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Based on the Non-Massaged Data, China is Growing at 3% at Best
Let’s talk briefly about China.
China is thought to be the great growth story of the post-2008 era. China’s economy not only bottomed before the developed world, but by most accounts, China was thought to be the engine that pulled the world out of recession, thanks to its near-clocklike hitting of 7%+ in GDP growth per year.
Today, China remains central to the notion that the world is in recovery. As Japan’s Abenomics gamble sputters out economically while Europe continues to deteriorate and seems at risk of even breaking apart, it is China and the US that are held up to be the last remaining sources of economic growth for global economy.
Of the two, China is the only one thought to be growing at a significant pace. The US’s “recovery” (if it can be called that) is effectively flat lining, producing data points that are normally associated with a recession.
China, on the other hand, is believed to be growing at 7%: not as rapid as the 9% growth we’re used to seeing, but still dramatically higher than any of large country.
Only the whole thing is bogus.
Firstly, China’s economic data points are fraught with accounting gimmicks. Indeed, they are so far removed from reality that back in 2007, current First Vice Premiere of China, Li Keqiang, admitted to the US ambassador to China that ALL Chinese data, outside of electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending is for “reference only.”
Put another way, if you want to get an ACCURATE picture of the true state of China’s economy, you have to ignore GDP and most other metrics, and electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending.
Of the three, rail freight volumes is the most significant as it is the hardest to fake. And according to China’s rail freight volumes, China’s economy is collapsing to levels on par with those last seen during the Asia Financial Crisis (h/t RBS Economics)
Rail traffic is not the only metric showing pronounced weakness. As ZeroHedge noted a few months ago, based on China’s electricity consumption is rolling over, suggesting a pace of growth closer to 3.5%.
As for bank lending, we all know that China’s shadow banking system has expanded at pace beyond anything else in the world. Since 2008, China’s real economy is believed to have grown by $4 trillion. However, its banking assets have more than QUADRUPLED this, growing to nearly $17 trillion (h/t Logan Wright)
Where does this leave China today?
With a weak economy that is at best growing at 3.5% and at worst in full-scale contraction… and a banking system that is leveraged beyond anything else in the world.
China is rife with bubbles in real estate and stocks. Indeed, by some measures, the China stock bubble is even more overvalued that the NASDAQ Tech Bubble of 1999!
And yet, 99% of investors believe that China’s economy is growing rapidly.
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Phoenix Capital Research
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After the electric incentives that companies have gotten to "green" their operations and the impact this has had on coal, it makes sense and it has no real impact on GDP. Good job, you listened to what Li Keqiang said about guessing where the economy was, and swallowed it hook line and sinker you utter utter retard.
Solar is exploding, so is wind... not only is it exploding, but they are FINALLY upgrading the grid to allow it to all come online rather than sit there unused. Coal is getting the shit smashed out of it, and the most wasteful non-profitable industries that have been relying on corruption to survive are getting shut down. The incentives to reduce electricity usage are rather extreme, but let's ignore all that and pretend a bunch of dipshits in suits know what the fuck they are talking about.
don't distort them with facts , it hurts .
don't distort them with facts , it hurts .
Without a doubt, China is an epic disaster in the making...
Never before has any society blown so much borrowed money on so much useless capacity and shameful opulence serving no useful purpose. To look at what those people have done is to stare depravity directly in the face. The sheer numbers of impoverished Chinese who have built so much they will never enjoy--but DO get to look at--is an indictment rivaling the slave labor pressed into service by Egyptian Pharos centuries ago.
And the western corporate machine is also culpable.
Some day, barring any real recovery in western consumption (ain't happened yet), China will collapse with the force of a major sea floor earthquake, that will generate an socioeconomic tsunami so great it may well swallow whatever is left of the old global order.
From all I know, it's that bad...
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lol yeah Go hump your father you goddam faggot.
The Soviet Union was looking good as well-- right up the day when the wheels fell off and it was over.
Assuming China crashes abruptly, who will be the next challenger to step into the ring with old Uncle Sam?
lol yeah junkie anything else you want to joke
lol yeah junkie anything else you want to joke
India is the only country that has a chance. It is at the point where china was about 8 years ago and has the potential to grow just as fast.
I freelance over th? internet and earn about 80-85$ an hour. I was without a job for 7 months but last month my paycheck with big fat bonus was $15000 just working on my computer from my home for 5-6 hours. Here's what i have been doing... www.globe-report.com
Don't assume that we're doing well. Our numbers are heavily cooked too, and you can find the real numbers if your willing to really dig down....
So get the massage for the Happy Ending!
Phoenix the Perma-Bear remains bearish.... one day you might be (partially) right... maybe.
"China remains central to the notion that the world is in recovery."
You realize, or course, that "Recovery" is that part of the hospital that includes "Critical" and "Intensive Care".