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Atlanta Fed Cuts Q2 GDP Forecast To +0.8% After Construction Spending Crunch
Just as we warned earlier, the April data is not suggesting the kind of post-weather Q2 bounce in economic growth that everyone is praying for (or not if you're long stocks). On the heels of this morning's tumble in construction spending, The Atlanta Fed forecasts second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment to collapse 20%, leading to a mere 0.8% Q2 GDP growth estimate (dramatically below consensus hope expectations of 3.3% growth).
They nailed it in in Q1...
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Spoilsports
There are roughly 1/2 the basements being dug/foundation starts being laid (for those areas w/out basements) now in many parts of the country (single family homes) compared to exact same time last year.
There are some busy areas, and multiple/multiunit has done better (though apartments are slowing, too, though not at the same deceleration YoY).
Must be that Fed Reserve aided "price discovery."
Besides, James Altucher is now being deemed a "financial/market expert" by some mainstream financial media, so it's really time to short everything (that's in Book of Revelations).
your "6 wise men" had a good insight track?
rubin & summer memo to self: time to rig some upcoming economic data
NO SHIT! Gonna have to take the Atlanta fed out for well needed R&R!
What do u say bill Clinton's gulf underage sex slave island? Nothing like that blackmail economy!
They underestimate and will surprise to the upside.
Hardly dood. Atlanta Fed was the ONLY group remotely close on the Q 1 number. The others - water boys - way over estimated.
But stocks like this. (Until bankruptcy of individual names of course).
They've taken off...again...
So this means that inventory overhang we accumulated in Q1 minus estimated Q2 GDP is now 1.1 % GDP for Q3.
Which means we have to have a 1.1% GDP for Q3 just to break even to begin growth...
or fall off the cliff and add that 1.1 % overhang to the downside for even more downside deseleration momentum on the downside contraction of the GDP at below zero!
In other words though that .8% GDP Q2 estimate is still in contraction by that overhang of 1.1% GDP even if above zero just because if the Q1 inventory overhang!
Because we just HAD to stuff Q1 GDP inventory channels to pretend it was not contracting at 2.6% but instead pretending GDP grew a measly .2%
If only they could manipulate data. Wait......
Who do you believe as to the underlying economy? The fed, the atlanta fed reserve, or stawks?
The tech in me likes to give the engineer in me all kinds of shit.
But to put it simply as to ur question on a topic such as the trust in the Underlying economy ..... Which I'm not sure what u mean as of that question really..... are we talking rigged or?
But if ur saying getting s judge in the economy and where we are in the underlying of it and what is my gauge on what kind of economy it is and where we are in the cycles of things... And what problems even if good are affecting it. It is a very complicated ballet.
Grass roots up is usually best but one has to be cautious with that perspective as to the general conditions around am individual might not always give them a clear larger picture of the entire economy. Plus there is the macro worlds out too.
I dont trust just one thang .... Never would... It's like thinking all snow is the same and it isn't and now only down to the snowflake but down to the factors around the snowflake as environment.
Perspectives can be difficult as to judge by as they can provide illusions or perhaps the unseen due to perspective or timing of said perspective ...so those must be considered also... And also the mind... Have always add an error rate just because we are human. Daddy use to have that number. It was over 20%. He had it calculated out ...forget what it was exactly but rounding down 20% is fair idea.
It helps to feel around as a blind man when a general look around isn't giving u enough details as to why u hate this economy so much!!!,
They are already cutting the forecast 2 days into their model for Q2? This will not end well.
If we use the spread of 2.2% that occurred in their Q1 forecast model (from a high of 2.3% to 0.1% in the final model), we will see -1.3% growth in Q2.
I wonder what Q1 will get revised to......
of course it will end well. they are killing TLT to drive sheeples into stawcks.
the invisible hand will continue to levitate the market no matter how bad the numbers get. they cannoit allow reality to intrude on their illusions.
how can they forecast the 2nd quarter based on a March report?
Hello. April report. But great to see that shitty Q 2 number! Good for stawks. And note the glee with which the shitty Q 1 number was reported on CNBS. They loved it.