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Rise In Traveling Hookers, Depressed Gambling, Booze Sales Bode Poorly For US Economy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Retail sales rounded out their worst 3-month run since Lehman last month and even as April’s print showed the biggest sequential rise in nearly a year, sales still missed expectations affording us the opportunity to point out yet another “since Lehman” moment as retail sales haven’t missed for four consecutive months since the end of 2008. This really shouldn’t come as a surprise to those who are paying attention because as we’re fond of pointing out, America’s “non-supervisory” employees (who make up more than three quarters of the workforce) are suffering from declining wage growth and with wage growth now an almost perfect predictor of consumer spending, one would expect retail sales to take a hit. 

Of course this trend doesn’t just affect the Best Buys and Gaps of the world, it also takes its toll on hookers, liquor stores, drug dealers, and casinos and when sex, drugs, and gambling aren’t selling you can go ahead and kiss your “recovery” hopes goodbye. 

With that in mind we present the following chart which shows that Andrew Zatlin’s Vice Index nearly printed in contraction territory in March and at 100, the index is dangerously close to indicating that America’s spending on “the fun stuff” (to quote Zatlin) looks set to fall. 

Here’s some color from Zatlin:

Vice spending leads the way, both in terms of inclination and ability to spend. If luxury good spending is sensitive to shifts in the economic winds, vice is even more so. One thing that sets it apart from other types of consumer spending (besides being frequently illegal) is that it’s typically a cash-based transaction. You can’t buy pot with a credit card (not yet anyhow). Another distinguishing factor is that vices are not cheap. A prostitute costs almost two days of after-tax wages. Gambling in Vegas is potentially more. The consumer’s stack of money has to be a certain height before they can get on that ride. The vice economy lives and dies according to cash flow; by how much money is burning a hole in the consumer’s pocket…

 

The Moneyball Economics Vice Index is the first index that quantifies these forms of spending. It has been shown to accurately lead consumer spending by at least two months. Right now, it is showing evidence of subdued consumer spending over the past few months.

 

In fact, the Index just slipped to 100. A figure below 100 means that consumer spending is actually contracting. No doubt a lot of the recent sluggishness is weather related, but the trend is undeniable: consumers are spending less on the fun stuff, and that means more belt-tightening is about to occur.

And if you really want to know how bad it is out there, look no further than the traveling hooker indicator:

When Van Halen goes on tour, it’s to greet the fans and boost the paycheck. Similarly, when an escort goes on tour, it’s to press the flesh and get some money. Except, in the business of vice, escorts go touring because the local waters have been fished out.

 

There are several key selling points in the Hookernomics business model which traveling escorts hope to capitalize on:

  • Novelty: “New and Improved” is a standard consumer lure, and it fits the escorting business as much as the toothpaste business.
  • Limited Availability: An escort who announces that they are “visiting and in town for just a few days” is straightforward Sales 101. Create a sense of urgency and exclusiveness.

Tours are an expensive proposition (ahem) for an escort and a general pain in the ass. Travel time, hotels, transportation fees, dining out – costs add up fast. Also the tour is financially risky. There’s no guarantees of profit, which means that the alternative – staying put and fishing local waters – must be even worse. Simply put, escorts go on tour when the phones aren’t ringing enough.

As Zatlin goes on to note, it’s not just prostitution that’s slowing. Spending on gambling and alcohol fell in February as well and if you’re inclined to agree with the notion that trends in cash-based businesses are a good leading indicator when it comes to assessing where consumer spending (and thus the US economy) is headed going forward, you should expect the string of retail sales misses to continue.

Of course the punchline to the whole thing is that just like weakness in the “real” economy, depressed hooker, booze, and gambling sales are also blamed, at least in part, on the weather. 

There’s a theme here. Prostitution slowed in February. Gambling slowed in February. Even drinking alcohol slowed down. According to GuestMetrics (which tracks 10,000 restaurants and bars) boozing at bars was up in January and then contracted in February. The common denominator: bad weather.

 

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Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:47 | 6009742 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

And in the end
The love you take
Is equal to
The love you make
-The Beatles

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:53 | 6009762 max2205
max2205's picture

Tap

and go

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:12 | 6009811 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Booze and gambling, sure, but hookers?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:38 | 6009862 Nemo DeNovo
Nemo DeNovo's picture

LOL, I have told friends for years that you can judge the strength of a locality by the price[s] charged by the escorts on BP or CL, and its 100% TRUTH.  I often use it as a metric in the consulting that I do for a living.  Interesting note is that there has been a steady downward trajectory in poon for pay prices for 5yrs now.

Just my 2c :)

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:36 | 6010017 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The next crash has begun as I posted in the other thread (Chinese equity market behavior) in detail (had a meeting with the wise men today).

As for this topic, look at the numbers reported regarding boat, RV and motorcycle sales for the month of April compared to April last year.

These are all highly discretionary items and unlike the Vice Index, are purchases typically financed, so the discretionary Vice AND Recreational spending sectors are going to tell the take of the devastated and/or scared 96%.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 00:10 | 6010190 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....and yet HOG hasn't been hit...yet. Their European sales must be in the tank.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:39 | 6010021 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

internet porn: econ 101 substitution effect

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:03 | 6010071 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

How much of this price decrease is because of INCREASED SUPPLY?  

Seems like you're seeing a lot more part time hookers - people looking to supplement their income or unemployed looking to make whatever they can.  If you're a recent college grad who can't get a job......

Vegas is seeing a lot of weekend workers flying in from elsewhere - during the week they're teachers or whatevere.  A couple days in Vegas turning tricks can pay for the weekend and provide soem additional (tax free) income.  

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 00:32 | 6010221 HolyfieldsOtherEar
HolyfieldsOtherEar's picture

Prices are rising in many parts of Asia. I heard this from a friend of mine.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 05:34 | 6010395 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

hookers are going down here to!

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 10:04 | 6010667 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I'm waiting for prices to come down enough that some of the best would entertain the idea of being a beloved concubine / nanny for room and board.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 13:01 | 6011188 raywolf
raywolf's picture

interesting... i better allocate a market research budget for that category..... :-)~

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:20 | 6009825 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I think it's just because people are turning away from vice and living more upstanding, moral lives.

Hold on a minute.  I gotta do a line and refresh my drink.  BRB....

OK, all set.  Hey, guys, say hi to my new friend who's helping me post tonight.  Her name is Fantasia.  Or so she says.  For what I'm paying I'm pretty sure I could call her anything I want.

 

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:27 | 6009837 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Uh,... with a name like 'Fantasia' you better check under the hood; 'she' might not be equipped with the standard equipment you're expecting...

 

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:36 | 6009856 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

... not that there's anything wrong with that.

Sorry, I couldn't come up with a good hooker name.  Just roll with it.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:38 | 6009861 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Most common hooker names in California:

Crystal

Amber

Tiffany

Heather

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:40 | 6009870 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Hey, honey, I'm going to call you Tiffany the rest of the night, OK?....."

Yeah, she's OK with that.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:55 | 6009890 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Did she say, "Okay.", or just nod?

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 00:13 | 6010193 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

You obiously did not include Oakland in your survey.....they tend more toward the jewels over there...or East LA where flowers are in vogue.

 

 

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 00:21 | 6010205 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

'Fantasia".....sounds like a name from the Wife Zone Chart on youtube (which I highly recommend to anyone who has not seen it).

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:05 | 6010083 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Try calling her "again" without paying again.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:20 | 6009973 the great rift
the great rift's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:40 | 6010022 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

ah... now we know how you make $7k/month part time

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:06 | 6010085 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

$7K/month is only $84K/year.  Not that impressive.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:23 | 6010118 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

How much to put it in your ass?

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 11:07 | 6010853 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

LOL

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:45 | 6009980 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Gotta revise that Beatles tune for the 21st century ...

 

. . . . . And in the end, the coin you rake
. . . . . is equal to the love you make

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 00:47 | 6010228 garypaul
garypaul's picture

THOSE GIRLS NEED A BAILOUT!!

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:48 | 6009745 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

The handle at the racetracks has been awful in 2015 and that's on top of a weak 2014. Not a good sign at all.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:04 | 6010072 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Racetracks?  Seems like the customer base there is simply dying off.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:52 | 6009749 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Long Moonshine!!!!

 

Here come the revenuers!

If it's got a label, it ain't moonshine!

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:50 | 6009750 db51
db51's picture

I'm waiting for free samples.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:54 | 6009766 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Booze will get you thru times of no hookers better than hookers will get you thru times of no booze.

 

FFFB, kinda!

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:57 | 6009775 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Plus you never (well, usually) have to worry about ingesting someone elses semen........

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:05 | 6009791 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

If you're eating a hooker you might as well, also, be drinking an Irishmans piss as your booze.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:19 | 6009968 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

TPH,

Can I be sick now?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:08 | 6010088 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Yes.  That is one club we can all join.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:41 | 6010160 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I think you might be doing it wrong.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 12:28 | 6011108 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Don't.. get.. BURNED!!!

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:56 | 6009773 stant
stant's picture

Liquidity crisis

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 20:59 | 6009783 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Weren't Congresscritters back home with their families quite a bit in February?

Sayin ;-)

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:06 | 6009794 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Hoe's are ON SALE?!

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:09 | 6009802 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

and men's pants are half off.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 13:03 | 6011189 raywolf
raywolf's picture

buy one hole, get two free.....

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:07 | 6009797 MATA HAIRY
MATA HAIRY's picture

Everybody wants some!

I want some, too!

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:18 | 6009820 OMG
Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:10 | 6009803 Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Booze & drug consumption are immune to 'weather' - in fact inclimate weather boasts sales as folks stay in to celebrate. Typhoon pre stocking were some of my best sales periods (back in the day).

In fact drug dealing is about as pure capitalism as you can get in the old sense of the term.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:13 | 6009805 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

That's why we have the hookers, gamblers and alcoholics for Clinton campaign since slick Billy always supported us.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:13 | 6009813 Make_Mine_A_Double
Make_Mine_A_Double's picture

Bill's .01%er.

He's bangin' 12 year olds on Fantasy Island.
Those aren't in the stats for obvious reasons.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:09 | 6010091 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Because that would bring his average up?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:10 | 6009806 zipit
zipit's picture

Sorry, traveking hookers is as old as hookers.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:43 | 6010167 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Hookers are the most honest women on the planet.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 10:16 | 6010707 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I disagree with that.  I'm not going to down-vote you because I understand where you're coming from, but when I see my wife's joy when she's swarmed with hugs and kisses from my kids, I'm certain there's no extortion in our relationship.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:11 | 6009808 charm12
charm12's picture

Same to you db51 I'm waiting for their sample.

see this <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->how to get likes on facebook

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:17 | 6009817 Thirtyseven
Thirtyseven's picture

Ah. I see what these "since Lehman" people are talking about.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:17 | 6009819 heisenberg991
heisenberg991's picture

BJ's are ten bucks for only one minute so you better cum fast.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:11 | 6010096 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

To paraphrase the great Rodney: 

I got a tattoo on my dick that says, "I love you". 

I showed it to my wife.

She said, "Don't you try and go putting words in my mouth."

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:26 | 6009823 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Some of us are without money and fucked, while others are fucking for money, all because the banksters are fucking us out of our money.

That just about "distills" it.

The banksters need to repay us.

 

"Please tip your guillotine operator."

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:20 | 6009827 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

I knew it was bad before the numbers turned because someone I know who can do lots of different things said everything dried up and a childhood friend who moved to Cali in the 70's and does lots of different type jobs from engineering and setting up ipos from engineering to financing said things had really dried up. Now one can always do taxes so....... And they have money saved and can do things but for them to say things had dried up. I knew Houston was hurting and the oil/gas industry thus they got caught with craines on expansion when things dried up.
Austin is still bustling but the economy here used to suck unless u were a lawyer or worked for ut and when things would get good DC would come kick our pants and we don't have as much military as other cities or Houston with their medical stuff and Dallas is such a trading hub. We r more grass roots as we used to live here to be poor as we said it because it was unaffordable thanks to environmental decisions on jacking up home prices decades ago.
I have been watching economic figures around the country and some places haven't faired well at all.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:13 | 6010102 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Can't do taxes if t'ain't no incomes.

taint, get it?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:24 | 6009832 Thirtyseven
Thirtyseven's picture

Some of the best people I know also have the best hookers & blow stories, and the best part is that most of them are credible.

When a lead carpenter works 20hr./week overtime just to buy more coke and another hooker for the weekend...well I guess there's worse ways to go about trying to acquire that money.  At least he's productive, not being a street criminal, and not harming anyone else.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:14 | 6010103 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

He'd be better off robbing banks. 

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 02:48 | 6010331 CHX
CHX's picture

He better watch out. Coke and nail guns are a dangerous mix.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 07:15 | 6010443 DIGrif
DIGrif's picture

Sounds like you may have a story to tell LOL.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:23 | 6009833 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

The economy hasn't gotten bad enough for them to start drinking again as if that and eating chocolate are their wonky vices keeping the entire economy going .... Unless it is going to be so bad can't do that either...
I don't know as peeps are ready to short this thang .... Cat out of the bag

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:27 | 6009839 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

Lol.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:42 | 6009878 joego1
joego1's picture

Hookers for Hillary?

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 01:46 | 6010283 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

I think it's actually Hookers for Bill, but they have to vote her in first.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 21:50 | 6009894 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Plus as the zionists lay waste to more places like Ukraine, their global sex slave supply will rise spectacularily, thus driving down prices.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 01:46 | 6010282 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Some days I feel like I fell asleep and woke up in a time warp that has flung me back to 1938. All these seemingly rational people clacking away about the Eternal Jew and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

My favorite is all the Arabs with their swastika flags. As if Hitler would have embraced them as his Aryan brothers.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 09:36 | 6010604 explosivo
explosivo's picture

Hitler would have recognized their right to create their own ethnic nation.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:06 | 6009929 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

When you dont make enough, you can hit a point where keeping what you do make isn't worth it...so you go gamble it in hopes of making something worth keeping.

Thats depressed gambling.

 

Current average earnings aren't even worth it you might as well not get paid anything at those rates or your check should just automatically accrew into chips at a casino so atleast you can get comped a room and some food.

 

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:09 | 6009941 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

My heart bleeds. Fact: hooking is the only trade where women make more than men, reason being it's the only job women can do better than men. 

A woman can still get two days of a man's wages for fifteen minutes of simply pretending to enjoy having sex with him (and going away and  leaving him in peace afterwards)? And women are allegedly oppressed on this planet? Give me a call when renting a woman is more cost-effective than porn and lube.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:29 | 6010003 forwardho
forwardho's picture

My heart also bleeds, for if you follow the progression of the logic in this post. You will see we are heading for a time when hunger will be the greatest aphrodisiac ever known.
Mankind is about to stumble down ten miles of real rough track.
For most of history the going price was a crust of bread.
Enjoy to the fullest each "normal" day you have.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 22:50 | 6010043 thetruthhurts
thetruthhurts's picture

Yep...the Eagle Ford shale girls are coming into San Antonio from the south....seems things are drying up down there.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:07 | 6010087 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The young don't have the jobs and the Boomers aren't booming like they used to.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:15 | 6010105 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Blame it on the stock market, which has been sucking in all the money all the time.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:23 | 6010119 InanimateCarbonRod
InanimateCarbonRod's picture

So...the unemployable duckface smooching selfie taking instagram twatter vags who apparently can't get a tripod to hold them up in an alley in my fair city of Sweet Home Obama..they have to go on "tour" to some other shithole to try and drum up some business.

Isn't that like trading deck chairs on the Titanic to the Costa Concordia...or some current fungible cultural touchstone....

So we're like Sons of Anarchy just swapping our rides, yeah?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:24 | 6010121 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

If you want to know the traveling hooker business, Wanchai is the place

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:24 | 6010122 besnook
besnook's picture

cheap pussy! what could be better?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:28 | 6010134 drstrangelove73
drstrangelove73's picture

Hookers for Bush?

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 23:35 | 6010153 DriveByLurker
DriveByLurker's picture

The weather wouldn't have cut into business if they had had the sense to switch over to Winter Hookers, like Chicago does...

 

 

CHICAGO—From the barren tree branches to the colorful Christmas decorations, the signs of another Windy City winter are everywhere you look. And with the chilly air and fresh snow comes the sight of local residents replacing their regular three-season hookers with prostitutes better capable of handling the tough Chicago streets.

Unlike many other parts of the country, where milder temperatures and lighter snowfalls allow for the convenience of all-year prostitutes, citizens of Chicago must turn to thicker, sturdier working girls who can provide the high performance needed to get through the worst their notorious winter has to offer.

"When temperatures drop below zero, you need prostitutes you can depend on when they're needed most," said area resident Phillip Eadie, who mounted four cold-weather hookers earlier this month. "The last thing you want during a raging blizzard is to get stuck with a prostitute who's not up to the task when it really counts."

 

Story continues at

http://www.theonion.com/articles/chicago-rolls-out-coldweather-prostitut...

 

 

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 00:30 | 6010219 petroglyph
petroglyph's picture

Photo's or it didn't happen

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 07:08 | 6010438 DIGrif
DIGrif's picture

when sex, drugs, and gambling aren’t selling you can go ahead and kiss your “recovery” hopes goodbye

 

That's got to be the best line I have read in a long long time.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 08:02 | 6010481 d edwards
d edwards's picture

yup, people are getting "hard up" pun intended.

But seriously one quarter after another there are RECORD tax moneys going to fed gov't-that'where the money is going.

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 08:22 | 6010491 mosesnra
mosesnra's picture

Its real easy when you outlaw so called acceptable sins like smoking and drnking in public you just killed the foundations of a economy. People get take out and go home!

Mon, 04/20/2015 - 16:41 | 6012111 BI2
BI2's picture

It's The American Curse >>>  http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3z

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!