This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Last Time Initial Jobless Claims Were This Low Was The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble
Initial jobless claims have been worse than expected for the last 2 weeks but remained below the magical 300k level, so it was only appropriate that this week all the great economic news of late - record plunge in US macro disappointments and a dismal 0.2% GDP print - would be met with the lowest claims print in 15 years. At 262k (against a 290k expectation), initial claims has only been lower once - the week of April 14th 2000 - which just happened to mark the top of the Dot-Com bubble. While this is great news, we do note that a rolling average of Texas Jobless claims shows the improving trend has stalled.
Outlier or new trend?
But a rolling average of Texas Jobless claims shows the improving trend has stalled...
Perhaps most worrying is this... the last time we were this low - only once in history, marked the week of the top of the DotCom bubble in 2000....
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 12139 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
28,000 fewer claims than expected - panic sell all your gold immediately!!!!
Everything is SO AWESOME!!
Now raise rates..
The Last Time Initial Jobless Claims Were This Low
You can't claim unemployment when you lose a 29.5 hr/wk job. This is a trick.
There's no one left to file a claim. That's why it's low.
Employment is a lagging indicator.
It usually improves right into the first couple months of a recession...
Out my office window in downtown Houston, without walking to the other side of the building...I count 29 cranes that are building high rise somethings (I look toward the Galleria from downtown). They keep building. When they finally take the cranes down...there will be a lot of construction workers in Houston hitting that line. Since Houston is 1/6th of all new office development in the US...it might get interesting.
So far...nothing is stopping...on the ground in Houston, it doesn't even appear to be slowing down. There's even new ground breaking happening to keep the construction party going....Houston almost looks like a Chinese city if you just go by crane count.
If you lose a part-time job and are available to take a full-time job, you are eligible for UI, at least in Texas. http://www.twc.state.tx.us/news/efte/ui_law_coverage_issues.html#pt_ft_e...
Z Future is so bright, I'm already wearing my shades -
Oh I've got on my welding helmet!
This is gonna hurt.
Outside of politicians trying to look good, who believes these bogus unemployment figures? No one.
close to Lehman I am sure
sure doesn't feel like 2000....stores still closing in my area
Thats just an illusion, all is well just trust them!
Noticed a new trend locally. Converting empty malls into medical offices.
and Maserati dealerships.
Closed stores must have severe plumbing problems.
The inverse correlation in that last graph is so impressive that I have concluded with 100% certainty it is the only metric guiding FED decision making.
Like this statistic even matters anymore. The economy is running on a skeleton crew with 50% of the working age population out of a full time job. They will also never say that 90% of the jobs people have taken since 2009 make them ineligible to file for unemployment.
You don't file for unemployment when you lose or quit your 15 hour waitress job for another.
The only job opportunity in my area is driving for Uber. Plenty of people who can't afford a car paying those who can $3-$8 for a quick trip when it's raining. The drivers are either desperate or really bad at math to keep doing this when whatever they "earn" is lost in gasoline and car depreciation.
You also get rejected for unemployment if you didn't make enough money from your prior job or two in the prior 6 quarters.
How do you think I know this??
Another fraud on the American sheep by the most dishonest administration in American history!
Amazing how each report says the exact opposite of the ones that proceeded it, isn't it? By now people should realize these reports are all designed like that to create trades. This report is exactly as I predicted it would be after yesterday. And it is bullshit. The next report that comes out is going to be a horror show. This is corrupt people trying to create volatility for their trades.
Gold $1180 to $1210. Going on for so long I've lost track.
There's nobody left to lay off and file for claims. Everybody is either out of the work force or on .gov control....er, I mean assistance.
Except that I don't see a buble anywhere. S&P is a bit hot, I grant you, but not dotcom bubble hot. The housing sector? Nope. Financial? Nope. 8 months ago I might have said energy. Pop-nope.
If someone in D.C. cared, they might find this a nice time to drop coporate taxes.
So all time high levels of private, corporate, AND public debt do not a bubble make? Gazillion$ of derivatives? Stocks at inflated PEs? ZIRP/NIRP (inverse of bubble)?
Everything is just peachy.
The only "debt" bubble that's in any way attached to jobs is education (revolving debt is DOWN), and there is no jobs bubble in education.
Never in American history have these economic numbers been so misleading and made up. Well, at least until next week.
The low jobless claims # is clearly the fault of the Jew.
Non-sequitur Zero Hedgers, of all people, can appreciate this fact.
There are actually a few grains (perhaps more...) of truth in your sarcasm.
So this is manipulated chart of the day that dropped Gold price. Thanks. It's 859 AM and My day is completed. See you all again on Friday.
Doesn't there come a point with +98 million not counted in the work force, 9 million on unemployment and 8 million on disability where so many people aren't working that those losing jobs can't continue going up? With that said these numbers are pure BS. After yesterdays efforts the PPT needed an easier day....See what tomorrow brings with the BLSBS. Perhaps the Banksters needed to squeeze the shorts early in the week and the new longs late in the week.....Criminals
we need more "migrants" to keep it all going..just ask obuma & crony DC..those migrants never file claims
blacks are mad as they feel the pressure from migrant job takers but most of them cannot see who got their jobs..and who made it all possible, surely not a black president and dem & gop congress..
Baltimore today is the aborted child of the great society & open borders and wall street off shoring jobs.
traitors -but then again ,what fucking difference does it NOW make????
I don't think the Claims data matters as much in this cycle. In previous cycles when the trough/recovery was sharp and "real" the claims data reflected reality. In this cycle, you had the 99-weekers dropping off which was touted as the start of recovery. Now the companies have laid off all the people they can lay off, so claims should naturally drop to some level reflecting "friction" for the remaining employed.
If the participation Rate suddenly turned I would be a believer.
Oh - not since dot.com bubble. Shame, I would have said not since LEHMAN!
Around here in the north west there are hiring signs at all the big stores, and a lot of smaller ones too. Don't know if true demand is there to support it, but they are hiring a lot.
Great, now I know why stawks are at all time highs. More champagne and caviar!