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This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com,
So the fundamental case for a 20 year bull run as BMO is calling for and certainly many other banks seem to be onboard with that is not looking great YTD. In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged. And so I feel its a worthwhile exercise to have a look at the technicals. Thing about the technicals is that you can cherry pick any baseline point to really make any case, good or bad. But if we take a look at a time period that encompasses several cycles we negate our ability to cherry pick the baseline and we can be much more confident in our overall analysis.
So what I’ve done is taken a two decade period of S&P pricing which encompasses several cycles. Mid 1990′s was a market mid cycle having recovered from the short recession of the early 1990′s but before things really began heating up in the late 1990′s. If we just have a gentle look at the chart we see we’ve had a couple large cycles with fairly extreme booms and subsequent busts. Currently we are in the midst of the third boom which has taken us to new all time highs. Now even a 5 year old can look at the chart and say at some point this thing has a large down turn, same as it always does. That’s easy to see and not many will argue it. But as so many bulls remind us we could have said the same thing about this chart a year ago and we’d have missed out on significant returns. Very true. So the key is then figuring out where the down turn begins. I know I know that’s the kind of stuff you have to go to biz school for eh. Ok so let’s first have a look at the easy chart.
So pretty simple. Two full cycles and into the third which doesn’t tell us much. Let’s add some markers to see if we can’t pick up on some technical cues.
So what we’ve done is run a 2.5 standard deviation Bollinger Band (BB) using a 100 period moving average looking at monthly returns because we are interested long cycle technical cues. We’ve also run Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) using 20 periods. What we find is actually quite notable. During the tech bubble cycle we saw the S&P rise to the upper BB where it tracked the upper band for some time. During that same period we saw the RSI move above 70. Now as the market peaked we saw the S&P move below the upper BB and we also saw a decline in RSI. What is very interesting is that the point where RSI dropped below 70 is the point the tech bubble burst and sent S&P into a free fall. The market continued to sell until the RSI dropped below 30 at which point the market stabilized and reversed higher.
This took us into the start of the credit bubble cycle. Here the RSI move up very quickly and plateaued just below 70 for several years during which time the S&P moved up but never quite made it to the upper BB. Then in 2007 the RSI moved above 70 but then quickly reversed back down below the upper band. Interestingly again the RSI dropping below the upper band seemed to trigger the bursting of the credit bubble as we saw S&P again move into free fall. Then here too we saw the market stabilize as the RSI moved through the bottom band.
And again this brought us into the latest Fed bubble. Now during this latest cycle the RSI moved up but bounced off the upper band a few times without actually breaking through 70. At the same time the S&P moved higher but with quite heavy volatility. Eventually we saw the RSI move up and break through the upper limit. It was about the same time that the S&P traded higher to the upper BB where it tracked for some time. However, at the end of November 2014 the S&P started to dislocate and moving down below the upper BB. And then ominously January of this year we saw the RSI also move below the upper RSI band.
Remember this technical signaled the popping of the past two bubble cycles. Now February saw the RSI move back above the upper band but March moved back down below. I would watch this very carefully now. I would venture to say if April remains below the upper RSI band we could very well have moved into the latest and perhaps greatest period of wealth destruction. It is time to protect those assets.
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Pearls before Swines
Could that down slope be a bit watery or wet please? I would hate to see your ass get burnt sliding down.
Twas the crashes before QE to infinity, ZIRP, and, "Whatever it takes." The rules have changed.
technical analasis .......witchcraft....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
The problem isn't technical analysis, the problem is central planning. Period. Where to find the balance? - look at the central planners and trade accordingly. So far they seem willing to let the markets slide a bit before stepping in AGAIN. And it may be PLANNED that way, to give the excuse for the next round of monetary destruction (QE).
The problem isn't technical analysis, the problem is.....technical analysis works when there are millions of participants. doesnt work when 5 banks manipulate the market. i love TA but when 5 banks run the world i dont put much trust in stats and numbers.
Really nice color choice on the chart- really surprised anyone looks at this stuff seriously anymore...BTFD
Baseline my butt…
I like the proposition and analysis, but
As we ponder over the goat entrails.. we might be missing some basic premise…
Like maybe.. SOMEBODY KILLED THE F’N GOAT.
... wait a minute. When did you get a goat?
it's a ram actually
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a4/Baphomet.png/22...
So like, what's with all you English Major types here then?
And "Ram" is a truck you mook!
The last 2 times these graphic illustrations were published, 'THE LAWNMOWER MAN' was playing in theatres!
Pearl River with Floating Swines...the latest Asian Fusion combo dinner!
I just sold my weekend car, and proceeds go into stacking.
Seems like the timing is right.
The age-old adage, "There is a SUCKER born every minute seems appropriate here in regards to your nigtard comment. Good luck nigtard...
Exactly. TA is essentially a mass psychological or crowd behavioral predictor of market action, which is based on the reaction of a critical mass of participants. But today, we have HFTs and Central banks driving market action, driving their agendas, not reacting to market action.
Your statement is illogical.
HFT algorithms were developed by humans who are psychological beings.
Central banks are operated by humans who are psychological beings.
Psychological beings participating in the market react irrationally to market action.
Market action is thus the result of irrationality.
Irrationality is thus the result of market action.
This irrationally based feed back control loop creates in massive instability
Massive instability results in catastrophic failure
Meaning we are completely fucked!
Of course there is that saying "It's always different this time... until it isn't."
they were blaming HFT algos for the crash in 1987 ... nothing ever changes....
Right on the mark thats why I like VIRT the new HFT IPO if you can't "licem" "joinem"
ETSY upstaged VIRT on first day trading. Would not one think that VIRT would be a 5 bagger if ETSY could be a 2 bagger? I mean - we all know and love HFT/Algos.
"i love TA but when 5 banks run the world i don't put much trust in stats and numbers."
Back in the Iron Curtain days, their Central Planners also manipulated their markets, cooked the books, owned the Media and spied on their people. We know know how that ended, don't we?
The difference between the People there and 'Mericans, is that their people didn't delude themselves, and knew what was going on, and created a Parallel Economy (barter, black market) to improve their survivability. 'Mericans are as clueless as ever. No wonder they keep taking it up the rear end -- figuratively, politically and economically speaking.
Open Disclosure: I'm long on ink, security paper and industrial printing presses.
Technical Analysis: As long as the banks can print moar' money its stawks to da' moon.
One problem with technical analysis in today's environment is that it fails to predict in advance when the central banks are going to press the buy button, which is the only thing that's been propping up this lipsticked pig since 2008.
"The problem isn't technical analysis,..."
The problem is collecting one's potential proceeds in nominal confetti so debased as to be useless for wiping one's ass.
with CB's supporting indexes in mulitple market they can create the technical signals they want - and delude and put to sleep those that follow technicals
the system is broken for signals of all kinds especially economic metrics
technical analysis also assumes the market remains fundamentally the same in terms of its variables
using any sort of trend from a pre-QE market to predict a QE market throws that out the window
using data from 30 or 40 years ago is hilarious.. the market has alsmost changed more in the last 5 years than the previous 50 combined
Don't worry, just change the methodology...
http://www.joshuakennon.com/sp-500s-dirty-little-secret/
yeah, there you go again Thad...using charts an' shit.....
Janet's GOT this, baby...
This time...IS different™
2015.75 - When Martin Armstrong's ECM (the basis for Aranofsky's Pi?) lines up with the end of the Shemitah, you gotta figure something's up. If nothing else, "superstitious" Jews will hit the exits - but I don't believe there will be nothing else.
And just who else, but the "superstitious Jews", controls large investments in the Ponzi Stawk Market?
If they want their crash to validate the Shemitah then they will have it. It will be a SELF FULFILLING PROPHECY.
You'd be wise to front run that....which will also help fulfill the prophecy.
Or you can lose massively also because you are "rational" and not buy into superstition.
Ummm,
In mid-1999, the market also pulled away from the upper BB while the RSI dropped below 70.
Then, the market proceeded to make new highs for an entire year before the crash.
It seems to me the timing of Thad's 'Technical Indicator' is a bit suspect...
Exactly, according to Michael Harris’ great work on his Price Action Lab blog, RSI is simply correlated to daily price changes and offers no useful predictive information regarding “overbought” signals beyond 1-2 days forward.
For those who like to dig into the weeds, here’s a link to the recent “Correlation of Relative Strength Index With Price Changes”
http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/04/relative-strength-index-corre...
Timing is of utmost importance... however you don't need to be a hero and be short on day#1 ,,, you can wait for it to become a solid trend first. Stay liquid and be patient.
I freelance over th? internet and earn about 80-85$ an hour. I was without a job for 7 months but last month my paycheck with big fat bonus was $15000 just working on my computer from my home for 5-6 hours. Here's what i have been doing... www.globe-report.com
Sir chilli sauce
BLOW ME (sans chili peppers)
I work with a permabull. thinks he's clever by buying energy at the bottom. and in a normal normal that would be a great pick, but in our new normal you better have that energy in some kind of storage facility (kidding). also thinks he'll retire in a year from his outstanding market analysis.
these guys just don't get it. things have changed.
A US recession would cause EURO short covering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4wcC2szApI
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
Here,...let me give it a shot.
(Climbs to roof top)
This time its different!!
Because you know it is!
Technically speaking, worse IS different.
It'd be worth paying attention to if there was actually a market.
The PPT has been around since Reagan, it didn't help Pets.com did it? These phoney market moves are scripted to violently shake the apple tree or put another way, big boys playing "fire sale", consolidation is all they have left since the consumer has tapped out. I mean you can't just raid a pension fund with two guy's a van and a revolver. Look, the same people that say that the Fed has the markets back are the same people that will tell you the banking cabal (The Fed) don't give a rats ass about the masses, you only get to choose one or the other.
"Look, the same people that say that the Fed has the markets back are the same people that will tell you the banking cabal (The Fed) don't give a rats ass about the masses, you only get to choose one or the other."
They don't give a rats ass, but they look a whole lot better if the stawk market is going UP not down. They won't face the pitchforks if the market is going up. You think the idiot on the street bitching about the high cost of food and fuel is shaking his fist at the Fed and its policies? No. He's blaming the merchant or the farmer---the gougers of society. He will call his legislator and the legislator will vote for price controls on the merchant before he ever dreams of doing anything to stop the Fed.
Name the last time the pitchforks came out with a crash....uh huh, never. All you hear is mid level lackeys moaning years later about how their execs made out alright and they got fucked as they unbox another crate of Creamed Corn in their stock boy job.
The storming of the Bastille :)
Add in a California drought with a resultant famine and I think that the elements are in place...
Actually, the people that say that the Fed has the markets back are PINKO FASCIST COMMIES who are traitors to the once great America! Off with THEIR heads!
For the 5th time... I humbly suggest that... just about the only Bellwether you need to pay attention to is...
(a) Global Yields, and (b) the FED'S YIELD. Especially the latter.
When it approaches zero, watch out! Head for the life rafts -- in spite of the band on the ship's deck, playing comfort songs for the doomed masses. Note that the calm allows the Elite to escape unimpeded, before the rest get sucked down by the ship.
Curve fitting comes to mind...
Still too much money being printed, especially Europe and Japan for a major decline.
You can't fill the hole in the side of the Titanic with a wad of chewing gum. This exercise in coordinated printing is designed to be a turtle race to the end until the board gets inverted.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
Ernest Hemingway The Sun Also Rises.
And don't give me this"central banks can't go bankrupt" bull shit, running out of trust is the same thing as running out of money. Argentines central bank literally ran out of paper in the 70's
Technicals are meaningful?
An anticausal system is one particular type of non-causal system. Causal means that the output at time t can be computed without any knowledge of the input at times >t. Non-causal just means not-causal, i.e. you must know some inputs with time >t in order to compute the output at time t. Anticausal means that the output at time t can be computed by knowing the inputs at time >= t, but without any knowledge of the inputs at time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_system
No!
Although the HFT algo writers think they can write (or sell snake oil) anitcausal systems.
Swine is plural. You do not say Swines. Pearls before swine. About the market.... technicals are an idiot's game. They do not apply. Nobody knows where this is going.
Pearlez afore swinez.
..., bitchez.
Whorez!
Swine is the plural of "pig". Unless of course you are talking about fat Inland Empire women at Swine-Mart. Then swines is appropriate.
Fuckerez...Mudder Fuckerez atz thatz.
Swine is plural. You do not say Swines. Pearls before swine. About the market.... technicals are an idiot's game. They do not apply. Nobody knows where this is going.
started at 666, so there has to be some masonic high number. I thought it might be 1998, 3 * 666, but no. 4 * ?
how about 6666 ?
The current top is at 2119. 11 and 9 are satanic numbers, or flip it round we have 911. Cause for concern?
Russian trolls .... are swines !
So do hasbaras . They have been raised like a pig for slaughter .
Well, let's all hope that there isn't a major correction. The Fed and central bankers shot their load in 2008, and have been stroking a limp dick for 6 years, now.
Limp dick? Hell that monster boned the VIX and anyone short anything... for a very long time.
Guys, there are run-on sentences, missing or misspelled words, etc. I am one who thinks that you guys need to start editing better. We are an English-speaking country and this is irritating. You COULD run a spell checker, and grammatical tool, and the number of errors would plunge.
Current example:
"In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged. "
BETTER WRITTEN:
In fact, most perma bulls have SHIED away from even mentioning fundamentals, other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great. but, don’t worry as the Fed is still engaged.
Indeed.
The opening sentence of the article is grammatically incorrect as well as confusing.
[BONUS: DON'T begin every paragraph with the word: "So."]
So like, why not then?
Totally! Whatever. Or something...
Start your own blog then! I'm sure you'll do great. NOW PLEASE SHUT THE FUCK UP.
It all boils down to credibility: If he can't spell and use common grammar correctly, why should I trust his TA? Those weren't complicated sentences nor multi-syllable words that were mangled. Cohesive thought is necessary in the case of written communication and in chart analysis. If the former suffers, the latter is suspect.
I agree, but posting six comments about fucked up grammar is annoying. He smells of trolldom; been here 19 weeks and change. In the last year there has been a cavalcade of ZH discreditors. ZH is not perfect, but it's a breathe of fresh air in a sea of propaganda. If I loathe a blog, I simply do not visit it. Yes, the writing is full of issues, but the article's validity lies in his chart analysis as you pointed out to us.
One gets to pick what they would like to read on ZH. Unlike that brain dead Hannity shooting off his face to anyone in ear shot.
IRIDIUM REBEL...If you had read GW's article about Professional Trolls then you know that they need proper grammar in order for their algorithms to create a response.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-23/propagandists-use-automated-software-spread-disinformation
He may be bitching about the grammar as his bots have been rendered useless.
Just a Heads up. Use poor grammar.
But should be capitalized, Although, it should never start a sentence.
But the but should be captialized, Butthead.
But why naught?
Guys, there are run-on sentences, missing or misspelled words, etc. I am one who thinks that you guys need to start editing better. We are an English-speaking country and this is irritating. You COULD run a spell checker, and grammatical tool, and the number of errors would plunge.
Current example:
"In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged. "
BETTER WRITTEN:
In fact, most perma bulls have SHIED away from even mentioning fundamentals, other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great. but, don’t worry as the Fed is still engaged.
Maybe you should heed your own advice.
Stack On
Yo Yo Yo FACT, perma bulls be shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than ta say dat generally dey aren’t looking great but shit nigga don’t be trip da Fed ho's iz still twerkn sho 'nuff!
"Guys, there are run-on sentences, missing or misspelled words, etc. I am one who thinks that you guys need to start editing better. We are an English-speaking country and this is irritating. You COULD run a spell checker, and grammatical tool, and the number of errors would plunge.
Current example:
"In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged. "
BETTER WRITTEN:
In fact, most perma bulls have SHIED away from even mentioning fundamentals, other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great. but, don’t worry as the Fed is still engaged. "
Dude you obviously have never worked in the industry. Because if you walked into any fking trading room and started barking about grammar being shit you would get punched in the fking lips. And then they would throw your irrelevant useless wannabe fking market guy ass out on the fking street. So until you have a constructive thought shut your fking lips. You're on here pretending like you know something. But you're a fking little squirrel. You know it, your mother knows it and all the girls who laughed and are still laughing at your goofy fking self know it. So fuck off. Get out of your fking mother's basement once in a while and get laid. you'll be less likely to talk shit all the time because you'll have more interesting things to think about. Tough guy. And to all the technical haters.... why read a fking article that clearly is about technicals as per the fking title if you don't believe in technicals??? You are the same fking morons that sniff your buddies fart everytime to see if it stinks. Mindless fking dolts. Jesus where the fuck do you fksticks come from.... assclowns.
You made my day. ;-D That fucking clown would be laughed out of the trading room faster than the Virtu algos that pillage his 401-K.
. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-16/contagion-arrives-european-peripheral-bond-risk-soars#comment-5999295
Thu, 04/16/2015 - 13:12 | 5999295 Kirk2NCC1701
"It's not just Schaeuble that doesn't see any problems"
"It's not just Schaeuble WHO doesn't see any problems". FIFY.
p.s. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/its-official-americans-r-stoopid
Yes they are. They can't even get the basics of Grammar* correct. 'Mericans, you use THAT when talking about THINGS, and WHO when talking about PEOPLE.
The joke is that even "highly educated" people in the US do this -- including Bill Clinton, but he does it to be 'folksy' when speaking to Prols.
* http://www.grammarbook.com/grammar/whoVwhVt.asp
* http://www2.gsu.edu/~eslhpb/grammar/lecture_13/that.html
You really know the place is devolving when Reverse Snobbery is growing, when it's more fashionable to sound 'common' or 'folksy' (i.e. poorly educated or dumb), than educated or smart. Seems to be on the rise on ZH also, alas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opLorI2nLfU
Right. But then, I would also go for "grammatical toolS". Just saying .....
I'm no professor, but the improved versions sucks ass.
quit teasing
They made it levitate on purpose and they will make it crash on purpose. IMF's Lidquidy call is them turing off the lending foucet.
Thing about the technicals is that you can cherry pick any baseline point to really make any case, good or bad.
BETTER written, as the Phrase is wrong:
THE thing about the technicals is that you can cherry pick any baseline point to really make any case, either good or bad.
"BETTER written, as the Phrase is wrong:"
This is horrible English.
"This phrase is incorrect in its written form. It would be better written as such:"
If you're going to be a grammar Nazi, write properly.
"So Bob? How'd you spend your weekend?"
"Well, I poured through a blog checking it's grammar!"
#asshole
ITS grammar - no apostrophe
IT IS grammar. So yours would have an apostrophe. Try a complete sentence, too.
BTW, auto correct fucked that up.
(Why yes, I did end on a preposition.)
Ooops - "pored"
Screw this - I suspect a lot of financial heavy-hitters are NOT English Majors.
That said - I'm more interested in WHAT ZH posters say, than how they say it.
http://grammarist.com/usage/than-then/
B
Oh Jeebus Xmas!
So what I’ve done is taken a two....
BETTER:
So what I will present here is an effort to TAKE two....
So what I’ve done is taken a two....
BETTER:
So what I will present here is an effort to TAKE two....
A couple of things worth noting:
"Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com,"
1) ZH reposts many articles, so you are complaining about someone else's writing, not ZHs.
2) ZH also posts ~30 articles per day, and personally, I would prefer more information if that means the quality of writing is worse. It's an acceptable trade-off IMO.
3) It doesn't really matter.
Is there a fucking echo in here or is it just me..
Is there a fucking echo in here or is it just me..
It's just you.
It's just you.
Let me be clear, there is no Fed equity market put.
William C. Dudley, NY Fed CEO
Bernard M. Baruch College, New York City
December 1, 2014
psst: that means there is and I have the charts to prove it.
"At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained."
Benjamin Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman
March 28, 2007
Bernocchio lies constantly. That was his job and will continue to be his MO - to lie like a rug.
One moar new high and I am out.....promise
Technically, he didn't "lie".
He just deceived, in using enough qualifiers: "seems likely". Seems. Likely. People hear what they want to.
Very good presentation of the technicals. But....
As Lord Keynes -one of the best commodity traders of his day- famously stated:
"The markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent."
This fellow can crow that he was "right" at some point in time. We just don't know when.
Everything is political.
I expect more efforts to monetize that ramp.
There is a US president that has a legacy to keep. As soon as 2016 is over, they will let it crash in one big heap.
This is why things like 'technicals' and 'price discovery' have been broken.
The bankers use crisis to their advantage. Pre elections are perfect times to force the crisis, it gets the politicians to commit to their loyalties. Politicians will do anything to get it off the table since they are on the hook for it. Look at the 08 Mclame/Obama contest, remember them both sitting in high level meetings in the White House.
3rd Q 2015 will fit the bill, President Zero has a pen and a phone.
Bingo!
The Z-elites have a big investment in Obola. As long as he is there - the markets will levitate. Clinton did the same thing.
There is nobody in the market except the FED and the people that control the pensions. You have to call the FED's software developers if you want to know about markets. If you can't reach them there call over to Goldman Sachs because they are the same ones that work over there.
The obligatory: Gold bitchez.
It might be just as effective to study about why animal herds stampede.
Technical analysis doesn't work when nothing is real.
That is, old guidelines don't work.
It absolutely does - at least in minus sum game markets like FX.
Stop trying to predict the market short term. Hold stocks for the long term.
Long term is a relative term. Baby boomers, who most likely hold most stocks, really cannot afford to hold for the long term if they will be needing those funds shortly- say they have no pension and are looking to their portfolios to fill in the gaps social security leaves.
Now when baby boomers do cash out who will replace them? We have generations who are loaded with student debt, under employed, no paid health benefits connected to employment and no pensions.
Once baby boomers start to realize they have to have buyers to realize their gains who knows how orderly or quickly the whole thing will fall apart.
If boomers have been blessed with a longevity gene or are interested in what money they leave to their children they by allmeans ride it out.
What happens to all those pensions that are getting funded based on 7-8% returns?
Then the pensioners will go to Plan B (cat food).
The replacement for Boomers is immaterial because their mutual funds will pay them cash when they sell the funds. Forced redemptions may - will - occur, but the sales function isn't like an ETF or stock. They will cash out.....an aspect not many consider....
Don't kid yourself. Two ninty yearold women in my family are sitting on a couple of million. They won't budge. They are still saving for a rainy day.
Don't make me laugh, my lips are chapped.
nice charts, but we ran up the blue line for 1/2 decade in the 90s.... we only just touched it last year.... this has more to go yet.... we need some real spikes....
They've chosen a republican for the next president. Anything they do will center around that. That means giving us the big fail BEFORE the 2016 election so the masses think they chose the next (republican) president..
A least it's not a Hindenburg-Omen ... I hear those are really bad.
Hocus Pocus.
That said, I still want a crash.
Keep calling the top ZeroHedge. Eventually, for once in the last seven years, you will be right.
Swag just because it doesn't "happen" all in one night doesn't mean this market hasn't already been destroyed.
Its not even a "market" anymore.
Right now its just an centrally planned conduit to pump assets into the economy. Especially to the inner circle.
If you're 1 step ahead of the market they call you a genius. But if you're two steps ahead of the market they call you "crazy".
every thing is like silent heart attacks....the warning keep coming...but the fraudstera running the system ignore it. Then one morning you wake up dead
Oh i'm convinced the collapse will be broadcasted as an overnight event. "The US collapsed overnight".
Problem was last two times they weren't nearly as proficient with outright criminal acts and digital zeros. I have no doubts this is all overpriced garbage, what happens is anyones guess. I personally think they're going to get their asses railroaded.
Many say 12k is a fair valuation. Does that mean crash to 12k and then have a 6 month HFT fuckfest and end up right back where we are now?
Shits getting old.
Well even anal lit fucks couldn't keep Shakespearian speak around forever!
Still processing the full extent of this comment, but so far it sounds fucking hilarious.
this junk is not technical analysis...come on...i could put in those two slopes at any point during the advance...and very obviously it continued to advance.
Here are some bubbles to think about.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/12/20/leveraged-loans-predict-crash/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/24/stocks-could-have-worst-april-since-1970/
Here is how to prepare yourself.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Good luck!
lets think about this for a bit...although they are responsible for letting the mortgage crisis occur through their own greed and that of others...there is a certain logic to their reactionary madness...namely QE and various other money expanding magic.
The rich are in the market also...and for now are content with playing the current trading range, they to wish not to lose their money in a massive crash. This market will not correct massively until they wish it...they are able to contain almost any black swan event or other market mishaps. I think we would see a rather large run-up in stock prices prior to a smart money exit this would occur quickly as they sell into the dumb money rally. I think we are ok for now atleast for the second quarter...we will see how prices react and then one must decide whether the risk reward ratio is tolerable. When it does correct in a large fashion the sell off will be vicious...there won't be an exit strategy, it will move way to fast. So one needs to watch for when the fed gets its balance sheet way low perhaps to 500 to 800 billlion...then their QE gun is reloaded, oil can go way up and trigger a recession fear fueled sell off, so watch the feds cue. I figue 1 to 2 years to clear its balance sheet or perhaps a bit less.
-68% correction
Before the big rise, the market was in a gigantic M/A pattern. Had there not been manipulation, it would've resulted in S&P 450.
Say what you want about t/a, fact of the matter is the FED hires the best in the business. They locate these patterns/possible breakdowns and throw money at them like no tomorrow in order to negate them.
Sadly, things are so fucked up now it's always possible to visit what we would had in the first place. Imagine the aftermath of crashing that far from our current levels, lmao.
The bigger they are the harder they fall.
I'm more bullish than ever.
Sincerely,
Every CFA
Well, if we just keep convincing the sheeple that all of these digital zeros are the real deal, then we'll have bought all of the resources, politicians. and security peeps and we'll stay in the catbird seat!
I'll take "Kick the can down the road some more for $1000" please Alex.
Answer: Team that is in charge of rigging the stock market.
What are the PPT, the Federal Reserve and the Primary Dealers ?
Truly entertaining.
-1? HAHA Rough crowd...
-1 is a badge of honor. -99 is a thumpin'.