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The 7.5 Year Itch Starts Next Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A gentle reminder that next week sees the beginning of the market's seven-and-a-half year itch...

 

Stranger things have happened...

Remember the stop-on-a-dime 666 lows of the S&P...

 

We have extended an almost-perfect Fibonnaci 61.8% off the last high-to-low swing... (as The S&P remains shy of the 2134 resistance.)

 

The S&P has recovered its inflation-adjusted peak...

 

 

And The Nasdaq has recovered its bubble highs...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

h/t Brad Wishak

 

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Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:02 | 6026976 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

This time is different!

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:08 | 6027004 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

I came here hoping for logarithmic charts and charts somehow indexed to value and not a depreciating dollar. For once, I was not disappointed. Very good post!

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:22 | 6027083 Arius.
Arius.'s picture

if most believes it ...it becomes a self fulfilling profecy...masses ("inveztors") move in heards

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:07 | 6027005 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

Wake me up at 11.5 year itch.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:12 | 6027026 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Who wants to scratch Grandma Yellen's itch?

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:17 | 6027054 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Not even with your dick.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:23 | 6027094 CarpetShag
CarpetShag's picture

Just wait until the yield spread widens.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:26 | 6027111 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

DON'T GO THERE!!!

Uggghhhh!!

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 19:13 | 6028116 greyghost
greyghost's picture

shag and winston i just had to down vote you both.......that just too disgusting

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:14 | 6027043 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Prolly body lice or crabs.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:15 | 6027048 Freedom In Your...
Freedom In Your Lifetime's picture

I really want to see the chaos and disbelief in all the parasites faces and voices when 10% a day drops are a regularity. I miss the 2008 / 2009 markets.

Nothing like seeing people who produces nothing and think they are better than everyone else get a bitch slap of reality. My only hope is that this time it is so big and disruptive that even the pedophiles in the FED get their cumupens. Bring on the fucking crash.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 17:06 | 6027815 EBT excepted
EBT excepted's picture

ain't d'drop what kill you...it d'bein' unconshahs, in d' pool of toids....

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 23:31 | 6028652 neilhorn
neilhorn's picture

Do you have to work hard to learn to write like that?

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:19 | 6027072 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Machines don't care.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:30 | 6027149 The central planners
The central planners's picture

Yea its different because it going to be worst

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 22:57 | 6028596 capital one
capital one's picture

I freelance over th? internet and earn about 80-85$ an hour. I was without a job for 7 months but last month my paycheck with big fat bonus was $15000 just working on my computer from my home for 5-6 hours. Here's what i have been doing... www.globe-report.com

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:05 | 6026990 DontGive
DontGive's picture

Fudementals are broken and don't apply any longer.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:05 | 6026992 farmboy
farmboy's picture

I heard Martians will land and sapp the FED

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Attacks!

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:05 | 6026994 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

IF it goes down 2% then that would be a great time to btfd. /s

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:25 | 6027106 Osmium
Osmium's picture

2%  I don't know, that's one hell of a drop.  Not sure it will be allowed to drop that much without a little FED intervention..

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:06 | 6026998 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Buy Bitches! BUY!

https://www.google.com/finance?q=AMZN&ei=CYU6VcmCIcv9sQeAg4BA

 

Nothing like losing twice the amount that WS expected to boost a stock.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:07 | 6027001 yogibear
yogibear's picture

This time your have Federal Reserve members parading and talking up the markets when they drop just a bit.

Something the Federal Reserve never did before. 

They just want to keep juicing stocks. 

It's like the only game in town for the Federal Reserve.

 

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:36 | 6027178 walküre
walküre's picture

Talking is not enough. Financial world is on pins and needles.

There's no clear direction and certainly no QE4 on the horizon.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:07 | 6027003 katchum
katchum's picture

I think we go parabolic instead.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:10 | 6027018 yogibear
yogibear's picture

We are already there.

And Fed governors panic at any sign of stocks going down.

It's like that cannot allow it to correct. Their scared.

I

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:25 | 6027109 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

If they included market price instead of hookers in their inflation index, we'd see where all the money printing is going.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 23:35 | 6028660 neilhorn
neilhorn's picture

Is the cost of hookeers going down? Is it too late to short?

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:16 | 6027051 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

parabolic^2

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:08 | 6027010 This is it
This is it's picture

BTFTop

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:10 | 6027017 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

666 lows.... thanks for reminding me! Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha snort snort!

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:12 | 6027028 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

In the first great depression nobody had any money. In the second great depression everybody will have "money". Fire up those helicopters Janet, let's keep this party rolling.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:30 | 6027134 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I disagree.  They are banning cash, no wheelbarrows this time around.  Everyone will have EBT food and housing credits.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:32 | 6027160 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Notice the "" around the word money.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:39 | 6027188 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Depending on how desperate our central planners get, they will set the price of all your essentials and determine who gets a share of what at gun point.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 18:32 | 6027900 g'kar
g'kar's picture

I need a wheelbarrow to move my junk silver around.

Sat, 04/25/2015 - 13:23 | 6029441 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

I need a wheelbarrow to move my junk around.

 

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 15:29 | 6027427 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Helicopters yes - but replace "cash" with digital currency -

 

 so that would be digital current?

 

Don't taze me Janet!

 

 

 

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:13 | 6027038 Not_FieldingMellish
Not_FieldingMellish's picture

YATC. (Yet another top call).

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:15 | 6027046 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Oh I had this once. A nice man named Janet said not to worry as there is now a cure for it.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:22 | 6027064 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So the NASDAQ is on a 15 year super-cycle?  Tech Bubble 2.0!

Being tech you'd think it would be twice as fast (3.75 year cycles).

But...then again...dot coms actually went out of business in 2001, unlike GM and AIG in 2008.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:22 | 6027085 CarpetShag
CarpetShag's picture

bullish

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:22 | 6027086 BanksterSlayer
BanksterSlayer's picture

Be careful, Tyler, you're getting awfully close to admitting that the Shemitah phenomenon is both real and measurable.

See:

https://youtu.be/WgtAoT8dWxg

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:29 | 6027137 Osmium
Osmium's picture

It's different this time

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:35 | 6027169 walküre
walküre's picture

like gravity has been suspended - different?

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:50 | 6027258 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

You need to learn the Discordian Law of Fives.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 16:11 | 6027623 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

If the market corrects 5-10% and Janet's talking points are "I SUNK IT!" I will lose my shit.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:22 | 6027087 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Due to the amount of the economy being valued by 'tech', if you were to inflation adjust NASDAQ, we still have plenty of room to run up more.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 09:36 | 6031006 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Just as in Tech Bubble 1.0, these new fad stocks are much easier to hype. Better measure is still P/E's (ex fraud accounting if anyone can figure that out) and number of IPO's for money loosing companies. Much higher percentage in Tech Bubble 2.0 than in 1.0. Central Banks controlling markets, but is there really no long term consequence that will manifest itself at some point? Are stocks really going to end up being the only thing worth owning and the currency wars continue their race to the bottom?

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:27 | 6027123 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Looks more like they are itching to breakout of this range to new highs.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:29 | 6027135 Bear
Bear's picture

I am so glad that my angst will finally end and fundamentals and technical clues will once again lead the market and not the Spoofers and the FED

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:33 | 6027161 walküre
walküre's picture

The Fed stopped QE - officially

The Fed has given warning they will raise rates - officially

When they do it, nobody can say they had no clue. Unless the Fed announces officially that their new mandate is to keep all asset classes inflated at all time highs, always until eternity.

The propaganda will be instructed accordingly to sell this to the masses.

Rates will go higher - this year. If the Fed doesn't stick with its own official assessment and its own announcement, the Fed will be tossed to the curb.

When they announced QE 1,2 and 3 and whatever other financial wizardy in between, the markets went up, up and away.

Not sure if to short at this time or just remain in cash.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:34 | 6027166 Cannon Fodder
Cannon Fodder's picture

In 2001 and 2008 - Elud 29 on the Jewish calendar (exactly 7 years aparr) were the two biggest point drops up till each of those dates. I'll be curious to see what happens this Elud 29 which I think falls on Sept 13th this year.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:41 | 6027206 walküre
walküre's picture

Rosh Hashanah date as well

very suitable

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:50 | 6027255 froze25
froze25's picture

God's word must be obeyed, even by the money changers.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 15:10 | 6027296 walküre
walküre's picture

whether there is a God or not.. think about THAT

if Shemitah didn't happen the way it is meant to happen, it would shake one of the foundations of a 5,000 year old "cult" (for argument's sake).. it would discredit 3 major world religions

Vatican Bank itself might get the ball rolling if the Jbanks aren't complying.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:59 | 6027302 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

but but but Shmitah also sounds like Lakshmi, the Hindu goddess of prosperity!

It's dumb bullshit people, and when have the Jews ever been right about anything accept by total accident? I think there's going to be a big collapse this year but I also thought there was going to be a big collapse in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015... Just keep dollar cost averaging into metals and don't believe anything you read, especially Hebrew or Hebrew-derived idiocy.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 15:16 | 6027364 walküre
walküre's picture

right or wrong doesn't matter!

observing or not, doesn't matter either!

there is much more at stake than we can possibly imagine.

what is the loss of a couple trillions of digital wealth in trading portfolios vs. the loss of faith in a) religious supremacy and b) currency??? going back 5,000 years!

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:37 | 6027183 aVian
aVian's picture

shemitah

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 18:01 | 6027951 AIIB
AIIB's picture

see earlier comment

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 14:54 | 6027273 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

BATSHIT

Buy All Time Shemitah High In Tech

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 15:06 | 6027332 Cannon Fodder
Cannon Fodder's picture

I think there will be a certain amount of irony if Greece is the domino that takes everything down this summer and autumn.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 16:45 | 6027750 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

...and there is standard

 

"Sell In May And Go Away"

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 15:42 | 6027499 A_latvian
A_latvian's picture

Totally and purposefully aligned with the presidential election, since the year 2000 (and to a lesser extent 1992). It allows both sides to blame each other and for no one to take responsibility, while The Federal Reserve quietly takes all our money.

All according to plan.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 15:56 | 6027556 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Minsk II has already been kicked aside - when does the shit get real on the eastern Ukraine border?    That should be good for 2200 at least, maybe even 2250 if they vaporize one of those spiffy new NATO tank columns...

 

 

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 17:07 | 6027816 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

This market loves taking down your short positions.

Carry on.

Forget the currency war.

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 18:03 | 6027959 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Go long on Depends in September . . . .

Fri, 04/24/2015 - 18:53 | 6028070 dscott8186
dscott8186's picture

What a tease!  You keep chumming the water and one day I am going to take a bite out of one tossing the chum.  When the market crashes I will be feasting.

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