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'Hawkish' Hilsenrath Confirms Fed Not Worried About Q1 Growth, Rate Hikes Coming
At a stunning pace of 608 words in just 4 minutes, The Wall Street Journal's Fed-Whisperer, Jon Hilsenrath, has proclaimed his "common knowledge" meme for today's FOMC statement. Confirming that officials "aren’t at this point alarmed about the first quarter slowdown," and in fact stating they are confident of spending picking up due to consumer sentiment (which just fell)... which leaves them signalling no shift in policy stance - i.e. rate hikes are coming whether the economy can handle it or not...
Federal Reserve officials attributed the economy’s sharp first-quarter slowdown to transitory factors, in effect signaling an increase in short-term interest rates remains on the table for the months ahead although the timing has become more uncertain.
The Fed now needs time to make sure its expectation of a rebound proves correct after a spate of soft economic data. That means the chances of a rate increase by midyear have greatly diminished, a point underscored by the Fed’s statement released Wednesday at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting.
“Economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors,” the Fed said. The Fed also said that although growth and employment had slowed officials expected economic activity to return to return to a modest pace of growth and job market could continue to improve, “with appropriate policy accommodation.”
The gathering concluded a few hours after the Commerce Department reported the U.S. economy grew at a 0.2% annual rate in the in the first quarter. It was the worst performance in a year, pocked with evidence of a slowing trade sector and anemic business investment. The report also showed annual consumer price inflation slowed in the first quarter.
For now, the Fed isn’t signaling any shift in its policy stance. It repeated it would keep its benchmark short-term interest rate, the federal funds rate, pinned near zero, where it has been since December 2008. Officials in March opened the door to rate increases later this year, by removing from the policy statement assurances rates would stay low.
The policy statement said, as it did in March, that the central bank would raise rates when officials become reasonably confident that inflation is moving back up toward the Fed’s 2% objective and as long as the job market continues to improve.
Officials sought to acknowledge the recent economic downshift in their policy statement, while keeping their options open. The pace of job gains moderated, the Fed statement said, and measures of labor market slack were little changed. Business investment softened and exports declined.
The statement also said officials saw the risks to the outlook were balanced - an important sign that they aren’t at this point alarmed about the first quarter slowdown. Many officials believe that conditions are ripe for consumer spending to pick up in the months ahead, in part because employment, incomes and confidence have risen and falling gasoline prices have boosted household purchasing power.
The statement pointed to strong gains in inflation-adjusted household incomes and consumer sentiment, underscore this view.
Nobody dissented at the meeting. It was the fifth time in 10 meetings run by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen with no dissents.
* * *
Fed officials thought the 2014 slowdown was a temporary blip and in that case proved to be right. Economic growth picked up in the second and third quarters of last year... will 2015 be different?
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You succeded in the planned attack on Gold and Silver today Mr Yellen! And with any luck all of your friends will buy this dip and as the Dow moves higher, they will get more and mnore wealth at the expense of the poor!
Someday, the fister will become the fisted.
Fuck this woman. She has no idea what she is doing.
She approximates a French frog in all aspects and measures.
Fools on the Boob Tube are still pimping Munies for "tax free income."
What income, mofos?
I'm looking fwd to punching that horse in the mouth!
Hey, can still get 3% on long term hi-grade munis. If we go the route of Japan (sure looks it to me... higher taxes, print MOAR, larger goobermint expenditures on shovel ready shit to nowhere) 3% is gonna be a prize in a few years.
The risk to me (as in individual investor with no defined benefit pension) is that rates keep dropping and no income means spend principle ....
Just like all the retirees for years and years already.
If looks like rates gonna go up substantially, then "bids wanted in competition".
PS Talk about Perceptions Management, last night on the telly there was a men's deodorant ad. Showed the guys putting the stuff on. Hay had no underarm hair. Hmmmmm.
Also, today when doing some errands I was listening to "hate" radio (political nonsense talk shows) and by and large the conservatives are beating the holy hell out of the Establishment Republicans as traitors, pseudo-Democrats, etc.
Beginning to sound more like us Hedgies!
So stop complaining and do what the other retirees are doing, making minimum wage at Wal Mart (the ones without plumbing issues). My dad is 88 and he keeps calling me asking why he can't get a CD at his bank as he has done his whole life. No way to explain it to him other than to say the country is in the shitter.
Your good Dad is better not to know the fate of this shithole fraud. But yeah, I remember the 18% CD days of old.
Maybe the Baltimore muni's are on sale?Halleluyah!
Precisely, it's "Economic Terrorism" ~ http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/04/economic-terrorism.html
I'm beginning to wonder if everybody inside the Beltway has some serious Disassociative Disorder... some Significant Detachments from Reality.
Drinking Mexican Tap Water is More Reliable than Anybody in DC
Tequila es siempre mejor que el agua, patrón.
Si. Me gustan los gusanos mejores.
Hasta el fondo gringos.
Of course she does, its whatever the mega-banks want because that's who she works for.....
Right. Banks are loaded with reserves. Now, they can boost margins and draw in foreign cash with the slightest hike.
Woman? (Laughed brucicie jenner)
2 pieces of 1/4 inch thick corrugated cardboard, glued together will work, but should be water proofed with a paint on coating (if you cannot afford the paint, word has it there are free give away's in Baltimore) use that to weatherproof the outside surface. Use 4 pieces for the roof, same process for weatherproofing.
Try to get as close the the dirt edge of the underpass as you can as this is THE prime real estate for CB living, offering better protection than out in the middle...
These crazy fuckers may in fact try to raise rates, last one to the cardboard shop will have a really bad day don't be that one...
Don't think that's gonna protect people from the shitstorm coming, sorry...
(Better start thinking about adding solar & wifi some how...)
"Fuck this woman..."
I'll bet 70% of Greeks1 would love to, if it means a small handout for them.
[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-29/greek-deposits-now-lowest-2005-...
"Most significantly, even as tensions rise, polls show continued and overwhelming public support for a European solution: between "rupture" or "agreement", opinion polls consistently point to more than 70% support for the latter…"
Haus-Targaryen Fuck this woman. She has no idea what she is doing.
Fuck this man. She knows EXACTLY what she is doing.
FIFY :-)
But not in time. Shoulda happened years ago.
What I tell you Pool Shit you mook!
THIS IS JUST A TRIAL BALLOON. Saying that rates will go up will cause the lemmings on Wall Street to react a certain way. If they react negatively, then Mr. Yellen will know to lie low on a rate hike and keep Q.E. going as it is. If the economy shits the bed before the end of the year....then Q.E. will be increased.
This is just a probe to test the waters.....that is all.
I freelance over th? internet and earn about 80-85$ an hour. I was without a job for 7 months but last month my paycheck with big fat bonus was $15000 just working on my computer from my home for 5-6 hours. Here's what i have been doing... www.globe-report.com
Watta douche.....hehehehehe..........of course they aren't worried......THEYRE GONNA CRASH IT........
The FED is a joke.
But what they do to US is no joke.
"would raise rates when officials become reasonably confident that inflation is moving back up toward the Fed’s 2% objective"
The Fed is officially the BOJ, and we will get the same result.
If we do not END THE FED, the "Fed" will be the end of us.
END THE MOTHERFUCKING CRIMINAL SCAM KNOWN AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE.
Nice sentiment, but the reality is that... As long as there is a USA, there will be a Fed.
Even after the Global Monetary Reset, which they will actively be a part of and dictate the direction and pace toward the Controlled Reset.
Given the 'Merican apathy all around us, there will be no credible force to "Fight the Fed". Anyone who believes otherwise, has been taking too many Hopium pills.
"and in fact stating they are confident of spending picking up due to consumer sentiment"
You can't buy a damn thing with sentiment.
I nominate Hilsenrat as the first patient to receive a human head transplant from that whacko Italian doctor...
First, he needs to see the proctologist to remove his head from ass.
Here we go again
i don't think that means what you think it means [/inigo montoya impersonation]
allow me to translate hilsenrath for you: btfd bitchez, yeah!
only question is, how long until hilsenrath is bernanke's trading assistant at citidel/PIMCO (merger coming soon to a theatre near you)
“Consumer debt is the obtaining of something you cannot afford, with money that is not yours, in exchange for a promise to repay in a future that does not belong to you.”-E.S. Solheim
Ah thanks Eric, but you are preaching to the choir. We've known that for years. I gave ya an up arrow just for enthusiasm.
Good to know not all 'traders' are Pinko Fascist Commie Opportunists. Keep the Faith, Dr Eric Gold. ...and welcome to the 'Sovereign' Club!
Or, in less than 608 words: "We have painted ourselves in a corner, the economy is tanking but we have to raise rates so that later on we can lower them and appear to be in control and on top of thngs"
This, exactly. They HAVE to raise rates, and soon, at least a little. Otherwise, they can't "do" anything when shit gets REALLY bad.
Politically, front running the crises they create with counterfeit cash.
If they pop Housing Bubble 2.0 first they can extend the stcok market game a little longer I think. Dramatically lowering fixed RE costs, especially for those in metro areas, would be akin to a drmatic wage increase for consumers. Assuming it is spent, and I'm not sold on the whole of those who would benefit putting it into savings, then it could make PE ratios for some companies look a little less insane. It should at least slow the carnage in retail.
Do it faggots.
Oh, they'll do it all right,
for a piss ant .25%. How many decades until normality? Will any of us live to see it?
Decades, nah.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/us-debt-graph-2020.jpg
I call bullshit. One good 1/4 point raise and the market cramps up with terminal diarrhea and Obama starts whining and pukes up blood.
Fate the Magnificent
"Push the Button, Max"
More jaw boning to fake out the weak and feeble minded. Insiders know there ain't no rate hike coming for years. the housing market is already slowing down in 95.68% of the country and the Chinese are preparing for a brutish recession.
The housing amrket has to not just slow down, but reverse. Fixed RE costs are crushing consumers. With most of the bad RE off the Big 4 banks balance sheets, the FED can allow a correction. The FED actually NEEDS a correction...
"When things get really bad, you have to lie"
"When things get really bad, you have to lie" ==> that sounds so harsh!
How about "When things get really bad, you have to speak rhetorically."
Or better yet, "When things get really bad, you have to draw the line between fact and outright fabrication in a different place than you might under normal conditions."
We don't want to hurt Our Leadership's tender feelings, much less appear harsh or unreasonable, right?
That actually made me say "Oh yeah, I forgot". They lie, because they have to.
The FED continues to state that any hikes are "data dependent". Here's all you need to know from todays minutes:
"The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term".
Now let me ask you, do you really think the jobs situation is going to improve between now and then? From my vantage point, the answer is a resounding NO.
No rate hike in the near future. If anything, we are priming the pump for QE 4+~ and beyond. The dollar will crash along with other fiat currencies of the world, and overvaluded bubble of a market will go with it. Gold will reign supreme as the world scrambles to regain the lost faith in it's currencies. Expect some kind or return to the Bretton Woods system with gold backing at least a portion of the worlds money... likely the SDR. Those who have been paying attention know this already. Those who have not will say this is crazy talk. Which one are you???
For each one of us there are, probably, 1000 who don't have a clue. Around here it's probably less. When the time comes, they will beg, borrow or steal (that's already happening here) from you, if they get the chance.
Now let me ask you, do you really think the jobs situation is going to improve between now and then? From my vantage point, the answer is a resounding NO.
You're vantage point is not their vantage point. The manipulasted numbers, whicj never report the truly under employed, will indeed be used to justify hikes.
Nothing but more Jewboning, get back to work GOY!
I AM OZ! WHO ARE YOU?
I be de exterminator, who's gonna check behind that curtain for creepy crawlies;)
THe FeD has gOne FuLL-ReTARd.
'No seriously, we're still credible....rate hikes comin on schedule!'
Yea right.
Seen this before, just jawboning markets to avoid super-bubble and stem 'recession' panic, any '15 hike would likely be just headroom for further easing.
To whom it may concern, I would like to bring a post pre fed speak.
harleydtshark • Mar 11, 2015 12:55 PM Flag
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Sorry my mistake gold down $12.50
Look for yourself
This person had advance knowledge of the FEDS remarks. Just look at the timing of his post.
Quiet crickets.
hIlsenrath - an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill.
nice.
yes when I contemplate what the world may look like given a bad-case scenario (about a 33% likelihood imo)...the quote that comes to mind is: the horror, the horror, the horror. in a worst case scenario were too busy digging for grubs to reflect on the sitch
This doesn't mean? We get to hang on numbers biting our nails? Hope they're stuffed? Lol through to Christmas BABY!
they will raise...probably 2 times up to .5% by the end of the year. they have too, in order to keep the pretense that the conomy is growing, and secondly so that they can lower inthe future.
look at the chart from 2004 to 2007 of fed funds rate, they raised and raised and raised until the curve inverted right into the beginning of the recession (mid 2007, when the subprimers started to collapse). the fed only thinks it knows what is happening and wants you to think so too.
they will raise, but q2 gdp will suck too, and earnings will continue to decline....25bps will just be the frosting on the cake
Quack Quack Quack, Nothing but a bunch of Quacks....These SOB's have milked the puny .25 basis point threat for +3.5 effing years now. The whole staged drama is total B.S. as are these incessant bleating sessions. All designed to continue their manipulations who in the hell thinks a puny rate hike is going to do anything???? Except maybe blow up the derivatives markets and crash what remains of the economy when their creaking financial edifice goes smashdown.
May they BURN IN HELL!
They've stated/called for rate hikes for years, total BS, we're going nowhere, just like yesterday.
Yeah, rate hikes are coming. 1 basis point per meeting over the next 100 meetings, starting in 6 months.
Let the free money party rage!!! New highs by end of week!
Higher rates are just around the corner.
This road has no corners, it then dissappears into the horizon.
committees make slow, poor decisions based on old data in a consensus format that by definition cannot be correct.
Too funny. They can see that that the dollar is about to do its swan dive into a pool of acid, after rising into the giddy heights of self-destruction, but have absolutely no clout left whatsoever to do anything about it. The noose of paradox has them completely by the throat now, and are damned if they do, and damned if they don't. It's just that, tragically, printing money on a hamster wheel buys just a little bit more time than a head shot to the brain stem of interest rates. The bond market is vastly larger than the equities merry-go-round.
They can never raise rates. If they do they will cause hyperinflation. They know this
The markets still don't beleive the Fed will raise rates -- if they did, they would be tanking. In fact, the dollar weakness has been in anticipation of a dovish announcement. Instead, it was more hawkish than expected. I take this as a sign that the algos have no idea how to play this!
Traits of a Psychopath -
1. Unwilling to accept responsibility, or irresponsible
2. Superficial charm
3. Grandiose sense of self-worth
4. Never wrong about anything
5. Liars
None of these people are psychologically tested.
Conclusion: believe them assuming the risk of loss.
rate hikes are coming whether the economy can handle it or not...
Or stated a different way; the competiton for reserve currency status
has started and the FEDs don't give a (!), they "need" to win!
Of course, you realize this means that everyone on the FED
side of that rope will be forced to follow and raise rates,
... or even beat the FED to it... ;)
I'm so sick of this repeated bullshit about rate hikes. They cannot raise rates or they can't pay the interest on the national debt. It's all a damned charade, yet seemingly intelligent people (ie, with blue-blood degrees from asshat academy) keep believing in this horse shit.
And we wonder how guys like Jim Jones or Hitler rise to power? I don't wonder. Just look around you. It's the blind leading the blind.
The US is toast. It's just a matter of time before the real story gets out. Keep stacking my friends.
Maybe the Fed realizes that they screwed up royally... OR... maybe the plan is to increase the number of people in poverty after subjecting them to debt servitude.
We will find that when the tide goes out, the banks own everything.
They own our money that we deposit with them. That is now the law.
They own all stock because the ownership is held by Cede and Company and we who hold shares are only beneficiaries of the shares, not owners. Cede is owned by the banks.
The banks own our tax receipts.
... and the banks own the politicians. Although, that could change if they developed some guts.
They'll probably hike rates a miniscule amount and do QE4 without announcing it.
Keep this descent slow and steady, that is their goal.
Ha ha ha ha lolo. laughing my azz off.
The FED can't afford to raise shit, or allow rates to rise.
With the recently approved Smoke and Mirrors Republican Budget Proposal out the door, the pins are all set up and all thats needed is the ball to be rolled.
With rates around 2%, the Interest on the National Debt is 11% of tax revenues. "They" can't afford to let that go any higher or the whole Ponzi Scheme starts to fold.
Long Term Average is 6%, that's over a Trillion dollars in Interest Only. And each year of deficit just adds to the pain. They'll let rates go up the same time they release the balloon and TSHTF.
I remember when rates went double digits. That happens today and there is no US Dollar because we can't afford TWO TRILLION dollars in interest per year.
It's Europe's turn and Japan is perma IC.