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Dollar-nado Sparks Market Turmoil In April
If you were long AAPL, Bonds, Small Caps, Trannies, or Silver in April (or The Dow since 2014).... this is for you...
Great news today on wage costs sparked the initial wave of liquidity-addicted selling which then accelerated this afternoon as headlines from Iran hit...
By the close, Small Caps were worst on the day from The FOMC statement...
And on the week... Small Caps are ugly, Dow and S&P down but holding on for now...
And for April...
Biotechs buggered... (closed below its 100DMA to Feb lows) - down 14.3% from highs 5 daya ago!
Apple anxiety... (closed below its 50DMA) dow over 8% from highs..
Twitter Twatted... -24% from pre-earnings early release...
The dollar dropped, led by more EUR strength (back over 1.1250 today!)...
Treasuries blew higher in yield early on as it seemed the "rate hike meme" trade was back and everything was sold. But once stock selling accelerated, bonds rallied and ended close to unchanged...
All commodities are up on the week still but gold and silver were clubbed like baby seals around the data release this morning...
* * *
For the month of April:
- The dollar ended a 9 month streak with a 3.5% drop in April (most since April 2011)
- The Euro is up 4.3% in April (most sicne April 2011) ending that 9-month streak
- Biotechs ended a 6 month streak with a 7.3% plunge in April (most since April 2014 - Yellen warning)
- WTI Crude rose 24.8% in April (the most since May 2009)
Notable selling in Treasuries and curve steepening with the long-end around 23bps higher in April...
The dollar had its worst month in 4 years - led by EUR strength following Draghi's dare...
And despite the dollar weakness, gold ended flat, silver down but copper jumped on China QE and oil just went up because everything's normal again...
Finally for 2015, The Dow dropped back into the red and Trannies hit new lows for the year...
Everything has recoupled as Oil soars...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Yellen is Stallone; Obama is the guy in the chopper; Everyone on CNBC is the lady hanging from the rope...
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LNKD down 17% after earnings. What a POS.
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Interesting point actually.
Support can become resistance where
"Resistance is Futile.
"Control is an illusion..." - Days of Thunder
If this keeps up Obutthead will have to sign an executive order banning reality.......
"If this keeps up Obutthead will have to sign an executive order banning reality......."
Yeah right. POTUS has all the power. "The American People" haven't been aware of what is going since... ever? Since when?
"Reality" ended the day Americans began to believe "I got mine and fuck you" is any way to behave in society. Who wants to live in a place where people are left to die on the roadside and the bodies are eaten by packs of dogs. You want it 21st century USA and you're going to get it.
"Remember! Reality is an illusion, the universe is a hologram, buy gold, bye!"
Quote from the pyramid himself
Bill Cypher
gravity falls
All this is just the table setting for the synthetically engineered "American Spring" to come this year, so go wash your hands and get ready for dinner.
Hah, let's see how that would work out. NRA Rambos: 100% casualties, Police: 0 casualities.
Now if we're talking NRA Rambos versus helpless schoolchildren then my bet is on the NRA Rambos.
You will be crying like a pussy, begging your local militia to protect you when the capping begins. But you've already pissed off every gun owner in the area! Classic.
“Lost Potential Gain” from R.E.M.’s “So. Central Rain”
Did I buy more calls? Well, I’m bracing for a fall
These patterns of congestion are scaring me away
The QQQs could bend, your profits wash away
If the Committee can’t deliver on the Fed’s pipedream
I'm sorry
At least don’t use your margin account, your line’s all drawn
And wise men build their stance upon the hawks
And I’d like to follow suit
But I see your order’s sent, the confirmation’s in
Go find yourself another broker, this choice isn't mine
I'm sorry
Did I hedge with vol? A clerk just sold your calls?
A quivering voice with questions on my answering machine today
But since you rang, the situation’s grim
Go build yourself another position, it’s too late this time
I’m sorry, I’m sorry …
It's hard to believe that people like you folks can exist these days but this site is proof that idiots are still out there in full force. You people just can't accepet that President Obama, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen have been an absolute godsend for the economy due to your sickening and pathetic racism and antisemitism. I'd like to update you all on a little fact and that is that the Nazi party died in 1945. The Nazi party is over folks. Take your stupid guns and ram them up your ass and pull the trigger.
You must believe everything that you are told by the MSM. I am sure you think the housing recovery is sustainable too. Go back to riding your unicorns...
Preach it like a 15 week old troll
fuck off mister nebbish...
Got to be someone on the other side of that trade
+1 for rustling jimmies
"Compassionateconservative" HAHAHA... they still exist? I thought that theme worked 2x for Bush and got shelved with Obama? Satire at its best.
I take it you must have bought the top ?????
Best to sit and look like a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt!
By what measures have they helped the economy?
Helped as in, "let me help you down the stairs".
Maybe there's something to that ' ... go away in May " thingy
Stimpy Scream
Tomorrow is May!
Oh My...
Quite frankly, I'm tired.
I'm about to tune out of everything, and quite possibly ZH. Fuck it.
The coil-breakout-reversed, one of the strongest technical reversal patterns, is occurring right now, in AAPL as well as the broad indices; my screens suggest possible major trouble in the immediate equity road ahead:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=aapl&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=7
Not everything but a large list of things got funky four minutes before close... They jacked it so it wouldnt close on lows. Minute 56 adjustment. Markets were heading lower got jerked to rise and then went flat... Showed in lots of charts. While my charts of unassociiated acted more normal to closing upon their paths.
I caught that !!!!
Baby seals heads got smacked!
All of the manipulation is just in your head. Nothing new to see here, move along. /sarc.
And remember to take your Lithium.
E-trade Baby gets spanked.
"Gartman long" on Apple point of chart = ROFLMAO!
Are oil and Iran related?
The Crash [cough, cough], sorry, Reset will come.
But not before TPTB have their assets and numerology lined up, and their Bugout Resorts fully prepped and stocked. Until then... Must hold on.
Note to self: Keep dancing, smile & wave... Stay close to the Exit and Lifeboats, w/o being conspicuous. Dibs on primo lifeboat seats.
I love the way a little "price discovery" pulls the Zero/Hedge clan together...
since the economy is below zero net value...let's see how that works
So, where have the Silver Bears been?
And where's Jim Sinclair been?
And where have the Peak Oil pundits been hidin'?
According to The Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11569329/Jeremy-Warner-Negative-interest-rates-put-world-on-course-for-biggest-mass-default-in-history.html
What makes today’s negative interest rate environment so worrying is this; to the extent that demand is growing at all in the world economy, it seems again to be almost entirely dependent on rising levels of debt. The financial crisis was meant to have exploded the credit bubble once and for all, but there's very little sign of it. Rising public indebtedness has taken over where households and companies left off. And in terms of wider credit expansion, emerging markets have simply replaced Western ones. The wake-up call of the financial crisis has gone largely unheeded.
The combined public debt of the G7 economies alone has grown by close to 40 percentage points to around 120pc of GDP since the start of the crisis, while globally, the total debt of private non-financial sectors has risen by 30pc, far in advance of economic growth.
One by one, all the major central banks have joined the money printing party. First it was the US Federal Reserve. Then came the Bank of England and later the Bank of Japan. Just lately, it’s the European Central Bank. Now even the People’s Bank of China is considering the “unconventional” monetary support of bond buying. Anything to keep the show on the road. It’s what Chris Watling of the consultancy Longview Economics has termed the “philosophy of demand at any cost”. A crisis caused by too much debt has been fought with even more of the stuff.
Many would contend that it is central bank money printing itself which is the primary cause of today’s low interest rate environment. Up to a point, it’s a view that is hard to argue with, for that is indeed the whole purpose of QE – to depress the yield on government bonds to the point where investors are forced to seek higher risk alternatives.
Other contributory factors include “financial repression”, where ever more demanding solvency regulation forces banks and insurers to hold more bonds, whatever the price. Alternatively, some part of the explanation may be down to QE having starved the repo market of the bonds it needs as collateral, even if most central banks have arrangements to lend the stock back to markets for these purposes.
All this official interference has no doubt influenced negative yields. Yet it also raises a deeper question, which is whether central banks are the primary cause of the collapse in interest rates, or whether they are merely accommodating wider forces in the global economy that they are powerless to influence - persistent sluggishness in demand and productivity growth.
What’s cause, and what’s effect? In a speech last year, Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England, argued cogently that central banks are merely responding to these deeper forces. The natural, or equilibrium, rate of interest required to keep growth and inflation at a particular level is simply a lot lower than it used to be, he insisted. To judge by the markets, it may even have turned negative.
There is some support for this view in the way markets have responded to QE. Analysis by Longview Economics found that bond yields actually rose during periods of QE by the US Federal Reserve, and fell when it stopped, the reverse of what you might expect if you think it is the unlimited buying power of the central bank that is causing the interest rate to fall.
Rates would rise during periods of QE because investors expected it to have a positive impact on economic growth, and therefore the equilibrium rate of interest, and then fall once it stopped because the stimulus had been withdrawn. Call it “secular stagnation” - the idea popularised by former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers - if you like, but whatever it is, it's a particularly unhappy place to be. For all kinds of reasons, advanced economies, and perhaps emerging ones too, seem to have run out of productivity-enhancing growth and therefore need constant infusions of financially destabilising debt to keep them going.
The flip side of the cheap money story is soaring asset prices. The bond market bubble is just the half of it; since most other assets are priced relative to bonds, just about everything else has been going up as well. Eventually, there will be a massive correction, in which creditors will suffer sickening losses.
Nobody can tell you when that moment will arrive. We live in an “extend and pretend” world in which economies pathetically fight between themselves for any scraps of demand. One burst of money printing is met by another in an ultimately futile, zero-sum game of competitive currency devaluation. As if on cue, along comes another soft patch in Britain’s economic recovery, with first-quarter growth quite a bit weaker than expected. Like a constantly receding horizon, the point at which UK interest rates begin to rise is pushed ever further into the future. It's like waiting for Godot. When Bank Rate was first cut to 0.5pc in response to the financial crisis, markets expected rates to start rising again in a year. Six years later, Bank Rate is still at 0.5pc and markets still expect them to rise in a year. In Europe it’s not for four years.
Both Keynsian and monetary economics seem to be in some kind of end game. What comes next is anyone’s guess.
let me know when the vix moves like 2 points...in this game of 3 card monty
Spot FX was driven by German Bunds and overall the price action was NASTY.
LNKD -$50 on a NYSE stock - ARE YOU NASTY?
YELP -23% on a NYSE stock. ARE YOU NASTY?
Has any of you ZH geniuses ever tracked Dennis Gartman's stock, currency and PM calls?
I really don't really follow him but it seems he is continually wrong and a perfect contra indicator.
But what I am really wondering is how does then man keep solvent with all those (I assume ) leveraged losses; one can easliy ascertain that he does provide himself with sufficent food and sufficent strong drink from observing the man's corpulent body and bulbous face?
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