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8 Charts That Prove The US Is Already In A Recession
The evidence is mounting...
While broadly-speaking, both 'hard' and 'soft' macro data has disappointed, as we noted previously, the scale of those 'missed expectations' is stunning - worst since Lehman. While this is blamed on weather, the fact is that America had 30% less snow this year than last and still, as the following charts strongly suggest, the YoY drops are on a scale that screams "recession"...
US Macro Data has surprised to the downside on a scale not seen since Lehman...
Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession...
And if Retail Sales are weak, then Wholesalers are seeing sales plunge at a pace not seen outside of recession...
Which means Factory Orders are collapsing at a pace only seen in recession...
And Durable Goods New Orders are negative YoY once again - strongly indicative of a recessionary environment...
... oh, and core capital goods orders as well.
* * *
The last time durable goods orders fell this much, The Fed launched QE3 - indicating clearly why they desperately want to raise rates imminently... in order to have some non-ZIRP/NIRP ammo when the next recession hits.
* * *
And finally - coming full circle - it appears everyone is scrambling for credit to afford to maintain even a semblance of living standards (and lift retail sales) but "rejections" of credit requests have never - ever - been higher...
So the credit available to goose retail sales, which will goose wholesale sales which will drive factory orders... is no longer available to every muppet with a 500 FICO (old or new version) Score!!
* * *
But apart from that, given that US equities are at record highs, everything must be great in the US economy.
And just in case you figured that if domestic credit won't goose the economy, Chinese and Japanese stimulus means the rest of the world will save us... nope!! Export growth is now negative... as seen in the last 2 recessions.
* * *
And that's why America went to war...
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Evidence that the world is rocking to the beat of EXCELLENCE and INTEGRITY: NASDAQ 5000+ Yeah baby. Dude I get NY strip steak, beans, rice and beer and cigarettes for less than I got it during 1999! AMERICA - FUCK YEAH! America is awesome! HILLARY 2016! FUCKING I WANT MORE YOU MOTHER FUCKERS! I don't worry about inflation or gas pricxes when my options account is up 600% in one mother fucking day, go AMZN! I'm so fucking rich and I'M STILL IN MY PAJAMAS FROM TRADING SO HARD ALL DAY. /sarc
The Worst Since LehmanTM stuff will continue to pile up, but the honey badger market don't care. The honey badger market don't give a shit.
Burn all those silly charts. Just show aapl charts.
Exactly. What Apple has done is glued people to their device to the point that they don't need to buy anything else. All their time is spent sleeping, eating, and finding a place to eat on their phone.
...and made of them a flaming moronic IDIOT!
Person A: "We're in a recovery."
Person B: "No, we're in a recession."
Person A: "No, we're in a recovery."
Person B: "No, we're in a recession."
Person A: "I promise you: THIS IS A RECOVERY"
Person B: "I have 8 charts that document that WE'RE IN A RECESSION."
Person A: "Recovery!!!"
Person B: "Recession!!!"
Person A: "Recovery!!!"
Person B: "Recession!!!"
Person A: "Recovery!!!"
Person B: "Recession!!!"
Person Z: No, we're in a papered over depression!
Sales made: 0.
Add to the fact that all those Home Equity Loans started back in 2004/07 are going to start hitting much higher fixed interests and require prinicpal payments instead of interest only. We may see another wave of foreclosures.
I freelance over th? internet and earn about 80-85$ an hour. I was without a job for 7 months but last month my paycheck with big fat bonus was $15000 just working on my computer from my home for 5-6 hours. Here's what i have been doing... www.globe-report.com
So appropriate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRrMu7B1L2I
Frankly, & if you know what I'm talking about, from where I stand, the 'black market', which is probably correlated to Wall St in a 180 degree inverse relationship, is doing exceptional these days. If anyone else wants to chime in about that, feel free.
It's all part of the plan ma brotha. "Expand the economy" is what she said, at all costs. The quickest way is to dilute and dumb down the existing system. Make 'em all exceptional consumers.
What's that? They don't want to work? Well then give them a way to collect disability with ease. Do you have an ailment that precludes you from joining the workforce? Anything really. That's OK, sit home collect your check and hustle the streets. We'll get state and muni LE to lighten up on you so you can hustle ma brotha.
Go!
http://www.ssa.gov/disability/professionals/bluebook/AdultListings.htm
Can you get SSI disability if you have ED, or is that only covered under Mental Disorders?
Just admit it, your porn career was destroyed by the fucking interwebs.
No, but if you're old enough, you can fix it up with Medicare Part D.
The Productive Sector is in a depression.
A local McDonald's is giving workers 28 hours per week. Not 27 or god forbid 31 (ObummerCare).
Imagine what a pain that is to schedule.
What we need is more government direction in both the temporal and spiritual dimensions of our lives.
Yes MOAR government is the always the answer....
and Hillbilly is determined to give it to us.
A combination of daylight savings and islamic prayer where we're required to adjust our clocks forwards and backwards several times daily while facing DC?
This is my third day of a staycation. I'm amazed at the number of people in stores during the work day. The traffic during work hours (9-5) is almost as bad a rush hours. And these aren't seniors, these are people from their teens to thirties, milling around the grocery stores, walmart, whatever that department store is, Khols or something.
During the week I might get out to go to lunch, sometimes, and always figured it was busy because it was lunchtime...but it's always busy.
What I notice at malls is a lot of people are leaving without carrying much of anything. They go to kill time mostly, having had their wallet killed a long time ago by government policies.
I've noticed at several McDs (I eat breakfast there when on the road) that the quality of service has shot up in unbelievable fashion and practically overnight. Used to be that one had a hard time with the latino accents and attitude but now it is whites and blacks who speak clearly and are courteous (please/thank you/have a nice day).
But for the collapse in the price of gasoline,basically a massive tax cut, we would clearly have entered a recession by now.
We are in the political cycle, the greed will pick up shortly thereafter, like it has for how many decades now?
What collapse? Out here in the far west, it went from $4 to $3.50, and now it's back up to $3.85
For every $100 spent on gas, the max savings was the equivalent of a happy meal. Now that it's gone back up, the savings will only buy something off the $2 or less value menu.
Meanwhile, my healthcare premiums increased by $200/mth, and not because I actually consume that fake food.
This is horseshit.
All these fucking charts. They are meaningless. Nothing can be measured with them.
We never left the recession. It's a shit and sugar coated depression and its been that way since 07.
actually, never left quasi-depression. somehow, also felt it necessary to make rich - richer!
Ah, quit yer bitchin'!
Hillarity's got yer back, Jack!
Yes, but why is she holding a knife?
More like 1972.
"You better wake up. The world you live in is just a sugar-coated topping! There is another world beneath it: the real world. And if you wanna survive it, you better learn to PULL THE TRIGGER!" (From "Blade", the movie)
In the real world, the truth is before you all the time, all you have to do is learn to make sense of the lies...
(+100 IndyPat)
"Facts are like a ventrioquist's dummy. Sitting on the knee of a wise man they may be able to utter words of wisdom; elsewhere they say nothing or speak sheer nonsense" Milestones
I believe that Aldous Huxley was the quote--so long ago I can't remember for sure.
Most certainly apply to stastics.
Tick tok, Tick tok,Tick tok....It's really truly amazing how clued out most people are of the pile of shit that is just ahead of us. I'm moving to Thailand where if the worst case scenario happens, I can eat bugs to survive.
What a truly fucked up and corrupt world we live in.
Andrew Zimmern showed me this are way down into Mexico which does spicy bugs in a way which I have been craving ever since..... also way down in Mexico he tried this maggot cheese..... Which just threw me over the edge of why am I watching this show to crave stuff I can't get!!!
That cheese looked unbelievably fab! And it was too... Andrew was gaga over that cheese. Amd also the best bug snack he had ever had at that point.
My wife is Thai and I've eaten many different bugs including thumb sized larva, Honey bee larva (tastes like honey, go figure), ant eggs and ants (the eggs pop in your mouth when you chew) and countless other insects deep fried, in soups and several other ways. Quite delicious actually! Just got to get out of your head!
No shit. My new backpacking tent just arrived today. I've always wanted a second home I could afford...
We down-sized and went for hammocks (double as bivy-sacks) for bad and crappy weather, or when you just want some privacy or don't feel like sleeping feet to the fire under the stars. Got a little hand-shovel so the daughter can bury her business. Got me a snow-shovel, so I can bury mine. Worse-to-worse, we dig in... away from that business.
At just over 3 lbs. I'll trade the weight for a reinforced storm shelter I can trust. :). To offset it, I just ordered a new enlightened equipment 800 fill quilt instead of the bag at just 20 oz.
Yea and if the fed thinks they can raise rates just to stimulate as we head into a recession that will force a recession to become a depression.
And if they pull out QE4 will it not only destroy the currency of the American dollar but it will bankrupt the country trying to bail out the fed that has been bailing out bad political policies for far too long. As since OINK OINK OINK some peeps think they can play all the parts on all the worlds a stage no matter what form of fascism it takes to destroy capitalism! So that fascism can say capitalism failed so that more fascism can ever more destroy the economy!
Yea nothing like quandary economics. I think I was about three years old when I first began to love quandary economics. Used to make my parents play this game with me ... Can u think urself out of this? In which it usually led to yea but problem with that is it is dead money; u will never get ur money out of that bankrupt system. Which always lead back to PM's of which then the government makes gold illegal.
We do have more technology than we had in the sixties though.....
Shame my parents aren't around to play that game with me anymore.
They had me at an older age than most kids parents back then as my dad was almost 50.
A scent of QE4 in the air will complete the inverse head and shoulders and send it all to the moon...queue Bulltard
May as well go full retard and raise rates AND roll out QE4 at the same time. Then the Fed can literally say they did all they could.
Agree with the poster above. We're in quandary economics now. Pretty much screwed no matter what is done.
Well, maybe....but ultimately, QE is DEFLATIONARY---as it increases supply (Mal-investment) and decreases DEMAND (financial repression/NIRP. etc). The essential 'CRISIS' will be DEFLATION and the 'Blow-off' INFLATION. Hedge accordingly...
Bingo!! This is exactly what Dudley NY Fed Pres (former GS) is thinking to save everything. Announce a .125 % increase in FF rate AND announce simultaneous QE 4. And market will soar 5 % in one effing day!
Buy effing SPY June Calls.
understatement of the century
You're preaching to the PPT plumbers.
Hey Amazon did go up 14% or something today, after reporting badly ?
It must be how their important 'new economy' stock is "buyed back" by "the people".
Another thing, why are all the tech CEO's bald ? did they rub off all their hair getting their funding ?
Fiat stress.
Shit, we didn't make it out of the depression.
On the other thread...Atlanta FED's ...GDPnow. Barely positive.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.aspx
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our new GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release.
So effing what? That is GOOD news - don't ya know? 1/10 th % GDP growth should be worth 200 - 500 Dow points over the day of and next day when announced. ZIRP (nay many NIRP in real terms) foreever. And mo QE fer sure. Must save Merika. Must save da markets. Dudley
It's amazing how much our history books were nothing more than sugar coated BS to delude the masses eh?
its tha fuggin weather people im telling ya! May will be peachy! Beleive me!
Beware of The American Curse >>> http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3z
We can't be in a recession because our green shoots ain't been grown yet. Its an "L" shaped recovery. Did Rubini pawn that lame duck company of his off on somebody yet?
I suppose gun and ammo sales are still ramping.
But everythings awesome according to the govt/media propaganda machine!