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How The Second Tech Bubble Will Burst, In The Words Of Silicon Valley's "Poster Child" And World's Youngest Billionaire
Back in December, following the Sony email leak, the world was granted a second (again uninvited) glimpse into the private life and thoughts of the person who had previously suffered another email leak, this time exposing his fraternity days explots: Snapchat founder and CEO Evan Spiegel.
And while many have been quick to mock Spiegel for some of his boyish ways, the reality is that the not only is the 24-year-old the world's youngest billionaire, but he has quickly won the admiration of Silicon Valley's brand names like Twitter CEO Dick Costolo who has said "I really think he is one of the best product thinkers out there right now."
The reason we bring up the Spiegel email leak again, some 4 months after the fact, is that while the public's attention when the email was first released focused on his strategy surrounding the growth of Snapchat, there was another far more important aspect to Spiegel's email. One that, in the aftermath of last night's Facebook earnings, has proven to be spot on.
Recall that in the latest Facebook earnings reported last night the company posted its slowest growth in quarterly revenue in two years coupled with higher spending on research and development ate into profits. Facebook has warned of heavy investments in 2015 as it steps up efforts to expand a collection of products that include messaging service WhatsApp, photo-sharing service Instagram and virtual reality headset maker Oculus Rift.
In other words, while many focus on Facebook's top-line and eyeball growth, far more importantly, Facebook's spending on user acquisition is soaring. As a result, Facebook's operating expenses rose 83% in the first quarter as R&D costs jumped 133 percent and marketing and sales spending nearly doubled.
This is precisely what Spiegel warned about back in December 2013 in an email to Benchmark Partners' executive Mitch Lasky, which was leaked as part of the Michael Lynton, a Snapchat director and Sony executive, 32,000 email hack. This was Spiegel's accurate forecast in December 2013:
Facebook has continued to perform in the market despite declining user engagement and pullback of brand advertising dollars -- largely due to mobile advertising performance - especially App Install advertisements. This is a huge red flag because it indicates that sustainable brand dollars have not yet moved to Facebook mobile platform and mobile revenue growth has been driven by technology companies (many of which are VC funded). VC dollars are being spent on user acquisition despite unknown LTV of users - a recipe for disaster. This props up Facebook share price and continues to justify VC investment in technology products based on abnormally large mkt cap companies (i.e. "If this company attracts just 5% of users that FB has, it will be HUGE" - fuels spend on user acquisition as user growth is tied to values).
But why is this relevant: after all Facebook, at a market cap of $235 billion, is just barely off its all time highs? The answer is because the good times won't last, especially if yesterday's jump in user acquisition costs is indicative of a new, secular trend for the site which alleges to have nearly 1.5 billion monthly users. This is what Spiegel thinks will happen then:
When the market for tech stocks cools, Facebook market cap will plummet, access to capital for unproven businesses will become inaccessible, and ad spend on user acquisition will rapidly decrease - compounding problems for Facebook and driving stock even lower. Instagram may be only saving grace if they are able to ramp advertising product fast enough.
More importantly, Spiegel brings up an absolutely critical point for the second tech bubble fueled by social-media stocks: there simply is not enough ad spending dollars in existence to support the gargantuan market caps.
Total internet advertising spend cannot justify outsized valuations of social media products that derive revenue from advertising. Feed-based advertising units will plummet in value (in the case of Twitter, advertising spend may not move beyond experimental dollars) similar to earlier devaluing of Internet display advertising.
And finally, linking it all together and confirming that Spiegel is far more mature than his youthful 24 years, is his take on what happens to the tech bubble once the Fed's Kool-aid ends, and what follows.
Fed has created abnormal market conditions by printing money and keeping interest rates low. Investors are looking for growth anywhere they can find it and tech companies are good targets - at these values, however, all tech stocks are expensive - even looking at 5+ years of revenue growth down the road. This means that most value-driven investors have left the market and the remaining 5-10%+ increase in market value will be driven by momentum investors. At some point there won't be any momentum investors left buying at higher prices, and the market begins to tumble. May be 10-20% correction or something more significant, especially in tech stocks.
All of this was said back in December 2013 by the person many consider to be at the forefront of the social media bubble. Is it clear now why central banks are literally going all-on to monetize everything and anything around the globe, just to keep said momentum investor bid going? Because without it, and all bets are off, not in our words but in those of Silicon Valley's very own poster child.
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Confetti Billionaire == World's Tallest Midget
Timing is everything
he must be reading ZH daily
And you are a billionaire again...how? Oh, yes, because of excessive valuations.
It's what made possible your insignificant and less than profound words being dispensed from the pages of Zero Hedge. In other words, if it wasn't for the very thing you're bitching about, you'd still be playing Xbox in a crappy apartment somewhere in Fresno you share with 2 roommates.
I am Chumbawamba.
You seem to always find the most ignorant way to fail at snark.
Translation: my remarks are apparently too intelligent for you to follow.
I am Chumbawamba.
I rememeber when stawks like Lucent, Nortel, AOL, CISCO, etc were all the rage.
Lots of peeples got raped in that Dot.com bust.
This was the best article I've read on ZH in over 2 months.
Is real money paper debt promises or is real money backed by something physical and fungible?
This is not a new concept.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGsFK52L0lk
One example of history.
RIPS
And then the Fed outlawed all cash and made Facebook the only medium for financial transactions...and so was born
Faecedbook*
*Bet you didn't see that comin', did you Evan?
Kids these days.. so much smarter than their parents.
What's so fucking intelligent about purposely ignoring the point of an article so you can demonstrate your ability to talk random shit?
Screw it, let's talk about how everything is about to burst, that's real.
(How about those oil jobs vanishing, bankers being dissappeared, or the flopping pogo markets that kill speculation?)
Btw the Oil Jobs have HUGE Economic underpinnings attached to them!
Have you considered that perhaps you entirely missed the point of my comment?
Here, let me just spell it out for you: WHO GIVES A FUCK WHAT A 24 YEAR OLD TECH BILLIONAIRE HAS TO SAY.
Now, go read my comment again, and see if it makes sense this time. I think the irony is readily apparent, but maybe this kid is your cousin or something?
I am Chumbawamba.
Have you considered that I was in concert with your sentiments?
Because, I don't give a flying rats ass about what a tech billionaire has to say either!!
More over I don't give a damn what you gotta say either..... :P
Well, I am not so vain as to think my comments matter to you. However, if you'll look closely you'll notice I was responding to the gentleman above your comment.
-Chumblez.
Oh really? That's quite perosterous that would have ever escaped my extremely narrow minded attention, but thanks for pointing out the obvious though...
Flame on!
LMFAO. It's a fucking riot. Good thing this fire isn't in Kalifornia. The new water bans wouldn't allow the two structures to be saved.
chumbawamba
Your comments are spot-on. Completely accurate.
Too bad many commentators at Zero Hedge still don’t get it.
Not that comes as a surprise to many of us.
Listening to a tech person, and a 24 years old making predictions about percentages of decline, it is really pathetical.
I guess some of us get what some of us deserves.
So chumbawamba thanks for your comment. Your type of comments is why I came here for.
Geniuses, these tribalists are, all the billion dollar companies are started/run by them.
Tribal geniuses, no villages missing any idiots.
I was in the thick of it back in 1999-2000.
Same as it ever was, you either sucked tribal micro-weiner or you did not arrive.
Bugs me that the global spotlight is taken by tribalists on so many fronts.
This isn't coming from a place of jealousy or bitterness, but I am unimpressed with these young billionaires. Even one who grasps basic economics like this chap. I don't see the genius in what they've done. They are taking the notion of consumer gadgets and placing them in cyberspace. That's all well and good, but the fact that one can accumulate such incredible amounts of wealth from pure "luxury websites" is staggering. The value they have added is dramatically overstated. For instance, the developers of oculus rift and similar VR headsets have the potential to revolutionise computing much more than something like facebook or snapchat. But even that is a silly luxury trinket. Furthermore, I will submit that I could take probably the brightest 50 ZH readers, put them in this kid's shoes, and they would blow his performance out of the water. I've sporadically had the opportunity to rub elbows with high net worth people (tens of millions), and while very poised, none of them are what I would consider geniuses. In fact, I had decided after meeting a dozen or so of these people that it really has more to do with (in order of importance):
1) connections (the vast majority of high net worth people have gone to the "right" schools)
2) timing (having the right connections and resources available at just the right time)
3) luck (there are plenty of unforseen hazards, like the random regulation or determined competitor who scuttles your start-up)
4) determination (you won't "make it" unless you get up every morning willing to work 24 hours straight to put out a fire)
5) intelligence (important, but certainly not mandatory, that's what the "help" is for)
You put into many words what my terse comment above alluded to. These young tech CEOs are simply a bunch of hand-picked NSA/CIA goons. Mark Zuckerberg is the posterboy.
Maybe this will make sense to NotApplicable.
I am Chumbawamba.
Nice to hear your views. Haven't seen you in ages. Hope all is well.
The bottom line is making a bunch of what everyone else wants and has a very hard time accumulating is impressive. Opinions are just that, opinions. Being able to fuck off for the rest of your life is the purest form of freedom. And this guy can do it if he wants. Won't have to answer to a fucking soul. So we can debate whether what he's done is impressive or if he is impressive, and if I were him I'm pretty sure I wouldn't give a fuck what we thought.
He ain't fucking off for the rest of his life. What wealth he has is tied up in his dot.com valuation. All he has is a number on a prospectus. And a handler.
I am Chumbawamba.
Good to hear from you on this matter chumba. This is all a big fucking joke of a life in the bay and anyone with their eyes open can see it forreals.
NONE OF THIS SHIT IS WORTH A DARN. It's all repackaging of memes that have already been beaten to death a jillion times over, and no one apparently gets sick of it, because as long as the skin is new, no one gives a fuck about the body underneath.
True innovation cannot happen while the current paradigm of technologist and technology worship continue from the side of the masses, and while complete and utter restriction of expression and productive possibility exist from the corp/legal/gub/mil side of things. All this garbage is mil hand-me-downs and leftovers in the first place.
Fake numbers, fake people. Almost worth not talking about, except for everyone is all tied into it. "Snapchat"... jeezus, get a life and do something productive for fuck's sake.
Amen I Am A... if he so chooses he can step away and not answer to one MF soul. Meanwhile, the ZH crowd can stare at their 'puter screens and just rant to their heart's content....sincere doubts he gives a flying rat-ass.
You obviously are impressed with wealth, regardless of how it is acquired. That is your prerogative. To think that freedom is divined from material possessions says a lot about you. And regarding him not giving a fuck about what we think, that certainly has never stopped anyone from speaking their mind, nor should it.
I believe the operative term is 'gonnections'.
Think of it all as hologram polish. Bringing the ponzi illusion to a brilliant lustre. Less to see and even lesser to perceive.
What is BigData without BigSample?
Every computer isn't likely digital. The human mind isn't, and our father in heaven doesn't make junk and doesn't need samples. How to best recreate that impression on Earth?
I “rub elbows” with one worth 100’s of millions - spot on. The only one I disagree with is #4, hard work is not necessary when you hire the right “help”.
The Green Days are over....
https://youtu.be/op-c3njOKz0
He might be a billionaire, all right, but I have to admit not a dumb billionaire. The things he says actually make sense.
His sister is probably one of the FEDs programmers and he is just covering for them.
Emails = boys will be boys....
In his emails he talked about doing blow and peeing on girls...what's wrong with that?
Seems like typical college stuff....
Isn't it usually the girls in college doing those things?
Just another circle jerk yearning for a golden shower.
It's because he was doing normal heterosexual things. It's all teh ghey now.
"People judge me for having a Prius. You’ve got a truck with a big lift kit, probably because you have a little dick... And if that means you have a little dick, doesn't that mean I have a huge dick? No! Because according to my friends that means I’m a fag."
- Bill Burr
"there simply is not enough ad spending dollars in existence to support the gargantuan market caps."
Thank you. Glad somebody noticed.
Capital running scared and looking for any place big enough and safer than where it came from. Combined with investments desperately seeking yield regardless of risk (or suffer the wrath of the cash flow gods). Yeah, it ends well. lol.
Capital? How quaint! The capital you refer to is a fiction, a mass hallucination...*the* big lie.
The whole system is set up so there's no longer need for real capital to extract all the wealth out of the world...
Or just not needed to produce more wealth (useful, desired things - which I can see you may agree with; but also building people into those of good charactor, as having the intentions behind what creates the appearance of good charactor is a form of eternal wealth... right?), especially if "the meek will inherit the Earth" turns out to be a good thing to be lumped in with.
There are still a few companies in the US that actually DO have capital and DO use it to invest in production. Fortunately, these companies are not listed on Wall Street and are still family run, much like the fifty entities I'm corporate controller for. This family recognized the need to get rid of debt in early 2007 and started making jumbo payments while they had $65 million in revenue. In 2010, when revenue was $28 million, all debt was paid off. We had very modest profitability from 2010 to now. But we WERE profitable, with no shenanigans, no buried transactions, no off-balance sheet shit.
Last year they managed to buy out competition in new markets. And those ten new locations were profitable within a year.
Working on getting ready for this years audit, we had $36 million in revenue, $3 million in profit. And we acquired new debt...some of which is at 0.00% interest, others at 2 to 4%, We mine rock, make ready mix cement, sell steel and do steel fabrication.
Now, in spite of all of the above.
We're seeing a revival of housing construction. I shit you not. I find it disturbing when I personally know of an entire walled neighborhood constructed in 2006 (yeah, completed) that has been shuttered...not one unit sold. Across the street, the mirror of the neighborhood has about 70% occupancy. We're talking about four hundred McMansions that are off the market, and we're starting to build more homes?
My recession spidey-sense is bugging the shit out of me.
Ad spend is simply for brand awareness...it does not bring necessarily bring on new customers. when the middle cless gets squeezed and have less and less money to spend on discretionary items...all the ad spending any company does will NOT result in any meaningful link to revenue growth. This is when margins are squeezed and companies have to decide on saving preserving cashflow or burning it useless online advertising.
You can say that again...
Ad spend is simply for brand awareness...it does not bring necessarily bring on new customers. when the middle cless gets squeezed and have less and less money to spend on discretionary items...all the ad spending any company does will NOT result in any meaningful link to revenue growth. This is when margins are squeezed and companies have to decide on saving preserving cashflow or burning it useless online advertising.
Oh, you did...
There simply is not enough money on this planet to buy the combined market cap of these companies
http://gizmodo.com/5995301/how-much-money-is-there-on-earth
Quick... someone check my math, but I did a quick estimate of almost $16,800,000,000,000,000 in gold at $1,200/oz at 90 cubic feet in Earth's crust. Can't recall if that number is correct. ???
At $5,000 per ounce?
Sorry, I can still laugh at this kind of thing. :'(
Focusing on ads also means forgetting what they are - money spent to sell product. I'd say there's not enough consumer money in existence to justify advertising of products most can't afford.
If you value the markets traditionally then yes the market caps are excessive but when you throw NIRP into the mix, then there's alot of capital out there looking for a better place to go.
at least the kid isn't reciting the party line.
Don't get too excited, as that was supposed to be a private email. What does he say publicly?
So Silicon Valley wonder boy says after a 10% increase from here there may be a 10% 'correction', back to where we are right now? Derp!
If I had $1000 and then a 10% increase and then a 10% decrease, I would end up with less than $1000. Just sayin.
Total advertising spending in 2013 (all media, including radio and billboards) $147B
Market cap of FB alone $235B.
Uber worth more than all US car companies conbined.
No bubble here.
Look at it this way, at least Uber won't have much to liquidate when they fold.
Uber must have a billion dollar R&D branch devoted only to figuring out how execs can best cash in their stocks.
It's almost exactly like in 2000, isn't it? I can't believe we've forgotten so quickly. It's almost EXACTLY the same.
I just can't figure out why my pets.com stock hasn't ridden the upward wave along with FB, Twitter and the rest of them.
Obviously because people started spaying and neutering their pets. If you can get legislation banning the non-consenting sterilization of pets (don't laugh, this might work in California), you might have a good long position on pets.com.
that was when one travel site (Expedia?) was worth more than all of the airlines combined by a factor of 2.
Just stop talking and buy stawks. Grandma Yeller has your back.
FB, Twitter and the rest of them...r u kidding me? What about my Ag/Au? i'm reduced to eating my silver and gold coins cuz i refuse to sell em
lol
At least he could have washed that dirt off his face before posing for that intense pic....
Smart man for 24. I know a lot of guys that age who would do better as wall paint.
Except for not knowing basic math.
1000 + 10% then -10% =/= 1000
1000 x 10%= 1100 - 10% = 990
Who the hell gave this a down arrow? Or the one above it. Obviously, someone who can't do math. Damn
And there you go...fucking up common core, shame on you!
"Smart man for 24. I know a lot of guys that age who would do better as wall paint.'
How smart is he...he pushed away a $3B offer from FaceBook?
Time will tell...
10 or 20% correction? He's an optimist, more like 70 or 80% then we'll be getting more into fair value territory. Or am I the optimist? Tis a conundrum.
The Fed will do everything it can to prevent that from happening.
He meant to say 100 to 200%. Numbers are all weird in this new NIRP black hole.
Yeah, that estimate was by far the weak point in his analysis.
10% to 20% would be a typical correction. This isn't a typical business cycle.
DHS brought plenty of KY rainbow flavored jelly to Silicon Valley. Did they acquire the new Solyndra plant the taxpayers ponied up for 750 under DOE approval?
You are all such haters. This time it's different cuz Obama and cherry flavored iPads.
I want a new iPhone with a Obama unicorn riding a rainbow decal on it.
/sarc
You can print this one:
http://s3-ak.buzzfeed.com/static/enhanced/terminal01/2011/5/3/13/enhance...
or if you prefer this one:
https://nannystateliberationfront.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/unicorn.jpg
2015: What a year to be alive
Those Jews are shmart!
Until they get smoked out.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9u8OWS4g8XM
Dats funny. Michelin Zyklon B tyres lol
So Greece has been annihilated, Syria...annihilated, Yemen....on the cusp!of total annihilation
And we're worried about 20% correction in stocks?
Hey! Fuck Armenia and Israel! Nuke them fuckers and laugh your balls off bitchez!
this kid was under 10 years old in the 99 bubble. i was 18 back then and i vaguely remember the insanity around me despite being in school.
i was fully in the midst of it 7 years ago when this guy was 17 years old and he was still in high school.
i don't think his observations make him wildly precocious. he will be smart to have sold out his company before the next big bubble.
his emails are worthless. his net worth is what speaks.
a product thinker !
how do you come up with this shit ?
!What?! You mean you haven't watched the "Titles of the Rich & Famous" ? Absurd....
Someone call Robin(g) LEECH....
Forget about unknown users, I can't remember the last time any mobile add actually influenced me to buy something. Seriously, it doesn't f-ing work.
on the very rare occasions thag I use fb, i flag every advert that comes along as "offensive". It only takes a second and I never see it again. enough people flag every ad as offensive and the entire fb model dies.
I was doing that...then the FBI showed up.
(yeah, really, they did.)
Advertising is like a state road work budget. You better spend it so next year you get an increase in spending. Where I live the state fills in the same potholes with asphalt which 2 weeks later are large holes again, since they just tamp them down with shovels. Some of the roads are more patch than road.
Paul Krugman, road commissioner.
SnatchChat?
Is this some kinda XXX Dating app?
It is now.
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Snatch has always historically been a CB handle for that stuff between the ladie's legs, so BeaverChat would likely lead you to believe that it's a prostitution channel yes?
And the push is on? (Because it's all about the GDP right?)
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-america-should-legalize-prostitution-...
Not what I meant by "make it talk", dog.
This is pretty much all "Doh!" stuff. The 2000 bubble was still much, much frothier at both the corporate and individual investor levels. These are all classic tulip deals, ponzi schemes, con games, and VCs doing stupid stuff with house money. Mostly harmless, good clean fun.
there simply is not enough ad spending dollars in existence to support the gargantuan market caps."
No shit, kiddo.
The truth is, "marketing" to a broken, already in debt middle class (what it's all about, and where the revenue dollars USED to be vast) isn't profitable.
Another truth is, people eventually become worn out about tech after awhile. I mean, the urge to keep everyone informed about your every move, on otherwise limited-purpose social media, becomes tiresome for all but the most self-absorbed among us. At some point, most normal people start to wonder why anyone gives a damn about what someone else is doing...
That means new things (hopefully things of far more and lasting value than social media) eventually catch our attention, and ultimately, advertising dollars attached to them.
It's not hard to create new iterations of what is (eg all the latest aps and other Facebook spin offs like Twitter and Instagram, and all the rest...).
What's hard is to create something like a light bulb, or a telephone, or a transistor...where no such thing existed before, AND which truly revolutionizes human life, well beyond narcissistic digital journals of very ordinary narcissists.
THAT takes something special social media producers don't have.
And THAT'S the kind of real innovation we need.
Given where our heads are today, it would seem we have a very long wait for that kind of new...
m
Italian company hopes to market synthetic eyes.
http://www.gizmag.com/mhox-3d-bioprinted-synthetic-eye-concept/37113/?ut...
Great post Md4.
"What's hard is to create something like a light bulb, or a telephone, or a transistor...where no such thing existed before, AND which truly revolutionizes human life, well beyond narcissistic digital journals of very ordinary narcissists.
THAT takes something special social media producers don't have."
"Genius is an African who dreams up snow." - Vladimir Nabokov
A man can't rape and pillage the willing. Can he?
Edward Bernays says you can...
Amazing that what people have done since man learned how to converse, has simply been filtered through a piece of hardware/software, and called something revolutionary.
VC? LTV? wtf are we talking about? Define your terms please. Before someone tears into me for not knowing what those particular acronyms stand for let me say that it's hard to keep up since there are about 1,000 new ones generated each day.
Moustache, we live in The Age of Acronym.
you mean we live in (wli) the AoA
venture capitol loan to value
thank you
You mean Venture Capital, not capitol - surely.
No.. it is capitol ... Venture Capitol is in Wash DC.
Hang Musk, their fearless fudgepacker leader
A must watch, "I'm happy" one Silicon Valley VC does a dance routine:) Actually the documentary brings up some very good points on how far the Valley has gone to dupe government and how far apart government and how far apart the two are with their perceptual visions. Do we go virtual with the Valley or go blind sided dumb with the government with nothing in the middle?
Cybertopia Dreams of the Silicon Valley and yes Thiel is in here wanting his own tech island to live on, can't make this stuff up:)
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2015/03/cybertopia-dreams-of-silicon-valley.html
We are under "the Attack of the Killer Algorithms"...my video site of people much smarter than me on what's really going on out there.
http://www.ducknet.net/attack-of-the-killer-algorithms/
If you want a good laugh, read about the Oculus head set that Fidelity came up with for people to use gamification called "Stock City" where you can take your portfolio to a new level and strap on a head set and play the game, investors were not impressed:) Also, a little bit about the Goldman Kensho analytics.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/11/goldman-sachs-big-investor-in-kensho.html
The cyber world might get split as the World gets becomes multi-polar which one pole cannot accept so it loses massive numbers of customers further reducing that advertising revenue.
App stores are the only bankable bullet proof tech spaces that will not go away ever!!
Considering they sell apps,music,movies,tv,book and soon physical goodz..
Apple and Google own the hardware or OS, why do you think google went so hard with android, its their biggest asset by far, because they can sell you while you are watching your dog take a shit, I mean that's fucking real reach, forget about trust and all that other market spaz lett speak, its gameover bitchez, and there aint no one coming into that market ever!!!
The other models are ratshit, all they can sell is clicks and people in 5-10 will all have Adblock/ghostery/noscript and anything else you can think of to keep evil big bro away, think about it ffs..
Twitter and Facebook are one good idea away from MySpace LOL!!!
sry double post..
That's why those government contracts for spying, profiling, and tracking are so ever more important to these companies now.
NSA contracts, FTMFW!
Cannot upvote your comment Downtoolong, you used italic print next to the voting space
Get a new dumb phone?
Just click to the right of his name, tab twice then press enter for up vote; or tab 3x and press enter for down.
As one of my friends said, "why don't you come on my facebook anymore?"
"Investors are looking for growth anywhere they can find it ...."
--------
Growth? You mean REAL growth? Not in the private sector.
LOL. How about the only growth game in town: The government and government-fueled crap like the BigEducation criminal enterprise, or the "renewable" energy scam. That might work for a while.
Me? I'm converting fiat into some nice unfashionable Missouri recreational/farm land.
Yawn. Just tell us when you go all in short the duck, big guy. Today maybe?
you guys think he wrote this?
haha..his dad did!
No... he worte it...the boy has been reading ZH.
Another Fugazi-Billionaire.
Tech boy is underestimating the downturn. This era will be remembered for the 'important' hot stocks that produced no real value. This will be so obvious after the crash. Otherwise, the excessive stock prices are the result of...wait for it...unprecendented money printing and bogus low interest rates.
So u know how the Atlanta fed gdp chart was just changed to the Atlanta fed gdp now chart. I knew when I heard that new title it meant we wouldn't get updated charts for watching the GDP now.... And they aren't updating it... We are so over due for the new statistics we are almost ready for the next one after that .....
Turds... That's what we get for watching that page like it's real.
Whatever just shows the reality of this deceitful economy and the desperation to keep reality in the dark.
Say what you want about this guy, dumb he is not. Writes like a 40 year old.
Like Bill Gates, he is a chosen to build something the masters want. In the meantime, they want us all to pretend he is smart. He ain't smart. He's just evil.
<"...10 or 20% correction? He's an optimist, more like 70 or 80% then we'll be getting more into fair value territory. Or am I the optimist? Tis a conundrum....">
After 40 years of tech, tech and more tech, they all now believe trees can grow to the sky. They are all masters of their universe. Insane wages did drive property values to the sky in Silicon Valley. Now, its all toys and more toys, same toy new color...or a useless watch. This cannot last...no way. An entire society that no longer needs to do any work, just collect entitlements and buy more toys. Cars sales are tanking again as the fools can't even make those tiny nine-year payments. Not knowing anything else the bankers drove demand forward just like the last bubble.
When Silicon Valley goes, it all goes...and fast.
Anyone and I mean anyone can give a percentage guess for an eventual correction in the equity markets.
But you are nothing unless you can give a timing parameter for the correction.
Everyone knows we are in a massive asset bubble but no one knows when it will blow.
Just shut up until it does.
So much bitterness on this site. Must be all the people who thought Obama was gonna sink the ship, so they stayed in gold or cash, while the Nasty has gone through the roof. Don't fight the tape.
Wow...a genius...
Only complete jack tards buy stocks now.
How true.
Problem is, there's no shortage of "jack tards".
no shortage of central bank jacktards
Facebook should move into new markets to make more money.
Can I patent a few ideas for FB?
* Help people to prepare tax returns. Then for a small subscription fee allow ladies to search by annual incomes in mens' profiles.
* Sell cars online. Then for a small subscription fee allow ladies to select those men who drive Italian and German cars.
* Sell lingerie and clothes online. Then use complicated mathematical formulas to determine womens' weight, height and boob sizes using clothes sizes.
Evan Spiegel, Mark Zuckerberg, Serge Brin, Larry Page, et all billionaires. They’re all smart, really smart. They deserve to be at the top. But, none of them in their wildest dreams ever imagined their personal wealth would be valued in ten or eleven figures. They know they would have done everything they have done for $100 million, even $10 million. They all seem to be admitting, “shit, even I don’t deserve this much”. “Sure, I like my smart houses, yachts, private jets, exotic cars, gold and diamond studded watches, master art collections, and army of servants, in Palo Alto, New York, Shanhai, London, Paris, Dubai, and my private island. But, what the hell am I supposed to do with the other ten billion dollars”. In spite of their success and accomplishments, they know there is something wrong and disingenuine about their rewards. Perhaps they are coming to realize that Wall Street and the central banks of the world have distorted everything, and that just because something is worth something doesn’t imply that it is worth at least a billion dollars.
The broken clock speaks again......
Maybe Spiegel is completely wrong. Have you considered that possibility?
are you related to a retard...?
Strawman.
The kid sounds like he is alright.... but I bet he can't take a punch in the mouth...
I grow tired living among monkeys.
"i was a wealthy man at the eighteenth hole of a golf course.By the time I got to the clubhouse I was destitute." G. Marx; apparently not a joke.