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Japan's "Over 65" Rise To Record 33 Million, More Than Double Number Of Children

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With Abenomics seemingly a total failure (aside from managing to collapse the currency and living standards of the population - worst Misery Index in 33 years) the demographic crisis that Japan faces just got more crisis-er. As NHKWorld reports, Japan's population continues to fall (4th year in a row) but what is worse, there are now 33 million people over the age of 65 (a record 26%), more than double the number under the age of 14 (16.2 million). The ministry says the population will likely continue declining for some time as fewer babies are born and society ages.

As NHK World reports, Japan's government says the country's population continues to decrease and become grayer.

The internal affairs ministry estimates that the population stood at 127.1 million on October 1st last year. That's down 215,000 from the previous year, for a fourth straight year of decline.

 

 

The population comprised 61.8 million males and 65.3 million females.

 

The figures include foreigners who lived in the country for three months or longer.

 

The number of people considered to be of working age -- from 15 to 64 -- fell nearly 1.2 million, to 77.9 million.

 

The number of children aged up to 14 stood at 16.2 million. That's down nearly 160,000 from the previous year. They accounted for a little less than 13 percent of the total, hitting a record low for the second straight year.

 

The number of people aged 65 or over was 33 million, up 1.1 million year-on-year. They made up a record-high 26 percent of the population. The age bracket is more than twice the size of that for children for the first time since comparable data became available in 1950.

 

People born after the end of World War Two in 1945 accounted for more than 80 percent of the total for the first time.

 

The ministry says the population will likely continue declining for some time as fewer babies are born and society ages.

*  *  *

As we discussed before, there are now more than one in four Japanese citizens will be over the age of 65, up from one in five in 2006 and one in 10 in 1985. The proportion of the population over 65 is expected to swell to 30 percent by 2022 and to 40 percent by 2050, according to government estimates. This will put the country as a whole in the demographic range of the prefectures that experienced the sharpest declines in growth in the decade ended 2009.

Fewer workers and less labor will reduce the potential output of the Japanese economy, which will increase the country’s reliance on imports as retirees continue to spend, inhibiting GDP growth. The rising number of retirees will strain the government’s welfare programs and the country’s pension funds, which have been major buyers of government bonds. Japan already maintains the world’s second-largest debt load in nominal terms at more than $13.7 trillion and growing.

The government sees this problem and has passed a bill giving private-sector workers the right to remain at their jobs until the age of 65, rather than the current 60.

Japan’s demographics will also likely have an impact on consumer behavior. Japanese consumers older than 65 are less likely to shop for alcohol, clothing, books and electronics compared with younger consumers, according to a McKinsey survey from 2011. The average senior shops for books and clothing 38 and 35 times per year, respectively, compared with 73 and 58 times for people between the ages of 18 and 34. The only item seniors shop for more frequently than younger consumers is food, McKinsey found.

How Japan faces its demographic challenges over the next several decades may provide important lessons for countries such as China, which has a rapidly increasing senior population due largely to the one-child policy. People over 65 account for nearly 10 percent of the population in China — similar to Japan in 1985 — up from 6 percent 20 years ago.

 

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Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:08 | 6005024 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Long Depend Undergarments and Pension Fund (KAMPO)disbursements.

  Better call Saul... Bitchez

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:11 | 6005032 trader1
trader1's picture

Long one way tickets to chinese mainland.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:32 | 6005098 remain calm
remain calm's picture

Why won't those people fuck? It embarassing. I mean how fucking hard is it?

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:18 | 6005231 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Long Viagra and Cialis. Who makes those? Roche? Pfizer?

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:56 | 6005315 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

If the economic system does not support procreation, then procreation will stop. End of story. Next?

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:58 | 6005323 Laowei Gweilo
Laowei Gweilo's picture

that's not the problem... Japanese men have no problem getting horny

 

the problem is they rather just beat off to video game porn and virtual girlfriends

 

Japan is a pretty messed up country... incredibly fake polite and completelly lethargic about sex, love, romance... too many generations of male salarymen and subservent repressed females combined with a general culture of deflative and dismissive ignorance (from war crimes to social issues to love or romance)

 

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 22:35 | 6005395 fudge
fudge's picture

Japan is a pretty messed up country

yes . http://tokyofashion.com/photos/ .

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 22:56 | 6005450 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Japan is a Country that is producing less serfs for the banking oligarchy. Good for them... Is a few "Company Men" Japs lose their pensions and a few banks get further hammered on Japanese collateral assets, so be it.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 00:43 | 6005634 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

"Japan is a pretty messed up country... incredibly fake polite and completelly lethargic about sex, love, romance... too many generations of male salarymen and subservent repressed females combined with a general culture of deflative and dismissive ignorance (from war crimes to social issues to love or romance)"

Could of sworn you were describing feudal Japan.  The only thing that changed was back then a lot of folks were getting chopped up in feudal wars, now they just get to live longer.  Its pretty hard to cram 100 plus million people on some rocky islands without some falling off the petri dish.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 05:00 | 6005823 The Blank Stare
The Blank Stare's picture

"Japan is a pretty messed up country... incredibly fake polite and completelly lethargic about sex, love, romance... too many generations of male salarymen and subservent repressed females combined with a general culture of deflative and dismissive ignorance (from war crimes to social issues to love or romance)"

 

Not entirely true, Telly Savalas above you was right. It's too expensive to have children. Rarely do you see a family with three kids. My wifes father (Japanese) has 8 brothers and sisters. That's why! And by the way, the females are not at all reppresed, did you strike out too many times and run back home to the fat chicks?

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 13:36 | 6006517 Element
Element's picture

Japan just needs more muslim immigrants, lucky lucky Italy is getting them all!

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 15:13 | 6006742 GoldSilverBitcoinBug
GoldSilverBitcoinBug's picture

subservent repressed females

No, female, took feminist bullishit thinking so men are going Galt and MGTOW... Saying fuck the society marriage and children.

The women are so full of themselves that having a virtual GF is better...

FTFY.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:33 | 6005260 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

They are, but you can't get a silicon doll pregnant.  Yet.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 00:04 | 6005585 presterjohn1198
presterjohn1198's picture

Why?  Because most young Japanese are obsessed with their smartphones and also with playing computer games.  They simply don't know how to communicate with a 3-D human.  That would require showning feelings (which is anathema to many) and actually speaking to someone.  It's a travesty, especially considering that so many Japanese girls are knockouts.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 09:31 | 6006023 FoundInTranslation
FoundInTranslation's picture

As an under-30 expat who's lived in Japan for a while, I'll tell you why, and it has very little to do with the otaku stereotype. The sad fact of the matter is that the last two decades of BOJ intervention hell have created a two tier society, where both tiers are full of young men equally averse to reproduction:

First you have the NEETs, the underemployed, etc. - essentially the people society has deemed "losers" who could not get a good corporate job out of college and are therefore doomed to a life of low wage temp work and a total inability to start a family, economically but more important, socially. Thanks to the mass media here, the majority of Japanese women want a "successful" husband plugged into the corporate matrix who also brings home a decent salary and will thus not reproduce with men from this underclass.

 

Next you have the privileged 30% or so of men who, due to intellect or luck, make it into the matrix that is corporate Japan. Unfortunately for them, said corporate matrix just ain't what it used to be, with longer hours and less pay, leading to financial and psychological stress for these men and their partners, which, not surprisingly does not lead to an abundance of babies.   

 

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:57 | 6005191 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

'Long' odds of old Jap guys having sex with young Jap women.

/ I think I'm going Japanese, I think I'm going Japanese, I really think so. /sarc

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 19:07 | 6009463 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Watch the Slurs, Captain.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:35 | 6005257 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

And as the Rising Sun fades to their Grey......the Rise of their Robots and A.I. will pave the way for Skynet to take over most jobs in the next 50 years, particularly in the greying societies of America and Western Europe.

Welcome to the permanent underclass......

Welcome to Feudalism 2.0.1.x

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 22:43 | 6005414 chilli sauce
chilli sauce's picture

I think, I can never earn over which I paid by my precedent employer, but I was wrong, world is so large to try their fate.but now I am making $92/hr even more, can easily minimum $1700/week, on the experience everyone must try to do work online, easy way to earn, here's an example what I do... www.globe-report.com

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:20 | 6005053 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

F

U

                     K

                     U

                     S 

                     H

                     I

                    M

                    A

Period.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:20 | 6005060 nailgunnin4you
nailgunnin4you's picture

F

U

K

O

B

A

M

A

Period.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:22 | 6005069 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Hiroshima and Nagasaki have nothing to do with it, I'm sure

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:55 | 6005312 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

http://www.cfact.org/2013/10/12/physicist-there-was-no-fukushima-nuclear...

To a nuclear physicist like me, I look upon such public reaction half with amusement and half with dismay. The amusement comes from the fact that so many people can be scared so easily by so little. It is like shouting: “Ghost in the bedroom,” and everyone runs and hides in the hills.

The dismay reaction is that there is a body of anti-nuclear activists who do not want the public to know the truth, and the anti-nukes enjoy stoking the fear factor and maintaining public ignorance.

Let us now ponder the Fukushima nuclear incident which has been in the news again lately.

 

Firstly let us get something clear. There was no Fukushima nuclear disaster. Total number of people killed by nuclear radiation at Fukushima was zero. Total injured by radiation was zero. Total private property damaged by radiation….zero. There was no nuclear disaster. What there was, was a major media feeding frenzy fuelled by the rather remote possibility that there may have been a major radiation leak.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 04:20 | 6005803 papa_lazarou
papa_lazarou's picture

Well, if the CEO of a nuclear project management company says so, it must be true.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 07:43 | 6005912 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

says a nihilist on a paranoid conspiracy website.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:27 | 6005085 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Anthropologists thousands of years from now are going to have a tough time figuring out Japan.  Sex toys, old people and radiation.  What would you make of that, if you didn't know anything about them?

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:47 | 6005154 Salah
Salah's picture

Funny, ND.  Spent some time in Tokai Mura Japan, ironically as guest of JAEA (J-atomic energy agency).  What jumps out is the lack of buildable space for couples in the really big cities, and the dearth of such space in the countryside because of the need for food security and the FARMERS LOBBY.  The UK's somewhat similar, but has more arable land.  Also Japan hasn't really "sold" the familyhood aspect; they're clever (albeit stubbbbborn) people and have a top-down mentality, once it's decided.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:40 | 6005271 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

With that said....do you think that what looks like to us "Grow beyond your means, Consume all things" westeners as "weird" behavior is really just an intuitive sense of downsizing and rightsizing the country to fit with the lack of space, either for living and/or farming?

I mean...why bring a kid into the world when there is no space in the apartment, no place for when he/she moves out, and not enough arable land to produce more food for more mouths?  Plus, not to mention the lack of jobs, in large part due to automation and robots?

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 20:53 | 6005174 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Hopefully the population decline will bring down the price of Tokyo real estate so it can be purchased by people who are not oligarchs.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:24 | 6005232 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I'm tired of making jokes about the Japanese.

  They> BoJ is still hiding bad loans from the 80's, and the kids are strugling, with a 3.5% unemployment rate.

  There's plenty of Japanese porn, and you can thank the FED. for poluting the world .

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:52 | 6005305 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

Not to worry, an imperialist nation of over 1 billion sits a small sea away.

Fri, 04/17/2015 - 21:57 | 6005318 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

why dont they just print people under the age of 65?

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 00:46 | 6005636 COSMOS
COSMOS's picture

That would be robots, and they are making them better and better.  Printable versions coming to you real soon.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 01:53 | 6005715 TeraByte
TeraByte's picture

A painful economic adaption to this permanent demographic change is a far more feasible option than increasing population on the over populated islands.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 06:29 | 6005866 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Their population is too large for such small islands anyway. Even if it halves it will still be too many. We have about 4.5 million on about the same land area and it's just comfortable.

Robots will replace most human labour within 20 years so I doubt the aging demographic will be a problem.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 07:59 | 6005930 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Let's help Japan out by sending them our FSA.

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 09:11 | 6006007 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

To be 65 means, of course, that you were born on or before 1950.

Given what happened to Japan between 1942 & 1945, this statistic seems impossible.  

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 10:15 | 6006046 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Japan at least holds their own Debt including over $1.2244 trillion worth of U.S. government securities.

it is definately NOT Japan we should worry about...nor China or even Europe.

It is the USA - the too big to fail Empire of the USA -

that is about to run out of excuses for it's fuck-ups over the last 70 years or so...

unless they want to start WWIII the US and NATO should get the fuck out of Europe!

Japan ownes their Debt-

the US, like cheap whores are Debt-slaves to Japan and China.

trying to fuck up the world with their endless wars,

that's what's left of the US - a fascist warmonger Debt-slave-labour Regime.

the american nightmare of a big fat lie.

WR;)

----------------------------------------------

Move over, Beijing. Japan now owns more U.S. government debt than any other country, ending China's six-year run as the top foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries.

Data from the Treasury Department released Wednesday show that Japan owned $1.2244 trillion worth of U.S. government securities at the end of February, compared to $1.2237 trillion for China.

Closer to home, there's another major buyer of U.S. debt: the Federal Reserve. At last count the central bank owned around $2.5 trillion worth of Treasuries, up from around $800 billion at the end of 2007.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/15/news/economy/japan-china-us-debt-treasury/

posted from cnn by WR;)

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 13:34 | 6006513 Element
Element's picture

 

 

If you want to know if a doomer made the graph just look at the axis max and min values.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 19:14 | 6009481 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Not much of a problem.  This is their Post War Baby Boomer Gen getting Older.  They're making provisions to support more incentives for couple to bear children; but there are concerns in the number of divorces and Single Parent Households (especially Mothers) on the rise.

Since many Wives "retire" when they get married or bear children, the Labor Force should be augmented by their return.  More and More.  Work arrangements are getting flexible; and many are looking at the Danish and Swedish Models for one.

They need to "Gird their Loins"; and take charge of their own National Defense / Foreign Policy.   Being the Peacenik Vassal of the USA doesn't do anyone any good for the Long Term.  Just lets the USA_MICs make money and USA_Troops die as they defend JPN Interests; but more likely - JPN Troops and People will suffer as they get dragged into USA's Regime Change Campaigns.

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