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Greek Deposits Now Lowest Since 2005; One Third Of Bank Assets Now ECB-Funded
As a refresher, here’s the latest on Greece. Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is scrambling to “reshuffle” his negotiating team after embattled FinMin Yanis Varoufakis’ “lecturing” finally pushed EU officials over the edge in Riga last Friday. A government decree to sweep excess cash reserves from local municipalities has unsurprisingly proven to be quite controversial, leaving the government short some €400 million for pensions and salaries. Athens is still playing the Russia/Gazprom pivot card in a pitiable effort to demonstrate that Greece still has one last trick up its negotiating sleeve, and anarchists are attacking Varoufakis at dinner. You can’t make this stuff up.
In the midst of this, the Greek banking sector continues to bleed cash as the latest data from the ECB shows deposits fell by another €2.5 billion in March, bringing the total to €27 billion (or around half a month’s worth of PSPP purchases) since December. Here’s more via Goldman:
The ECB released the March deposit data today (April 29), which paints a solid deposit picture across all markets, with the exception of Greece. Here, deposit outflows continued and reached €2.5 bn in March, driven by the decline in retail (-2%), public sector/other balances (-5%).
And of course more ELA means more deposit flight…
Between December and March, the Greek banks have lost €27 bn of deposits, a 16% decline. During this period, the stock of corporate deposits is down 29%, retail 13% and other 14%. The hike in the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) limit by a further €5.6 bn in April implies that outflows may have re-accelerated in recent weeks.
Without market access, the ECB remains Greek banks’ sole refinancing avenue. Greek usage of ECB facilities has increased by >€60 bn over the past four months. The Greek banking system – representing 1.2% of Euro area assets – now accounts for 18% of total ECB facility usage. 27% of all Greek bank assets are now ECB-funded.
As for what happens next, projections abound with most commentators predicting some iteration of Citi’s “Grimbo” scenario involving capital controls, defaults, and a kind of slow motion economic collapse which may (or may not) shock both Greece and its creditors into action. For their part, Deutsche Bank sees a 50% chance of a national referendum following a “reluctant” agreement with creditors. Of course, there’s still a one in three chance of ELA suspension and all of the rather unpalatable things that come with it. Here’s more:
After the first few weeks' honeymoon period, the electorate is turning more cautious on the administration's negotiating strategy, reflected in declining approval ratings for both the government and PM Tsipras himself. Most significantly, even as tensions rise, polls show continued and overwhelming public support for a European solution: between "rupture" or "agreement", opinion polls consistently point to more than 70% support for the latter…
PM Tsipras gave a wide-ranging interview to a Greek TV news channel. The deadlock in terms of sticking points was confirmed, yet the PM's statements on the government's negotiating strategy were more important. When asked on the way forward if an agreement violating electoral promises is required, the Prime Minister signaled that a referendum would be his preferred route, ruling out a general election…
A referendum now looks as the most likely outcome (reflecting the current scenario, we would see an indicative 50% probability): the government would reach a "reluctant agreement" with Europe followed by a national referendum for popular approval...
Most importantly, ongoing delays in negotiations and/or an accidental default, insufficient time to hold a referendum/change government, or an active decision to reject an agreement would likely lead to a suspension of ECB financing of Greek banks (30% probability). On this front, Draghi has recently signaled that a change in the haircuts of collateral submitted to ELA financing is possible, with a decision as soon as the May 8th ECB meeting…
Assuming the above is the case, the ultimate cut-off point for an agreement will still be defined by the time when the Greek government exhausts its cash position: any disbursement from creditors will materialize only after a full-staff level agreement and approval through parliament of a number of agreed prior actions. Liquidity in the meantime continues to drain, with the government legislating a forcible deposit of municipal/regional government excess liquidity into a central bank account last week, and similar legislation for pension funds possible. There are conflicting reports on whether enough cash is available to service the May 12th payment to the IMF.
Meanwhile, on the ground in Greece:
- GPO POLL SHOWS 61.9% OF GREEKS OPPOSE REFERENDUM ON AGREEMENT
Apparently then, Greeks oppose austerity, oppose leaving the euro, and oppose a refrendum on staying.
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For good measure, here's a look at Grexit risk over time as measured be Sentix's Euro breakup index:
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They still have deposits?
The lowest since (before) Lehman.
But but but but but but .... almost all the deposits are from the ECB meaning if the banks go belly and there's a buy-in then the ECB's own deposits are those that got bought in so..... kinda demonstrates once again that all the Greeks need to do is say "When you give me more money, I'll pay you back. Strings attached? No thanks."
PS If the deposits are the lowest since before Lehman then they're the lowest since Lehman also.
Ah, the mighty get sucked into shit of their very own making
Sometimes, there is no velvet divorce.
A "Greek Deposit"? Is that something like a "chocolate Ashcroft"? Does it include a reach around?
Knuckles, your using logic again and you should know better. We're getting into riot season and the Greek population is starting to get really pissed they've been lied to...again. The EU assumes they'll win because they control the money spigot but "destroying the country in order to save it" Might just make countries like Italy a bit suspicious of the troika's honesty....
Actually Greek deposits are coming back from the Swiss banks...who were stashing a few trillion dollars of untaxed money of the entire world until now!
Swiss banks will lose billions and Greece will receive billions....tax amnesty has been announced (yet to be passed in next few days)...pay 15 to 20% as penalty and no criminal actions and no questions on source of funds shall be asked. Courtesy : Yanis - the great debt slayer!
3 countries have done tax amnesties on untaxed moneys so far. Pakistan did the same in 2012. Russia did in Dec 2014 and now it is the turn of Greece in 2015.
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Tax amnesty for undeclared funds
Never forget, the Russia and China support is yet to come!
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I thought Greek Deposits were something that the gays did to each other?
Greek women can "deposit" just as well as the gays.
Once Greek women reach a certain age there's no telling them from the men what with the body and facial hair.
<mmmrrrphh>.......
......just threw up in my mouth a little.
The body & facial hair in Greek and many E. Mediterranean and MENA women is a congenital (inherited) hormone thing.
Nothing that a good German doctor couldn't fix, using Hormone* Therapy.
* Sounds like something else, something naughty.
Hey, does anybody know what time this afternoon the Jews tell us Goyim what everything will be worth, is it 2 or 2:15pm?
no more russina money to launder in greece
Barter. Do it.
Greece, the country that had a debt to GDP ratio of 100% back in 2006, the height of the boom times.
Fuck the Greeks.
To me, the Tell was this ZH text: "Most significantly, even as tensions rise, polls show continued and overwhelming public support for a European solution: between "rupture" or "agreement", opinion polls consistently point to more than 70% support for the latter…"
They remind me of a disgruntled wife who claims her husband abuses, sodomizes and beats her, but she won't leave if it means no "Alimony foreva", or she has to get a job.
I sympathize for the sane minority, but I SWEAR that the 70% majority are: brainless, gutless, hopeless, parasites, and useless douches. Such Darwinian Losers and Cling-ons deserve NO libertarian sympathy. None!
No wonder German bankers taunt them and wave their private parts in their general direction, you sons of window dressers. Respect is earned!
The ECB protects its own. They pledge more billions of euro backing to Greek banks--but not one cent to the Greek government or the Greek people. It is not into capex-style investment.
Greek Banks Get More Funds as ECB Weighs Collateral DiscountSurprisingly Greek Banks are still open for business! Apparently it is just not bad enough yet.
Joking aside, when the Greeks pull the plug the ECB pulls their deposits and Greek Banks will look like Akropolis in 10 years.
Government is not only the biggest murderer on the planet, but also the biggest thief. Why would any sane Greek person keep any money at all in Greek banks knowing the government/banker cabal thieves were frothing at the mouth to steal it?
Look at them over there, not a single constitutional conservative in sight.
It is big government progressives that OWN that shit man.
Embrace the progressive suck folks.
Grimaldus
No worries. It's not just the Greeks who are going to get a haircut.
Everyone in this fiat system is fucksville, unless you own the printing press. Then you're only fucksville when you run out of ink.
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Ought to have all those greek runners running after a picture of Bruce Jenner running away......in a dress.
not hearing about Argentina much these days, eh?
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2015/04/argentina-a-case-study-of-israels-zioni...
Would you deposit money in a Greek bank? Or for that matter, a German bank, a Danish bank, a Swiss bank, etc... paying negative interest?
And besides -- aren't deposits now a 'liability' for banks -- not an 'asset'?
We want more spending, lower taxes, no more debt, more loans... We are Greece.
I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
Do you understand why they want to ban cash now? Cash is the real threat to the banking system.
While everyone here is posting what they know, I'll contunue to post what I don't know.
And if "pushing EU officials over the edge in Riga" or in Kiev, for that matter, is what the Greek, Russian, Chinese affiliation wants to do, while maintaining the fiction that there is absolutely no unification between them, that's my feeling from reading the news.
My best guess is that this league is only playing for time when the Russian sanctions expire this July and and making sure Greece is still a voting member of the EU and has a veto over all motions that require a unanimous 28 member vote.
I'm a big fan of Putin's and hasn't he been on best behavior to get the sanctions to expire not letting Poroshenko (Nuland) make him lose his temper? And haven't we seen lately members of the EU governments (France, Germany, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, et cetera, et cetra) calling for the end of sanctions?