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US Economy Grinds To A Halt, Again: Q1 GDP Tumbles Below Expectations, Rises Paltry 0.2%
And so the Atlanta Fed, whose "shocking" Q1 GDP prediction Zero Hedge first laid out nearly 2 months ago, with its Q1 GDP 0.1% forecast was spot on. Moments ago the BEA reported that Q1 GDP was far worse than almost everyone had expected, and tumbled from a 2.2% annualized growth rate at the end of 2014 to just 0.2%, in a rerun of last year when it too "snowed" in the winter. This was well below the Wall Street consensus of a print above 1.0%.
In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt.
Only this time it wasn't the snow, as the main reason for the plunge in economic growth was not only personal consumption which was cut by more than 50% from last quarter, tumbling to just 1.31%, but fixed investment, i.e., CapEx, which subtracting 0.40% from the bottom line GDP number, was the lowest print since 2009!
The fact that trade also subtracted a whopping 1.25% from the final number shows that while one can blame the weather for anything, the reality is that in the start of the year global trade did indeed grind to a halt, a picture which is only getting worse with every passing day.
The only good news: the massive inventory build, the largest since 2010, boosted GDP by nearly 3.0%. Without this epic stockpiling of non-farm inventory which will have to be liquidated at some point (and at a very low price) Q1 GDP would have been -2.5%.
Here is the full breakdown of the GDP number:
And a historical breakdown showing that the Q1 "snow in the winter" curse is alive and well.
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It's the weather, stupid......oh wait...
No, It's just the stupid.
Atlanta Fed "GDP now" nailed it!
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.aspx
US Economy Grinds To A Halt
Mission Accomplished!
Always something, just face it we are not in a recovery
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-
Moar QE Time.
If GDP had printed at +3.2% would you have believed it?
Then why do you believe this number?
This is all to push Fed interest rate increases out further on the calendar. GDP numbers are meaningless drivel and are a "policy tool" as Doc Engali often says, just like the S&P 500 level is a policy tool.
No problema as long as they use unlimited paper to sell VIX down to zilch
GDP..(e)Gregious Dumbf’r Phantasm
It's true - winter was completely unpredicted this year. Who new we would have a winter?
That's what they're reporting...so what's the real number?
-5.0%, -10.0%?
There is no real number.
I tend to agree.
I'm having trouble seeing how anyone other than the dock workers are stockpiling inventory. We've been having delays of over a month on both imports and exports on the West Coast. They got so bad at one point that we re-routed to the East Coast. This is for perishables, so delays mean we take the loss.
You nailed that one, nodebt...
There is no confidence in this number whatsoever. All they do is keep adding items to the GDP calculation to try and prop it up. Just imagine what the numbers for the past year would have looked like if they took out the expenditures on health insurance (Obamacare). I can't wait until the revised number comes out and heads even lower.
And that is with Hookers and Blow! LOL
We have been on the outskirts of an Eddy for a long while and while they keep trying to stop the flow from going into the middle and flowing down the plug hole............the only thing that would work is no taxes.
Large Debt is the real holdback on any economy.
So simple even an economist (or a Fed Chairman) could get it?
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/04/so-simple-even-economist-or-fed-can-get.html
They should start including income from panhandling in GDP figures., The new growth industry.
Mission Accomplished!
Right! Now if we can just get all the gold and silver out of the country, trash all industry, crash the currency, leave these pathetic stupid Americans with nothing we can fly to our ivory towers in the Fuij Islands and live happily thereafter.That was suppose to be a secret.
GROWTH
HAS
BEEN
AWOL
FOR
A
LONG
TIME
TAX
Stands for
TAX
AGAINST
XPANSION
STAGNIFICATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So some dolt from Barclays (? or wherever) on CNBS said that their forecast of +1.8% was right in line with what was printed at +0.2%.
Everybody shook their heads; yah yah yah yah yah
Does anybody but me see what happened?
Santelli is a God. He's a Bond Guy. That's Why.
"Santelli is a God. He's a Bond Guy. That's Why."
That's the funniest crap I have heard today! Santelli is a hysterical niwit. Even a broken clock is right twice a day...............which is more often than Santelli.
I think Santelli is pissed because the Fed refuses to let the clock run wthout them pushing all of the hands.
Santelli is a hysterical niwit.
Which is why I joined the Joe Kernen cult instead.
What? No Andrew Ross Sorkin fans around here? That's hard to believe.
Becky Quicky in the tub with Grandfather Buffett.
Maria Big Ass Worn Loose Badonkadonk Caboose Bartiromo going down on Jeff Immelt en route to Basel at 30,000 feet.
You can't trust these (bad) numbers
dont worry, they'll be revised down to negative....
Bad numbers happen to good economies.
Krugmainiam Ecoonomics
The big asset swap between GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK) and Novartis ($NVS) may have given each company just what it wanted, but the deal continues to play out poorly for workers, with GSK planning to close its Pittsburgh office where it has about 275 employees working for its consumer health unit.
http://www.fiercepharma.com/tags/layoffs-0
Closing down RTP R&D as well, and moving them up to Philly. Nice campus down here.
So much $$ in big pharma now that M&A is the easiest way to get ahead. Find company with pipeline, buy company with cash from Blockbuster drugs, profit.
Same thing Pfizer did with Wyeth.
GSK and Novartis was more like a swap, but M&A rules the day almost everywhere now.
pods
M&A's are a great way for Big Corp to:1) cut jobs, and 2) amend pension plans to cut benefits.
very bullish for CEOs and shareholders!
not so much for workers getting "restructured"
Arent these mergers of giants anti-competitive or something?
TPTB creating more monopolies and cartels and TBTF companies like there is no tomorrow... Maybe there is no tomorrow.
It was a sad day when Wyeth got bought up by Pfizer. From the inside Wyeth was a great company targeting important diseases, not developing boner pills.
most of this is O'care. It was supposed to re-collateralize the insurance companies with 30 million new bodies paying in-however the costs have gutted out other, better quality collateral through out the country, while there stillare -surprise surprise!!-30 million outside the system...
what do they do next? Prolly sit on their thumbs and continue to pleasure themselves in NYC and DC while the country starts to burn.
Nero Obama
ALL of this is PINKO COMMIE FASCISM, of which OBOZO-Care is but a part....
BIG CONTRIBUTOR- healthcare is a blckhole siphoning money right off the top(paycheck) and sucking the last dolla at the bottom if one actually uses their heathcare insurance. second biggest fraud after the FED itself...
It's nice to see Tiny Tim up and walking, but the side effects of the medication were brutal.
Dude! That's slick.
Reminds me of the time I was walking along 48th Street in NYC and some guy was leading another one collared on a leash with a gimp mask, barefoot, wearing nothing else but a thong.
Kinda like our overseers and the "news"
NYT: "All the news that Fits"
The monkey looks a little disgruntled. Could it be where the elite is putting the stick?
Excellent! Gives further menaing to the Middle Class private sector being Monkeyhammered by the Fed's + Barry's economic policies.
LOL !
obama and his handlers in full display of the fruit of their efforts....
indeed misson accomplished....
GDP MUST be maintained at 5% for the next decade to pay off the debt and keep SS and all the Bread & Circus BIGov "programs" solvent.
Or the "natives" go hungry and...it's just Liberal NAZISM At Work: http://wp.me/p2kmGE-h4
We are in recession period
guess you aren't running a silicon valley zero revenue billion dollar company, a washington lobbyists, a scam Wall Street HFT operator or money printer.
How true. Anyone with any sense can see that.
20k Dow here we come!
The spin is out, "it was the strong dollar stupid."
This can only mean one thing: more share buybacks
Thanks for posting that for me. We're at 90% of profits being used for buybacks now. When we hit 110%, look out!
we need 900%...
Right along with mergers & acquisitions.
What we really need are murders and executions. A la Patrick Bateman.
Here come the excuses
How bad is the non bullshit number?
-7%, adjusted for the actual rate of inflation for 2015 Q1 per ShadowStats.
I felt better when my question was rhetorical. -7% ouch.
That sounds a lot more realistic to me.
prepare for a full day of steve liesman telling the sheeple how GDP is an out-of-date statistic that is no longer relevant ... all-the-whilte leaving out that it was recalibrated UP to include defense spending a year + ago. even adding steriods (defense spending) to the steriods (QE) we still are on the borderline of a negative print.
#recovery
His suit today looks exactly like the one I bought in 1974. Seriously.
I'm impressed.
(rolling eyes)
prepare for a full day of steve liesman
Oh joy.
It's a smidgen of growth.
Where there's a Smidgen, there's Hope
maniacal laughter
surrounded by idiots
Recovery is here, just as Hussein told us. The riots should help the future GDP!
Wouldn't be suprised if this number ultimately gets revised to a negative. If it wasn't for the massive boom in intellectual property this number would be negative already.
I think it's clear the formula we use is outdated and needs to be further adjusted to capture the growth we all know is occuring. \s
Perhaps like intagables? Oh wait, we did that! Next!
If only we gave more money to those sitting on their ass and doing nothing
Ms. Pelosi? Is that you?
Like the banks and big multinational corps? I agree.
But isn't everything awesome?
https://twitter.com/FGoria/status/593381780738179073/photo/1
Oh T Boone says oil going higher not demand right Wow Capx
but but bullshit bartiromo is "breathless" about apple's last qauarter. ishit for everyone, after all who really needs a job with QE foreva. . .
The market knew EXACTLY what was coming.... MORE QE!!!!
Here's the day right here: Market opens down big. It trends down sharply into lunch. Fed is dovish for no at 2. It regains that and more. Haha.
Sounds like you have seen this movie a few times. I like the part at the end where the market goes parabolic at 15 minutes before the close. Classic.
Stocks should sky rocket on this news! Collapse right around the corner!
What's the ticker symbol for the "economy" you're talking about - is it like Twitter?
L M Fuckin' A O
When big corporations ship jobs from the U.S. to cheap overseas labor, eventually people in the U.S. are going to run out of money to buy the big corporations' stuff.
You just figured that out ?! Ross Perot called that the great sucking sound back 1992, 22 years ago. Note when he says US healthcare is most expensive component to 'build a car'. Look at poppy bush laughing too.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkgx1C_S6ls
I remember watching that debate when I was 18. I even voted for Perot. I guess he had too much common sense to be elected.
Roll on the Atlanta Fed Q2 forecast.
Should be BULLISH for stocks...more QE and bigger government cronyism.
Shit contracted by 5% if you take out that communist monster "Obamacare" shit.
Spot on and consider borrowing and debt and its worse
Come on, can't they manufacture a 'good' number for us? What the heck are we paying them for??
it's official - we suck! U.S.A! U.S.A!
Won't be needing any extra oil then.
We need a fed gov mandate ... "borrow and buy shit, or pay a tax/fine/penalty to the IRS."
That will save us!
Don't worry they're working on that. Google "negative interest rates" and replace IRS with "banksters."
Good luck fuck nuts. When you disappear, new technology will emerge without a IPO Checklist.
Welcome to your fallen world.
Q: What time is it when the economy is stagnant, real unemployment is high, equities in a huge bubble, and rates have only one direction to go?
A: It is a great time to buy a house.
because they never gone down in value...just ask any realtor
you typo'd the 'R'. It's a great time to buy a horse
I call bullshit on this number. How in the world with 50 million on food stamps and 93 million not in the work force, can the GDP (Government Dependent Parasites) be only .2%?
I must be missing something!
SO MOAR THEN? shocker.
Obama- if you haven't heard we ain't in the economy saving business. We're in the economy killing business. And cousin, business is a boomin!
If more gay wedding cakes and gay wedding flowers are forced to be delivered, GDP would skyrocket.
Watch the motherfuckers lose everything. They will probably use their own nail gun to cover the tracks. Just look into the insurance policy. Don't give them a dime.
Economy grew over the last two years because of Barry-care.
So "line up and die" overpriced, yet free healthcare is the economic engine of the US.
Any MOAR riots to create Barry to distract from the fuckup job you have done to the economy? You fucking asshole!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt."
But, but, the stock market is a discounting mechanism. Looking back at how the SP500 has done over the last month, I would suggest (snicker) that in 5 months we will see an economy on VIAGRA for exactly one month.
Cloudy skys can have an effect, that's probably what is was.
Converse is true in SoCal.
so let me understand, cloudy skys, lower GDP, but socal has clear skys so their economy is to the moon.
And now I think I know
What you tried to say to me
How you suffered for your sanity
How you tried to set them free
They would not listen
Don McLean - Starry Starry Night Lyrics | MetroLyricsThey're not listening still
Perhaps they never will
so can we now stop saying the 'market' is a Leading Indicator, and take it out of LEI along with 'sentiment'....these are now and have been at best a near term lagging indicator...."i feel great, my last quarter 401k statement was good"
strong dollar....such old news, high paid people are 'surprised'???? highest % gain in over 20 years vs currecny basket, and 'whocuddaknowd'?
You know the economy is shit when they can't even spin the numbers to look good.
Why are we not counting the drug sales and prostitutes.
All defense/war stocks are up.
So is more war the answer?
We need to invade some more folks?
That CONSENSUS chart is trying to tell us something !!! Perhaps the collective thinking is not honest.
Ah, feel the crushing weight of all the folks crushed under the weight of ZIRP, starved of income on savings/bond portfolios for almost 7 years. Feel the power of increasing rules and regulations, crushing costs of healthcare and rent/home prices that keep rising faster than wages by central bank design. Oh, that inflation feels so good! If college only cost $200,000 per year, everything would be great!
Nice job central planners. TIme to do some more.
Pensions to be cut in half soon.
Oh my!!!
Don't even get me started. Imagine being the poor guy running a pension plan who assumed that bonds would return 4-6% a year. There was no model that EVER assumed interest rates could stay at ZERO for 7 years and counting. The underfunding is a disaster and yet another UNINTENDED consequence of these policies few are focusing on at this point. The negative costs of ZIRP and QE are multiplying as the years go by and the benefits are few at this point.
Don't worry though, there will be MOAR. The people running central banks were all classmates and their books have to be right, they just have to be, despite what real world experience is screaming.
Just wait until equities have 75+% shaved off...
Zeroes need to stock up on gold and silver so they'll be ideally positioned for the next time precious metals gap down even further.
Bob pissing yourself lately .
If I had a stagnating economy, it would look like this one.
So S&P up +50 today then.
Only green from here.
Absolutely. Takes an interest rate increase off the table for another few years, minimum.
well the FED is buying oil futures...that should bring us out
All the rags seem to be pushing consumer spending, reuters and NYT blaming precipitation and Bloomberg noting that it's '70% of the economy.' If '70% of the economy' grew at a greater rate than print, then clearly something is very wrong with the other 30%. Further, if the weather meme doesn't pan out for Q2 and consumer spending is depressed for other reasons...
This isn't just a below expectations print.
Cautious is back, buy stawks.
http://www.shadowstats.com/commentaries
No. 714: March Durable Goods Orders, Median Household Income, New- and Existing-HomeSales April, 24th, 2015
• Both Nominal and Real First-Quarter 2015 GDP Face Contraction, But Headline Downturn May Await the First Revision• Consensus Forecasts Never Catch Economic Downturns, Yet the Consensus Outlook Is Weighted into the Initial GDP Estimate
• Real Durable Goods Orders Confirmed Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Signaling a Second-Quarter GDP Decline and Formal Recession
• Household Income Declined Sharply in March
• Existing-Home Sales Fell at Annualized 7.2% (-7.2%) Pace in First-Quarter 2015
• Unstable Plunge in New-Home Sales Data Amidst Continued and Protracted Stagnation
OK, so crash already. I've been prepping for nearly six years and I'm fucking ready.
Wait, what? You mean I should enjoy being ass-raped every single day by sales tax, gas prices (plus tax) that are continually manipulated higher despite there being massive oversupply, property taxes, fees, higher prices (actually paid $2.22 for a dozen large eggs at Wal-Mart the other day; same dozen were $1.44 at Aldi's. Anyone notice that Wal-Mart hasn't advertised "lower prices" in more than two years?), more regulations, a 1040 that's impossible to decipher without the help of an accountant, insurance fees, worker's comp payments, and, all of the other impediments to running (ruining) a business?
There's never been a better time to (choose one) buy a house, start a business, shoot yourself in the head twice with a nail gun.
What time does Obama appear on TV to tout how awesome the American economy is doing due soley to his personal efforts? Should be any time now...
Annualizing 1/2 a trillion trade imbalance. They send us products, we mint more pictures of dead presidents to keep them happy.
What I want to know is the exchange rate for my FRN to the new currency. Whether it's the Amero, GWO credit unit, SDR note or whatever they bring in to replace the dollar. Is the rate going to kill my pillow case full of American fiat or will there be parity. My PMs will still be here but, what about the cash I keep on hand? After the economic collapse they're going to bring out the digital credits, that is going to happen. The. 01% are stacking pm and cash. Is it going to be a 1:1 or are they stocking the hell out of fiat because the dollar will be reduced severely. From billionaire to millionaire over a long weekend and bank holiday. The other 99.9 are fucked either way. After the Mad Max period and the survivors are left to deal with, what happens then?
1:1 will never happen (because there would be no point in bringing out a new currency). If you want to know how many new dollars you'll get for your old FRNs, I think a good estimate can be achieved by taking 1 and dividing it by infinity.
LOL.... Supp wit you gangsta's always thinkin the worst... Just think the S&P will breach 3K and it shall.
Without the $122B inventory build, GDP would have been -2.6%.Fuck the lying FED. Next the IMF will step in with SDR's. The system wil still collapse . It is slowly spiraling out of control. The great reset commith.