This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

US Economy Grinds To A Halt, Again: Q1 GDP Tumbles Below Expectations, Rises Paltry 0.2%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the Atlanta Fed, whose "shocking" Q1 GDP prediction Zero Hedge first laid out nearly 2 months ago, with its Q1 GDP 0.1% forecast was spot on. Moments ago the BEA reported that Q1 GDP was far worse than almost everyone had expected, and tumbled from a 2.2% annualized growth rate at the end of 2014 to just 0.2%, in a rerun of last year when it too "snowed" in the winter.  This was well below the Wall Street consensus of a print above 1.0%.

In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt.

Only this time it wasn't the snow, as the main reason for the plunge in economic growth was not only personal consumption which was cut by more than 50% from last quarter, tumbling to just 1.31%, but fixed investment, i.e., CapEx, which subtracting 0.40% from the bottom line GDP number, was the lowest print since 2009!

 

The fact that trade also subtracted a whopping 1.25% from the final number shows that while one can blame the weather for anything, the reality is that in the start of the year global trade did indeed grind to a halt, a picture which is only getting worse with every passing day.

The only good news: the massive inventory build, the largest since 2010, boosted GDP by nearly 3.0%. Without this epic stockpiling of non-farm inventory which will have to be liquidated at some point (and at a very low price) Q1 GDP would have been -2.5%.

Here is the full breakdown of the GDP number:

 

And a historical breakdown showing that the Q1 "snow in the winter" curse is alive and well.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:43 | 6042126 timeless21
timeless21's picture

It's the weather, stupid......oh wait...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:46 | 6042136 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No, It's just the stupid.

Atlanta Fed "GDP now" nailed it!

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.aspx

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:47 | 6042153 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

US Economy Grinds To A Halt

 

Mission Accomplished!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042160 flacon
flacon's picture
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:52 | 6042187 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Always something, just face it we are not in a recovery

Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

-

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:55 | 6042200 clooney_art
clooney_art's picture

Moar QE Time.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:07 | 6042244 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If GDP had printed at +3.2% would you have believed it?

Then why do you believe this number?

This is all to push Fed interest rate increases out further on the calendar.  GDP numbers are meaningless drivel and are a "policy tool" as Doc Engali often says, just like the S&P 500 level is a policy tool.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:19 | 6042282 Manthong
Manthong's picture

No problema as long as they use unlimited paper to sell VIX down to zilch

 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:49 | 6042437 Manthong
Manthong's picture

GDP..(e)Gregious  Dumbf’r Phantasm

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:31 | 6042613 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

It's true - winter was completely unpredicted this year. Who new we would have a winter?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:24 | 6042298 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

That's what they're reporting...so what's the real number?

-5.0%, -10.0%?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:31 | 6042338 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

There is no real number.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:51 | 6042723 Lone_Star
Lone_Star's picture

I tend to agree.

I'm having trouble seeing how anyone other than the dock workers are stockpiling inventory. We've been having delays of over a month on both imports and exports on the West Coast. They got so bad at one point that we re-routed to the East Coast. This is for perishables, so delays mean we take the loss.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:45 | 6042417 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

You nailed that one, nodebt...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:41 | 6042671 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

There is no confidence in this number whatsoever. All they do is keep adding items to the GDP calculation to try and prop it up. Just imagine what the numbers for the past year would have looked like if they took out the expenditures on health insurance (Obamacare). I can't wait until the revised number comes out and heads even lower.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:13 | 6042265 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

And that is with Hookers and Blow! LOL

 

We have been on the outskirts of an Eddy for a long while and while they keep trying to stop the flow from going into the middle and flowing down the plug hole............the only thing that would work is no taxes.

 

Large Debt is the real holdback on any economy.

 

 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:18 | 6042280 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

So simple even an economist (or a Fed Chairman) could get it?

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/04/so-simple-even-economist-or-fed-can-get.html

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:33 | 6042628 New Kid
New Kid's picture

They should start including income from panhandling in GDP figures., The new growth industry.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:06 | 6042245 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Mission Accomplished!

Right! Now if we can just get all the gold and silver out of the country, trash all industry, crash the currency, leave these pathetic stupid Americans with nothing we can fly to our ivory towers in the Fuij Islands and live happily thereafter. 
Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:12 | 6042262 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

That was suppose to be a secret.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:34 | 6042352 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

GROWTH

HAS

BEEN

AWOL

FOR

A

LONG

TIME

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:40 | 6042385 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

TAX

Stands for

 

TAX

AGAINST

XPANSION

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:43 | 6042399 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

STAGNIFICATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:45 | 6042138 knukles
knukles's picture

So some dolt from Barclays (? or wherever) on CNBS said that their forecast of +1.8% was right in line with what was printed at +0.2%.
Everybody shook their heads; yah yah yah yah yah
Does anybody but me see what happened?
Santelli is a God.  He's a Bond Guy.  That's Why.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042163 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

"Santelli is a God.  He's a Bond Guy.  That's Why."

That's the funniest crap I have heard today! Santelli is a hysterical niwit. Even a broken clock is right twice a day...............which is more often than Santelli.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:02 | 6042203 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I think Santelli is pissed because the Fed refuses to let the clock run wthout them pushing all of the hands. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:59 | 6042215 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Santelli is a hysterical niwit.

 

Which is why I joined the Joe Kernen cult instead.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:16 | 6042272 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

What?  No Andrew Ross Sorkin fans around here?  That's hard to believe.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:52 | 6042733 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Becky Quicky in the tub with Grandfather Buffett.

Maria Big Ass Worn Loose Badonkadonk Caboose Bartiromo going down on Jeff Immelt en route to Basel at 30,000 feet.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:45 | 6042141 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

You can't trust these (bad) numbers

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:47 | 6042148 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

dont worry, they'll be revised down to negative....

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:47 | 6042152 knukles
knukles's picture

Bad numbers happen to good economies.
Krugmainiam Ecoonomics

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:14 | 6042266 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture
GSK closing Pittsburgh office, putting 275 jobs at risk

 

The big asset swap between GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK) and Novartis ($NVS) may have given each company just what it wanted, but the deal continues to play out poorly for workers, with GSK planning to close its Pittsburgh office where it has about 275 employees working for its consumer health unit.

 

http://www.fiercepharma.com/tags/layoffs-0

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:37 | 6042367 pods
pods's picture

Closing down RTP R&D as well, and moving them up to Philly.  Nice campus down here.

So much $$ in big pharma now that M&A is the easiest way to get ahead.  Find company with pipeline, buy company with cash from Blockbuster drugs, profit.

Same thing Pfizer did with Wyeth.  

GSK and Novartis was more like a swap, but M&A rules the day almost everywhere now.

pods

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:51 | 6042441 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

M&A's are a great way for Big Corp to:1) cut jobs, and 2) amend pension plans to cut benefits.

 

very bullish for CEOs and shareholders!

 

not so much for workers getting "restructured"

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:54 | 6042465 New Kid
New Kid's picture

Arent these mergers of giants anti-competitive or something?

TPTB creating more monopolies and cartels and TBTF companies like there is no tomorrow... Maybe there is no tomorrow.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:04 | 6042517 Hyjinx
Hyjinx's picture

It was a sad day when Wyeth got bought up by Pfizer.  From the inside Wyeth was a great company targeting important diseases, not developing boner pills.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:50 | 6042176 doctor10
doctor10's picture

most of this is O'care.  It was supposed to re-collateralize the insurance companies with 30 million new bodies paying in-however the costs have gutted out other, better quality collateral through out the country, while there stillare -surprise surprise!!-30 million outside the system...

 

what do they do next? Prolly sit on their thumbs and continue to pleasure themselves in NYC and DC while the country starts to burn.

 

Nero Obama

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:09 | 6042250 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

ALL of this is PINKO COMMIE FASCISM, of which OBOZO-Care is but a part....

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:09 | 6042251 new game
new game's picture

BIG CONTRIBUTOR- healthcare is a blckhole siphoning money right off the top(paycheck) and sucking the last dolla at the bottom if one actually uses their heathcare insurance. second biggest fraud after the FED itself...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:56 | 6042205 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:00 | 6042225 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

It's nice to see Tiny Tim up and walking, but the side effects of the medication were brutal.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:06 | 6042237 knukles
knukles's picture

Dude!  That's slick.
Reminds me of the time I was walking along 48th Street in NYC and some guy was leading another one collared on a leash with a gimp mask, barefoot, wearing nothing else but a thong.
                        Kinda like our overseers and the "news"
                          NYT: "All the news that Fits"

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:14 | 6042267 gmak
gmak's picture

The monkey looks a little disgruntled. Could it be where the elite is putting the stick?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:16 | 6042273 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Excellent! Gives further menaing to the Middle Class private sector being Monkeyhammered by the Fed's + Barry's economic policies.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:44 | 6042407 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

LOL !

 

obama and his handlers in full display of the fruit of their efforts....

indeed misson accomplished....

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 12:01 | 6043018 Firepower
Firepower's picture

GDP MUST be maintained at 5% for the next decade to pay off the debt and keep SS and all the Bread & Circus BIGov "programs" solvent.

 

Or the "natives" go hungry and...it's just Liberal NAZISM At Work: http://wp.me/p2kmGE-h4

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:44 | 6042130 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

We are in recession period

 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:39 | 6042375 venturen
venturen's picture

guess you aren't running a silicon valley zero revenue billion dollar company, a washington lobbyists, a scam Wall Street HFT operator or money printer. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:44 | 6042683 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

How true. Anyone with any sense can see that.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:44 | 6042131 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

20k Dow here we come!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:44 | 6042134 autofixer
autofixer's picture

The spin is out, "it was the strong dollar stupid." 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:45 | 6042139 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

This can only mean one thing: more share buybacks

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042171 duo
duo's picture

Thanks for posting that for me.  We're at 90% of profits being used for buybacks now.  When we hit 110%, look out!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:04 | 6042235 kowalli
kowalli's picture

we need 900%...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042172 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Right along with mergers & acquisitions.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:22 | 6042290 Moustache Rides
Moustache Rides's picture

What we really need are murders and executions.  A la Patrick Bateman.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:45 | 6042140 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Here come the excuses

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:46 | 6042142 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

How bad is the non bullshit number? 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:54 | 6042197 Kickaha
Kickaha's picture

-7%, adjusted for the actual rate of inflation for 2015 Q1 per ShadowStats.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:59 | 6042221 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I felt better when my question was rhetorical.  -7% ouch. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:46 | 6042693 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

That sounds a lot more realistic to me.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:46 | 6042143 aliki
aliki's picture

prepare for a full day of steve liesman telling the sheeple how GDP is an out-of-date statistic that is no longer relevant ... all-the-whilte leaving out that it was recalibrated UP to include defense spending a year + ago. even adding steriods (defense spending) to the steriods (QE) we still are on the borderline of a negative print.

#recovery

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042166 knukles
knukles's picture

His suit today looks exactly like the one I bought in 1974.  Seriously. 
I'm impressed.
(rolling eyes)

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:31 | 6042337 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

prepare for a full day of steve liesman

 

Oh joy.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:46 | 6042144 Little Boomer
Little Boomer's picture

It's a smidgen of growth.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:50 | 6042179 knukles
knukles's picture

Where there's a Smidgen, there's Hope
        maniacal laughter
        surrounded by idiots

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042146 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Recovery is here, just as Hussein told us.  The riots should help the future GDP!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:47 | 6042147 jpc578
jpc578's picture

Wouldn't be suprised if this number ultimately gets revised to a negative. If it wasn't for the massive boom in intellectual property this number would be negative already.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:47 | 6042149 agstacks
agstacks's picture

I think it's clear the formula we use is outdated and needs to be further adjusted to capture the growth we all know is occuring. \s

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042174 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Perhaps like intagables?  Oh wait, we did that!  Next! 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:47 | 6042151 surf0766
surf0766's picture

If only we gave more money to those sitting on their ass and doing nothing

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:56 | 6042204 RushRoolz
RushRoolz's picture

Ms. Pelosi? Is that you?

 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:11 | 6042259 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Like the banks and big multinational corps? I agree.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042154 Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

But isn't everything awesome?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042155 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
Credit Suisse: Greek state – revenues and expenditures

https://twitter.com/FGoria/status/593381780738179073/photo/1

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042157 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

Oh T Boone says oil going higher not demand right    Wow  Capx 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042158 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

but but bullshit bartiromo is "breathless" about apple's last qauarter. ishit for everyone, after all who really needs a job with QE foreva. . .

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:48 | 6042159 mcq
mcq's picture

The market knew EXACTLY what was coming.... MORE QE!!!!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042164 sopko16
sopko16's picture

Here's the day right here: Market opens down big. It trends down sharply into lunch. Fed is dovish for no at 2. It regains that and more. Haha.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:53 | 6042188 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Sounds like you have seen this movie a few times. I like the part at the end where the market goes parabolic at 15 minutes before the close. Classic. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042168 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Stocks should sky rocket on this news!  Collapse right around the corner!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:49 | 6042169 replaceme
replaceme's picture

What's the ticker symbol for the "economy" you're talking about - is it like Twitter?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:50 | 6042175 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

L M Fuckin' A O

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:51 | 6042181 MathWins
MathWins's picture

When big corporations ship jobs from the U.S. to cheap overseas labor, eventually people in the U.S. are going to run out of money to buy the big corporations' stuff.  

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:45 | 6042279 ThirteenthFloor
ThirteenthFloor's picture

You just figured that out ?! Ross Perot called that the great sucking sound back 1992, 22 years ago. Note when he says US healthcare is most expensive component to 'build a car'. Look at poppy bush laughing too.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkgx1C_S6ls

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:50 | 6042717 SERReal1
SERReal1's picture

I remember watching that debate when I was 18. I even voted for Perot. I guess he had too much common sense to be elected.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:52 | 6042186 praps
praps's picture

Roll on the Atlanta Fed Q2 forecast.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:52 | 6042190 C.A Ahmadine
C.A Ahmadine's picture

Should be BULLISH for stocks...more QE and bigger government cronyism.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:53 | 6042191 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Shit contracted by 5% if you take out that communist monster "Obamacare" shit.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:58 | 6042213 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Spot on and consider borrowing and debt and its worse 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:53 | 6042192 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Come on, can't they manufacture a 'good' number for us?  What the heck are we paying them for??

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:55 | 6042202 zappafan
zappafan's picture

it's official - we suck!  U.S.A! U.S.A!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:57 | 6042211 praps
praps's picture

Won't be needing any extra oil then.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:57 | 6042212 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

We need a fed gov mandate ... "borrow and buy shit, or pay a tax/fine/penalty to the IRS."

That will save us!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:08 | 6042249 zappafan
zappafan's picture

Don't worry they're working on that.  Google "negative interest rates" and replace IRS with "banksters."

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 08:58 | 6042216 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Good luck fuck nuts. When you disappear, new technology will emerge without a IPO Checklist. 

Welcome to your fallen world. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:03 | 6042233 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Q: What time is it when the economy is stagnant, real unemployment is high, equities in a huge bubble, and rates have only one direction to go?

A: It is a great time to buy a house.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:19 | 6042287 venturen
venturen's picture

because they never gone down in value...just ask any realtor

Thu, 04/30/2015 - 02:38 | 6046022 Kprime
Kprime's picture

you typo'd the 'R'.  It's a great time to buy a horse

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:04 | 6042234 Shitgum Suicide
Shitgum Suicide's picture

I call bullshit on this number. How in the world with 50 million on food stamps and 93 million not in the work force, can the GDP (Government Dependent Parasites) be only .2%?

I must be missing something!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:06 | 6042243 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

SO MOAR THEN? shocker.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:08 | 6042247 Shitgum Suicide
Shitgum Suicide's picture

Obama- if you haven't heard we ain't in the economy saving business. We're in the economy killing business. And cousin, business is a boomin!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:09 | 6042252 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

If more gay wedding cakes and gay wedding flowers are forced to be delivered, GDP would skyrocket.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:09 | 6042253 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Watch the motherfuckers lose everything. They will probably use their own nail gun to cover the tracks. Just look into the insurance policy. Don't give them a dime. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:11 | 6042258 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Economy grew over the last two years because of Barry-care. 

 

So "line up and die" overpriced, yet free healthcare is the economic engine of the US.

 

Any MOAR riots to create Barry to distract from the fuckup job you have done to the economy?  You fucking asshole!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:11 | 6042260 gmak
gmak's picture

"In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt."

But, but, the stock market is a discounting mechanism. Looking back at how the SP500 has done over the last month, I would suggest (snicker) that in 5 months we will see an economy on VIAGRA for exactly one month.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:13 | 6042264 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

Cloudy skys can have an effect, that's probably what is was.

Converse is true in SoCal. 

 

Thu, 04/30/2015 - 02:29 | 6046014 Kprime
Kprime's picture

so let me understand, cloudy skys, lower GDP, but socal has clear skys so their economy is to the moon. 

And now I think I know
What you tried to say to me
How you suffered for your sanity
How you tried to set them free

They would not listen
They're not listening still
Perhaps they never will

Don McLean - Starry Starry Night Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:19 | 6042286 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

so can we now stop saying the 'market' is a Leading Indicator, and take it out of LEI along with 'sentiment'....these are now and have been at best a near term lagging indicator...."i feel great, my last quarter 401k statement was good"

 

strong dollar....such old news, high paid people are 'surprised'????   highest % gain in over 20 years vs currecny basket, and 'whocuddaknowd'?   

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:22 | 6042291 BustainMovealota
BustainMovealota's picture

You know the economy is shit when they can't even spin the numbers to look good.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:23 | 6042294 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Why are we not counting the drug sales and prostitutes. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:28 | 6042300 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

All defense/war stocks are up.

So is more war the answer?

We need to invade some more folks?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:25 | 6042307 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

That CONSENSUS chart is trying to tell us something !!! Perhaps the collective thinking is not honest. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:29 | 6042318 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Ah, feel the crushing weight of all the folks crushed under the weight of ZIRP, starved of income on savings/bond portfolios for almost 7 years.  Feel the power of increasing rules and regulations, crushing costs of healthcare and rent/home prices that keep rising faster than wages by central bank design.  Oh, that inflation feels so good!  If college only cost $200,000 per year, everything would be great!

Nice job central planners.  TIme to do some more.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:29 | 6042332 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Pensions to be cut in half soon.

Oh my!!!

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:08 | 6042363 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Don't even get me started.  Imagine being the poor guy running a pension plan who assumed that bonds would return 4-6% a year.  There was no model that EVER assumed interest rates could stay at ZERO for 7 years and counting.  The underfunding is a disaster and yet another UNINTENDED consequence of these policies few are focusing on at this point.  The negative costs of ZIRP and QE are multiplying as the years go by and the benefits are few at this point.

Don't worry though, there will be MOAR.  The people running central banks were all classmates and their books have to be right, they just have to be, despite what real world experience is screaming.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 11:06 | 6042797 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Just wait until equities have 75+% shaved off...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:28 | 6042322 iofera
iofera's picture

Zeroes need to stock up on gold and silver so they'll be ideally positioned for the next time precious metals gap down even further.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 13:11 | 6043256 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

Bob pissing yourself lately .

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:28 | 6042323 F.A. Hayek
F.A. Hayek's picture

If I had a stagnating economy, it would look like this one.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:32 | 6042339 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So S&P up +50 today then.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:34 | 6042348 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Only green from here.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:39 | 6042374 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Absolutely.  Takes an interest rate increase off the table for another few years, minimum.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:39 | 6042378 venturen
venturen's picture

well the FED is buying oil futures...that should bring us out

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:40 | 6042382 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

All the rags seem to be pushing consumer spending, reuters and NYT blaming precipitation and Bloomberg noting that it's '70% of the economy.'  If '70% of the economy' grew at a greater rate than print, then clearly something is very wrong with the other 30%.  Further, if the weather meme doesn't pan out for Q2 and consumer spending is depressed for other reasons...

 

This isn't just a below expectations print.

 

Fed policy makers are expected to remain cautious about when they will make their long-awaited move to begin raising short-term interest rates from near zero. -NYT

 

Cautious is back, buy stawks.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:41 | 6042388 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

http://www.shadowstats.com/commentaries

No. 714: March Durable Goods Orders, Median Household Income, New- and Existing-HomeSales     April, 24th, 2015

• Both Nominal and Real First-Quarter 2015 GDP Face Contraction, But Headline Downturn May Await the First Revision
• Consensus Forecasts Never Catch Economic Downturns, Yet the Consensus Outlook Is Weighted into the Initial GDP Estimate
• Real Durable Goods Orders Confirmed Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Signaling a Second-Quarter GDP Decline and Formal Recession
• Household Income Declined Sharply in March
• Existing-Home Sales Fell at Annualized 7.2% (-7.2%) Pace in First-Quarter 2015
• Unstable Plunge in New-Home Sales Data Amidst Continued and Protracted Stagnation
Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:47 | 6042402 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

OK, so crash already. I've been prepping for nearly six years and I'm fucking ready.

Wait, what? You mean I should enjoy being ass-raped every single day by sales tax, gas prices (plus tax) that are continually manipulated higher despite there being massive oversupply, property taxes, fees, higher prices (actually paid $2.22 for a dozen large eggs at Wal-Mart the other day; same dozen were $1.44 at Aldi's. Anyone notice that Wal-Mart hasn't advertised "lower prices" in more than two years?), more regulations, a 1040 that's impossible to decipher without the help of an accountant, insurance fees, worker's comp payments, and, all of the other impediments to running (ruining) a business?

There's never been a better time to (choose one) buy a house, start a business, shoot yourself in the head twice with a nail gun.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:44 | 6042406 CHC
CHC's picture

What time does Obama appear on TV to tout how awesome the American economy is doing due soley to his personal efforts?  Should be any time now...

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 09:49 | 6042439 Duude
Duude's picture

Annualizing 1/2 a trillion trade imbalance.  They send us products, we mint more pictures of dead presidents to keep them happy.

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:00 | 6042495 BrokusDickusMaximus
BrokusDickusMaximus's picture

What I want to know is the exchange rate for my FRN to the new currency. Whether it's the Amero, GWO credit unit, SDR note or whatever they bring in to replace the dollar. Is the rate going to kill my pillow case full of American fiat or will there be parity. My PMs will still be here but, what about the cash I keep on hand? After the economic collapse they're going to bring out the digital credits, that is going to happen. The. 01% are stacking pm and cash. Is it going to be a 1:1 or are they stocking the hell out of fiat because the dollar will be reduced severely. From billionaire to millionaire over a long weekend and bank holiday. The other 99.9 are fucked either way. After the Mad Max period and the survivors are left to deal with, what happens then?

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:09 | 6042539 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

1:1 will never happen (because there would be no point in bringing out a new currency). If you want to know how many new dollars you'll get for your old FRNs, I think a good estimate can be achieved by taking 1 and dividing it by infinity.  

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:04 | 6042516 Badself
Badself's picture

LOL.... Supp wit you gangsta's always thinkin the worst... Just think the S&P will breach 3K and it shall. 

Wed, 04/29/2015 - 11:02 | 6042771 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Without the $122B inventory build, GDP would have been -2.6%.Fuck the lying FED. Next the IMF will step in with SDR's. The system wil still collapse . It is slowly spiraling out of control. The great reset commith.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!