"Completely Absurd" To Think Greece Won't Default In May: Official

Tyler Durden's picture

Facing a pensioner rebellion and a looming €780 million payment due to the IMF on May 12, Greece’s back is now truly against the wall. Last Tuesday, Athens appears to have run out of cash, triggering an 8 hour delay in pension payments which left some pensioners walking away from ATMs empty-handed. This didn’t sit well with the country’s retirees who reportedly disrupted a state pension fund board meeting and demanded that cash reserves not be transferred to the central government as mandated by a decree that came down last month. 

Now, with a reshuffled negotiating team (characterized by less Varoufakis and more negotiating), PM Tsipras is racing to strike a deal on reforms that would allow the country’s creditors to disburse the bailout money Athens needs to pay… well, to pay its creditors (we’ll ignore the circular reasoning there for now). 

More from Bloomberg:

While talks have picked up pace in recent days, the two sides are still trying to bridge differences on stalled reforms. It isn’t yet clear that there will be enough progress to clinch a deal in time for the planned May 11 meeting of euro-area finance ministers, some officials warned.

 

“They’re working hard now and that’s what we’ve gained,” Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in the Hague. “But in the end we only look at the results and we’re not that far yet.”

 

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told his cabinet on Thursday he’s confident of closing a deal, even as his government sent conflicting signals on its willingness to agree on reforms required under the 240 billion-euro ($268 billion) bailout. Faced with debt payments totaling about 1 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund on May 6 and May 12, Greece hopes there will be enough progress in the talks by next week to allow the European Central Bank to restore liquidity access for the country’s cash-strapped banks…

 

Dijsselbloem said it was too early to say whether talks with Greece had reached a turning point. While there has been progress in terms of the process after Tsipras reshuffled the negotiating team, pushing aside Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, there is still a long way to go on the substance, a person familiar with the matter said, asking not to be named because the talks are private.

 

The official said that the Greek government’s economic assumptions are very optimistic, making it difficult to agree on the extent of fiscal adjustment measures the country must adopt to meet goals under its bailout.

Despite attempts by both sides to project an air of optimism, the stark reality seems to be that Greece will attempt, to the bitter end, to stick with its “red line” campaign promises as practicality, reality, and the economic suffering of the Greek populace seem to have taken a permanent back seat to Syriza’s desire to hold on to whatever political legitimacy the party has left. Meanwhile, some officials have now suggested that even if a deal were struck this weekend, there simply is no chance that Athens will make the payment due to the IMF on May 12.

Via Bloomberg:

Even if an agreement between Greece and international creditors reached, it would take weeks for the next aid tranche to be paid, Handelsblatt reports, citing people close to the government.

 

Greek government hoped to pay ~EU750m to IMF on May 12 with help of international creditors: Handelsblatt

 

It’s “completely absurd” to think money will be transferred by then, as “prior actions” by Greece would be required, approved by Greek parliament, even in the event of a deal: Handelsblatt

And here is Athens which appears to be re-adopting the now infamous “tax driver” approach:

  • GREECE NEEDS DEAL WITH CREDITORS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE: SPOKESMAN
  • GREECE RETAINS RED LINES IN NEGOTIATIONS: GOVT SPOKESMAN

So while things do not look particularly promising in terms of avoiding a Greek default in just 10 days' time, Athens can always (re)play the war reparations card. 

From Reuters:

German President Joachim Gauck expressed support on Friday for Athens' demands for reparations for the Nazi occupation of Greece in World War Two, even though the government in Berlin has repeatedly rejected the claims.

 

Gauck, who has little real power in Germany but a penchant for defying convention, said in an interview to be published in Saturday's Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that Germanyshould consider its historical responsibility to Greece.

 

"We are not only people who are living in this day and age but we're also the descendants of those who left behind a trail of destruction in Europe during World War Two -- in Greece, among other places, where we shamefully knew little about it for so long," Gauck said.

 

"It's the right thing to do for a history-conscious country like ours to consider what possibilities there might be for reparations."

 

Greece's demand for 278.7 billion euros ($312 billion) in reparations for the brutal Nazi occupation have mostly fallen on deaf ears, but some legal experts say it may have a case.

 

Many in Greece blame Germany, their biggest creditor, for the tough austerity measures and record unemployment that have followed from two international bailouts totaling 240 billion euros.

And although German economy minister and vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel recently called Greece's reparations claims "stupid", Merkel is striking a concilliatory tone ahead of WWII's anniversary:

Germans “have a special responsibility to deal in an aware, sensitive and knowledgeable way with what we perpetrated under Nazism."

 

"[We can't draw a line in the past] we see that in the debate in Greece and in other European countries, too."

 

“I fully understand [the] long-lasting wounds and concerns that there are in other countries.”

As we noted last month, Greece is expected to bring up the issue again and again with whatever tools it has in its hands. Until it decides to solve the issue in the courts.

For the Germans, it appears this topic is not going away anytime soon.

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GMadScientist's picture

Is it me, or do we have the makings of civil war developing in Greece as this prolongs?

(yeah, you thought "regime change" was only for Egypt and Libya)

agent default's picture

It is you.  There would be very strong telltale signs if something like that was going on.  The civiel war is brewing in the US.

winchester's picture
winchester (not verified) agent default May 2, 2015 12:05 PM

 

you elected a nigger twice in a row ... how the fuck can you make a civil war after this...

 

you already forsaken 7 years ago.

Stuck on Zero's picture

I am a firm believer in reparations.  The bankers, their children, and their children's children owe us trillions.

Macchendra's picture

If the gov default, EU must assault.

kliguy38's picture

Its deadman walkin......everywhere

remain calm's picture

Listen, GREECE WILL NOT DEFAULT. THE PONZI SCHEME CONTINUES. The SDR is not quite ready yet. China is not on board. The COORUPT, IMMORAL, ILLEGAL, GREEDY world leaders are not ready for PLAN B YET. HOLD ON THEY HAVE NOT YET EXTRACTED ALL THE WEALTH THEY WANT. 

Arius.'s picture
Arius. (not verified) remain calm May 2, 2015 12:35 PM

china is not on board ... lol

china was built to be on board ... what do you think how come it was developed that quickly and you got all that manufacturing moving out of us for tax benefits among other matters ...

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Anything to destroy the EURO.  Anything.  Seriously.  Anything.  

Putin takes control of the continent?  
Aliens invade and probe Merkel?
Greece develops an atom bomb and nukes themselves?  

Don't care.  Someone just end it. Please.  

Manthong's picture

Either that or a Chino-Russo-Brazillio-Indio co-op will bail out the Anglo-Germo-Belch bankers.

 

prefan4200's picture

"Greece’s back is now truly against the wall."

For what now, the 100th time?  Greece has been standing there with her back against the wall for what seems like forever.  Wake me up when something interesting happens.

MonetaryApostate's picture

At this point I believe it's safe to assume it's all going down the toilet soon & nations will soon be back where iwe were in 2009 -2011 (Rioting Everywhere Worldwide), because let's face it, the greed will never end, and you know it's true...  (The war on currencies & therefore the sovereignty of nations has just begun...)

http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/05/engineered-dependencies.html

pgroup's picture

It'll be interesting when she turns around and bends over while leaning on the wall.

Michail Barmpas's picture

May I wake you up then? To your big surprise Greece has found better friends in Germany than among you people. How much you bet Greece will never default? This is more than interesting, and it comes at the right time: http://www.dw.de/german-president-gauck-raises-prospect-of-world-war-two...

Arius.'s picture
Arius. (not verified) Macchendra May 2, 2015 12:33 PM

here is a summary of the drama which has been played through the last decade all over tv and newspapers, for starters greece is just 1-2% of EU economy.

 

initial Goldman loan to Greece to enter to EU in the amount of 2.5 billion, to make the numbers so to speak (see the video below ... even BBC had to say it, it was that obvious....)

 

2010 bailout - loan amount total of 50 billion (quite an increase from 2.5 but still more to go...)

2012 bailout - loan amount increase to 130 billion

August 2014 - total loan amount has reached 500 billion ... quite a jump from the initial few billions, all the game is about attacking bonds, raising the interest (because mr. market thinks so)... then VOILA by magic the loan increase couple of hunderds billions more, but no worries ... we will give you another loan so you can pay us back all these number with interest ... magic isnt it? 

 

These are not REAL loans to the economy ... it is just trading fake MONOPOLY MONEY

 

since August 2014 there have been NO MORE  "fake loans" to pay back the previous "fake loans" at a higher number, money from ECB, IMF or whoever ....

 

It has been squezing the stone to get REAL money .... turning greece upside down to get whatever pennies are left ... scrapping the barrel from cutting pensions, salaries, moving money in accounts from hospitals, state enterprises to Central Bank to pay IMF and ECB ... this until NOW .... after 7-8 months of scrapping there is nothing left ...

 

here is how all started ...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07-hA9DW-Po

 

ps just in case there is any confusion to the cause of the problems ... DIESSELBLOOM is blaming Varoufakis' personality ... that is the real problem ... never mind none had heard of him until the last couple of months...

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Didn't they teach you in Sabbath or Sunday School that the best kind of slavery is financial slavery?

Replace those awkward iron chains with fashionable Invisible chains.  Note that Predators are sharp & sly, Prey are not.  Nothing new.

Arius.'s picture
Arius. (not verified) Kirk2NCC1701 May 2, 2015 2:37 PM

true ... until the prey is you .... then is different i suppose

Mr. Lucky's picture

So, in short they have run out of other people's money.

Skateboarder's picture

We don't want their fake, shitty trillions. To be left alone without violent imposition of force is good enough.

StychoKiller's picture

Without being able to force cooperation at the point of a gun, WHO is gonna feed these parasites?

Arius.'s picture

.

winchester's picture
winchester (not verified) Stuck on Zero May 2, 2015 12:22 PM

they own you nothing because 1st of all a child is not responsible for his parents act.

then,  until today it is  vastly accepted that a son of XXX will do XXX as job, just like yyy's son will do yyy job as well.

 

thinking a poor XXXX man from poor XXX family can become what HE WANTS, just because he wants to, what we call in europ the equality of chance, is total bullshit.

 

chance = money, you have no money -> no aganda -> no help from outside.

 

a person who believe that electing a black in a white country would change the situation for the whole country is someone totally idiot who have serious lack of knowledge in human being behaviors.

 

when a poor/low person gain acces to higher levels, society stage/condition, the 1st thing he does is cutting the links with the under/where he comes from. it is a security move. it is true whitout any distinction of race/color basically, so i let you imagine with no educated blacks barbarians who grew without any male modele ( jailed/killed ) and concentrate in blocks like tribes.

 

after 7 years you still do not get that obama was pseudo elected  for blacks coz of the " yes we can" can what, put black in WH...? yes you did... did he make ANYTHING FOR BLACK CONDITION ?

 

LOL.

 

he is the best weapon seller of the whole presidencies.

 

the worst amercian president ever.

 

after 2008 he kept lying to the country.

 

in your country, " recovery" mean take people for dumbass. which, is...obviously, somehow so sadly true.

daveO's picture

"a person who believe that electing a black in a white country would change the situation for the whole country is someone totally idiot who have serious lack of knowledge in human being behaviors." So, you've met my relatives?/sarc/

Yes, the American population has been dumbed down to that point, by design. It took TPTB decades to get here. 
StychoKiller's picture

Meh, to achieve "peace in our time" is gonna take a "Woman's touch!" (is the /sarc really necessary here?)  :>D

German's picture
German (not verified) winchester May 2, 2015 4:25 PM

Mr. Winchester

I am absolutly with you.

 

 

 

 

oudinot's picture

Winchester-you are an ignorant, racist, stupid cunt.

winchester's picture
winchester (not verified) oudinot May 2, 2015 5:52 PM

no, i lived in africa more than a decade, i own my subject.

 

now i'm back i my own country, also from couple of years, i understand that some stuff cannot be politically "improved", instead, any political act decrease social interaction between humans.

 

you  are the ignorant that do not open you eyes and your mind enough to get the global picture, you stay focus because i  talk of blacks as niggers, nigger = negro = spanish word for black, nothing so serious until you are the black here, or... the scared whitey, the ear stick...list is long too. they also have their own vocabulary.

 

anyway, keep nourrishing piegons with bred sat on a bench waiting death to take you. prolly the best thing you can do for your country.

do not forget, hitlarry 2k16 ...

Calmyourself's picture

Some of his questions have merit.  American blacks voted 80+% for this President has he helped them cut their underclass chains of unemployment, fatherless households and welfare dependance?  No, he has not if anything he has made them more dependant, its not up for debate.  BO is thw worst thing since Lyndon Johnson for American blacks.

813kml's picture

Default in May and go away.

j reuter's picture
j reuter (not verified) GMadScientist May 2, 2015 5:52 PM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com

j reuter's picture
j reuter (not verified) GMadScientist May 2, 2015 5:53 PM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.jobs-review.com

Sailorgirl's picture

Home Profit System is a scam, beware! You will not get a product. It's a scam at the best.

Sailorgirl's picture

Home Profit System is a scam, beware! You will not get a product. It's a scam at the best.

Mister Delicious's picture
Mister Delicious (not verified) May 2, 2015 11:49 AM

don't default - repudiate, then leave the EU and get closer to the BRICS.

Soul Glow's picture

Which would start a banking crisis....

Mister Delicious's picture
Mister Delicious (not verified) Soul Glow May 2, 2015 12:39 PM

yeah.

kinda the point, man.

Soul Glow's picture

Roll 'em up, move 'em out!  Raw Hide!

They will roll the debt until the Greek Treasury has not but one euro left in it.  UNless they take what the Trioka has to offer which is worms and grit.

One And Only's picture

This is still going on? Greece being bankrupt. Has anything changed in 3 years?

Soul Glow's picture

Yeah the newly elected government ran on the premise they wouldn't cave to the Trioka's demands.  They have of course since they looted the shit out of pensions so NO nothing is different this time.

daveO's picture

Tsipras is a Communist, big C;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexis_Tsipras

Did they really believe that? Or, did they think he'd just take extortion to a whole new level? 

SilverDOG's picture

Tell creditors you will pay, when the banks show from where currency was derived.

 

Still waiting...

Blopper's picture

Greece will NEVER EVER default.

Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Missing a payment is one thing. But as we all know, defaulting is a totally different beast.

adonisdemilo's picture

There is absolutely no way that the Greek's will not be slaves until the end of time unless they tell the Troika fuck off.

Moving Varoufakis was a big mistake.

He appears to be an honest man, which is why TPTB don't like him.

Is the new guy working for TPTB, to negotiate with them until they bury Greece or is he working for the Greeks?

HenryHall's picture

Sadly, it looks increasingly likely that Greece is headed for an American-backed  military coup d'etat in the near future.

1967 all over again.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Maidan II, you Greek malakas!

You're screwed.  How do you take it... SF (Sodom) or LA (Gomorrah) style?

M.B. Drapier's picture

Meh, more brinksmanship. Missing a payment on May 12 would put Greece at the beginning of the one-month grace period before the IMF starts to treat Greece as being in really-for-serious default, right? Presumably Unnamed Source is hoping that a deal will be signed on the 11th and then will be rammed through the Greek parliament with the IMF countdown ticking away to encourage swift compliance.

B2u's picture

let's find Zorba...

Joebloinvestor's picture

Greece will promise the moon and sky and then NOT IMPLEMENT A FUCKING THING.