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The Beginning Of The End Of Social Media? The Case Of Twitter
One look at the charts below and one should start wondering just how viable is social media any more as a business model.
Which brings us to to what we reported a week ago were the prophetic words of Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel, who just may have missed his IPO window...
When the market for tech stocks cools, Facebook market cap will plummet, access to capital for unproven businesses will become inaccessible, and ad spend on user acquisition will rapidly decrease - compounding problems for Facebook and driving stock even lower. Instagram may be only saving grace if they are able to ramp advertising product fast enough. Total internet advertising spend cannot justify outsized valuations of social media products that derive revenue from advertising. Feed-based advertising units will plummet in value (in the case of Twitter, advertising spend may not move beyond experimental dollars) similar to earlier devaluing of Internet display advertising.
Facebook... or any other "social media"stock.
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People keep telling me that my Pet Rock stock will never come back either ..... but I know different
Maybe they should just dump 90% of their staff. I bet that no one would notice other than Bay area realtors and Tesla salesmen
Suckerberg and his devious Facefuck can't fail soon enough to please me.
Buying Facebook is a way to "get exposure" to the surveillance state.
You can't buy stock in the NSA, but you can buy Facebook.
You can't buy stock in the NSA, but you can buy Facebook.
And Google... I'm sure they have a direct ultra-high-speed ultra-wide fiber portal directly into NSA so the gov't can vacuum up anything & everything from your emails, web-surfing, etc.
Ever wonder why Schmidt and the Google Boys are such great buds with Obozo?
Remember Google's motto... "First do no harm." Riiight!
Google takes almost 90% of all online ad revenue.
Where the hell does ad spending growth come from?
Ad spending can only really grow if GDP grows. So yeah online ad spending isn't going to grow faster than 2% pa.
All of these companies will go down in flames except for Google (who have captured the market). Facebook will never take market share from Google and neither will LinkedIn, Twitter, or whoever else tries.
Search is the internet a home page and everything else is an advert.
how many are hynotized with the various mind fucking methods available here in USSA today ?
Exactly. Twitter has that sort of bedrock stability.
First, there is the legendary loyalty of teenagers to fads.
Second, there are the barriers to entry that..., let me get back to you on this.
There are so many advertisements on social media, cable, radio, other websites, media, etc., that people are oversaturated AND TUNE IT OUT.
By a tsunami of advertising, the advertisers have managed to completely desensitize people from any purported advertising "message."
And this is GOOD.
Advertising is one of the 7 Deadly Sins of the modern era.
"Let them choketh on their 'ad spends.' "
We are truly in Idiocracy-like times, with some pharma company advertising boner medicine showing some wrinkly ass dude in a bathtub on a cliff edge, or some housewife with allergies riding a gnarly surfboard through a monster bumper crop of wheat on some farm.
What's more ludicrous is that businesses are paying $20 per click even if there are no sales. Competitors are sending out clickbots to bankrupt each other.
So are you saying we all live in massive ILLUSIONS ?
Twitter, the new Crocs
There are probably 10 years olds out there now that could create a platform like Twitter. What they lack is the first mover advantage and marketing of Twitter.
The AppStore is littered with wannabe Facebooks (Wire, Path, Google Buzz, Orkut) that never really established themselves.
The problem all these companies have, and will always have, is that they monetise by plastering advertising in a space most of us would at least like to think is private.
as the big banks continue to crap out they will be calling in all available capital as collateral for their derivative house of cards
watch what happens to facebook/amazon/newtflix and every other "over-valued" biotech/socialmedia company created to reservoir capital in plain sight and out of reach of the tax and regulatory juggernaut
Since I started freelancing I've been bringing in $90 bucks/h… I sit at home and i am doing my work from my laptop. Th? best thing is that i get more time to spent with my family and with my kids and in the same time i can earn enough to support them... You can do it too. Start here... www.globe-report.com
When is Enron coming back?
Many Eron-types out there. The Fed's credit expansion has taught many people that you can become rich by creating many Enrons.
it already has, it's called Netflix. 45 billion Enterprise Value of smoke and mirrors.
Don't laugh too loud. Netflix will destroy the joke that's the Canadian TV industry, and not a moment too soon.
Netflix just laughed when Canadian regulators mooted taxing them to subsidize production of crap Canadian content. In the end the CRTC (Canada's FCC, more or less) relaxed the CanCon regulations instead, realizing it was that or Canadian TV networks would go broke sooner rather than later:
http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/03/12/crtc-lowering-canadian-conten...
Netflix may not be worth $45B, but neither would Canada's whole mainstream media if it wasn't so heavily protected.
Netflix has the right business model. What's pulling it back is steroid expansion that contributes to debt and the cost of content. That's why they're producing their own show. Give time, with the natural extinction of old media, cost of content should drop and Nextflix itself will dictate contract terms for rented media.
The only thing that's keeping TV afloat is the death grip onto live sport event broadcasts that they're not willing to give up for anything. The moment Netflix manages to aquire live streaming rights for sports that'll be the final nail in the coffin of its competition.
Valuations are out of this world, but where's the cheap competition? It doesn't exist. Content sets the baseline, and it's not like someone else can acquire the same shows for less and undercut their monopoly.
Netflix has a serious, deep & long-term vulnerability in that it fails to own the "pipes" (conduit & infrastructure) by which its content gets delivered.
It's entire business model is susceptible to the whims of those who do own the infrastructure.
Also, there are relatively few barriers to entry into Netflix's business model, and it won't be long before the Googles of the world move into the space and offer free or near free competing service in exchange for monetizing eyeballs (maybe with minimal ads, etc.).
Amazon will also move much aggressively (beyond Prime free Instant Streaming) in this space.
Netflix is going to be the short of a decade soon.
Regarding low entry barrier - that's why I mentioned content costs. Whoever challenges Netflix will have to fork over as much as they do and therefore present no competition to something already established. Regarding pipes - that's about the only real obstacle. Old media companies, if they choose to incorporate telecoms and then lobby for say, multi-tier service, which they already do, they can render Neflix inoperable.
Many monopolies are already limited by legislature. An example - Vonage (a VoIP service nobody uses) got into Canadian market early and lobbied against Skype. Even though Canadians are allowed to make Skype calls out to standard phone numbers, they are a decade later, still unable to register a local Skype number for an incoming call. I use Skype for most of my communications and feel quite fortunate that I can have a local US phone number with no land line. I don't have a phone of any kind and actually use a gifted iPod when making calls. There's always a wifi nearby. I have a prepaid phone stashed in the car for emergencies.
Back to the point - I think legal battles pose more threat to Neflix than their business model. They are taking over and there is no better thing than Netflix currently. With a good lineup internal projects that they will not rent out to any other network, they're on the right track to establishing complete entertainment media dominance.
And like I said, the only thing keeping the old machines running are the sports. Netflix is working hard to secure rights to streaming content, but they're not there yet. Perhaps the best way for them to get the foot in the door is to start hosting events themselves. They'd need to gather a lot more dough before that happens.
Amazon purchased a UK Netflix (Lovefilm) and fucking destroyed it. Lovefilm had a half decent library of content at a similar price point to Netflix, post-Amazon its basically a shit version of the iTunes Store or Blinkbox. Blinkbox, as Tesco found out, is now virtually worthless.
the day Obama announces he is really half white, not half black ? and insist Frank Davis was in fact his father and his mother was a hotty in those photos
I call him "Enron Mask".
Ask Ken Lay - or whatever name he's going by these days ;)
I think this guy really wants to be an analyst...and judging from his shitty product, can one blame him?
Farcebook and Twatter will be forgotten in 5 years.
Never!
They'll live forever! Just like MySpace,.. eh?,... what's that?,...
Oh,... nevermind...
MySpace is still around. They have 200 or so regular users.
it's all hipster bait and when the next cool thing comes along........
That's why the hipster burned his mouth on the pizza...
He ate it before it was cool...
+1, that's actually quite clever.
It's a viable business model, as long as you keep overhead costs low and don't think you're going to take over the world. It's the problem with a lot of these companies. If they just ran it like a regular business things would be fine.
AOL, Yahoo, MySpace and dozens of other internet social media companies have proven that they are all fads and will die out or become zombies after peaking in popularity. Eventually, something more popular comes along and all the trendies flock there. The advertisers and sheeple follow.
Like the good old dot com days. Push and hype until people figure out their real value.
From one sham to another.
Next crisis will be a currency crisis.
economically yes, socially no. we will see many more fireworks before July 4 2015. My metals trade is doing quite well.
Good! Maybe this fucking facebook can go to the dustbin of history where it belongs.
I'm telling man!!!
I didn't kill fortran!
I didn't kill COBOL!
Don't look at me like that man!
I try to imagine life beyond Prodigy Dialup and I can't.
Fear not, the self-absorbed will ALWAYS find a way to make themselves feel important while being financially exploited.
Social media sucks.
I love Twitter for the anonymity that offers.
"Ad engagement Growth".... LOL...."life leaves clues..
My gawd, is it just me or are all these recent charts a little unnerving?
Baltic, Houme ownership, chinese stock, velocity if mo?ney, macro looking forward
If by unnerving you mean formerly relevant, then yes.
Google has now decided that they should provide financial support to media content generators. Which can only mean that their parasitic make money off of other people's content model's days are numbered. They don't do things out of the goodness of their heart do they.
Just remember their motto WB "don't get caught doing evil"... or something like that.....
Buying FB is like buying stock in the Gestapo or the SS or NKVD back in the Thirties.
You could buy stock in the Gestapo back in the 30's???
Wow! I coulda made a fortune,... uh,... provided I sold prior to the crash in 1944...
The NSA and Facebook have a symbiotic relationship.
If Facebook falters expect a line item in the black budget of the NSA.
Uh, I think the Gestapo is doing quite well these days. Smart money backed up the truck.
who the fuck cares what anyone says on twitter? I never really got that ...
So, you're saying you don't want to see pictures of my cats, or you don't care what restaurant I ate at last night or what show I went to?
Man; I'm hurt...
I want to know what restaurant your cats ate at last night.
The correct response is:
"That road kill only stunk a bit."
I had to close my facebook acount. I spent too much time commenting "no one cares" on peoples posts.
I love social media. Makes my business from garage into a global powerhouse. Haven't sold anything. But have thousands of friends.
Oh to be "liked" and broke again. Hated and rich is so yesterday.
I will "like" you if I ever get facepalm
see you are Nasdaq 10000!!!
I thought you knew social media stocks were there so you could BTFD. Its FED software stupid. They get to pick the winners of the world and the losers. Arrest them.
Access to capital for unproven businesses wouldn't have EVER existed if it weren't for the Fed. and it's easy $ policies.
Thank the Fed. for all the douchewad startups that have a bank account with 20 fucking cents in it, and a voice mail account.
They have zero market cap, zero fucking product, and some a-hole clown V.C. wanabe friend with too many 'Bernanke Bux' to invest and viola, a PONZI is born.
Voila.
Unless by "Viola" you meant the world's smallest, now being played for Twitter stockholders.
The comment stands. Chipmonks playing Viola. Linux still doesn't have the windows ready alt codes for the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grave_accent
I'll work on the code though...
Amazing coincidence that it peaked right at the IPO. Funny how that works.
Facebook is a study in bait-and-switch. They encouraged companies to build a community of followers, then changed the rules so only a tiny fraction of posts get seen.
Amazon being called out for what it really is as well -- at best a more expensive EBay, at worst a flea market full of counterfeit goods, another fad that won't see the same glory years from now.
Retail stores are the new black.
Twitter: It's that area between the twat and the shitter... Or as we used to quip: 'Taint pussy and 'taint asshole.
Rubbish. What would equal opportunity hires do all day at their desks while the few remaining men in the office do all the actual work?
It's easier to hide the fact you don't actually do anything at work but cash a paycheque and mark time till the arrival of Mr. Right if you tweet your trivial complaints rather than yak about them over the phone on company time.
Social media's also the best way to sell soap to people who no longer bother watching TV.
Sorry, lads. Social media's not going anywhere short of the Great Reset or a magnetic storm that sends us back to the Steam Age.
So Twitter stock dropped after the IPO. Anybody who buys stock at an IPO with his own money deserves to lose it all. What else is new?
What is CPE?
Cost Per Engagement. If you're pushing ads or promo content onTwitter you pay by CPE which is based on the number of engagements it generates - clicks, favorites, retweets.
So much hatin' ... from where I sit in S.F. it is all just mildly interesting, NAS 2.0 and all that ... this time around the day-trading aspect is nowhere near what it was in 1999 ... on the other hand there are better handcrafted liquor venues, better whiskey bars, cannabis as much as you want and excellent quality ... and lithe Chinese wimmins dressed to the nines making the fat white gals step their game up ... let another generation have at it, this is as good a course as any for them to pursue. I'm not in TWTR, FB and no one knows wtf I am, I am fine with that ...
How's that NSA 2.0 working out for you?
Admiral Michael Rogers would like to have a word with you. . . .
Some of these stocks always seemed kind of Web 1.0. That is they had all kinds of metrics to define growth and value which were not revenue and profit. Sure they are popular with users, but the web has been very poor at converting that into dollars and cents. Until people's favorite free services start to disappear or plaster over with intrusive ads, that may not change. Free only works for crack and porn.
The problem is that people are slowly becoming aware of the Spyware.
Open source computer products with super-duper-strong uncrackable encryption will be taken up when they become available.
Open source, my next computer. Big advantages. Big.
I thought it was Twatter
That's the porn version.
Stansberry said something interesting on his podcast. If the company was any good, he would not be willing to sell it. If the original owners take Twitter public so they can sell part of it, that should be the signal to run like hell. If they had complete faith in their company's ability to earn a profit, they would want to keep full ownership.
Not surprised Stansberry would say something this ignorant.
There's ads? Hm, looks like this adblock thing really works!
most of twitter is bots..just like facebook
TWTR is not run and owned by a "chosen one" like Fuckbook is, therefore, TWTR will fail while FB will prevail.