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Boston Fed Admits There Is No Exit, Suggests QE Become "Normal Monetary Policy"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Perhaps it was inevitable. After all, the term “QEfinity” entered the financial lexicon long ago and there were already quite a few commentators out there suggesting that it may now be too late to remove the punchbowl, meaning an “exit” will not only prove difficult, but may well be impossible. 

Take Makoto Utsumi, who oversaw foreign-exchange policy at the Japanese Ministry of Finance from 1989-1991, for example. Utsumi recently said a BoJ QE exit was out of the question “for the foreseeable future” and went on to note that “even the thought of an exit is a nightmare.” Meanwhile, it’s virtually impossible to say what effect Fed tightening will have in both the Treasury and corporate bond markets given the lack of liquidity in both and then there’s EM where carnage unfolded in 2013 after a certain bearded bureaucrat said the wrong thing about the direction of Fed policy. 

Given all of this, we’re not surprised to learn that in a new paper entitled “Let’s Talk About It: What Policy Tools Should The Fed ‘Normally’ Use?”, the Boston Fed is now suggesting that QE become a permanent tool at the disposal of the Fed. After all, “financial stability” depends on it…

During the onset of a very severe financial and economic crisis in 2008, the federal funds rate reached the zero lower bound (ZLB). With this primary monetary policy tool therefore rendered ineffective, in November 2008 the Federal Reserve started to use its balance sheet as an alternative policy tool when it began the large-scale asset purchases. Now attention is turning to how the Fed should transition back to a more conventional monetary policy stance. Largely missing from these discussions about the Fed's "exit strategy" is a consideration that perhaps it should retain, not discard, the balance sheet tools. 

Yes, oddly missing from the Fed’s exit strategy is the idea that there should be no exit. 

Of course the idea that what was previously “unconventional” policy should now become “conventional” is supported by Fed mission creep because now, the dual mandate has apparently become a “tri” mandate:

Since the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) has added maintaining financial stability to the Fed's existing dual mandate to achieve maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability, it might be beneficial to have several tools to achieve multiple policy objectives. An additional consideration is that some of these tools may be needed to stem future crises as a result of the DFA's new limitations on how the Fed can provide liquidity under such adverse circumstances.

The particularly amusing thing here is that if the Fed’s third mandate is promoting financial stability then they’re doing a rather poor job of it so far and asset purchases are the primary reason why. A lack of Treasury market liquidity contributed to last October’s Treasury flash crash and as we’ve pointed out on so many occasions that it now borders on the comical, nothing good can come from sucking every piece of high quality collateral out of the system. Meanwhile, keeping rates low has triggered a bonanza of corporate debt issuance just as the new regulatory regime has ensured that secondary corporate credit markets are just as illiquid as the Treasury market. 

*  *  *

So yes, please retain QE as a permanent policy tool (as we always knew you would). It’s done wonders for demand and financial stability thus far. 

 

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Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:05 | 6032697 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Boston Fed head has created a short path to a nail gun incident.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:07 | 6032702 flacon
flacon's picture

I think a market rally on Wednesday is inevitable. But does QE mean LOWER gold prices now that they have decided on hyperinflation?

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:16 | 6032730 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

We are so fucking lost.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:20 | 6032744 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

way beyond lost

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:24 | 6032759 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

"Lets Talk About It: Which Constitution empowers congress to coin money and provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the coin?"

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:30 | 6032781 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I suppose in theory you can put a fire out with gasoline.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:35 | 6032788 Keyser
Keyser's picture

So what happens to asset valuation when the base currency under which they are priced is inflated to infiniti?  Funny, most ZH members know the answer, too bad the Fed doesn't... 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:58 | 6033009 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They can't do permanent QE in U.S. because it's already starting to crush the very banks that the Fed fronts for. They need arbitrage and near zero or zero at lower bound kills all arbitrage opportunity given enough time.

Dick Headley is out tonight saying global equity markets are going down big time within weeks, not months.

BJ Research Report compiled shows real aggregate demand crashing at called pace than 2008-2010 monthly average.

On a related topic:

Industrial Production Hasn't Been This Bad Since Q2 2009

"The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows industrial production decreased -0.6% while January was revised downward to a -0.4% decline.  February showed a measly 0.1% increase, so overall the first quarter looks bleak  Annualized Q1 showed a -1.0% decline and such a contraction has not happened since Q2 2009.  The G.17 industrial production statistical release is also known as output for factories and mines."

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/industrial-production-hasnt-been...

And PMI indicated a near contractionary number as of April 1, 2015 (by official numbers), and I'd argue we went into recession in real terms magnanimous ago:

ISM Survey Shows Barely Breathing Manufacturing Sector - PMI at 51.5%
Submitted by Robert Oak on April 1, 2015 - 6:26pm

"The March ISM Manufacturing Survey shows manufacturing is barely breathing growth as a monthly -1.4 percentage point decline put PMI near the contraction edge.  PMI is now 51.5% and if the index falls below 50%...that's contraction.  The reason for the slide was supplier deliveries, which were more streamlined indicating less to ship and slower manufacturing hiring."

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/ism-survey-shows-barely-breathin...

China, Japan, Korea and the Asian Tigers are about to shit the bed, and their crash (already underway) is going to literally burn paper, unrealized wealth at an amazing clip once the money rotating from Chinese real property to even more hollow equities catches on:

Shanghai Average new home prices decline 6.2% W/W, according to Uwin
- Shanghai New Home Sales increased 31.7% W/W

27 Apr 2015 - 04:02 - Forex - Source: BBG

http://portal.ransquawk.com/headlines/shanghai-average-new-home-prices-d...

Thailand Auto Sales (Mar) Y/Y -11.7% (Prev. -10.8%)
- March car output declined by -1.72% on year to 178,271 units

Reaction details (04:01)

- No immediate reaction seen in USD/THB, trades 32.58 last.

27 Apr 2015 - 03:59 - Forex - Source: BBG

http://portal.ransquawk.com/headlines/thailand-auto-sales-mar-y-y-11-7-p...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 01:30 | 6033148 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Say what you want about Peter Schiff but...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:47 | 6033699 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Thousands of muppets will be sacrificed.  That should appease the money-God.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:28 | 6033026 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

So QE to infinity was the truth?  So I am sure Peter Schiff will tell us  again.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:59 | 6032981 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Technically, that is possible.  You cannot have fire without O2.  Enough gasoline would inhibit O2 so the fire would be put out.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 07:52 | 6033400 blindman
blindman's picture

chain smokers beware.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:51 | 6032964 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Ding!

Why, that would be the good old United States Constitution, OC, Article 1, Section 8.

Not that anyone is using it...

What do I win?

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:00 | 6032983 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

You win your very own nailgun.  Duck!!!

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:08 | 6033007 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

A trip to FEMA camp #13 for reeducation, same as me.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:48 | 6033700 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Camp 13, or District 13?

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 18:06 | 6035656 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

Lost is lost. 

 

This is not not LOST it is "I need to be escorted into care" INSANE.  Bring on the gentle rubber rooms.  Let someone, anyone address this meglomaniac delusion. 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:58 | 6032977 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Absolutely positively wrong.  We are found.  If you have been reading ZH for more than a few months you have to have known this moment was coming.  You have to have known to be ready for it.  You have to be in a position to benefit from it.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:50 | 6032821 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Wait, I thought the 7.5 year itch starts this week. Plus it's a Shemitah or smegma year or something like that.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:19 | 6032875 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Smegma year- that's the correct term.

Because a whole lot of Richard Craniums will be "cleaned out" and "washed up" this year.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:56 | 6033055 Keyser
Keyser's picture

My precious!!!!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 00:34 | 6033101 Ms No
Ms No's picture

+1 Holy shit that was funny.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:56 | 6032974 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Nah.  They are just gassing up the helos.  Bring it bitchez!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:50 | 6033548 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Let's hope so but I'm betting not.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:09 | 6032703 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

We taxpayers have been propping up the stock market for generations thanks to the inclusion of the MIC stocks and oil stocks which only exist because of military spending.  With Obamacare, it became official policy that taxpayer dollars get to support health insurance and medical related stocks ad infinitum.    It was only a matter of time before it became open and permanent institutional policy that taxpayer dollars go directly to prop up the futures market too.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:07 | 6032852 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Don't forget the 401k Scheme to get moar money into the market.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:52 | 6032968 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Is Obama's 'MyRA' scheme still treading water?

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:08 | 6032706 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Balance sheets and basic accounting are for "the little people" who are thrown in jail for counterfeiting & theft.

We're doing Gods work here! ;-)

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:09 | 6032709 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

"You can't taper a ponzi-scheme..." - Max Keiser...

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:39 | 6032799 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Max has his moments, for a schizoid... He lost me when he began sucking Russell Brand's cock and singing the praises of bitcoin, when in fact he is an investor in a bitcoin exchange...  

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:09 | 6032710 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

File under: NO SHIT

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:10 | 6032715 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

they will own it all eventually

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:11 | 6032717 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

By "it," they mean "us."

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:14 | 6032724 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it was all fun and games while they were just buying treasurys. eventually it will be junk bonds, penny stocks, derivatives gone bad, real estate swindles, the whole nine yards. maiden lane 1 & 2 was just the beginning.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:18 | 6032738 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Absolutely.  The BOJ is already do it.  How far behind are we before our Fed is doing exactly the same thing?

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:21 | 6032749 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

who said they're behind

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:02 | 6032990 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Damn you and your truthiness.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:33 | 6033031 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

They will be doing so much buying that Yellowstone will have to be sold to pay for all the buying.

National Parks "Our best Idea"

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:23 | 6032755 Karl-Hungus
Karl-Hungus's picture

@ buzzsaw dont forget student loan debt, too. Im sure that will be included once this bubble pops

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:14 | 6032726 flacon
flacon's picture

No, only your CORPORATION which is your ALL CAPS NAME. The "you" (flesh and bood) can never be bought. 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:04 | 6032993 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Correctamundo.  I cannot be bought.  However, if you are a hot blond/brunette/redhead I can be rented by the 5 minutes or so.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:02 | 6032987 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

In reply to Buzz as well, you get it!  We be pwned.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:13 | 6032722 pauhana
pauhana's picture

So many spinning plates! Party on!

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:14 | 6032728 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Admits Djokar = "Floyd Ruby" = "squeeky FROHM" = low-level iinformant = deuschebag*
*huh, don't know nuthin' *
*We all be phu cc ccccck. Dddtttdd"
Shut yo mouth
Jus talkin' bout Shaft!!!!

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:16 | 6032731 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

but what happens when they shoot the last bear (probably me), and everybody is all in?

 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:17 | 6032733 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Does this mean they will increase their leverage to 683,000x....?

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:18 | 6032740 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

Eventually this wil end badly, whether the FED puts an end to QE or not.

At some point the financial system will go into meltdown, simlpy due to the laws of physics. What goes up, must come down

Personally, they have just given me the confidence to stay bullish on stocks, for the time being.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:40 | 6032935 adr
adr's picture

It's already ended badly.

How are your family members under 45 doing?

Some of them might be making a good amount of money, but working 80hrs a week isn't living. The kids who think working at Google is awesome won't feel the same way when they are burned out at 35 with no real life.

There is nothing going on in the USA that can be considered a positive. Even the stock market going up is a negative because it means life just keeps getting more expensive.

Am I supposed to be happy that health insurance for a family now costs more than the mortgage on a $250k house? 

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 01:23 | 6033142 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Good points, adr.

First, we are in the very real Zero Interest Rate Trap that has been theorized and written about by many, usually Austrian or free market types. Most governments are borrowing money at effective zero interest rates and can neither generate self sustaining economies or pay down debt. The good ole USA is still piling on debt with no end in sight. Those writers generally did not theorize about QE balance sheets and a quadrillion dollars of credit default swaps, either.

Second, and more to your point, Obamacare is a huge barely visible but large drain on the economy. What just happened in plain sight is that everyone had their insurance rates double while downgrading their coverage to merely catastrophic. You are paying double for half as much. There is no actual extra productivity in medicine, no extra services and no extra coverage. However, the price doubled. The reason is that you are buying someone "poor" free first dollar insurance while downgrading your coverage. The early results show that fewer people are going for healthcare, already. So, there is actually less service being delivered. The reason is quite simple. Everyone under Obamacare (and the numbers will grow) pays the first $5k to $12k in costs before anything over an annual physical gets covered. That is essentiall self insurance. If you have to pay $12k of actual costs while paying another $12k for the catastrophic parts you are effectively self insuring. You actually have no insurance except in the extremes. Welcome to Redistribution 101.

Unless I miss my guess, the only happy people are the insurance companies who I predict are raking in record money. They just raised their premiums through the rough for a theoretical risk that not only did not materialize but actual expenditures are probably diving. Watch the reporst and CEO pay because they have to hide that money. The law requires 80% expenditures.

Obamacare is economically evil because it reaches everyone at every economic level, most importantly the millions in the productive class who cannot take much more. You will have the thrill of seeing the Medicaid patient come in and do their two dollar copay for the doctor or the medicince while you get a bill for $150 or more that you cannot afford. The Medicaid patient will have paid exactly zero for their care while you are paying $500 or more a month for the privelage of paying out of pocket on top of your premium. It's a huge hit and it is mandatory and prosecuteable.

Companies will respond will lower benefits, part time and further outsourcing to another country.

Your kids will be in your basement for a very very long time if they are dumb enough to work.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 06:51 | 6033342 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

The other diabolical part of Obamacare is what it has done to employment.  Tens of millions who once had a full time job, now have several part time jobs so no one employs them for more than 30 hours and has to provide employer funded healthcare for them.

Having several part time jobs instead of one full time job means more personal overhead for travel to work, time spent in travelling and more fragmentation of your time because the part time jobs do not mesh neatly in filling up someone's work day.

While the employer gets an employee without having to pay for health insurance, since employees are now not spending all their work time on that employer's job, their experience level and commitment are, on average, less, so they are less effective at the work than had they been full time employees.

And of course there is all the time and frustration individuals have to go through completing forms, as well as the inevitable tax problems for many when they discover they have to refund some of the Obamacare subsidy which they don't have available in liquid funds.

Those costs don't go away.  They are enormous structural inefficiencies Obamacare has inflicted on the American populace.  Good example of what you get when you elect someone who promises "hope and change" but hasn't any personal experience of wealth creation or even of working for a living outside of an affirmative action balloon.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:55 | 6033719 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Preezycare is making the AMT calculation look like child's play.  Amidst our walk into shadow there remain bright spots for those who can think creatively.  Look for a market need where your microbusiness can become 1 of your 3 part-time jobs.  Not every business is capital intensive or requires a rocket-science PhD.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:06 | 6032998 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"Eventually this wil end badly"

For whom dear sir, for whom?  They are buying up the entire world.  You are fucked.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 01:36 | 6033162 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

I'm happy to be f....d, and well off. It is not a crime to try and make a better life for yourself by participating in a system called capitalism, even though it is seriously flawed. 

You sound a little bitter. Did you miss the six year rally?

 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:22 | 6032754 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Permanent QE is to financial stability as unending sin is to spiritual enlightenment.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:30 | 6032779 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's too late for similes and I've already got two doubles in me.

I think I agree with you.  If you said what I think you said.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:07 | 6033003 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

You do.  He did.  It is.  And I forget the rest beacuae I have more in me tha n you.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:28 | 6032772 CHC
CHC's picture

OK - it's official.  The inmates have now taken over the asylum. 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:28 | 6032773 Salah
Salah's picture

So how does it end? IMHO, an external event they cannot control...like what started it, i.e. Putin suddenly invading Georgia, August 2008, and sending an "orderly" liquidation of securitized "assets" into a tidal wave.....same shit will end it.  That geo-political cosmic monkeywrench.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:36 | 6032924 weburke
weburke's picture

an external event they CAN control.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:29 | 6032775 Usura
Usura's picture

Eventually all countires can adopt  the shekel as their national currency

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:09 | 6033011 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

I hereby declare my domain the state of me.  I do not accept the shekel  If you want something pay in gold, silver, or blood.

For the record I prefer the fried blood off of pork chops.  That stuff is yummy.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:32 | 6032784 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Everyone's on the 'digital asset' side of the boat. What could possibly go wrong?

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:37 | 6032791 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Moar asshats.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:40 | 6032793 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

How will Quantitative Easing survive if we start using cash for 80% of purchasing goods and services? Your fucking toast. Rethink the long term scope. We don't need you, rather you need us. 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:39 | 6032796 DOGGONE
Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:48 | 6032816 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Shiller received a No Bell prize. You remind me of myself discovering fraud. Keep at it. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-yale-prank-2014-2

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:27 | 6032894 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

Thank you.

It is especially inhumane to deceive youth.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:39 | 6032798 max2205
max2205's picture

 

 

 

                0 1 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:45 | 6032808 booboo
booboo's picture

So that homeless troll at the bottom of the off ramp with the "Will Work for Debt" was Yellen. Desperate people do desperate things.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:52 | 6032809 nakki
nakki's picture

These brilliant morons understand that QE forever basically tells everyone that you never ever have to repay your debt. That in itself makes fiat worth less and worthless. Now that's a dual mandate.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:06 | 6032847 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just like the US dollar states. IN GOD WE TRUST. 

We have watched the Federal Reserve manipulate the digital currency. No thank you. You have fucked up trust.

If you mandate this, a bullet will go through the Federal Reserve window. Then you'll understand the the situation first hand. It will not be me pulling the trigger. Giving you advance warning. 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:08 | 6033006 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

Keep in mind.  The Fed is giving back to the Treasury all the Interest that the Treasury pays to the Fed for all the Treasury securities that the Fed purchased.  That is one reason why the Fiscal Budget deficits have decreased.

 

Most folks don't know that or haven't thought it through.  Think it through.

 

The Fed will raise the FF rates and simultaneously announce QE 4 to assist in meeting its third mandate.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:51 | 6032823 Elliptico
Elliptico's picture

It's Saddam Hussein's fault.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 21:55 | 6032834 yogibear
yogibear's picture

QE by the Fed until a currency crisis. Then IMF SDRs is their backup.

The Federal Reserve's long-term plan to impoverish the small people.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:37 | 6032929 surf0766
surf0766's picture

The IMF's Oct 20 acouncement is meaningless. The rest of the world gives not a shite about the U.S. dollar anymore

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:09 | 6032842 Jonesy
Jonesy's picture

Big fucking deal, more printing of fiat has always been 'normal' policy for the Jews that own the presses.  Dumb Goy will never understand because he's convinced it's over his head, with terms like quantitative easing and other BS that simply mean they print as much as they want while goyim do real work for increasingly worthless receipts.

Keep killing people in foreign lands to defend your 'freedoms' dickweed, just don't look over here.

 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:45 | 6032953 adr
adr's picture

No, it's because like White Guilt the Jews have brainwashed the mass populace through decades of media that the poor Jews were thrown in ovens just because their noses were big.

The Goy have morals which is our biggest weakness they exploit.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 01:31 | 6033154 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

There are plenty of white guys with names like Smith, Bush, Clinton, and Morgan. There's no way that Jews can manipulate any system against the wishes of that population. They are all in on this garbage unless you believe Jews have secret mind control techniques that you somehow escaped.

It is a keynesian-statist-collectivist-elistist-central planner ideology that drives all this stuff. It's all white guys, some Jews and all central planners. It is no more of a conspiracy than the NBA is a black conspiracy or convenience stores are an East Indian conspiracy.

The proper target is government power and that disempowers anyone you love to hate.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:33 | 6032871 teutonicate
teutonicate's picture

One thing that doesn't get a lot of attention, at least in the MSM, is the fact that the Fed is rolling over the interest on the federal and other debt obligations that comprise its balance sheet into additional debt.  Given the current size of the fed's balance sheet, a substantial de-facto form of ongoing "unannounced QE" is already in place.

The "miracle of compound interest" is already heavily entrenched to the determinant of the US taxpayer and in the end game to the detriment of holders of US debt obligations, as the insolvency hole of the US government is dug deeper and deeper.  In essence the Fed has addicted the US economy, and possibly the world's economy, to money creation.

IMO, the only exit scenarios are:

1) The eventual realization that the US$ must be inflated away at a rapid pace to lower the real value of the US debt outstanding to a manageable figure that can be serviced by the US taxpayer in real terms. Or

2) The US must default on its debt, resulting in a rapid fleeing from the US$, which would result in an even more rapid devaluation of the US$ than scenario 1)

To refute this proposition, US$ bulls would need to identify any example in history where such profligate spending and money creation on the part of a government was resolved without massive devaluation of its currency.  I don't think they can identify such an example.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 01:35 | 6033160 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Excellent points.

I will add that until recently the Treasury was rolling over longer term higher interest rate debt into shorter term virtual zero rate debt. The reason is obvious. It is to get as close to zero as possible and sort of neutralize the compounding monster. The problem is that spending has not slowed a bit and you can go bankrupt even at zero interest. Also, if rates begin to rise and rise substantially the short term debt will quickly roll into much higher rates than if it had all been done in 30year notes. That will put the government in a crisis very quickly.

Most analyses I have seen show a "game over" default scenario with just a two percent rise in long term rates.

The problem has always been spending but we have one party and half of the other who deny that.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 05:42 | 6033290 Lurk Skywatcher
Lurk Skywatcher's picture

You don't get it.

CERN's large hadron collider fired up for the first time Sept 10th 2008.

We were blasted into the bizzaro dimension of the multiverse - bad news is good, war is peace, slavery is freedom.

There ain't gonna be no damn crash, no hyperinflation, and history doesn't matter.

This time its different.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:25 | 6032872 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Well when you been doing it for 10 fucking years, thats pretty much as normal as it gets you faking twits.

 

"o don't worry about the fraud, crimminal cartels and money counterfeiting going on by a private bank, thats normal policy".

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/61650416.jpg

 

Pretty much sums it up.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:26 | 6032897 Gab Timov
Gab Timov's picture

No, this time, they need to give a few rounds of QE to rest of society, instead of funneling it directly to the big banko-corporations. This can take the form of debt-forgiveness, and/or monthly consumer allowance. Reduce rents too, while we're at it. That will free up additional money for consumers to spend on knick-knacks. The elite have gotten too good at sucking money from the host organism. 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:26 | 6032902 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

iWatch sales will bail us out of this derivative trap. 

/LOL

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:35 | 6032923 surf0766
surf0766's picture

What happens in the U.S. has no impact anymore on the lost of reserver status. We are beyond that point. The path is already set.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:49 | 6032961 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

Let us not forget those with attempt at even an actuary to give me me shit cause ZH been wrong since 2008 because what can't admit to the stalking
before that date

Really even if u did have an actuary I would wonder what ur gig was

Whats ther issue but yea u suck thats why im here
cause they so great to stalk the place out to meet them!

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:02 | 6032978 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

Really I don't take to those who pretend to be my mommy if I be here or mommy in law who hates their son who look like their daddy who isn't anti man enough to be one my boyfriends mother.......
Fuck u and ur issue with me being here at ZH

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:50 | 6032963 adr
adr's picture

Well I am sure the real people who built America and the rest of the developed world will save us.

I saw them trying to rebuild Baltimore last night. Looked like a funny way to do it, but we elected one of them to change the country. I'm sure they know what they are doing. I even heard from one of them that Jesus, Einstein, and Thomas Jefferson were actually like them. Those guys just had a skin condition that made them look different.

See we are saved.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 00:02 | 6033064 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The effort just needs to be focused.  

Focused on the Banksters....

All is missing is a lens.  Problem is most of that class has no one to focus them.  The parasites like Jessie and the like care nothing about their people.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:56 | 6032971 JR
JR's picture

This is a frank admission that the central bank is now the market, that there is no market, that there is just the Fed.

They will be overthrown with this kind of position: that it is normal to steal money every day, and that it is normal to continue to transfer wealth from citizens to friends of the banks, that it is normal to have a central bank substitute itself for the market and control the government.

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 22:56 | 6032975 yogibear
yogibear's picture

We all knew their exit-talk was pure BS.

Can't raise rates.

Just on/off QE.

QE4, which will be larger than $85 billion/month, will keep pushing stocks higher.

Think of Zimbabwe economics.

 

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:04 | 6032992 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

One time I will have to tell u about my parents first marriages mama told me about...

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:09 | 6033010 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

Not to mention mamas gpa
We cool w queers as well as all kinds of shit

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:54 | 6033050 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

NY no kill rat policy relocation policy meets whyliee coyote BUSTED.....we all safe NOW!

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:54 | 6033051 Weaponized Innocense
Weaponized Innocense's picture

NY no kill rat policy relocation policy meets whyliee coyote BUSTED.....we all safe NOW!

Sun, 04/26/2015 - 23:56 | 6033054 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Check out my logo...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 00:02 | 6033066 They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

In this enviroment where they've convinced everyone that it is deflationary - via buybacks, selling air in potato chip bags, etc - these baboons will be lucky if hYPER INFLATION takes place first before a collapse. 

Ofcourse that would require salaries to move from 1978 standards to 2015 - 

But it wouldn't surprise me if these sociopaths just pull the plug before a period of hyper inflation take plaae....

These poor 20 somethings have no idea what is coming - those with jobs will live in Japanese like quarters - 400 sq ft flats with minimal items. A flat screen tv on the wall, laptop, latest Iphone, high efficient showers ith timers, limited flush toilets, a few clothes in their diminitive closets - no need to own a car and have insurance - when they can drive luxurious and spacious Zipcars....

The clean and efficient serf......

Be happy in your serfdom

 

 

 

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 00:25 | 6033093 onmail
onmail's picture

Print money

Create money out of nowhere

buy everything from everyone

give them the print, the printed paper

Your soul for a print ,

Th dollar is a contract to sell your soul

to the devil, mammon

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 00:45 | 6033117 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

You guys should be happy.   Here is the Boston Fed saying that, in order to maintain the status and wealth of the powers-that-be, the Fed will do its part by crushing the nation's wealth.    Clear as a bell.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 01:24 | 6033143 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Say what you want about Peter Schiff, but...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 02:21 | 6033187 malek
malek's picture

 suggesting that QE become a permanent tool

paging Captain Obvious!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 02:26 | 6033191 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Yes there is a fix - it's called redirecting some, or all, FED money creation toward government work projects (ex: rebuilding bridges and highways) distributing income to working and middle-class Americans, the heart of consumerism that keeps our Capitalist wheel moving. All previous QE's undoubtedly proves giving free money to 1% doesn't work.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 02:53 | 6033203 JamesH
JamesH's picture

Keynesians are supposed to reduce the money supply (reverse QE) in the good times so they are saying there will be no good times.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 06:12 | 6033308 sTls7
sTls7's picture

Why would big money even care if the 99% are making any money and only live from pay check to pay check. This is all about big money and power.  They'll do whatever they need to do to control the system. What you or I think, want or need does not matter. It's all about 'follow the money trail'.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 06:55 | 6033345 Dr.Engineer
Dr.Engineer's picture

Incoming black swan.  That one is the scout for the flock.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:30 | 6033473 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

QE is the black swan.

It always has been.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 06:56 | 6033347 FSFT
FSFT's picture

JADE HELM 15 folks

 

Smoke em if you got em

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:29 | 6033464 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

A new economy is being created right before your eyes.

An economy that doesn't need 99% of you.

Don't you understand?

This is depopulation without firing squads and camps.

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:32 | 6033483 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

QE has always been a feudal policy.

Perm QE means feudalism.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:49 | 6033541 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Who didn't know this was the plan? Raise your hands...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 22:12 | 6045349 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

First of all, the reason we are in low to negative interest rates is because, the asset values are leveraged 80+ to 1. Each one of the leverages would need to gain interest. Also debt servicing. It's all about the asset values and leverage ratio. If the price of that leveraged asset deflates, the leverage ratio increases. It's all about inflation because, it affects the reserve ratio.

There are two kinds of inflation. Number one, Inflation from production/job wherein, the person/human with a job saves/invests a dollar and then the bank intern creates Nine new dollars, out of thin air, to loan to the next guy. (Reserve lending). This inflation is good because, it expands the economy and creates opportunity as everyone has access to it.

Then there is electronic printing/QE/POMO/Leverage. This type of inflation requires no production and can be whipped up on a computer keyboard and sent to anywhere on earth, within milliseconds to save the system that created it. This form of inflation is bad. It competes for human jobs and also is able to marionette the economy by, printing up those digits electronically and buying/selling futures and options or anything, controlling prices, intern controlling wages. A person with a job creates good inflation expanding and supporting the economy, at a sustained growth rate. The moment a person goes from being that good inflation creator, saving and investing for his future with that job, into an inflation eater/consumer/eliminator with no job. Consuming those electronic digits, controlling prices. After all, who can afford to raise prices or wages if, 72% of all American families and 52% of all Americans are receiving these electronic dollars (public assistance) to control inflation. They had to extract more taxes because of all the printing, too control inflation. Couldn't do that ? They came up with a great idea to extract more dollars from the public, controlling those prices and wages because, no one can afford to drive them up, right ? Here's the idea. Tell everyone that 'affordable' healthcare will become law and then raise rates/deductables 75%. I still say, that was one of the most brilliant moves, in history to control inflation domestically, while we try and open the avenues to export that inflation once again. See below.

Lets prove out that paragraph above. Take a look at the shale/fracking/sands increases in production, jobs and investment. 77% of every job created since 2010 has been in the oil sector. (shale/fracking/sands). But, let's take that one step further. When you are 94% self sustaining country from an energy point of view (thats Us) what happens ? The avenues to control inflation are shut. What are these avenues ? It's called the exportation of domestic inflation by, exchanging our good inflation dollars collected at the gas station pump and shipping them overseas in exchange for their foreign oil. Grants, gifts and "projects" also fit into the description of the 'exportation of domestic inflation'. Exporting this 'domestic inflation' controls prices and wages here at home. If this inflation is not exported, prices and wages will creep up. Crash oil prices for a while, turn all the inflation creators with a job into an inflation eater/consumer/eliminator without a job to control the rate and exposure of inflation. Problem is that everyone is printing in overdrive and everyone (all currencies/nations/fiat systems that print) needs to export that domestically created inflation, to control the value of that currency at home and globally if, your are reserve and petrodollar system, that doesn't need human production to run or suppot an economy. It's all about keeping the asset values high

 

That's the layer above, what you described was the layer below.

The electronic creation of currencies are in direct conflict, with human jobs and their creation as described above.

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