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Is Nigel Farage The UK Election's "Kingmaker"?
Via Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen,
"If voting changed anything, they would make it illegal" — Emma Goldman, Russian/American anarchist
First there were two, then three, and now there will be four major UK political parties. No wonder it’s getting more and, more difficult to make predictions for the UK election.
The two “old” parties are both far from their historic support levels, and every new General Election sees them get diluted by newcomers to the scene. The Liberal Democrats have, of course, been around for a while now, but their rise created the hung parliament of 2010.
This time it’s becoming a Scottish election as the Scottish National Party looks set to gain 41 new mandates while the Tories will lose 19, Labour will gain 15 and the LibDems will lose 32.
This leaves the major parties miles from the 326 seats needed for a majority government but –even more confusingly – even the likely coalitions are short of a majority:
Tories 283 + LDP 24 = 305
or
Labour + SNP = 271 +47 = 318
A further 19 mandates are available but are split down the middle.
Source: FiveThirtyEight
A lot can happen between now and May 7 but due to “first past the goal post” rules in the UK, a change in overall percentage vote share rarely changes the overall result. Note how the UKIP party with 23% of the popular vote might get only one or two mandates, while the LibDems with far less votes (8%) will get 18. No wonder there are calls for a new electoral law in the UK!
There is a tendency to run an election based on the “it’s the economy, stupid” concept. This, however, has some potential downsides... In the UK, they talk about the 1945 effect – the Tories won the war with Churchill but were out of office by 1945 (despite doing all the hard work).
Similarly, the Tories are now running a dangerous campaign calling for voters “not to let Labour ruin the economy”
The Tory/LibDem coalition has stabilised the UK but the country's current account deficit is out of control, meaning that the improvement has effectively been borrowed. Still, the parties point to job growth, slowly rising wages and UK’s relative GDP improvement.
The Labour Party have moved their rhetoric back to the 1970s, fighting for redistribution of wealth, wealth taxes and all the old-school policies which were so dominant during the era of big business, big tax, no growth, and over-unionised labour markets. This is a strategy that suggests a world of zero growth – again, arguing for redistribution rather than a path to new growth.
Still, Labour’s platform does address the ugly growing extremes in inequality that have resulted from an aggressive monetary policy of low rates and support for the 20% of the economy which is made up of large, publicly-traded companies and banks. Meanwhile, the 80% of the economy – the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and middle- and low income earners everywhere – are all worse off than ever.
I think this election will be decided on the basis of two factors: Inequality and how many mandates UKIP will get on May 7.
The UK's economic numbers may look okay on the surface, but inequality is hard to run from as the 80% have been the biggest losers since the financial crisis started. The problem for the Tories is that these 80% are also the middle class, the voters who are politically engaged. They feel left behind and (I am sure) frustrated by the lack of change and hope. This makes UKIP an interesting alternative. They are the “protest party” for many of these voters.
Will a desire to protest the current establishment see Nigel Farage's UKIP broaden its mandate in the upcoming election?
We know from France and Spain how parties deemed to be "extreme" fare relatively poorly in polls but people are far braver at expressing their political opinion behind the curtains of the voting booth.
An Electoral Calculus table suggests that with 20% of the national vote (they have polled above 20% several times in the last two years), UKIP could win eight seats; 24% would produce 46 mandates.
Finally we need to address the elephant in the room which is that we are likely to see this UK General Election serve as a pivot point leading to a UK referendum on the European Union. A UK exit from the EU is the single biggest threat to the EU’s future and is significantly more important than whether we see a Grexit or not.
The UK is the "anchor" for most liberal European countries – certainly for Denmark, Sweden and The Netherlands. We all count on the UK to step up when Brussels (and often Club Med) gets too busy handing out “presents” paid for by Europe’s taxpayers. Losing the UK will not only render the EU rudderless but will also create a massive need for the European financial industry to redefine itself.
This UK election will mirror many elections around Europe (since the crisis started) in focusing on inequality and the need for political protest. This could make for big moves in the mandates... I foresee Scottish National Party and UKIP protest votes proving far more numerous than the latest polls suggest.
This could lead to a likely Tory/LibDem coalition supported by UKIP. UKIP's support will come with a UK referendum on the EU in 2016. This opens a can of worms as the EU will have to fight for its life by as it juggles the potential fallout from a Grexit, Brexit and a QE-exit.
Whatever happens on May 7, the UK is moving towards a dramatic change in its political spectrum. It is heading away from a two-tier system and towards a vote for or against the EU.
This will mean that if you want "no changes", there has never been a better time to make elections illegal.
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EXACTLY how Hitler got into power.
I'd love for Nigel to get into the Commons, with a few MPs. He makes a few great YouTube clips every Wednesday with a Labour government.
Thereafter when everything goes to Hell, he gets a ton of votes and lives at No. 10.
In other news, Euro Girl supports Nigel Farage.
Only Euro Girl can leave a press conference without touching the ground.
Nigel looks like he is doing a Guy Fawkes impression in that picture.
Nice layout of the left/right paradigm. Simulated democracy.
Nigel looks like he is doing a Guy Fawkes impression in that picture.
I want to believe that.
Sad to say, my own working assumption is that Nigel is not going to be PM---short of his completely selling out or Russian boots on the ground, come to the City to help the banksters pack.
UKIP's people are the white British workers Labour despaired of turning into socialists, and have spent the last 50 years replacing with niggers. The British working class are not to be allowed any real power. They never have been.
Vote UKIP, sure. But keep looking for jobs in Australia.
I can tell you the Germans just across the channel are a pretty great place to live. Jobs are easy to come by, and the muslim population is pretty mild mannered. Land is cheap, and the government tends to leave you alone well enough. Cameras aren't stuck in the bushes & the alcohol is excellent over here.
An Electoral Calculus table suggests that with 20% of the national vote (they have polled above 20% several times in the last two years), UKIP could win eight seats; 24% would produce 46 mandates.
I would suspect that after the election some MP's from Red Blue team will walk across the floor to UKIP.................
Go Nigel
Fingers crossed for Purple Power! The intellectual elites who ceded all power and control to the freakshow socialist elites should be hung in the town square! Unfortunately many have no clue of the damage and destruction that has been visited upon them. Great Britain has been reduced to a mere shadow of its former self to insane & lethal global control interests! Those great ones who fought couragiously and died bravely to defend democracy & liberty much be doing summersaults in their graves!
I'd love for Nigel Farage and his UKIP to get into the Commons winning a huge majority, and getting straight to No. 10, and then take the UK out of the EU, with or without a referendum
but Washington, interestingly, would not like it. Scotland neither, and even Greater London would have fits. it could even end in both Scotland and Greater London leaving the UK and rejoining the EU, something I suspect most readers here would scoff about. But there it is, England is, politically, getting further and further away from the other two
meanwhile, I have to laugh about the author of this article, a banker from the Danish SaxoBank:
"A UK exit from the EU is the single biggest threat to the EU’s future" LOL, yes, of course. how so? 26 countries getting discouraged like little children left in the dark because the UK leaves? sure /S
and here "Note how the UKIP party with 23% of the popular vote might get only one or two mandates, while the LibDems with far less votes (8%) will get 18. No wonder there are calls for a new electoral law in the UK!"
which then, very "logically", leads him to end with "This will mean that if you want "no changes", there has never been a better time to make elections illegal", which is actually paraphrasing Emma Goldman, a Russian/American anarchist, who said "If voting changed anything, they would make it illegal" (source: his full article)
and which starts to make me wonder if it has become fashionable for Chief Investment Officers of "Investment Banks" (read "Masters Of The Universe") to dabble in anarchic musing, and what this means in term of their customers (sometimes called "muppets" by the Masters of the Universe)
well, Mr. Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen , perhaps the British voters will make you eat Emma Goldman's words. I am not an anarchist, but if I was one, I'd resent such a chief wanker, pardon me, banker as you to quip this way into anarchist ideology, and would ask for the "none of the above" to win, not a nationalist-while-self-styled-libertarian like our dear Nigel, who came only on the British national political scene thanks to a looooong spell on the benches of the hated EU Parliament, something which reminds me the many "governments-in-exile" of the past
The elections are just as fucking irrelevant in the UK as in the US. The apparent plethora of political parties is smoke and mirrors.
Stoopid comment. Obviously you know nothing about history.
You may want to try learning about the real history of that period instead of spouting communists/jewish propaganda.
The tribal trolls are harder to get rid of than a bad rash!
Exactly as slaves really think there are such things as HEROS
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One point does not in any way prove the other.
Exactly not.
NWO should prolong their attack by giving up some ground at this point.
who cares? does it affect the price of gold?
Gold will be fine, it has been for thousands of years.
Trust me on this one. When you die, you'll understand.
The difference is that UKIP oppose the establishment, and so will get only a few seats---and those only in areas where wholesale ballot-box stuffing by Muslims isn't possible without attracting attention.
The Nats, who want to dissolve the union and sell Scotland and what remains of its oil to the Germans, have worlds to conquer, now that both the Labour and Tory brand are worthless in Scotland.
Did you know the Nats' original leadership supported Hitler and many were jailed for opposing conscription at the height of the war, when even the banksters had been woken up by the Blitz? You do now.
"UKIP oppose the establishment"
Unless it's the bit that sells fucking loads of tanks and bombs. They loooove that bit of the establishment.
Kill moar brown people! It's great for GDP!
Odd. Farage has a refreshingly rational attitude towards Russia and the "Ukraine" question. If it's warmongers you want, try the Tories or Labour.
He can say what he likes, he isn't the party, and it's naive in the extreme to think UKIP is immune to the will and leverage of corps and banksters. I wonder how many voting morons have actually read the manifesto. I don't want Tories or Labour either, there's just something about criminals thieves and murderers I don't like, seems odd I know.
Edit:
A little gift for the lazy UKIP fans out there that seem to think I'm wrong about UKIP's MIC love. We're a tiny island of c~65m. What the merry fuck?!:
"We will phase in increased defence spending over the next five years up to an additional £4 billion by 2020. This will return funding to the pre-SDSR level, and allow for £1 billion yearly expenditure on capital projects deemed to be of the highest strategic priority by the MoD."Farage's position is 'out of Europe, but still in NATO'. He will be just another war monger when it comes down to it.
well, at the end he is an "Atlanticist", he is a supporter of globalization and he is a supporter (and Fellow of) the City of London, aka "The Great Banking Nexus"
but he rides, politically, on the worries of the "Little Man of England", who is threatened by... globalization and the banks. His speciality is to point to the EU and convince his voters that the EU and globalization ride on the exact same horse
his biggest help comes from Cameron and the Torys, who claim that immigration can't be "fixed" as long as the UK is in the EU, which is mostly, but not completely right, then as long as the UK is in the EU this means that continentals can travel into and work in the UK as freely as Britons can on the Continent. Note how this leaves the other, bigger side of British Immigration from the former Empire completely out of the picture
meanwhile, Cameron is the biggest supporter inside the EU of the TTIP, which, if it would ever pass, would mean that the EU is then completely and abjectly bent on the Full Monty globalization train which, btw, was always a British scheme, the end of all borders in regard to capital and trade (and usually more). Now that would be the death knell of the EU, in a fully globalized world there is no need for such things like a trading/regulatory alliance
lots of confusion, on the Fair Isles of Albion, but that's only my opinion
Idiot, in order for a British company to export arms it requires an export license from the MoD. In order to obtain this you need to supply an end user certificate stating that the receiving party is a recognized state and not under any sanctions relating to the materials. Now, genius please explain to me, was UKIP ever in charge of the MoD? All the arms deals you have in mind were completed under a Torry or Labour government. BTW the end user certificate is where all the fraud and illegal arms trafficking happens. It is not hard for the MoD to verify, but they choose to look the other way in most cases.
So, you're saying with UKIP in charge and a promise to spend loads lining the pockets of weapons manufacturers that 'this time will be different'?
I see.
No, I am saying that for the time being you are barking up the wrong tree.
Farage went to public school, comes from a family of stockbrokers and has been a career politician for 16 years; he's as much part of the establishment as any of them.
As a former UK soldier this cunt offends me, pretends to want what's best for the UK by saying we "need out of the EU" - while planning TPP and TTIP behind the peoples backs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfjDHY8lfH0
Farage is not mentioned in the video even a single time..? You're trolling?
Edit: ok, I searched a bit on the web and you might be right, Farage is not opposing the TTIP. I think UK is the main actor who is pushing the agreement in EU.
He just another actor like Boris Johnson. He plays the 'one of us' part quite well, but ultimately is the same as Cameron, Osborne, Blair, Clegg.
They're all playing the "one of us" card. Its fucking lame. Look at Hilary trying to play that card....its shameless.
Having met the man in person and talked to him I disagree. Until recently he was driving himself onto the Channel Ferry for Brussels every Sunday night. He's grounded. I know which one I'd want to spend an evening in the pub with....
Having met the man in person and talked to him I disagree. Until recently he was driving himself onto the Channel Ferry for Brussels every Sunday night. He's grounded. I know which one I'd want to spend an evening in the pub with....
UKIP and SNP are the wild cards in this election. The Greens are irrelevant.
The one thing that SNP and UKIP have in common: nationalism. But this is a complementary form of nationalism, where both respect and support the decision to let Scotsmen and Englishmen to act separately. In every other respect, the "too extreme" parties are at odds with each other.
I expect that there will be a coalition of Labour and Conservatives in the next government, because there is nothing more important that maintaining the status quo.
I wish that anti-EU sentiment was strong enough to shake up the status quo. But the British are now more afraid of independence than they have ever been before.
When you have been a slave for long enough, nothing looks as terrifying as Freedom.
"I wish that anti-EU sentiment was strong enough to shake up the status quo."
you seem to wish for a shake up of the status quo. I'd wish the EU sentiment would be on the base of rational grounds. In or out, I don't care, but I do wish Britons would have a rational, frank and honest discussion on all things related to their neighbours and that club. Frankly, all that bullshit up to now is getting stale
Vote for Green !
I'm voting for Pedro.
Putin FTW
brits lack sarcasam .
Attempted sarcasm fail.
UKIP will do far better in the coming Election than is reflected in the Polls, this is based on my on-the-ground experience last week. Nigel is the only voice of economic sanity we have left. Only UKIP acknowledges the true DEEP DEEP financial mess we are in and have a plan to get us out. Lets hope the prospective member for Thanet South can stir it up. This is a man who doesn't need an auto-cue and is in it for change rather than personal glory and lining his own pocket.
You get my "Kiss of Death" upvote !
So even if they are going to get 13% instead of 3% what is that going to change? Even if they phucking won with say 30%(not gonna happen) .. would that rly change anything(doubtful)?
Even a few UKIP seats could force a referendum on membership of the EU which would have a LOT of impact on other member states.
I think they're ones to watch, the UKIP supporting crowd (white middle class ageing little englanders) are probably the demographic most likely to vote. If you phone/online poll 1000 people you're going to get a different result to the one where people have to walk/drive half a mile out of their way to a polling station. The young, and working class are easily distracted by a Kardashian tweet or too exhuasted from work to actually turn up.
fuck the british....and the tribe.......
''Pitting as it did the might of the globe-girdling British Empire, backed by international finance''
''As often happens in history, important aspects of the Anglo-Boer conflict came to light only years after the fighting had ended. In a masterful 1979 study, The Boer War, British historian Thomas Pakenham revealed previously unknown details about the conspiracy of British colonial officials and Jewish financiers to plunge South Africa into war. The men who flocked to South Africa in search of wealth included Cecil Rhodes, the renowned English capitalist and imperial visionary, and a collection of ambitious Jews who, together with him, were to play a decisive role in fomenting the Boer war.''
http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v18/v18n3p14_Weber.html
Top book. One more appalling episode during the British Empire.
Baltimore/Ferguson style Muslim riots coming soon .... but, worse .... the Muslims don't need liberal handlers .... and they can access benefits all by themselves .... they've got some brains .... evil, yes !
The 'Muslims' have CIA/MI6/Mossad handlers.
Vote for Mossad!
(i.e, any of the above)
Who Counts the Votes? .. because it sure does not matter who or for whom votes.
Might be the biggest issue! The U.K. has a very corrupt election system!
Nonsense article from start to finish. Firstly the Tories are no longer centre right and haven't been for years, they are now centre-left to left. Labour is most certainly not centre-left it's hard left, most of it's members are communists and this has been the case for decades now. UKIP is NOT a protest vote, that nonsense died a death years ago. This article writer is clueless.
In reality you are correct. The writer is correct because of public 'perception' of the lamestream parties.
Farage runs circles around his competition. He has been remarkably accurate forecasting most if not all the woes that the EU has set upon a very niave and vulnerable citizenry. It is unbelieveably how the U.K. legacy parties have sold out their country and people to unelected democracy hating capitalist hating socialist/marxist/communist interests in Brussels. Nigel & his team is the very last chance for the U.K.!
Bullshit. WE are the last chance for the UK. Thousands of years of history spent proving that all government does is create misery and death, and you still want one?
ffs.
Try a little research before spounting off irrationally!
Lol. Just lol.
A good overview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlIO7TLCULQ
Nigel Farage is my "hero".
He's my fucking corrupt "hero".
A "hero" that drinks, smokes, and a womanizer combined in one.
Ops, I forgotten. He's a liar and pretentious too.
Unfortunately, when there's no real hero around, and the people are so desperate that they don't mind believing in such "hero".
No, don't blame me for pointing this out.
He is no real hero and you know it.
But you still believe in him because you have no other real alternative.
I think its safe to say your no hero for anyone!
ukip is predicted to get one or maybe two seats out of 650 so the chances of him being "kingmaker" are nil.........
Same predicition for the European election.
Based on polls, which are very different to when voters get behind a curtain to put their cross down. We will see...
This key watershed election is all about whether the Brits want their country back or not! Nothing else! Otherwise this election is only a flimsy charade to elect a subserviant lapdog for socialist EU interests! It is astonishing how the control & power of Great Britain has been furtively expropriated from its people! Good luck with the left-wing marxism thing!
Yes, amazing, isn't it. What's even more amazing is that this has been going on for quite some time.
The restoration of the crown was an unlawful act - any history/law prof worth his salt would agree. The dissolution of parliament prior to the restoration was not carried out by the correct authority. Some inconvenient lawyer types mysteriously 'disappeared' around the time of this little bit of sleight of hand (nailgun accidents, no doubt).
Since then we've been labouring under various illigitimate monarchs.
The monarch is supposedly (lawfully) bound by the coronation oath, an oath that agrees that the crown (infact, one of the conditions of the restoration) is bound to the will of the people, and parliament is bound to the will of the crown. MPs take a councillor's oath, that they must not and cannot aid any foreign power in usurping the power of the crown (by extension the will of the people). Kinda puts the EU treaties in an awkward position, no?
Where are these wonderful laws to be found? It's all part of our constituion. Yes, we have a constitution, much of which was copied into the US constitution docs verbatim - debt, cruel and unusual punishment, etc etc. If you're not familiar with our constitution, it's because 'they' don't really want you to be.
Both our membership to the EU and our distinct lack of a republic are the direct result of unlawful acts.
Research is a wonder indeed.
Hint: When you cut and paste others distorted thoughts you should try to make sense & have a point.
Sorry, should I draw you a picture instead?
With crayons if you need!
Farage won't have any say in this election, it's too early. The SNP will tie up with Labour giving a majority and will enact spending and anti-austerity measures just as Greece brings contagion back to the fore. The UK economy will turn down and then will be tensions. Britain is about to get messy.
I'm afraid you might be correct. There are lots of forces bent on the destruction of England. That scenario will go a long way toward that tragic end! It is amazing to see its citizens just shrug their shoulders in apathetic indifference. They sure put the wank in wankers!
Britain used to control 25% of the world and now they seem incapable of ruling themselves. My how the mighty have fallen! Wait 'till they get a load of somebody else taking 100% control of their interests!
Yeah, the English are trailblazers .... for retarded humanity .... got a problem with the avante garde .... I thought leftists thought .... THEY .... were the avante garde ?