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Is This A Blow-Off Top? Four Ways To Tell

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Those who lived through the last two speculative blow-off tops know the impossibility of predicting the final top.

How can we tell if stocks are in the final blow-off stage of a bubble? There are four basic give-aways:

1. Parabolic rises in stocks and speculative debt.

2. The mainstream financial media claims the clearly visible bubbles are justified by fundamentals.

3. Conventional financial authorities insist this is not a blow-off top.

4. The expressions of regret of those who sat out the latest rally become ubiquitous.

In the past few days, I have read two laughably baseless justifications of the bubble in Chinese stocks by conventional financial analysts:

A) China is a "black box," i.e. unfathomable, so go with what we know, which is that China is a nation of entrepreneurs: this is the green light to buy the bubble here if you want to reap easy profits.

B) The stock market bubble in China is positive evidence of a healthy re-adjustment of China's financial system.

That neither thesis has the slightest foundation in reality doesn't matter, as the real agenda of the analysts is to justify their own attempts to join the crowd reaping vast profits in the bubble.

This denial that a speculative blow-off is clearly occurring is a key indicator that a blow-off top is in its final stages.

Consider the Shanghai stock index (SSEC). Is it truly normal for the stock markets of nations with economies approaching stall-speed to double in less than a year?

Amazon is a large, well-run corporation, but its core businesses are low-margin (as for the cloud business--everybody and their brother is ramping up their cloud biz). Is it truly normal for a low-margin company's stock to rise 50+% in four months?

Margin debt reflects the "animal spirits" of speculation and confidence. When borrowed money is used to buy more stocks, it makes the resulting rise vulnerable to a decline that forces recent buyers to liquidate their positions to cover their margin calls.

Margin debt has reached new highs; what happened when margin debt hit these levels in prior cycles?

The soaring confidence in future advances that define blow-off tops is visible in declining measures of volatility such as the VIX and VXX. (Recall that volatility and stocks are on a see-saw; should the VXX reverse and move higher, stocks would plummet.)

One last method to identify blow-off tops is to look for repeating patterns that marked previous blow-off tops.

Those who lived through the last two speculative blow-off tops know the impossibility of predicting the final top. Those who bet the top is in (i.e. make short bets that will gain if the market reverses and drops) are often forced to cover when the market advances further, and this panic buying pushes the market even higher.

Only when the ranks of bears willing to bet against the market thin will the short-covering boost dissipate. At that point of bearish exhaustion, the market will roll over when the greater fools (last buyers of the blow-off top) run out of margin buying power.

 

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Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:48 | 6033539 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  Technical analysis in the absence of price discovery, good luck with that.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:50 | 6033549 FMOTL
FMOTL's picture

you dirty bull market DENIER !

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:56 | 6033566 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

FWIW:  Another recent call for a blow off top soon:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZN6aAcrFfA

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:01 | 6033582 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

So everybody and their cousins are expecting a market crash.  They will be getting short.  Hmmm... getting short in a market that is obviously rigged to go up via CB's and Algo's.  Can you say "Massive Short Squeeze"?  Someday it will end and end very badly.  But I don't think we are there.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:17 | 6033598 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah but then everybody is expecting a short squeeze so it can't happen now either.

So the market crashes any day now.

But who knows?

ONE THING WE CAN BE SURE OF IS WHEN THE """MARKET"" DOES START FALLING

IT'S GONNA KEEP FALLING FOR A LONG TIME!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:20 | 6033646 pods
pods's picture

Chinese knitting women traders-------check!

Banana stand trader--------------------check!

4 trucks that make grilled cheeses for $100 million valuation------check.

Anything else needed?

pods

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:27 | 6033658 max2205
max2205's picture

Gee Charles you forgot that the Fed will buy every dip for the next 5 years.

 

Again!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:33 | 6033669 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Charles Hugh-Smith, of Two Minds = really just a paranoid schizophrenic with multiple personality disorder who goes into closet to change his mind.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:56 | 6033716 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Yep, do not tell him... yet.

 

 

Isn't that a CNBC tactic ?

 

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:41 | 6033875 rccalhoun
rccalhoun's picture

all governments and central banks are all in --- there is no exit strategy, no plan B....just play this tune until war comes

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:24 | 6034756 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

There are are only three things that will end this manipulated Bull market:  1. The Fe decides things are heating up and decides to pull back an slow it down, 2.  Te economy gets worse and the Fed prints too much and we get runaway inflation, 3. This shit keeps going like Japan for 50 more years or until the peasants rise up....I think the last one is probably what's foing to happen, but its years away.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 15:18 | 6034899 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Seems pretty well said...except global credit/debt growth is slowing and only one soon only two sources...government debt and corporate bond sales at ever NIRP'ier rates...it's not a mindset or investors that matter any longer.  The digital HFT markets are now so clearly managed that any "market event" would likewise be a managed affair.

asset reovery vs. no economic recovery...

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/04/stocks-or-economydoes-either-represent.html

and global credit / debt growth slowing and governments substituting debt for missing investments...China is the last great bubble and the last (ironically) to switch from "private sector" to government debt creation (yeah, I get it that it's not exactly "private" markets as Chinese banks are made to lend).

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/03/are-seeds-of-depression-sprouting.html

lastly why population growth nor immigration will save the US or other advanced economies

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/02/fundamentally-flawed-chapter-4.html

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:45 | 6033683 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

pods:

 

A stock trading at $389 (AMZN) reports a loss of 23 cents/share and promptly rallies 16%-------check!

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:47 | 6033698 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly.  No price discovery, period. This is not a top, it just is.  Might be a plateau if anything.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:15 | 6033787 pods
pods's picture

I'd accept this was a top in the normal sense if one question could be answered.

If they pull the FRNs out of the stock market, where the hell will they put them all?

pods

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:03 | 6033927 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Well, this morning it looks like the FRN's are flowing into Gold & Silver...

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:47 | 6034838 Model T
Model T's picture

Traditionally, they go into the US Treasury Bonds, which is many times larger than the Stawk Market; where the money has been going now for months; as many managed selling days have occured as the properly educated are exiting the full blown bubble that is the stock market. A small side stream flows into the Metals. These prices on the NYSE will only be fond memories by Thanksgiving.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:57 | 6034880 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The people in the know take profits and put it into their portfolios, a small number of lucky people outside do the same and for everybody else, *POOF* it's gone!

 

Alternatively, it could simply be *POOF* it's gone. 

 

Paper games are fun!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:25 | 6034000 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I can't say one way or another whether we're in a top, but at the end of the day there seems to be just too much disbelief and negativity in the market for this to be a manic blow off.

I was only a young lad in '87, so I cannot speak firsthand about the sentiment and commentary back then.

But in '00 / '01 and again in '07 / H1 '08 I did not encounter such widespread disbelief and pessimism among the (alleged) smart money. 

If we are in a blow off, then it would be unlike the prior two.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:46 | 6034056 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"Might be a plateau if anything."

A permanent high plateau?

Are you Irving Fisher re-incarnated?

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:57 | 6034098 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

it took a very long time, several generations in fact, for the Soviet Union to collapse.  "Officially" everything was awesome for a long time there as well.

 

Again, does price discovery matter or not? simple question, one would think.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:25 | 6034761 walküre
walküre's picture

There's always price discovery. When you go to the store and see how prices have gone up, you just made a price discovery!

Question then is, are you still buying it or buying the same amount of it?

Price manipulation never works long term. You, me and everyone else are the blood & flesh market participants who make the choice to either participate or not.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:49 | 6034852 Model T
Model T's picture

Of course; there is always price discovery; you'll have to pardon the wanna-be wise; who didn't bother to study anything before promoting themselves.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 15:20 | 6034980 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I guess it's safe to put you in the "debt does not matter" camp.

 

Hey, everything is awesome, for my tribe and I.  Now about that 99%...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 15:17 | 6034973 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sure, but the markets most people are participating in are not being monitored.  Exactly my point.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:48 | 6034843 Model T
Model T's picture

No; it is not a plateau; whicih of course, is impossible.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 16:07 | 6035150 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

It's not a top.  It's more of a whirlpool swirling in a toilet.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 01:00 | 6036853 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

With a big floating turd that wont go down.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:13 | 6033774 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

How long can a market last without real price discovery? 

I am really looking foward to the next liquidity squeeze.  

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:23 | 6033987 Steal Your Face
Steal Your Face's picture

I ordered a case for my iPhone and a Buddy Christ statue. Maybe that explains it.

Well, I don't care if it rains or freezes,
Long as I have my plastic Jesus
Riding on the dashboard of my car

Through all trials and tribulations,
We will travel every nation,
With my plastic Jesus I'll go far.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:02 | 6034396 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Nice one pods!

DavidC

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:19 | 6033978 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Everything indicator in the world economy has been suppressed and/or manipulated, so I expect the black swan will be very obvious but completely invisible until it lands and then everyone will be running in circle about how big a 'surprise' it is.....

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:43 | 6034049 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

The eventual end will not be some failed GREXIT negotiations, nor will it come from a PBOC Press Confrence.  The catalyist for the end will occur, for most, seemingly randomly some Friday evening ECT.  Everything will be just fine, and then people will start complaining that Amazon and PayPal aren't working.  

Thereafter, online banking features such as wire transfers and extra-bank transfers will get turned off, and then thereafter panic will set in with the large money.  

I think it'll start off like Cyprus, and end like Ukraine.  

God help us all.  

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:57 | 6034097 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Yep and one of the reasons I have a stash of paper money. Because one of the first things will be everybody's plastic will quit working and cash will buy you useful things just before it all implodes....

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 16:45 | 6035342 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

You'd just make sure you go 'shopping' with a couple of buddies for protection.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:56 | 6033567 CH1
CH1's picture

It all depends on how much currency the Fed throws into the market.

Fundamentals? Those lost validity a long way back.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:00 | 6033578 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bingo, yes, just like the banks, fundmentals are now useless.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:23 | 6033820 Salah
Salah's picture

All based on some geo-political-military black swan...same as what ended the last one.  Putin suddenly invaded Georgia in mid-August 2008 when an "orderly" liquidation of asset-back "securities" was underway....panic ensued and there was a giant bolt to the exit doors.  It'll be the same thing again. 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:30 | 6033842 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

It's not stocks that are in a bubble, it's the Dollar. The value of Stocks will go where the Dollar goes.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:06 | 6033934 auntiesocial
auntiesocial's picture

any charts showing what would / could have happened if there was no QE... at all... or too speculative?

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 12:06 | 6034134 dcohen
dcohen's picture

That title was bound to be sexually abused

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 01:06 | 6036860 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Your avitar caused me to completely forget what the parent article was all about.  Thankyou.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:52 | 6033553 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Take a step back from there even LOP, how about Price discovery in a totoally manufactured reality.

My neighbour is a TA guy, makes 30-40% a year, like clockwork. Says that TA "knows"....hmmmm

 

Anyways, this is how I blow off a top...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcuIThFpV6E

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:59 | 6033574 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, personally, my reality is great.  Some interesting harmonics there.   Electromagnetic radiation (which is everywhere and everthing) and sound have one thing in common, they both behave as waves and can be easily described using math.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:02 | 6033590 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I "hear" you...and I play for those harmonics...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:11 | 6033765 SolarSystem1932
SolarSystem1932's picture

ORI,

What was the bowed instrument?

And now that I'm tired of the fiddle and cello, what stringed fretless instrument should I try next?

Seriously.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:00 | 6033922 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey Solar, the bow was the one locals use, it's made brom bamboo twine and bamboo with a little local gum rubbed on. And the rest is a regular Fender :-)

And may I suggest guitar, fiddlers make great flat-pickers, Bluegrass players, if that is your thing. Fretted though.

There is a beautiful Indian Fretless instrument called the Sarod, check it out.

 

http://www.sarod.com/

Good stuff. Good to know that there are quite a few musicians here on the hedge.

 

We should do a global collaboration and release it and send the money to Nepal.

Who is game? I'll mix it here...

I'm in! 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:42 | 6034046 Joe Sichs Pach
Joe Sichs Pach's picture

Very nice ORI. What were you processing that signal through?
I too,like to bow an acoustic guitar on occasion. Sonically haunting.

Solar, how about a Tanpura? Drone instruments FTW

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 12:54 | 6034355 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks Joe.

That sound is a long delay, a little phaser, a little reverb in studio and the amazing acoustics of this 20 foot high stone dome I recorded in. :-)

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 03:48 | 6036983 Rapelomacy
Rapelomacy's picture

Ori, have you ever bowed a Santur? It is one of the most eerie and beautiful tonal sounds I have ever heard, especially at the lower register and after processing. You should be so lucky to have such high ceilings. People do not understand that sound is a vertical anomally, not horizontal, and with limited vertical space nodes begin to form (parallel surfaces lead to room nodes), whereas vertical space allows reinforcement. Anyway, I'm in!

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 04:56 | 6037043 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey Rmacy, no I have not, that sounds totally trippy. That instrument itself is something else. And that is a great insight on sound and what makes reverb and what makes echo!

If you look out for the next few in this series of sequences, the dome is shown in many of them, it is really acoustic magic.

Will look for your mail.....

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:22 | 6033805 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

"My neighbour is a TA guy, makes 30-40% a year, like clockwork. Says that TA "knows"....hmmmm"

 

ORI: As long as a TA understands that the fed's got your back the last 6 years could easily make a TA a millionaire. 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:06 | 6033929 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Too true Snoopy, Not that TA people are biased, heaven forbid!

The chart is their god and they it's acolytes...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:21 | 6033649 SilverMoneyBags
SilverMoneyBags's picture

Don't need luck. Technical analysis is the art of tracking human behavior in conjunction with the flow of capital. (Read: You don't need price discovery.) Tops of bubbles are the EASIEST thing to spot in technical analysis.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:22 | 6033811 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

As someone wiser than me already pointed out - TA is useless in a manipulated market.  But if you understand that it's manipulated then go gang busters using TA in bull mode.

 

Oh, in case I'm wrong then please share your knowledge - after all I am open to learning all the time.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:19 | 6034741 Zero guest
Zero guest's picture

Is the 200 day moving average rising or falling?

 

 

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 16:47 | 6040074 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

LOL - if that's all you got then you will need lot's of luck.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:55 | 6034656 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Then make some calls "smart" guy.  Talk is cheap.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:54 | 6033912 JRobby
JRobby's picture

MOAR QE!!!!!!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:26 | 6034512 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

My favorite blowoff top was US Surgical back in the 90's ,, even after JNJ announced and put into effect their plan to destroy USS's margins with lookalike devices at 25% of the price people still bid up USS for 3 quarters ... in the last month it was still gaining ever larger percentages each day on higher and higher volume... never took a breather with a few down days.. UNTIL one day it just broke down huge and nobody could get out... 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 15:00 | 6034894 reTARD
reTARD's picture

The only way to tell is to kidnap a Talmud-carrying, Zionist banker, err currency counterfeiter, and to pump it full of Thimerosal vacs. ;-)

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 05:48 | 6037103 raywolf
raywolf's picture

the music keeps on playing like one of those old school blues bands that does another 8 bars just as the song is ending..... the short stops above the last highs are just such easy meat for the big guns..... but once the signal is in... (which it is not yet).... it will run hard.... watch for full moon......

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:49 | 6033542 Longduckydong
Longduckydong's picture

Grasping for straws

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:51 | 6033550 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This is economic fraud, not a bubble!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:54 | 6033559 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

In the end both do cause toil and trouble though, so there is that...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:52 | 6033552 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

party popper 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:54 | 6033561 JoeTurner
JoeTurner's picture

It feels eerily like early 2000 all over again...it's all the same stupid s#$%, 17 year old hedge fund managers, bananna cart day-traders and everyone in NYC working for a tech startup with offices that look straight out of Wired c.1999

20-somethings who keep telling those of us who've lived through two major bubbles in 15 years that "it's different this time"..."profits don't matter, only forward bookings...etc"

Sometimes I wish I hadn't stopped drinking !

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:04 | 6033594 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Early 2000 was different as there was a lot more "Joe six-pack" trading stories and even commercials then.

This peak is a lot moar about the Fed saving the economy while Joe six-pack is still out of work.

This peak feels like it's happening in a complete vacuum.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:07 | 6033753 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yellen Capital LLC.

All anyone needs to know.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:28 | 6033836 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

it's not an LLC, it's a ZLC......a ZERO liability company.  

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:51 | 6033709 forwardho
forwardho's picture

"Sometimes I wish I hadn't stopped drinking !"

And then I remember my bottom.

;)

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:55 | 6033563 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

The stock market is like social media, it will be looked at as a technological "oops" in the eyes of the future historian.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:18 | 6033800 pods
pods's picture

"social media" will, in the future, be interchangeable with "tulips."

pods

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:55 | 6033564 JPMorgan
JPMorgan's picture

Yup boom and bust bitches.

But this time it's different, please stay...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:56 | 6033565 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Please - this bubble can get much bigger, as explained by spongebob and patrick - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZVy1PPQOhU.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:57 | 6033572 FMOTL
FMOTL's picture

Christine Lagard made that last chart. 394 adds up to 7

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:11 | 6033767 CHX
CHX's picture

And this week the month of May starts... And 5-1-2015 adds up to 2 times 7... LOL

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:58 | 6033573 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This shit can keep going up.  Zimbabwe was the best stock market to be in during the housing melt down, and not cause it was a well run market.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:59 | 6033575 venturen
venturen's picture

DOW 100.000 Pieces of worthless paper!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 08:59 | 6033577 netpounder
netpounder's picture

Time to reverse mortgage the house and buy stocks.  Sarc.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:00 | 6033580 CHX
CHX's picture

Maybe, just for the heck of it I will buy 1 share of apple, so I can claim I bought the FATH... And if that 1 share quintuples to the moon and beyond, I will be rich... LOL. 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:00 | 6033581 gmak
gmak's picture

6. The number of pundits expounding on a blow-off top disappear.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:40 | 6033682 bobby02
bobby02's picture

I'd settle for one way to tell this is a Charles Hugh-Smith piece that SHOULD be blown off, that is, without falling for the clickbait.

 

I thought even a broken clock was right twice a day. I guess the same does not apply to a broken record.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:13 | 6033620 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it isn't a market it is a fed policy tool

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:44 | 6033687 forwardho
forwardho's picture

It's worse than that, It is, and has been since 2008 a propaganda tool.

As the only metric that shows a "recovery" It has to be propped up.

A physical manifestation of the fantasy kept alive for the benefit of willfully ignorant lemmings.

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:19 | 6033623 philosophers bone
philosophers bone's picture

Many have made the mistake of predicting the timing of the next collapse / crash.  It's not possible to accurate predict when you've got unlimited pockets propping it up.  That being said, I am going to make a "fearless prediction":  The crash / collapse won't happen until all or a majority of the G20 countries have "bank bail-in" laws in place that are satisfactory to the Bank of International Settlements per the 2013 paper which sets out how "weekend" bank recapitalizations could occur.  I haven't followed the status of the enactment of those laws in all countries, but I know Canada is planning to have a second draft of the legislation published by the summer of 2015 with plans to enact in 2016. So my prediction is that the Central Banks will hold this shit together with scotch tape until they have the legal mechanism in place in as many countries as possible.

Democracy is working so well, ain't it?  You can't stop the will of "The People".

The concept of "your savings" in a financial institution is an oxymoron.  You've lent it to them and they are insolvent.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:19 | 6033809 HopefulCynical
HopefulCynical's picture

Either the banksters are eradicated, or humanity will be. Filthy fucking parasitic psychopaths.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:07 | 6034419 walküre
walküre's picture

do you take our "scotch" tape with or without ice?

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:18 | 6033637 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"depends on how much currency the Fed throws into the market."

They'll throw everything at it because it's the only thing they have going for them.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:19 | 6033639 Blopper
Blopper's picture

Margin debt means nothing, as proven since years ago that ZH kept bringing up the margin debt as some sort of market top indicator that still fail to work on time. A broken clock is no indication of accuracy despite being right two times a day.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:26 | 6033653 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

But it's different this time.

The Fed has neutralized itself.

Congress is impotent.

Asset bubbles will continue.

Until someone says EIE.

Maybe Donna Rice will save the world.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 12:20 | 6038709 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Old McDonald had a farm, E.I.E i. O. You forgot the i O my man.     Milestones

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:26 | 6033656 Budnacho
Budnacho's picture

Don't know what you guys are doing but I think it's time to open that E-Trade account I was thinking of and get in on some of this....seems like a pretty good deal!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:31 | 6033665 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Buy 6 shares of Amazon and you'll be ok.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:32 | 6033667 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Algos will gather all the shorts in and then do a major squeeze to rocket-shoot the market again.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:36 | 6033674 TomB
TomB's picture

I'm starting to think it will be time to sell when ZH gets bullish about the market ;)

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:38 | 6033679 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

ZH staff are all humanitarians.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:14 | 6033783 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

As opposed to vegetarian.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:03 | 6033739 Osmium
Osmium's picture

At least in a few weeks when the "markets" continue to make new highs, they can retire the 394 week chart.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:36 | 6033675 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."   

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:15 | 6033785 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"I can't do that, Dave."

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:43 | 6033688 Feel it Reel it
Feel it Reel it's picture

Serious question if someone can please help me understand aside from the Stock market...What would it mean if we weren't 18 trillion in debt? Let's say we were only 3-4 trillion in debt and currently we have 2-3 trillion in tax reciepts annually coming in? What would it mean to the average person and our economy if the U.S was virtually debt free? I never hear any Politician, economist, pundit, professor, talk show host, etc. explain this... I'd like a seroius answer to my question...Thank you...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:55 | 6033717 madcows
madcows's picture

rand paul is the only one i know that seems to speak about our debt.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:11 | 6033718 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The answers you will get will depend on whether or not the person believes that all that debt really matters or not.  Either way, debt is a claim on future productivity.  Assuming the debt itself is not fraudulent.

Real productivity in the constant and forever growth model that the world has adopted, requires that we have an ever and exponentially increasing amount of real resources and energy available for consumption.

Good luck with that.

 

In terms of growth in all things related to useless paper pushing and financial "products"...  well, that can go on and on forever because these things are "created" out of thin fucking air.  It can continue as long as that paper is accepted in exchange for real goods and services, could be a while.  remember, there is a sucker born every minute...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:13 | 6033953 JohnGaltsChild
JohnGaltsChild's picture

It would mean that your grandchildren will be able to eat.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 12:57 | 6034087 hoist the bs flag
hoist the bs flag's picture

 Laws of Physics...2 clicks down below, answered the question like a boss.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 09:56 | 6033722 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Paradoxes:  plate tectonics destroy thru earthquakes, but also raise mountains; volcanoes bury victims in ash and fell trees, but also create islands w/ growing mountains, etc.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:00 | 6033733 Brazen Heist
Brazen Heist's picture

Not until monetary policy changes. Till then, the ponzi is being propped up by governments, algos, banks, central banks, asset managers and bored housewives looking for a quick buck.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:00 | 6033734 ross81
ross81's picture

The MSM are actually correct. These markets are indeed backed by fundamentals. The fundamental of money printing. So really the Dow, the Dax and Shanghai will probably keep soaring.

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:03 | 6033741 Ckierst1
Ckierst1's picture

These are Holomarkets.  QE is is the oxycontin of holaddiction and the S&P is Minuet.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:30 | 6033744 CHX
CHX's picture

<<< Top is in or near

<<< Break out and it will all go even more NFATH-er

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:08 | 6033756 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The only ones who know the top in the markets are the too big to fail banks who control all the movements in the markets using alogrithms and the derivatives markets. The markets will only come down when they are positioned to benefit from the fall in prices.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:13 | 6033781 CHX
CHX's picture

And that is when they and the insiders have unloaded enough shares to the retail shoeple... When this turns, watch out below.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 00:43 | 6036824 Otrader
Otrader's picture

"You're either on the inside or the outside"

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:32 | 6033848 HopefulCynical
HopefulCynical's picture

EXACTLY THIS.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:37 | 6033803 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The reset will be at market highs, not lows.

That's obvious.

Reset meaning units instead of dollars.

Mutual/Virtual fiat unit credit  money.

It means the same shit in a different package.

The short position will be the discount.

Shorts will never win here anymore pre-discount of the new shit dollar unit coming soon.

That's why it's different this time.

It wont stop the young fools from buying puts.

LOL..................................

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:46 | 6033888 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Blowoff top?

 

Maybe the start but shorting them now would be like shorting in September of 1999.  Were you right?  Yea eventually, could you hold em for another 2500 points on the COMP, doubtfull....  You probably got blown the fuck out and liquidated near the top.   

 

We have the potential to ramp even more this time around and may we never come back down this time.    

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:48 | 6033894 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

they will run the stops AT LEAST one more time.  BTFATHB!

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:56 | 6033902 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

How many days will Jim Cramer wear his iWatch? 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 10:55 | 6033916 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

i picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:14 | 6033957 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Here in the Bay Area (Kali), traffic is at its absolute worst - Ever.    Traffic at peak hours (AM/PM) is a fairly reliable indicator of employment.   Which means there is in fact, a very real correlation to cheap $money, economic growth and finally, employment.   How all this correlates to a market top is anyone's guess, but I would suggest (at least in this little bubble Shangri-La of economic juiciness), that we may at least be approaching it.   Housing prices and rents as well...

 

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:25 | 6033976 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Well, we all know 'The market can stay irrational exuberant longer than you can stay solvent' story. My timing always has been too early, sometimes a year, sometimes two years, so I say end 2016 beginning 2017 we'll see some serious shit when all the bad financing in leveraged stock buybacks, faulty oil bets and financing has worked itself trough the system not to mention the high dollar.

Oil-fund outflows bode ill for prices http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-fund-outflows-bode-ill-for-prices-2...

Investors Fleeing U.S. Stock Funds At a Rate Last Seen In 2009, Despite New Records $79 Billion Pulled This Year http://www.marketwatch.com/story/correction-ahead-investors-exit-stocks-...

According to Goldman, the pace of buybacks is now absolutely off the charts, with nearly $1 trillion in buyback announcements expected in just this calendar year, a mindboggling number, one which is the same size as the largest annual Fed Quantitative Easing amount in any one year going back to the great financial crisis. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-27/goldman-warns-companies-halt-bu...

The market correction could be further out than the 10%-15% expected at first. A 30%-35% correction seems more likely now. But of course the FED will jump in but this will make the market correction only bigger. The mountain always looks a lot bigger when you get close to it.

Fri, 05/01/2015 - 05:45 | 6049769 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Like said: Marc Faber: Stocks are about to fall 40% - at least http://www.cnbc.com/id/102633564

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:33 | 6034026 tedstr
tedstr's picture

The sooner you stop predicting the market and start following the market the sooner you make more money.  More money has been lost predicting crashes than in actual crashes

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:40 | 6034038 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The world hasn't experienced a global reset like this since Westphalian reset.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:44 | 6034047 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The sooner the Federal Reserve stops quantitative easing, the free market will return without the Quants computer bullshit. Fuck off cunt. 

Re Tedstr:

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:58 | 6034100 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Young fool.

The old market is dead.

Adapt or die.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 12:55 | 6034359 tedstr
tedstr's picture

The trend is your friend.  Who you callin cunt?  Dickhead

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 00:12 | 6036771 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

I'm all with you buddy. 

The traders that do best, are the ones that don't give a shit about why. They just trade with the trend. No fancy bullshit.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 12:37 | 6034161 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

It is very ill advised to make 'following the market' as your market strategy because that is exactly the way you're head will roll once 'the market takes the elevator down', to keep it in Wall Street terms. And it always does eventually. Some Heads Are Gonna Roll! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1EnufbzFb0

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:38 | 6034034 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Black beans and turnips will hit Michelle Obama's school menu. 

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 00:17 | 6036780 Pitiful
Pitiful's picture

At least that's better than what they are serving to the poor bastards now... Nothin' but sugar.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 11:53 | 6034080 Mister Delicious
Mister Delicious's picture

China had to amass massive debt to compete with the othe rmajor economies - which were also creating debt.

None of this is going to be paid off.

But the haircuts will see the major banks and those behind them richly rewarded with .gov gold, maybe confiscations, bail ins, neg rates, and perhaps some national parks and such.

Time to look closely at the Enclave Clause, etc.

http://www.vlrc.org/articles/44.html

Imagine if people in every state sued the federal government for declarative judgment that federal land within a state not under a federal facility is state land by origin or reversion.

We may find the parks and wetlands have *already* been promised to someone.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 13:12 | 6038972 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Delicious, you have a very profound grasp and knowledge of the Constitution. I am impressed!          Milestones

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:09 | 6034428 walküre
walküre's picture

it will happen when nobody expected it but all will say they saw it coming...

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 13:18 | 6034461 Feel it Reel it
Feel it Reel it's picture

@LawsofPhysics, Thank you! Best answer I've ever heard and understood

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:05 | 6034687 The Count
The Count's picture

I'll tell y'all what to look for (just send me 10% of any profit you make off this);

Wait for one more crazy rise (think straight up) and the 'experts' claiming this is just the beginning/the market just can't go down anymore...then bail. You'll be pretty darn close to selling at the top my friends. How close are we to this? Pretty close but nobody knows for sure...time is like an oil spill on the ocean, constantly changing its exact shape, but the overall picture remains the same.

PS Another sure give away is when you see house wives on TV discussing which stock to buy.

 

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 14:49 | 6034853 R19
R19's picture

My SP500 2,500 t-shirts are already with designers. WE WILL NOT BE DENIED. THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT - THE DAWNING OF A NEW AGE OF PROSPERITY.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 15:57 | 6035113 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Hurstcycles expert says it's time to turn for the S&P 500;

http://hurstcycles.com/time-to-turn-sp-500/

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 16:09 | 6035158 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Due to the timing of this article,the farse will go on! 4eva

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 21:07 | 6036295 Macon Richardson
Macon Richardson's picture

Pods! You been keeping up with the important stuff. the Chinese knitting women, the banana trader, the gourmet grill cheese capitalization! Thanks for reminding us of these wonderful examples of modern capitalism.

Macon

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 22:37 | 6036567 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

errr... make that 5

 

IMC Proposes Initial Stock Offering Price at $12 to $14 Deal could raise more than $185 million at high end

 

Larry Thomas -- Furniture Today, April 27, 2015

 

HIGH POINT — Showroom operator International Market Centers, which owns the World Market Center in Las Vegas and about 60 percent of High Point’s showroom space, has proposed that its initial public stock offering be priced at $12 to $14 per share and said the IPO could raise more than $185 million.

In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Monday, IMC said it plans to sell at least 11.5 million shares. The underwriter of the offering has an option to purchase an additional 1.725 million shares, and if all shares are sold at the maximum offering price, the IPO could raise $185.15 million, according to the filing.

At the maximum offering price, the company would have a market value of about $694.4 million.

The current owners of IMC, funds affiliated with the investment firms of Bain Capital Partners and Oaktree Capital Management, would retain a 77 percent stake in the company once the IPO is completed.

Final pricing of the shares is planned for May 7, and the shares tentatively would begin trading the following day on the New York Stock Exchange.

In the filing, IMC said it will use most of the proceeds to pay down debt. However, it also would pay Bain and Oaktree $5.3 million to terminate an advisory agreement and pay an additional $4 million to buy out a minority limited partner.

In 2014, IMC had revenues of $162.8 million and a net loss of $29.6 million. For the first quarter of 2015, revenues were $42.1 million and the net loss totaled $3.2 million.

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 23:54 | 6036748 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

I think they said

 

Sell in May and go away.

 

Good Luck

Mon, 04/27/2015 - 23:52 | 6036742 Muppet
Muppet's picture

AAPL results will push the market higher.  I'd love a top, but as Dana Cravey imitating Geo. Bush senior would say "not gonna happen".   SSDD.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 01:32 | 6036878 HonestlyExpress...
HonestlyExpressingYourself's picture

I think people oversimplify past tops as 'everyone buying' and complete unanimity in positive views on the market: clearly this never actually happens. Every buyer is matched by a seller at all times. Also the stock market is fundamentally like one giant debate between buys and sells - there can never be a total absence of dissenters and bears. In 2000 high profile and vocal bears included Robert Shiller and many others. Stanley Druckenmiller sold out in early 2000 only to go all-in again a few months later and lose 3bn (as related by Hussman in this weeks post). The 'top' is a dangerous place of smoke and mirrors, it's never 'obvious' and there are always sirens telling you both to be scared and to be greedy. That's what makes it so hard to navigate and to call.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 02:12 | 6036918 walküre
walküre's picture

This time is different... there is no place else to put the money... and yet even with rates at all time lows, fear will eventually take over and the selling will commence.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 01:32 | 6036879 HonestlyExpress...
HonestlyExpressingYourself's picture

I think people oversimplify past tops as 'everyone buying' and complete unanimity in positive views on the market: clearly this never actually happens. Every buyer is matched by a seller at all times. Also the stock market is fundamentally like one giant debate between buys and sells - there can never be a total absence of dissenters and bears. In 2000 high profile and vocal bears included Robert Shiller and many others. Stanley Druckenmiller sold out in early 2000 only to go all-in again a few months later and lose 3bn (as related by Hussman in this weeks post). The 'top' is a dangerous place of smoke and mirrors, it's never 'obvious' and there are always sirens telling you both to be scared and to be greedy. That's what makes it so hard to navigate and to call.

Tue, 04/28/2015 - 05:07 | 6037058 Clarabell
Clarabell's picture

There will be no blowoff top. It's different this time!

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