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Is May 9 The Grexit Date?
Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Yes, more Greece, ever more Greece. Well, the focus is still very much there. It’s not the only topic, obviously, China warrants interest too, certainly with things like Tyler Durden quoting Cornerstone Macro as saying China’s true economic growth rate was just 1.6% in Q1 2015, not the official government number of 7%. Never trust anyone, especially a government, that consistently meets or beats its predictions. With housing prices falling the way they have, -6% or thereabouts, and over 70% of Chinese private investment in real estate, it’s hard to see how a 7% GDP growth number could pass scrutiny. Sure, there’s the stock market bubble, but even then.
But for now back to Athens. Or Washington, actually, where Yanis Varoufakis finds himself. From what we can gather on his schedule, Varoufakis has (or has had) meetings with Obama and Lagarde on Thursday, and with Mario Draghi, Jack Lew and Wolfgang Schaeuble on Friday.
Also on Friday, he’s meeting sovereign debt lawyer Lee Buchheit, who’s a partner at New York law firm Cleary Gottlieb [..Steen & Hamilton], and has helped restructure debt for various countries. The Guardian, back in 2013 (how times have changed!), portrayed Buchheit as the ‘fairy godmother to finance ministers in distress’:
This is the man who stands up to the vulture funds – so named because they buy up the debt of desperately poor countries in order to chase them through the courts for repayment. So it is something of a surprise to meet a slight, mild-mannered lawyer, with more than a whiff of academia about him.
He insists he does not make a moral judgement in choosing who he acts for, but rather enjoys working for the debtor nations. “It’s just more fun,” he says. “If you represent the lender, your client is tiresomely saying things to you like, ‘Why don’t they just pay us the money back?’ When you’re on the debtor side, you can say, ‘If you want to get it back, why did you give it to us?’“
In view of that last quote, it may be wise to once again reiterate that only about 8% of the bailout funds Athens is now on the hook for, actually went to Greece; the other 92% was used to save major European and American banks. As I said before, this has been a political decision, not an economic one. In that vein , we can take a look at the following from John Ward at the Slog, dated March 26:
At this link is an official EU release whose sole concern is the subject of ‘contingent liabilities’ entered into by EU member states. [..] the EU release in this instance contains some blockbuster facts….and adds another piece to the eurozone jigsaw of hypocritical mendacity. Contingent liabilities are often referred to as Shadow Debt: if you’re lucky, they won’t become an eventuality. But as the EU table shows, given the parlous nature of the ezone banking sector, every one of the liabilities is a racing certainty.
We’ve all been asking why Germany ignored the EC bailin directive last week and bailed out a small Bavarian Bank. The answer is simple: not to do so would’ve been illegal under BundesRepublik law, because Berlin had promised so to do. On this basis, while at first sight German national debt is a ‘mere’ 70% of GDP, add the promises it has made to its banks, and the number comes in at a horrific 222%. Not far behind comes the Netherlands with a similar ‘official’ national debt at 73% of GDP. But the contingent liabilities are 115%…making a pretty nasty mountain of 188%.
The Number One and Number Two top contingent liability millstones in the EU are – by miles – Germany and the Netherlands. Now let me see…who are the two chaps working hardest to stop the Greeks and their contagious banks from going their own way? Why, none other than German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, and Dutch finance minister Jeroen René Victor Anton Dijsselbloem. The third prong of Troika2 is of course the ECB’s Italian Mario Draghi. Without any contingencies at all, Italy’s national debt is 132.6% of GDP. Add its 45.5% of contingents, and this too adds up to 178.1% of GDP.
Before you know it, things are no longer what they seem. If you were Lee Buchheit, you might want to argue that Greece is being thrown to the lions and the wolves because Germany and Holland bailed out their bankrupt banking systems, and vowed to keep doing it.
That would make it very hard to imagine them saving Greece today, since to do that, they would risk their own banks, which they bailed out with trillions of their own taxpayers’ money. It would be political suicide. It’s much easier to tell those taxpayers that it’s Greece that’s at fault, not their own heroic leaders (I say heroic because that’s how Bernanke portrays himself in his ‘Courage to Act’ fictional fluff).
So when, oh when, could the Grexit come? Daniel Roberts at Raas Consulting thinks he might have part of the answer:
Why The Grexit Is Inevitable – and some singing PIGS
One thing in common for almost all of my Pinewood International Schools (TiHi to some) class of ’78 is that we left. Many still live in Greece and in Thessaloniki or have returned, and they are closest to the pain. The real pain of the past decade, that has destroyed wealth and hope. Unemployment is running at levels not see in Europe since after the war, and at levels that encouraged the socialist-fascist civil wars of the 1930s. Those did not end well.
But that does not explain why the Grexit is inevitable, and why it will happen very soon.
1) This is what the Greek people voted for. No, they did not vote to stay in the Euro, they voted for the party that said it would reduce the debt and meet pension obligations. The Greek people and voters are not stupid. They knew this could only happen by either the rest of Europe bailing out Greece again, or by leaving the Euro.
2) The Greek people know perfectly well that Europe is not going to bail them out, because to do so will only set everyone up for the next bailout.
3) The Greek people, and the rest of Europe, know full well that the debt will never be repaid, and that the Troika are now acting as nothing better than the enforcers of loan sharks.
4) Syriza knows that it had six months before the voters would throw them out, and once out, Syriza would never come back.
5) The Greeks needed to show “good faith” in actually attempting to negotiate a resolution with the Troika. This has now been done, and is failing.
6) The demand for reparations from Germany is designed not to actually extract the reparations, but to anger the Germans to the point that they will block any compromise that Syriza would have been required to accept.
The Greek government, elected by a battered and exploited Greek people, has been establishing the conditions that will give them the moral high ground (in the eyes of their voters) needed to actually leave the Euro. Having set the conditions, when will it happen? I’m still guessing May 9th. Why? Greece will leave the Euro, and they will do it sooner than later. They’ve made the April payment, but simply do not have the money for the May or June payments, and they cannot pass the legislation required by Europe and the Germans and stay in power. That gives us a late May or June date. So why earlier?
Capital flight. Imposing currency controls will be a fundamental element of any Grexit. Accounts will be frozen, and any money in accounts will be re-denominated in New Drachmas. Once the bank accounts are unfrozen, the residual, former Euros will now be worth whatever the New Drachma has dropped to, and the drop will be significant, over–correcting to the downside. Once it is accepted that the Grexit is coming and there will be no last minute deal, and with memories of Cyprus too fresh in every Greek’s mind, the money will flow out of the country. Not just corporate money (most of which is probably off-share already) but any remaining personal money in bank accounts. So Greece has to move before the coming Grexit is perceived as inevitable, and the money starts to flow out.
Weekend event. When the Grexit happens, it will be on a weekend. The banks will be closed, parliament will be called into emergency session, and a packet of laws will be passed. As this needs to be on a Saturday to avoid wholesale capital flight the moment that parliament is called into session, were it a weekday. This leaves only a few possible dates. And where there are few possible dates, I’m punting on the earlier date, so earlier in May. And looking at the calendar, that leaves us with May 2nd, 9th or 16th. My own guess is that the 2nd is too soon, and the 16th is too late. That leaves me guessing May 9th.
The top graph on the left side of my essay shows all Greek payments due until September. It comes down to about €13 billion in the next 5 months. The country is desperately waiting for a last €7.2 billion bailout tranche the lenders won’t pay out, but it wouldn’t even make that much difference. So when will the drama come to an end? Turning to the second graph, we see specifics. The next payments are:
• April 17 and 20: a combined total of €273.5 million in interest payments to the ECB.
• May 1: €195.1 million to the IMF.
• May 12: €744.9 million to the IMF.
It’s hard to see how Greece can even attempt to make that last payment. Let alone the €1.61 billion due in June (numbers on both graphs don’t add up exactly), or the billions after that.
The big questions concern not just the difference between on the one hand, economic issues and on the other, political ones. Syriza doesn’t have the mandate to take Greece out of the eurozone. That is a huge point. But neither does it have the mandate to give in to the troika’s insistence on pensions cuts. At a certain moment, it may come down to what can be explained to the Greek people, and how well it can be explained. This explanation will almost certainly have to come after the fact, since holding a referendum pre-Grexit would carry far too much potential risk of uncontrolled demolition of the entire Greek economy and banking system.
Tsipras and Varoufakis are not the most enviable people out there at the moment. They have hard choices to make. Still, in the end, running a society, a nation, or a union of nations, cannot be just a matter of balancing your books. That can never be your bottom line. You’re talking about real people, not mere entries in a ledger. Schaeuble and other European politicians keep bragging about the ‘success’ of Greek government policies before Syriza came to power, even as it’s been well documented that many Greek children go hungry and people have no access to health care. How is that a success?
That attitude may be the most valuable argument Syriza has available to it in its upcoming discussions with its voters. Whether these discussions take place before or after a Grexit is hard to say at this point. But Daniel Roberts’ reasoning towards a May 9 event certainly has some logic to it. We may still hope that the troika doesn’t put Syriza into a position of an impossible fork in the road, but right now it doesn’t look good, it looks like they’re getting ready to sacrifice Greece on their pagan altars.
To top off the cynicism involved Bloomberg runs an article today entitled Germany: Has Any Country Ever Had It So Good?. At the same time, a few hundred miles to the south east, children don’t have enough to eat. The European Union sure is a great place to be. What a success story! Pity it’s about to end.
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Tsipras goes to Moscow and they don't like it.
Tsipras will return to Moscow again on 9 May to attend ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the great patriotic war.
Powerful influential people have erected a structure of financial interdependence which they have ceased to be able to understand. If we leave it to the elites to fix it they will inevitably fail because there is no possiblity of considering the consequences of their actions in such a complex system; but if it is left to the people the results will be even worse, as people give themselves up to the first demogogue who offers a palatable solution, even if it makes no sense whatsoever.
The best we can hope for is a relatively soft landing.
~"Is May 9 The Grexit Date?"~
I would have thought May 1st much more appropriate. Somebody's getting the pole, er..., shaft. Might as well dance around it.
Ironic to think that May 1st is celebrated as International Workers Day in the rest of the world because of the Haymarket Affair in Chicago.
It would be a real irony if Athens breaks away from nazi Brussels on the 9th of May, a day still widely known throughout Europe as The Day of Victory Against Fascism.
Fuck you Raul.
"Is May 9 The Grexit Date?"
Well, if you name enough dates, eventually you will be correct of course.
Although it's good to be informed about what's happening in the world, quite honestly I think it's much better to concentrate on what comes AFTER a collapse, instead of guessing on which particular date the collapse might happen.
All we know for sure about 9. May, is that it's a Saturday, and the sun will shine in Athens. Opa!
The Greeks don't jump ship till they have a lifeboat. Until then, it's "Keep calm and enjoy the music on the ship's deck."
May 1st seems much more logical - its a Bank Holiday in Greece, so allows for a 3 day weekend to start distributing drachma and freezing bank accounts.
The best we can hope for is a relatively soft landing.
There will be no soft landing.
Some report that the price value of all durable goods in the world, manufactured from the dawn of civilization and existing today, amounts to roughly $100 Trillion.
A derivative is just a paper promise, a claim, on the durable good. The paper claims on those $100 Trillion worth of durable goods is about $1.5 Quadrillion, or $1500 Trillion.
A derivative is NOT AN ASSET. It is a LIABILITY. The true assets are the durable goods. In and of itself it is worse than worthless when the promise is not honored, when the borrower defaults, as it gives one a false sense of VALUE, which means UTILITY.
It would take the production of 15 World Civilizations to cover the promises of future goods made by the derivatives market. The are many multiples of claims made upon the same goods. How many rehypothcated goods are there?
Only one in fifteen will have a seat in this game of musical chairs when the music stops. (That is why the top 10% are fighting for assets.) Most will end up with nothing as a result of their life long labor.
When Greece exits it will begin a chain of events that will take the entire Western Civilization's Financial System into insolvency. The Credit Default Swaps were a payment for an insurance policies which were never meant to be honored. It was just an engineered method to where large banks could steal money.
This will be spectacularly catastrophic and there is no hope whatsoever.
And there is not one damned thing that you can do about it....NO...NOT ONE.
Most are blissfully unaware and are living in a fantasy land.
The Octopus keeps trying to climb back on Greece and continue to inject it's poison of debt. Greece gasping and suffering reaches for Russia only to see the Octopus tighten it's grip even more!
Who will save her! Does Putin Care?!
No, Putin cares not.
Russia just another elite branches...
Not true, he cares about any political advantage he might gain or lose. He doesn't really need to do much, just enough to screw up the EU's plans.....
Yes, he does. Russia may gain huge geopolitical advantage especially in the East Mediterranean and that brings panic to the Western clowns.
The first thing they should try is having their central bank print up whatever billions in Greek Euros necessay to pay off their debts and then do so. Why should Brussels determine how much a sovereign gov't can print? Fuck em.
Will Goldman sacks representation be present also?
How about past Greek administration officials, who allowed all this to happen in the 1rst place?
Well if Greece sets themselves up as a tech IPO with nothing of value to sell, GS will be on it like flies on shit.....
I think either GyroFlix or FaceFalafel will be the next big thing.
Long GynoFlix and FiatFalafel.
Careful guys, your wandering dangerously close to usable... :-)
Exit already! We have heard this for years now. The Eurocrats keep coming up with last minute bailouts to save face.
Not gonna happen until absolutely all the blood has been squeezed out of this turnip.
I think "Buchheit" is pronounced as "Bullshit" in a very thick German accent.
This Buchheit sounds like a riot to work with. "If you wanted to get it back, why did you give it to us?"
Why didn't I think of this?
If NATO nations lean towards Putin will it be called puto
Putato?
If I saw that list of payments..and it was mine...I would be buying a nailgun......that is a joke and how they got that much in debt is stupid....really stupid...the people that made the loans deserve to lose too....stupid...just really stupid...
They were all hoping to get some of those beautiful Greek islands for pennies. which still may happen..
Unpossible as long as Syriza governs.
Here in Detroit anyone can get a 125% loan for a ghetto house.
Among the details:
Loans will be at below-market fixed rates in 15- or 30-year terms and will be offered only to people buying a home they plan to live in.
Loans will have no down payment, closing costs or fees.
Borrowers' credit scores will not be considered, but home buyers must be employed or have a steady income and be current for 12 months on existing bills. Those who aren't current are offered financial counseling to improve their payment histories
They should bulldoze all of detroit and turn it into a potato farm...
I saw a photo of Detroit city council. Thought it was a Kool and the Gang reunion concert.
"but home buyers must be employed"
Well that rules out about 90% of Detoilet then. Unless day be employed by da gub'mint.
Odious Debt, who's DEFAULT is this?
Isn’t Earth boring…
Greece is similar to the U.S.’ economic collapse. It is always pushed out…. 6 months.
Last fall they said this spring. This spring turns into this fall….
We have had about 12 “last popes” too.
Black men get killed selling loosey’s while White men land gyrocopters on the White House and live to tell everyone.
The 'news' could be 1975 or 2015.
So, any other day other than May 9th.
May 9th is when Germany fell in WWII...I bet Greece does it that day too...just to remind the Germans who is the boss....or so they think....they they have to turn to their own people and say you are going to starve to death....thanks for voting for me...
No matter, No way in hell they will survive June. ITs OVA
And I am sick of listening to this for the last eight years. Which one of you little stinking pigs is next. Its butchering time
You bankers deserve every loss you incur with your non- existant lending standards, but to continue to think that the populations of these countries are still liable is insanity. Reality sucks.
"You bankers deserve every loss you incur with your non- existant lending standards"
While I agree with you in that banks/banksters should suffer loss...They will not, as always it will be passed off on to the backs of taxpayers!
Can we just say that a Grexit is likely, here are debt service payment dates so they are possible dates of default and sit back and watch. I am just a little sick of hearing: 'this is the day'
All there is now is the verbal roll out....
Italy back in focus on back of Grexit Fears.
Market has woken up to the state of the Italian economy; high debt and extremely lackluster growth: unfavorable developments vis a vis unit wage/labour costs, dwindling share of global trade, weak domestic demand, and unemployment back up in February with rise to 12.7%.
Moral hazard from Grexit, which may also see Italy exit the EZ, now seen by many as a sufficient catalyst for a last minute deal on Greek debt.
It could be said the worldwide collapse began with Greece, but in reality, systemic problems began long before, with the introduction of CDS and other dubious items of investment and insurance.
With Bath House Barry and Reggie promoted to the 'Heads' of the UN, the world mechanism of debit cards was introduced.
Under Zionist tutelage, order was restored, despite the vast loss of human life.
Gay relationships were made mandatory to reduce the world population.
Barry and the First Citizen were the example for all to follow.
You could also use Lehman in place of Greece..
China’s true economic growth rate was just 1.6% in Q1 2015, not the official government number of 7%.
And the US unemployment rate is really 23% not the offical goverment lie of 5.5%.
Goldman Sachs should be there shortly to recook the books.
All for the greater UNION.
Greece ain't goin nowhere.
Just noise and indignations that will ultimately culminate into...nothing. The EU will continue to sink and America will let it as that is our only upside right now. Of course precipitating this policy will ultimately bring us down as well, but since when has economics been a long play? They can't predict two weeks out much less the future of the world economy. Of course there are those instrumental in this farce who are clapping all the way, but for the idiots starring in this production, they are simple dupes.
In the end, either by economic forces or military ones, we will see the drive for a single world government continue. The crisis's we see building on all sides are forces that will impose the gravitational collapse that makes us into the red dwarf and ultimately black hole, where nothing, not even light, can escape.
We may think that with so many disparate perspectives that no single government could rule us, but to do so is to discount the fear and greed that ultimately drives us all. Look at what Saddam was able to achieve with the use of fear and greed. The same with most other tyrannies. The famed USSR encompassed a huge diversity and might well have been able to sustain it if not for their competition with America.
Just sayin.
OR
All of those options/derivatives/credit swaps/CONfidence votes have been played, and now everyone is phucked..
yeah, sure, Raul
here: "This is what the Greek people voted for. No, they did not vote to stay in the Euro, they voted for the party that said it would reduce the debt and meet pension obligations. The Greek people and voters are not stupid. They knew this could only happen by either the rest of Europe bailing out Greece again, or by leaving the Euro. "
while here: "Syriza doesn’t have the mandate to take Greece out of the eurozone. That is a huge point."
then you go and advice against a referendum on the matter, "...since holding a referendum pre-Grexit would carry far too much potential risk of uncontrolled demolition of the entire Greek economy and banking system." (btw, why? how? is there anything "markets" can really do, at the moment? but I digress)
while before you write: "At a certain moment, it may come down to what can be explained to the Greek people, and how well it can be explained. This explanation will almost certainly have to come after the fact..."
but here it's one of the best: "The demand for reparations from Germany is designed not to actually extract the reparations, but to anger the Germans to the point that they will block any compromise that Syriza would have been required to accept."
and the cherry on the top: "...even as it’s been well documented that many Greek children go hungry and people have no access to health care"
this last one makes me a bit angry at you, Raul. There, you are talking of a lack of Greek social spending. At that point I have to ask: what is Varoufakis budgeting instead of feeding hungry children? Who is Tsipras hiring instead of feeding hungry children? Oh, and is that specialized legal advice... for free?
no
"it may be wise to once again reiterate that only about 8% of the bailout funds Athens is now on the hook for, actually went to Greece; the other 92% was used to save major European and American banks"
Where did the original loan proceeds go?
The banks were being paid back for loans they had previously made - but the cash from the original loans had to go someplace.
I can only guess that the original loan was to the Greek government - so to say that only 8% went to Greece is a fucking lie - isn't it?
I take out a mortgage for $500K - a year later I go to a second bank and do a refi -
Second bank pays the $500K mortgage off and gives me an additional $40K.
Now I can't pay back the second bank - can I complain that I only got 8% of the loan proceeds and the rest just went to a bank?
The author is on the right track:
I don't see any other way which could be more legitimate, or as democratic.
Sounds like you are giving the Greek voters a choice between a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UthMHjoNyjA
My Small Emaciated Greek Divorce,
34 years of marriage with EU, thrown out just like that!!!!
No warning or nothing???
Is it someone else???
It's me isn't it??
Do ya wanna go halfsies on the assests??
How about one for the road??
I'm taking the dog with me.
Please be May 9th....
1) From 1981 to 2004, Greece received in Grants and Cheap Loans 2.5 times its GDP (world record). It achieved bankruptcy.
2) The last bailout of Greece, was the largest in the history of the world (upwards of 150 billion euros).
Still bankrupted, and now they say "oh, we' re so innocent and the EU is bad".
Bullshit. The current government staged a counter-protest against the protest of miners yesterday, who were defending their right to work (work in the private sector is a sin in Greece, even with good contracts for a French company).
At some point you need to stop acting "too much against the 'system'", and also differentiate between the good guys who get abused, and the crooks who had it coming.
PS. The majority of the Greek population is indeed a victim, but you are trying to justify croocked politicians and "youtube economists" like Varoufakis.
The government staged a counter protest. LOL
Eldorado Gold is not French it's Canadian. Since you seem to not know what the fuck you're talking about, we have to assume the rest is made up bullshit as well.
Wake me when its over
It would be nice if Grexit stories would go away, just like Bitcoin stories have for the most part.
Another in a long line of shining socialist/marxist/communist success stories to throw on the wood(shit)pile! EU = cesspool of corrupt delusional autocratic meglomania!
This is a warning to the rest of the world who are 'ruled' by the same type of disfuncional & dangerous 'visionaries!' SOCIALISM KILLS! It is the agent of pain, suffering & death!
May 9th? Isn't that Cinco de Mayo day?
http://geopoliticainternazionale.blogfree.net/?t=5112242#cut
Article ... Ucraina, USA, NATO, CIA ... Italy, Norway, Finland !!!
I don't get it, why doesn't Greece just print it's own wealth? /sarc
It might be time to hang a few politicians in the town square. Don't matter which ones. Just pick 3 or 4 for starters and then track down the 'social visionaries' after!
Greece is just a convenient red herring for whatever they want to distract you from
It is called,"I'll show me!"
Greece is in the fucking mess they allowed.
Yesterday it was reported that Schäuble was working on a plan to keep Greece in the Euro after bankruptcy. Today it is reported that the EU is getting cold feet, a Grexit threatens all. The posturing seems to be gone. Everyone is getting down to work.
http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/04/17/eu-bekommt-kalte-f...
Is it the "demolition" part, or the "uncontrolled" part that everyone's afraid of?