all cost" or more specifically remaining debt slaves FOREVER, a never ending economic depression, loss of sovereignty, the fire sale of national assets until the country is bled totally dry, the NO FUTURE for an entire generation of young Greeks, do you think Greeks would answer "YES, we want the euro at all cost".
Stop brainlessly repeating Brussels propaganda.
well, let me see: I had, until recently, a business in Greece, know quite well the country and happen to talk often with Greeks
of course, being an entrepreneur, it could be that my view is skewed. but those figures confirm my view and what I hear from my partners there
what are your sources? or are you - as many here - projecting your local issues unto others? from the choice of your words, I'd say projection it is
btw, if I was a Brussels propagandist... my choice of avatar would at least be refreshing, wouldn't it?
"I had, until recently, a business in Greece"
haha, you pulled out like everyone did or will.
and btw: noone cares what the fuck the Greeks want or think!
"... Sarkozy is coming back"
If he gets another go I say DSK should get another go at the IMF. Fair is fair!
Nobody will, time to cull the fucking herd...
same as it ever was...
.
Opinion polls show that most Greeks -- between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population -- want to stay in the euro area “at any cost.”
I love this opinion poll bull shit. Who did the opinion poll? It makes little sense that the Greeks have experienced a complete depression in the last few years but still want more of the same in the Euro zone. Havent they thought this out? Are they stupid? They are being raped by the Troika and there are several similar examples that confirm it all over the EMU. It just goes on and on and now opinion polls say they want moar? It makes no sense.
@Haus-Targaryen . There must be a touch of masochism in the Greek Psyche . Slaves for generations ?
People who say they want something "at any cost" are people who haven't yet seen the cost of anything.
I beg to differ. Greeks have a living memory of both a military dictatorship and seriously bad management of monetary matters. All in all, they have a very good idea of what the costs are
Tsipras promised them a different solution to a very well known set of problems. If he delivers even a fraction of that, he'll stay in power. If not, he'll be thrown out
as I wrote, this Parliament is slightly to the left of the electorate, but not much. and it's relatively "fresh", i.e. with lots of new people
and even the other governments in the EU are cutting this fresh government a lot of slack. but Tsipras/Varoufakis have to deliver something, eventually
in other words, if their plan is to Exit the EUR, they haven't sold it yet. meanwhile, note that they do not want to part ways with the IMF
You are full of europhile shit, and shit which you parrot with a lot of conviction.
Get a clue before you spew this crap on here.
thank you. could you please rephrase your argument? I think I did not understand it. are you saying that Greeks would prefer to have a Drachma, now, immediately?
or that the Greek Parliament is going to stick to Tsipras, regardless?
It is utterly stupid to suggest that Greeks would prefer the drachma UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. It is more stupid however to suggest that Greeks prefer the euro "at all cost" (even if it's cut and pasted).
Greece has crossed the rubicon, it's just that the Greek public hasn't come to grips with that YET. The two choices facing them are simple and both very painful. Staying with the euro and this failed austerity program will competely destroy Greece, they will cease to exist as a sovereign country, they will exist in name only. Going back to a national currency has severe negative SHORT TERM (3 Years) implications (more GDP loss, higher unemployment, high inflation) BUT IT ALSO HAS A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL CALLED GROWTH.
Research several studies on this but particularly the one from the Oxford schoold of economics which in my opinion is the most comprehensive.
I fear I'm a very oldfashioned Austrian School proponent. Staying in the EUR and balancing budgets is my advice to Greece
that debt thing? there is time until 2023 to discuss it. what can't be ever repaid, won't be repaid, as ever
oh, and that thing, "growth"? I believe in natural, organic growth, not in debt-fuelled frenzies masquerading as such
Ghordy how can you look at their established historical default record and take the Greek nation's opinion poles on this whole aspect of Greek theater, seriously? They are clearly rorting the international system for all they can get, and I seriously doubt any poles are a reflection of heart-felt sentiments or intents. More like asking them like who has the biggest wallet to offer the most on-going handouts. This entire east-west thing they are playing is a joke. They want to use the tensions to milk Russia for freebies (remember that Russia provided the broke Yanukovich's govt large new 'loans' to give up on the association agreement option), while they also use that to hold out to obtain concessions from the EU.
I suspect the Kremlin sees Tsipras as the Greek analogue of a broke-ass fluffing Vic Yanukovich - neither broke country can afford to be a worthwhile partner of either Russia or the EU.
The Russians were suckers for half of the broke developing-world countries during the cold war, trying to buying loyalty with unfordable weapons and developmental projects. You can't buy solid allies that way. It didn't work out then and won't work out now. Plus Greece isn't going to be anyone's 'solid ally'. They are not disposed to that, as their behavior is highly variable and geopolitically opportunistic.
I'm sure the Greek govt also realizes that if they did try to strike a deal with Russia, which impaired European strategic security, Tsipras would require exile in Russia too. There's more chance of Saudi Arabia buying Rome to eliminate the Vatican, than of Tsipras introducing Russian military bases to Greece. The Greeks will pursue the biggest piece of cheese they can get, and Russia knows it can not offer that, for the biggest peice of cheese is Greece's own strategic security. If Panama can be invaded overnight, on the grounds of perceived vital interests being at stake, Greece is no different if it again presents a similar 'threat' to such vital interests
What Tsipras and Co are doing is a fine-line, because if he goes to far he will not realize it until he finds himself drowning in an assisted tragic waterbed accident. Tsipras seems to feel that if he's fearless and brazen enough and does it publicly enough, with Russian moral support, then nothing will happen to him. I doubt his calculation is accurate. When TPTB have had enough of his schtick the palm trees do so love a fresh squirt of liquid blood-'n-bone.
All these endless discussions of what Greece might do are mostly irrelevant fluff.
Element, perhaps I'm cheering for them... too much
and perhaps monetary and political choices are for me what technical and scientific matters are for you: the occasion of writing endlessly about them
excellent comment, btw. I must think a bit more on the geopolitical wrinkles. your "solid ally" theory... I have to let it marinate for a while
Balancing the budget when the debt , impossible to repay is over 400 billions ?
Stay at any cost in the EU with traitors at the top is madness . Ever heard of Iceland and what they did ? There is life after the EU ....... Greece must help the EU to collapse ! What better way to default and pivot East ?
"Staying in the EUR and balancing budgets is my advice to Greece"
This like giving the advice "to fly" to an elefant!
double post
The Oxford school of Economics is wrong. Whovever wrote these studies should revisit and revise greatly or they will look very foolish. They have no clue who/what they are dealing with.
It took Germany quite a few years but they are starting to get it.
Predict The Unpredictable
Define unpredictable.
Did it years ago.....and boy did we catch hell for it.
Words no longer have fixed definitions. They are "massaged" to fit the narative of the PTB. Except "fuck the Fed" is still valid.
The risks of a liquidity accident remain high = The chances of the system blowing the fuck up have increased a tad.
That's what happens when you want to control what has yet to be created.
no big deal in the US. the "markets" will just break every 3-4 minutes to keep the dream alive.
Why does the media ignore all the bank runs going on in Greece???
Because the media in the U.S. no longer exists.
It is all controlled by 5 entities.
SCHAEUBLE: GREECE FREE TO SEEK RUSSIAN AID, MAY NOT GET MUCH
Oh, that's big of him, Greece is free
Russian aid will be conditional on first defaulting on all sovereign debts. Which will cause cross defaults and the failure of Greek Banks.
Russia will pay only for current expenses, no Russian money can or will be used to pay down debt. Russian banks and Greek state owned banks will take over retail banking in Greece.
Going to be an awesome MayDay....they take that stuff serious in Europe
What would Schauble think about Greece seeking special term Sino-Chinese aid (as opposed to a loan) well AFTER a default? different animal
Yes, considering that the sino-chinese want the rest of the greek ports, it would be a perfect deal and the russians would be in there also with energy recourse exploration and gas tranfers. It doesn't look all that bad at all. It would be inclined to say that the future looks good for the Greeks if this is the case.
The latest odds on Greece leaving the EU on betting sites is 2-1. Not exactly a slam-dunk at this point.
They also have Hillary burying the rest of field in the 2016 Presidential election.
I wouldn't call a rocky dubious start actually burying anything.....unless you work for MSNBC that is.
I bet you heard that on the internet.
That which cannot be sustained, won't be. The arrogance and greed of man clashing with the laws of Nature and physics....
LOL! same as it ever was...
tick tock motherfuckers...
In 50 years our grand children will witness the collapse and say "grandpappy was right. I wasn't sustained." Meanwhile, millions of human life years were spent in misery caused by the actions of a handful of men.
It sure will be nice to be right.
Greece's leaving the EU and joining the party of freedom under Putin's Russia would only be a catastrophe to the banksters.
The real catastrophe will be caused by NATO, who will be only too hapoy to start daily bombing raids of Greek cities.
The banksters are determined that only they will leave the Fourth Reich alive and with their wealth more or less intact.
there's an antidote to that:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/europe-will-be-very-angry-when-...
Scenario D: if you read news about Greece for anything other than amusement, you're almost certainly a big fat sucker.
although they covered all the possible scenarios, I'm preatty sure what will really happen is somewhere else!
Kick the theives out. They dont produce anything of worth to export even with a devalued currency. They over spend, under tax collect and are generally as useful to the EU as a one legged man in a butt kicking competition.
The faster the better. Lets show some spine like the Krauts and kick these psuedo Albanians out.
Then why all the money poured in there already? They must have thought there was some use? If they were wrong, then they were idiots and who would want to be told what to do by EU idiots when you can be told what to do by your own national idiots? And if the EU were right in allowing Greece in (and don't give me the fraud argument...like these bankers didn't know what they were getting) because they are so smart...then they got something they wanted and you just don't know what that is.
My point is, you can't have it both ways. If Greece is and has always been as dicey as you claim, then why did the EU allow them in their "precious organization" anyway? It wasn't out of kindness...pleeeaaaase. The "Krauts" as you say run that show and have always had the leverage. So they wanted Greece in and likely helped them fix the numbers so they got in. Your dream of some great EU is an illusion; with or without Greece.
In Free Republic..they have a daily post of the New Your Times articles about WWII....we are just a few days away from its end...May 9th I think...when the Russians beat us to Berlin.....so I bet May 9th is the date Greece wants to leave Germany again...and this article sure does not like the last option...they pretty much say the world will fall apart...lol...
If I was Greece I'd default first and then get receive the money from Russia. And if I was Russia I would make Greece exit the EU first so they don't just hand over the money to the EU pricks.
Russia would like a NAVY base in Greece. It Greece wants asistance from Russia, Russia will get that base.
Makes sense, as there simply are no free lunches in life... (despite all the QE bullshit).
Laughed out loud yesterday reading of Greece proposing to buy reload missiles for their S300 SAM systems. Clearly this is a definition of 'buy' that does not involve payment for the trading of goods and services.
This Greek Tragedy has morphed into a Comedy. Or is it the other way around?
A Russian navy base in Greece would piss off Turkey. I think Russia has secured enough landing rights inCyprus where many rich Russians live. In Cyprus they could cut a deal for helping locate oil and gas and invest as well as benefit from the distributionof such. Not sure whether they could help massage a "unification" of the island of Cyprus to stay tight with the Turks. Financial help to Greece in a significant way would cost one hell of a lot. But to have Greece stay in the EU and veto every measure in Brussels would be a nice thorn in the EUs side.
They have been kicking the can, but now it has ricocheted.
"Opinion polls show that most Greeks -- between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population -- want to stay in the euro area “at any cost.”
I learned a long time ago the path to negotiating the best price on a vehicle is to know going in the market for that vehicle, along with how much negotiating room the dealer has to work with. Then after spending enough time with the back and forth so the dealer knows I'm a serious buyer, give them my bottom line to which if rejected, I will walk away. Usually, the dealer will come after me as I walk out, if not so be it. The Greek people elected their current government on the promise they would renegotiate a better deal with the ECB = eliminating austerity. The ECB hasn't budged off this demand. Greece has to know they must at the very least begin the process of withdrawing from the EU and bringing back the Drachma. But this can't be just for show, they have to want to do it. If 2/3 want to stay in the EU 'at any cost', then 2/3 want to live under austerity.
The poor people of Greece sure have been jerked around over the years by various fearless visionary corrupt socialist/marxist/communist leadership (sic)! They need to track these 'heros' down and hang them in the town square! I am amazed the Greeks ever want to vote again. This is definately a warning to the rest of the world who are more or less being 'led' by the nose by the same kind of dangerous delusional low lifes! SOCIALSIM KILLS!
Maybe that will be the kind of thing that would lead to "emergency humanitarian action being needed" by NATO ala EU ala US ala BANKSTERS. You know? To save the Greek people...from themselves (holding politicians accountable is tantamount to social masochism in this Orwellian age). They can be bombed back in to the safety and loving arms of the ECB and IMF then.
If a deal was/is struck with Russia after a default, I wouldn't be surprised if the raids started no matter the excuse. They'll probably find some yellow cake floating through a port in the Aegean or something...