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Muted May-Day Volume Sparks Hey-Day For Stocks
We are up today because we were down yesterday... and every data item today was completely abysmal! Only one way to play...
With most of the rest of the world enjoying "May-Day", volumes were dismal as it seemed the machines had no one to play with... S&P e-mini volume 30% below recent (weak) average! And half yesterday's
Happy May Day, from your Federal Reserve! #FedHistory pic.twitter.com/BlJXongaft
— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) May 1, 2015
Which can only mean one thing!!! From Wednesday's FOMC, the S&P shows that The Fed knows what it is doing and closes green just
All surging today, led by Trannies but notice Small Caps went nowehere from the opening ramp...
On the week - eveything was red but Small Caps stood out - worst week in over 6 months
What Really Matter Though!! Dow 18,000; S&P 2,100; and Nasdaq 5,000 - Mission Accomplished into a sports-frenzied weekend
There was some ugliness... Flash Crashes this afternoon...
$LLY just flash crashed - all exchanges participated pic.twitter.com/IYFq0vFwty
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) May 1, 2015
Social Media Carnage...
But today everyone loved Biotechs...
Credit markets were considerably less excited than stocks today
Treasury yields were extremely ugly this week - 3rd worst week of the year...
The dollar's early weakness today rebounded as the buying frenzy ensued in stocks... still a notably weak week for the USDollar. (4th worst week in 2 years)...
Commodities were mixed today with gold and silver smacked early on (and crude) but copper just kept soaring as China reflation is back in vogue (gold ended lower for the 3rd week in a row) - it's pretty clear what time of day to be trading...
Copper's biggest week since 2011...
Some context for all of this...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: WTF! A new 6 year low in US Macro and Fwd EPS stagnant
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total fucking bullshit....
fucking joke.......
Not a joke... it's a Great Recovery! thank you Obama! thank you Grandma cat Lady Fed Lady...
I give
Bullish
Bullish
Wait. How can there be a flash crash if Sarao is in custody?
Had lunch w/ relatives and shrugged my shoulders when asked why we were up big today, saying “you don’t really want to know.” If forced to tell the truth, I’d have said: with a) the ‘big” Jobs report a week away; b) more risky stocks down sharply from highs; c) low volume FRI; and, above all: d) all 4 major indices ending Thurs at or near major daily moving averages, a strong bounce was a near inevitability in a algorithm controlled, central bank fueled market. Would have gotten the same look as when they were told the truth about Santa Claus.
Ha...same deer in the headlights look I get when telling friends and family to move their 401K's into cash funds and out of equities these days.
Have a feeling this might have been a dead cat bounce today. Sold this coming weeks 87 calls earlier this morning against the 82.50's picked up yesterday, and boy did the value of those things drop quickly...50% even while we were in a tight range after the sale. Not much conviction for a further ramp. Picked up some cheap 91 calls for the just in case they ramp it next week scenario to set up a bear call play if the bounce is decent and warants. Finished it all off with a 85 Long Put/80 Short Put vertical spead for next week in case they dump the market again. Hopefully that covers the bases. This coming weeks call prices were awefully cheap to be suggesting a big bounce on Monday but we shall see. Put premiums were pretty steep thus the spread to absorb some of the shock. Could be bluffing with the premiums being so disparaging but given that we had a decent rebound day, typically call premiums would be strong if there was conviction of more upside. Still, I'm not going to discount a rip your face off rally. If they flat line it for the week to soak the extrinsic, think I'll take up knitting. Feeling less and less like a trader these days and more like a "strangler" pun intended.
Tough trading these days...got to move quick, good luck to ya and good weekend.
Same sentiments to you. (Based on your move yesterday, I rode the TNA train today from 83 to 84, like you didn't feel confident it'd go further, plus I always end in cash)
> "plus I always end in cash"
I learned my lesson on that one over the years - I sold half my silver and half my GDX today near the highs. Need cash to play. I'm 50% cash and 50% SPY puts, SLV & GDX calls.
Sounds like the key ingredients for quite a refreshing cocktail should the Jobs report disappoint, good luck
What do you mean by "disappoint"? Do you mean disappoint as in a "bad" jobs report? or disappoint as in a "good" jobs report? hmm ehhh ya depends on your perspective.
Back in the mid-40s, before most of us were born, the Andrews Sisters had a hit with a lyric that went: "Accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative". In today's market, they'd be singin' "Attenuate the Positive."
Will not disappoint - one way or the other. All news - regardless of direction, et cetera is good for stawks. Remember last month when the dumb fuck S & P overnight minis trashed the Futures and when the PPT kicked in a major buy at 9:30 the S & P futures went to the moon?
where is the "crazy pills" vid? It should be on a loop
Mugatu has a new sweater line out for fall of 2015.
Stawks- Always Awesum!!
“Sarao, Nav” from Bob Dylan’s “Hurricane”
{Sorry for the length, but I couldn't resist giving this one a shot}
Big program trade leaks out to the CME floor, enter HFT’s for a quick windfall
Waddell & Reed’s traders in a pool of sweat, cry out “My god they sold it all!”
[CHORUS] Here comes the story of Sarao, Nav
The man the authorities are tryin’ to nab for something HFTs have done
Put in a prison cell in London so he can be their scapegoat to the world
Three algos prowling do analysts see, and another man named Sarao flashin’ orders mysteriously
“I didn’t do it” he says, and throws up his hands, “I was only fighting Citadel, I hope you understand
I saw them leaping over my stops, so I engineered a turnabout” But after he shuts his algo off,
traders’ eyes on their screens, with the red prices, flash-crashin’ in a hot-potato fight
Four in the afternoon they haul Sarao in, take him to his cell and set $7 million bail
Nanex looks through all the sells and buys, says "Wha’d you bring him in for? He ain't the only guy !"
Repeat [CHORUS]
Sarao could take Virtu on with just one hand, though he wasn’t ostentatious, sayin’ “Just call me ‘Nav’”
“It’s my job”, he’d say, “I can do it all day, and when the Merc is closed I explore better ways
to trick flash boys on price, and actually get filled once or twice”
But when they scanned the audit trail, he’s the only one they took to the jailhouse
Just one guy tradin’ with his mouse
All of Nav’s cards were marked in advance, with CFTC’s circus, he never had a chance
The FBI’s expert was some flash-boy-huggin’ prof, exchange officials kept their members’ names out
And to the DOJ he was just a market-rigger, wearin’ track pants while he pulled the trigger
And with no real smoking gun, the FBI said he was the one who did the deed
Not the firms with twice his speed
Nav Sarao was hit broadside with 5-yr old data, and guess who analyzed?
An HFT booster, with agendas miles wide, and financial media, they went along for the ride
How can the tactics of just one man create our current market sham?
To see that no big firms were blamed couldn’t help but make me feel ashamed
to live in a land where markets are a game
Now all the criminals with their fiber lines are free to ignite momentum and watch stocks rise
While Sarao sits brooding in a London Cell as Citi and Morgan spoof the opening bell
That’s the story of Sarao, Nav, but it’s still not over . . .
Remember in the "old" days when stocks went down on Heavy volume and then back up on light volume it was bearish?
what's "bearish"?
Bearish is a market condition for stocks that happens for a few minutes throughout the year. During this time one can expect stocks to retrace anywhere from $00.35-$00.50. After such terrible market conditions, stocks will typically rally on the order of 29-150%.
WTF is US Macro? Some fabricated BS to make charts look keen? HUH???? WTF is US Macro???