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"I’m Not Crazy, I’m Scared" - Why For One Trader, This Time It Is Different
Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, author of "Trader's Notes" is painfully accurate with his latest take on the "markets."
I’m Not Crazy, I’m Scared
The SPX flirted with all-time highs. The Nasdaq Index made 15 year highs; Chinese equities, and so many other equity indices are flying. Bonds sold off this week, but the German 10-year yield is still ~17bps, the U.S. 10-year yield unable to get beyond 2%, and Greek bonds had a two-day rally that would be truly impressive if it wasn’t on volume that made it just an exercise moving wide bid/offer spreads, representing sentiment not trading.
The USD is selling off on the view that Greece is saved, the Fed is scared, and a “we can’t sit with positions because it never works” mentality. The only really new thing the market needs to digest is that commodities may be nearing a bottom
Happy days seemingly, but there have been some very discordant and troubling comments from the creme de la creme of smart - and big - investors.
Over the last three days, we have reported that some of the most important investment voices in the world are more than a little scared about the ravenous appetite for risk playing out in the market, and the fact that they have been ignored is beyond unnerving. Central banks are driving all investment decisions, and what this implies is that they are in this trade so deeply that there is no obvious or practical exit.
Over the course of this week we have heard Larry Fink of Blackrock talking about the severe risks of investing in Europe; Bill Gross of Janus saying German bonds are the short trader’s dream; Pimco warning that markets have not addressed the potential of a Fed tightening (I remember 1994); the incoming CEO of Allianz, that TWO trillion dollar asset manager, saying, “We see generally meager growth prospects, political dangers and risks of a stock market crash.” Even Abby Cohen thinks it is a stock pickers world, not a buy anything and kick back world. And yet, the market didn’t even blink.
What is different this time?
Central Banks and their sovereign wealth funds have become the major players dominating market activity. One central banker after another has admitted they are fixated on market reaction to their comments and actions. They are relying on markets blessing their actions even though it was market dysfunction (and regulatory malfeasance) that brought us here. This is a dangerous situation. The focus must return to the REAL economy; we cannot trade our way out of past mistakes.
And we must look at commodities. One thing central bankers do, because forward curves drive all their forecasts, is extrapolate ad infinitum current trends into the future. No central bank in the world got oil right, and that is arguably the most important commodity in the world. Well, oil has made new YTD highs. Why do you think TIPs auctions have been blowing off the shelves? If central bankers have this wrong, their forecasts are wrong, and the Fed, for one, will be way behind the curve. I posit that a lot of central bankers will be tacking right if Brent holds above $63.
So the big question to ponder is why all these very smart people who control trillions of dollars of assets don’t seem to be voting with their money. If the biggest fund managers and thought leaders of the world were radically changing their asset allocations, wouldn’t we see it? Not if central banks are all on the other side of the trade. Maybe they think they can just hold to maturity. A wise central banker told me I should learn to live with central banks being the dominant force in the market, whether I like it or not. I, unhappily, think he is right. Oh, how I wish Louis Rukeyser could get them on his couch.
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What a surprise..
And anybody who says "thought leaders" is a douche ..
Goes with "win win" and "out of the box"...
Forecast is knowing the future - not possible.
STFATH and Stack.
Oh just relax and it'll feel good after awhile
Now, “interbank” lending has gone into negative interest rates which is beyond lunacy. Banks which are theoretically run by “smart” people are paying to lend and of course willfully being paid to borrow. The only explanation I can come up with is that collateral has become so scarce that a short squeeze has resulted. Any institution that needs collateral is forced to pay the market rate which now includes locking in a guaranteed loss. Business in Europe has become so poor, no one can, much less wants to borrow anything. “Debt saturation” is where we came from in 2007-08 and further down the rabbit hole to where we are now, inverted interest rates on ALL levels …now even between “pros”?
I view what is now happening as “eating into the bone”. Debt has become so highly priced, locking in guaranteed losses is now seen as “wisdom”. When viewed in history, the current mania will not be seen as a tribe or nation gone mad, it will be seen as the entire human population losing sight of their senses and allowing the lunatics to run the insane asylum. I have no idea what the event will be to wake up the world but the event is out there and its realization will be akin to awakening from a nightmare in a cold sweat.
“Debt is better than money” is becoming the current belief in the world. In fact, with negative interest rates it can be said the world now values debt greater than money. This cannot be so because of the simple fact that actual paper notes can be held out of the system and not “discounted”. How can owning debt today which promises less currency in the future be worth more than more currency today? The fear of loss is so great that currency itself is being discounted versus debt. If you think this through, it says “everything is worth nothing” because the currency itself is bad and losing confidence. Maybe this is why we are seeing a push from all around the world to go “cashless” and fully digitize? This would be closing and locking the only remaining door other than making precious metals illegal. The only way for this to be “normal” is if the lunatics are running the asylum …they surely are!
Well, not sure if this is a sign of the Apocalypse, but I am starting to edit my Long Pig Cookbook.
pods
'This Time It Is Different'
lol, normally I am on a site more than a few weeks before the hosts start using my quotes in their articles.
"This Time It's Different".
Not for the perpetrators. They'll get away with more lucre than ever before as they parachute themselves into the unholy land or some other devil's paradise far away from the fray which they caused.
And when the dust settles, the sheeple will willfully allow them back in to "fix" everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3Qw5xVn7c0
Debt is trading future real GDP for fiat worthless currency today.
Debt contracts economies do not be fooled by the stratospheric rise in stocks
If I wanted to control a nation I would lend them my fiat (which is worthless to me I can just go print some more). Down the road once they are good and addicted to my fiat I would require their parks, their government buildings, a taxation on the people, there food,and I would have done it all with something that was worthless!
I would determine who ran their government and who came into power in the elections by merely threatening to withdraw my fiat.
I would make sure that my fiat was not linked to any other store of wealth such as gold or silver which might bring competition to my control over society.
There is nothing that I could not do as long as people borrowed my fiat it from my agent banks.
I could contract the economy at will, or cause it to grow,
When you cut and paste from Bill Holter, you should at least give him some credit.
agree...links are good to widen our reading.
"The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national autodetermination practiced in past centuries.”
David Rockefeller, founder of the Trilateral Commission, in an address to a meeting of The Trilateral Commission, in June, 1991.
ask david how and why nelson and john were killed.
Always kiss before you Fuck.
Or you're a Central Banker.
Yes. Please give credit where credit is due.
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/debt-is-better-than-cash-whos-running-this...
The only way money comes into existence is thru debt. Essentially, it seems, central banks have lowered the usury rates or cost to bring money(debt) into the system.
Not to point out the obvious or anything, but has anyone worked-out the process-flow diagram for what happens when we are given what is supposed to be...
A claim on the productive output of society
The placeholder for half-way through an exchange of things of value (which are also known as wealth)
Stable enough to store for a 100-years and be used then if needed
Earned by adding something of value to society (even if that is just a way to improve the productivity of society for some)
...has then been replaced by free, or even less-than-free, debt?
Well, other than how the God of the congregations of heaven is less-than-pleased when the gold of society is made-to-be-corrodible, debased, diluuted and is kept in piles by those who can and do durring the end times. This has been brought to my understanding in part by the beginning of chapter 6 of the second-covennant book of James; admittedly taken a bit out of context.
As far as I can tell, there is a difference between...
Working to produce a more productive society (and so enabling society to free up people to pursue other interests while having compassion for those during times of change)
Enabling the automation of control (in part through corporate capital-expenditures on automation investments)
Those with the same God from the books of the second-covennant exercising: Lovingkindness; Peace-that-supasses-understanding; Patience; Gentleness; Self-control
...and I believe the difference is in our intentions and also in our chosen leadership; charactor is a good definition of our intentions expressed through our time from one moment to the next, but methods can also demonstrate who's influence we exhibit. No doubt which of us knows who's leadership each of us decides to be under will get sorted out over time, but idividuals are not able to descern the intentions of other individuals, as those intentions are with God or not and God knows that because God has tried to tell us, as I-am-that-I-am that He knew ahead-of-time.
So again, who owns the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and how do we prove that? I don't know what any particular process-flow diagram might show, but I blame Lucifer for corrupting godly methods and for fighting God's-love with some corrupted form and application of pure reason. That is allowed. Until that is not.
Good post, but irrelevant. History is very clear on the outcome motherfucker.
If they pay you to hold the debt-they can post you as collateral AND hold the "debt" off the books accordingly. A "win-win" for the bankers.
"in the land of the indebted,, the one with cash is king"
I know the future: Money will be printed, we will be fucked.
I know the future: Money will be printed, we will be fucked.
True, but they are currently working on getting rid of that silly physical currency thing....
Everyone knows that part - now please tell us in what positition(s) it will occur?
If you are scared then you are crazy to still be in the trade. Go to cash. Oh, you think you can beat everyone else to the exit eh? Well, when the end comes and you ALL rush to the door, the implosion will be impressive.
I don't believe that this guy is a douche, 'thought leaders' is not the same as 'win win' 'out of the box' 'new paradigm' 'synergies' crap.
I freelance over th? internet and earn about 80-85$ an hour. I was without a job for 7 months but last month my paycheck with big fat bonus was $15000 just working on my computer from my home for 5-6 hours. Here's what i have been doing... www.globe-report.com
it is what it is.
I'm not scared. I'm crazy.
Fear is bad, shame is worse.
The only shame left is losing large proportions of other people's money.
(Unless you've got another position lined up.)
Such shame is offset if you skim enough for yourself in the process of losing someone else's money.
Corzine have any shame? Oh, that's right. He didn't lose other people's money. He stole it.
Good!
As I've said here before: Sanity is over rated.
It only makes you go crazy.
In order to be sane in an insane world is to be insane.
"It is no measure of success to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society" - Krishnamurti
There was some movie with Clive Owen, the title I don't remember. Anyway, there was a quote that went along the lines of:
"If people weren't hiding behind depression they'd have to face reality and reality is too god damn depressing."
Chillax, it's just Gross and Fink talking their books. Buy like a Chinese housewife!
Allianz asset management business isn't a wacky hedge fund , most of their funds or products are meant to track the index and portfolio managers are measured on how they perform against a particular index / risk . They ll never be contrarian but simply just buy what's in the index
Similar for pimco or Janus , if the fund mandate is to buy bunds they cannot short the fucking bunds ...
Mayb a 10% of all the assets held by Allianz are discretionary to the manager . But even there a portfolio manager is not a ceo . A pm will look to make money every day ( thus following the trend ) no to open major contrarian positions which will happen at some point but if it takes 12 months before market go his way he made no p&l whatsoever.
The only players who can revert this trends are major hedge funds , but again investors who gives money to funds expect to see monthly p&l and not major risky contrarian trades.
But at some point it will turn , and when it turns it will be chaos as everyone will turn at the same time and the exit door won't be big enough
Oh shit! It's turtles all the way down!
Being crazy makes life easier, it's getting that way that's hard
There's some time left. The crash will be engineered to the election cycle.
With the message being: We need someone with experience in the Whitehouse to see us through these periloous days.
So, keep watching, it won't be immediate, but the timing will be carefully calculated.
The phone rings at 3:00 o'clock in the morning.
We just gave a half of our uranium to the enemy, and you didn't see a damn dime of that money.
Don't worry - the enemy will be sending that uranium back in due time.
I know this one. Duck and cover.
reminds me of when we were kids... worrying over the russians nuking us, and the schools making sure they created scared, dependent future people. My son came home today and told me he would be dead in twenty years because all the world's oceans will rise due to global warning, wiping out where everyone lives. He said they showed a movie about it, and some kids were crying. He is 10 and in fifth grade. fucking pisses me off to no end. I told him not to worry, they are pople who don't think for themselves and they have no idea what they are talking about. thankfully, he still trusts his old man(47) more than his stupid ass fucking teachers.
Quack.....
Why do you think that Hitlery's "reset button" said overcharge in Russian. It was an inside joke, not a gaffe.
If so, you think maybe that is because we moved on from blowing things up next to uranium and sending that at people so changing ownership of some sends a different message? Which is worse...
Turning our face before they might strike and offering something to strike with
Trying to let others know we may be pretty much done throwing uranium at others
Sharing the wealth that is uranium
???
No doubt there are other options, but...
I think you're onto something.
Probably trot out all the old trusted and true designers, using the old tried and true methods which won't work this time around
Oh absolutely. This is custom-made for Hillary. The "remember when Clinton was in office and you got double digit raises and your 401K went thru the roof" ads will appear soon and Hillary will be pitched as "experienced" which is a laugh. If it looks like they can't get her pushed thru, then the fall back is Jeb and gosh darn those rascally Republicans will be in charge when in fact it's just two sides of the same coin.
I still don't believe Obama is leaving office. A good false flag and they will have "no choice" about suspending elections. There have already been a couple of trial balloons since 911 to judge the reaction of the American people. Remeber how Giuliani tried to stay in office after 911 and the sheeple thought it was for the best? It wasn't long after that when Bush talked about having to suspend the constitution if there was a national emergency.
I think it's still a little too early for that in 2016. Need to disarm the population more and/or induce a large wave of nationalism (not just a fake one against some fuzzy terrists) first.
Yep, El Presidente is in for life.
Which is why there's only one Dem running, Hitlary. Just a show, zero candidates might actually wake up some people.
Respectifully, I must disagree. any attemp to stay in office will create a shitstorm from anyone with two brain cells left. not even in the midst of the financial crisis did we hear a peep about a third term for bush, and its timing was perfect... to get Obama elected.... wait, maybe you are on to something...
still, i don't see it. But really? it would be so audacious.
Heard that for the midterms, then the presidential and then again at the next midterms. Please stop trying to predict when it all ends.
Hope you are right but highly doubt it. Anyone who is watching Jade Helm closely, can't help but be alarmed. They are obviously training for the roundup of dissidents, the disarmament of Americans, and the roll out of martial law. Do you really think the world economy has twelve months left in it?
I gave the economy 6 months back in 2008, yet here we are.
If a Republican is elected in 2016, they will crash it in 2018. If Hillary ie elected, they will keep the party going for another term.
"One central banker after another has admitted they are fixated on market reaction to their comments"
This is not your father's Federal Reserve. It's run by a bunch of academic PhD Keynesians hell-bent to force the economy to go their way. Even if they ruin the lives of 90% of the population.
I really think most people, from Joe sixpack to politicians to central bankers, operate in a selfish manner in that they basically keep things afloat for their 70-80 yrs on this planet. As long as the hot potato doesn't blow up in *their* face then they have had a decent life. Screw the future generations.
THe Constitution and the Free Market are ideas of stupid old men.
Only cutting edge academics with fancy theories...and unlimited money creation can cure this
(we are told)
If you are scared, all you need to do is pull out.
It's all in the timing.
Ahhh the old pull and pray eh?
Pull and spray is much more enoyable.
Just try not to get it in her eyes.
Or the back of her head...
or on her blue dress......
That strategy worked out great for me. I have three beautiful children.
Yes, pull out now. What's stopping you, greed?
"Go With the Flow" even though the roadside sign reads "Niagre Falls Ahead"
Niagara Falls,
sloooooowly I turned,
step by step,
inch by inch.......
I've got some cash in a 401K that is currently parked on the sidelines. Investing it seems crazy, but as we have seen for a while now a frothy market can always get frothier. Don't want to take the penalty by withdrawing it. Don't really like it being in USD for the long haul either. I predict when I finally say "fuck it, I'll put it in the market even though it's insane" that's when we see the market crash! :-)
If left in the government hands/401k or IRA, regardless of its disposition you may well end up de facto with treasury bonds.
I sincerely hope you mean the Canadian prog rock band and not the oxycontin radio blowhard.
IRA metals...not as good as stacking your damn self, but better than a dollar-broken MMF.
No need to slam Rush .... some of his advertisers sell PMs .... that's a good thing !
Fuck that mic-wielding Manatee...I'd wager adverts on his shows are for premium-charging rip-off houses anyway.
The manatee is a fat zio gatekeeper drug addict.
Otherwise, he'd be just another loser nobody.
Not a fan, however, the "manatee" in question has been at the very top of his field for over 25 years.
His net worth is +400 million, made through hard work.
Where do you rank yourself in your own chosen field?
Admire that which is admirable.
not a fan either, but if you think quantity and quality are equivalents, go fuck a fat girl or listen to some Justin Bieber records.
harsh...
By that logic, I should respect Pelosi and Reid too.
I love them both and have huge respect for both. Doesn't mean either are perfect, but neither are any of us.
Actually, the band IS, in fact, perfect.
Personally if it were me, I would take a portion of your 401k cash and put it to work. That way you are at least getting some sort of participation. Two things you have to remember 1) The fed has pumped trillions into the system to prop up the markets, chances are they aren't going to let it crash. 2) If it does crash then your 401k is toast anyway, regardless of what you own. Hopefully you have some PMs for insurance purposes if it ever does fall apart. That's just my view for what it's worth.
Yeah I have PM in my hands which is the only way I'll hold PM's. Don't like it in an IRA, most of all because it's still not really mine, just like the cash in the 401K. If (correction, "when") the government makes a move towards claiming/converting 401K money, I will be long gone out of the 401K.
Another thing you need to remember is that if .gov decides to make a move on 401ks and IRAs it will be too late to get out. The gates have been put in place (for your own good of course) since 2008 to prevent escape. If .gov does make a move, there will be no cashing out.
It's becoming more and more clear that all the governments understand that this whole house of cards can come crashing down with even a small economic event as the trigger point. This is why they are making moves to trap people financially (bailouts with tax dollars, more coming I'm sure) and prevent bank runs (max cash withdrawls). This way the politicians feel like they are covering all their bases but they also secretly know that when you paint people into a corner it often ends up in massive civil unrest which is why you get stuff like Jade Helm. Unfortunately for the politicians and bureaucrats, no matter how much planning and thought go into the effort to control the masses, you will eventually create a tipping point which cannot be overcome......I believe we are getting closer to this with each passing day.
Don't know if you're aware but until you take it out it's actually theirs, not yours....food for thought.
I would (and should) personally take it out now under favorable tax circumstances, even though you'll pay a penalty. Probably should have done that a couple years back but I keep thinking I'll get to 59.5 before the whole thing implodes.
Tax circumstances won't get any more favorable than they are now....i.e. it can only get worse from here so getting it out is something to think about.
I'm in the same boat, kicking myself I didn't put cash to use. I am trying to be patient for the inevitable, I think it will be a tremendous buying opportunity. In the meantime, I have to live with the fact that my principles haven't made me much money, but at least I sleep well at night.
You're not alone!!! I've been 'parked' for a couple of years now anticipating a crash if I invested my money. I wish I knew the answer but the markets are so rigged, so manipulated and the money so concentrated..??? Just a matter of time
I gave up on the 401K long ago and just paid the penalty, and I have been "investing" in "self-sufficiency" with the money. I don't regret it. My quality of life has only improved, and the reality is that "retirement" will no longer have meaning for 98% of the population. What I need is the resources for basic production so I can pass them on to my children, who will - as was done in ages past, take those resources from me to provide for themselves and for me in my dotage as I contribute what I still can. Also keep in mind money can't buy everything - especially the skill set to survive in a vastly different environment. That requires years of learning... as does integrating yourself into a community that can band together for protection and doesn't see you as a refugee outsider.
The current "investment" environment where losses are BUILT IN is what is is. Accept it. The penalty is a built in loss on your IRA/401K. If you wait too long, it will be 100% loss as they freeze the account and stop you from taking any of it.
I feel trying to time this storm to get "rich" and trying to convert those piles of paper into "useful things you know how to use" as everyone else heads for that same door is going to be very, very risky. There is a reason they tell you to start with beans, then bullets and only then proceed to bullion. If you have all those and still have the extra resources to play this risk, then more power to you.
Its not the end of the world. It is the wholesale conversion of the first and second world to third world standards of living. Being able to protect and produce for your basic needs yourself makes you "rich" in that environment- and in the end its the kind of wealth that really matters.
Stopped contributing to the 401-k in 2008, anticipating something else would fall. Then the clamps came down to where you basically have to quit your job to have any access to your cash.
Since 2008 my money has more than doubled. I still watch it and do reallocations, but basically consider it lost and treat it like a fantasy stock investment.
Got a statement today (tossed and it's under a mound of potato peelings) that said, based on my balance, I should expect $353 a month from age 67 to 93.
However some of the listed assumptions:
Inflation will average 2% until age 67, after which it will average 4%
Until age 67 you will earn an average of 7.5% per year, then 4% per year until age 93.
Problem is post 2008 collapse...
without global QE and constant central bank open market operations, the whole western ponzi system will fail in spectacular fashion in the same way it would have in 2008, except now the original cause of the problem [too much debt] is far greater.
Look at the Fed asset purchase program and project it back into the economy - that is how much bad debt would be getting written off each and every month since the 2008 (at the bare minimum, excluding leverage). Easy to tell that by this date already there would be none of the old economy left standing. It would be 100% consumed by the depression and rightfully so.
By playing the QE games they've extended the obligations outstanding to the magnitude well beydong the size of the US economy and that means the debts will have to be written off globally. It means WW3.
Isn't this what the central banks asked for? To be technocratic overlords, in control of everything across the entire world?
Well, they have it. They control all markets, all prices and all governments (except possibly Iran).
If anything fails, there is only one place to look. There are no black swans. They have planned everything, even the constant wars.
So, show what you can do, you shitheads! It is all yours. And don't you dare ever make a mistake. You wanted control, so you have the responsibility as well.
Exactly. Emergency and systemic failure were the doorways for the Central Banks to takeover.
The likes of Larry Kudlow .... who lives central bank intervention...but applaudes himself a "free marketer"
should at least stop pretending ...
Short stawks .... buy gold calls .... cash out on sufficient calls .... to take delivery on some of the crap scrap coin melt bars .... and wait until an armored car delivers it to your door ! LOLOLOLOLOLOL
http://rt.com/usa/252573-biden-f35-israel-military/ US to deliver F-35 jets to Israel to maintain military edge. Well maybe they'll pay for parts? Nah
Yes, with aid money from the US taxpayer.
Maybe they think they can just hold to maturity. A wise central banker told me I should learn to live with central banks being the dominant force in the market,
No shit,,Bernanke said that the day he started buying up mortgages, now CB own housing industry,,,,whats next usa oil reserves???
Dont be scurred pussy, just embrace the hard life that's coming.
Belongs on inspirational kitten poster. ^^
Dont be scurred pussy, just embrace the hard life that's coming.
Just remember that it's patriotic to give your bank account to soulless bankers that have made really bad decisions.
Then Rubin, Clinton, and Gramm must be the most "patriotic" Americans in history!
It will be a great day with these central bank bastards and thier government chumps crash and burn regardless of the consiquenses to the general public.
The general public is the government.
nice recap. next time could you perhaps zero in on something we readers at ZH don't already know
What's the problem?
Yellen has admitted she looks at the markets and doesnt want to do anything that will disrupt them.
BUT...the longer she waits to return to "normalcy", the more severe the impact of any rate rise...
the markets will go up and up, the reaction to a rate rise will go up and up...
THUS...she is making things worse by not doing anything...
"If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice" - Rush
" Nobody gets out of here alive " - Jim Morrison
Yeah, Jim Morrison. These lyrics of his came into my thoughts yesterday. Funny, at that same moment I thought about the old zerohedge. I've been reading the postings here since 2013 though it seems more like a decade instead of 2 short years. Seriously interesting characters who used to post here a lot don't post here anymore. What happened?
"What have they done to the earth?
What have they done to our fair sister?
Ravaged and plundered
and ripped her and bit her
Stuck her with knives in the side of the dawn
Tied her with fences and dragged her down
I hear a very gentle sound..."
The "seriously interesting characters" probably moved on from fretting about what is coming to doing something about it. There are only so many hours in a day, and yelling "fire" over and over to people who refuse to listen is not a very productive use of them compared to repairing engines,tending animals, growing things and building relationships that will endure the times coming.
VisionQuest,
Some were banned (after the implementation of the new racial rules). some were disappointed in the quality of articles and banter and announced their departure. IMO, some just got tired of the daily doom/gloom predictions that have yet to transpire. Sometimes, to maintain your sanity, you just have to walk away for a brief period to recharge the batteries.
but but but... just remember what that great philosopher Vanessa Black once said:
IT'S FRIDAY! FRIDAY! GOTTA GET DOWN ON FRIDAY!
so in 20mins when the "markets" open the algs will start their drunken buying again...
if you're scared, hit the eject button and unwind the portfolio before the rest of the chicken littles do it
Everything is at stake here. The entire future of capitalism is hanging in the balance. The wealthy class must feel comfortable in the markets for the “trickle down” theory to work. The next rung down the ladder must also see their 401Ks rise every month. The lower classes do not matter in any of this, but they are kept from burning the cities down through the use of massive entitlements. Every trick in the book will be employed through the medium of loose credit. The fools buy new toys and the rich buy back shares of stock. Win-win.
This has to go on in perpetuity. A person entering the work force now and “investing” for their future in the casino must be assured of Dow 20K, 25K, 30K…and beyond, or else they will stay out and we will spiral down. New money is constantly needed for the Ponzi. Bankers will keep the flow going. This cannot be all all that hard for the bears to understand? Their only hope is the knowledge that trees will never grow to the sky. Millions of immigrants will not be the new consumers as the oligarchs hope, but an ever greater drain on the system, until it all collapses. The constant hype of new toys from Silicon Valley will end with a whimper…and that will signal the end is close. The elites will scream for more intervention and more QE. Fear vs. greed.
The "trickle down theory" began with the British monarchy, not with Reagan.
In particular, there is a balcony on the outer wall of Windsor Castle where, once a year, the common people would gather on the grounds of the castle to demonstrate their patriotism and loyalty to the Kingdom. The British King would first drink two or three bottles of the finest and most expensive champagne, wait a half an hour, and then emerge on the balcony, whip out Mr. Happy, and trickle down on the peasants.
Trickle Down economics works pretty much the same way today.
There is no such thing as "Trickle-down" theory. Its a euphemism for Supply-Side theory, but that theory never posits that wealth put in at the top will "trickle down" to lower classes. It only suggests that more opportunities to earn a living will be created than otherwise.
If a gold meteor lands in your back yard and you use it to feed the poor for 10 years, in year 11 they are still hungry. If instead you invest it in making something of value to others, you provide others with the opportunity to create something of value ( wealth) that they otherwise would not have had. Likewise, you are creating a thing of value that would otherwise not exist. And that process can, in theory, provide for those people for the rest of their lives vs. simply a span of a decade
Yes, you can quibble about the quality or quantities of such opportunities and the relative share of the new wealth created and how it is distributed, but the point is the new wealth is created in one circumstance, and not in the other. In one circumstance you argue about how to divide up the pie, in the other, you argue about how to divide up the potentially infinite amount of pies that you now are capable of making.
That wealth must be destroyed ( food, fuel, rust) by entropy is a universal law of physics and you cant change that.
That it is easier for a few wealthy men to agree to start a business than it is for 10,000 poor men to agree to do so. You can't change that either. It is an inescapable law of human nature.
Yes, the "Government is just a name for things we do together at gunpoint" crowd will want to use that method to organize the 10,000 men, but that that point you are dealing with just another small group of men making the decisions.
Its is another inescapable law of human nature that power corrupts, and that both small groups of men given this decision making power are likely to become corrupt.
Therefore, given a choice I would rather a small group of corrupt men who can't compel me to join them are making those decisions, vs. allowing the small group of corrupt men who can use force to compel to make those decisions.
You can only choose from the available options. "There Ain't no such thing as a Free Lunch" and "human nature" ensure that in a modern society, those are the only two choices. The Pigs (be they Wealthy Individuals or politicians) always end up living in the farm house. The only choice is how much power they have over those outside the house.
In both this comment and your other above you seem to hint at knowledge of 'tribal wealth'. I'm wondering if you're familiar with the writings of Daniel Quinn? Here's Quinn from my Ishmael on tribal wealth.
https://books.google.com/books?id=6te_NSe3j3kC&pg=PA180&lpg=PA180&dq=Dan...
If you haven't already read him, you should.
Some of this is my fault, I'm afraid. When IWM algos heard last week I was switching to trade the QQQs, they mourned for 30 milliseconds, then promptly informed their brothers at the NASDAQ, who planned the 11:51 'surprise' after getting CB approval.
On my IB screen as we speak, QQQs sit at the R2 pivot pre-market ..
"My God, I have never seen such a day. Is it finally over?"
"Yes Ms. Yellin. We have saved the markets. The Fed Reserve owns the entire planet."
But we had to hock the sun
Double post thanks to my iPad
Every time they say they are scared, that means there is more room to go further up.
Buy, buy, buy, The FED can not allow the market to crash or TSWHTF. The markets will never go down. The U.S. FED, & Gov. will FAIL if the market goes down, that ain't going to happen.
the SHTF in Wiemar and they wouldn't let the markets go down either. The government DID fail, and the German people elected Hitler and gave him special powers to "fix it"
That which can't go on, won't. At some point this will stop because MATH. Buy, buy , buy and yes you might end up a big pile of paper - but that paper is supposed to represent the wealth created by actual human beings, and eventually it will take a big pile of paper to purchase the human efforts required to make a pink slime burger.
Reality cares nothing for your feelings. Plan accordingly.
yep - the US gubbamint is a market maker - good job barry - all happy now that you are re-elected? kickbacks treating you well?
you fucking asshole!!!
< - I'm not scared, I'm stupid.
<- I'm not scared, I just don't give a shit.
After 2000 I didn't give a shit. After Lehman I was scared (actually when GWB said, and I paraphrease, 'free market capital is not dead' I knew we were in deep doodoo). After Snowden I got Angry. In 2014 I started to take antidepressents. In 2015 I started taking two antidepressents simultaneously. I'm artificially happy day and night now. Go Yellen Bitchez! - the Minsky moment has always been a blast. Meep meep mother f*&kers - it's September 3rd 1929!
The snake is eating its own tail.
A new Phoenix is about to emerge.
We are witnessing the birth of a new creation.
Old magic.
Astrophysics with a high-speed twist. In 1998 I read the news about "the accelerating universe." THIRTEEN years later, the men who discovered this totally unexpected action were awarded the Nobel for their research. During that interval tremendous efforts were made to disprove the discovery. But it turns out to be true. I have searched everywhere for any discussion of what the effects of universal acceleration might be on day-to-day living here on earth. Nada. If the relative speed of every particle in the physical universe is accelerating, then the second hand on the clock would still sweep thru its circle at what appears to be a normal rate but it, along with everything (and everyone) else would be accelerating. Is that what "time is flying" means these days? I read somewhere that back when railroad transportation was new, scientists of that day said human blood would boil in the veins at 25 mph. What could be the effect of this accelerating universe on human existence?
Scientists are calling it The Great Rip.
The universe is expanding like a bubble filling with air (dark matter?).
Maybe there is a hole in the universe that cannot be plugged?
Someday it's going to pop.
Maybe bubbles are the norm?
We are all just one big bubble waiting to pop.
what is set to emerge is great suffering and death.
Mr Amerikan Pathos - John Stewart is set to leave the Daily Show the first week of August.
At this time, that is likely a better indicator of what is gong to happen and when than any technical.
Frankly, why should anything change over the Summer and into October County?
Nobody can use metrics to trade anything anymore.
It's all just going "Up."
Under the circumstances, the only long term indicator is whether or not Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are getting juiced by Chinese fetal tissues and Singularity-Calico gear and are actually un-aging.
We're living in a hubris age of Science Fiction, exemplified by The Krugman's childlike fondness of The Foundation.
If no billionaire lives in your county, state or country then you have been written off politically, economically, and genetically.
No amount of passive investing is going to come to your rescue.
They'll pull the rug out on markets and then lower the Reg A accredited investor rules under the JOBS Act to collect the last trillion in another bubble - raise $50 million for your garage kickstarter - two turntables and a microphone.
Just like oligarchs stole the assets of Russia, the FED is stealing the assests of the west.... when will they claim ownerhsip of all the corporations or demand seats at the board?
Paying people to borrow and penalizing people for saving while preparing to ban cash...definitely an alternate reality.
who says , you can't take it with you when you go
with negative % rates
it's gone by the time you go...
Why is the presumption that central banks must exit?
They have assumed control of the economy (there is no fake economy vs a real economy).
Really. Now he speaks up....where was this guy 2-3-4-5 years ago? I can guess where ..... AT THE PIG TROUGH! They all knew. But now they realize that they got in bed with the DEVIL. Ah, what a shame they never read ....
The Goose that Laid the Golden Egg!
Now the goose is dead !!
Not that they want them but banksters are going to own your underwear by the time they are done printing. They are printing and buying up the world. Hope they can afford to increase my FAFSA this year.
All these guys are scared of two things:
Losing what they already have and missing out on what they don't yet have.
Hence no one wants to pull out even though there are limits to how much more they can have.
he's scared because of what bill gross and larry fink said? what a putz!
Central Banksters are undoubtedly the most shit-for-brains retard sandwich eating delusional out-of-touch-with-reality jerk offs this World has ever produced. Furthermore, they all lost their control over the Global 'economy' on March 10th 2008 and CAT, as a bellweather metric of the Global economy, is proof that they don't have a FUCKING clue what they are doing when it comes to investment long term. Lastly, Central Banksters are NOT Psychiatrists, but they sure know how to molest people en masse just like the Roman Catholic Church child molester priests!!!
Pope Ruckyser is a douchebag Central Bankster people molester that has his eyes on your assets instead of your ass.
How wise is it now to be a central banker, pursuing the same old enslaving strategies, whenever market leaders and violent organisations recognise them as the enemy to attack and destroy?
And that puts a whole new face on the notion of "How to make friends and influence peoples", methinks.
Central Pissing-
it all away!
The focus must return to the REAL economy...
Indeed. I agree.
However, most of the real economy in the USSA is... GONE... moved to places where labor, taxes and regulation are cheaper.
And so, sure, indeed... pay attention to the real economy. But to expect much progress will require re-creating, or better yet, creating from whole cloth a huge number of new produtive activities that cannot be simply "moved overseas".
Of course, personally I don't care. I don't identify with the USSA, much less the evil empire. I'm over that... way over that. But for anyone who cares about such things... for any region of the planet... my point is valid.
But as always, I suggest people think about this on a personal level... figure out how to produce something new that cannot be cheaply, quickly, easily replicated elsewhere. At least not so quickly that you can't make yourself wealthy first, then create a "new and improved" version that keeps you ahead indefinitely (at least in the "leading edge" portion of the market you create, which is all I ever cared about).
As long as we're on the topic of figuring out this stuff on an individual level rather than national (or other collective level), open your context to "the whole planet" (if not further, as in my case), and figure out where you can deliver the greatest value anywhere on the planet. Then move there.
Or just resign yourself to never achieving any significant portion of your potential. Just remember, "you coulda been great, you just chose no to... moron".
I'm starting to think 'this' could continue for decades. The USSR and her satellite states existed for decades with even less economic reality. There was next to no internal dissent there and likewise here. However, it is noted that the Gulag provided a safety value for dissent in the SU. In Amerika, sheepdom is next to godliness.
nice to be able to agree with you.
my thesis is the entire system has been "perfected". in any digital function all that matters is the model balances so you get a picture on the tv monitor and the entire global money system magically continues apparently unabated by any tsunamis, hurricsanes, tornadoes, volcanoes, war, famine and pestilence. it defies the bible. only an asteroid strike can knock it off balance.
i think they are onto a really genius plan if they can pull it off. the key is to derisk the dollar while shifting the risk onto another or even a broader instrument(china just asked to be included in the sdr). that is the best, most monetarily prudent, way to continue to kick the can down the road.
don't fight the fed. as insane as they may seem, they are the only sane game in town.
Within the human world, everything will continue to be controlled by the ability to enforce frauds, which does not appear likely to suddenly stop. However, the destruction of the natural world will trump the social polarization.
We are our own "asteroid strike ... " Just in slightly more slow-motion. The hubris of the banksters could start a war using weapons of mass destruction, that went out of control ??? However, merely business as usual, such as now based on totalitarian agriculture, etc., is also enough, over a slightly long time frame, to erode itself to oblivion.
The "sanity" of the Federal Reserve Board is that "sanity" of being able to continue to successfully operate civilization controlled by enforcing frauds. For thousands of years, it was possible to achieve social successes through being able to back up lies with violence. However, that was only possible within the context of a natural world, with an abundance of natural resources, that could be taken for granted.
The ability to develop a genuinely more sane political economy, inside of a genuinely more sane human ecology, in order that those could develop an industrial ecology, which was consistent with the survival of natural ecologies, appears to be politically impossible at the present time, precisely due to the degree that entities like the Federal Reserve Board is a King of Fraud, inside of a globalized system based on being able to continue to operate civilization through being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS.
There is an intense paradox developing at an exponential rate, due to the development of electronic frauds, backed by the threat of the the force from atomic bombs, which are running into the limits of diminishing returns from being able to continue to strip-mine the planet at an exponentially accelerating rate. The relative "sanity" of the Federal Reserve Board is not greater than the relative ability of systems based on getting away with enforcing frauds being able to continue to do that ...
The deeper problems with those systems based on enforcing frauds is that their flip sides are necessarily attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance. We are rushing towards the limits of the planet as fast as possible, while we generally deliberately ignore that as much as possible. There are clearly some tipping, turning points on that trajectory, which we will most probably run into in the most tragic ways ???
Had dinner last year with an individual high up in one of the world's top investment firms. The takeaway: dollar will collapse, sometime in the next 20 yrs or so. Market can continue to go higher (overall) for much longer than people think. At absolute minimum, $collapse is several years away, marked by deflation followed by inflation.
I think complexity theory would indicate it's impossible to predict when. What people do is see the number of fault lines, and they wind up making their warnings in the form of timetables (e.g. 2 years out, this fall, etc.)
Had dinner last year with an individual high up in one of the world's top investment firms. The takeaway: dollar will collapse, sometime in the next 20 yrs or so. Market can continue to go higher (overall) for much longer than people think. At absolute minimum, $collapse is several years away, marked by deflation followed by inflation.
I think complexity theory would indicate it's impossible to predict when. What people do is see the number of fault lines, and they wind up making their warnings in the form of timetables (e.g. 2 years out, this fall, etc.)